The Times of India
Table of Content
1. As Sheikh Hasina gears up to visit India, here’s what’s on the table between India and Bangladesh
April 04, 2017
Syed Munir Khasru
Background:
Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is set to visit India from April 7-10, 2017. There are talks of signing 17 agreements and MoUs between India and Bangladesh. This is the last official visit to India by Hasina before Bangladesh elections, therefore stakes are high for both sides. It is time to reflect on the progress made and remaining issues in Indo-Bangla relations since the historic visit of PM Modi in June 2015
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With Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina visiting India from April 7, 17 agreements and bilateral MoUs have been finalised. Almost two years into Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s historic visit to Dhaka, it is time to reflect on the progress made and issues yet to be resolved.
In the last five years, trade between the two countries has grown by more than 17% with two way trade at $6.8 billion in the fiscal year 2015-16. The trade is heavily in favour of India and Bangladesh imported goods worth $5.45 billion and exported $690 million. Concerted efforts are needed to narrow the gap.
For facilitation of trade and investment Bangladesh has dedicated two SEZs in its northwest, bordering India. Trade ties are troubled by poor road and rail connectivity. The four operational ‘border haats’ along the India-Bangladesh border have been successful, with trade worth $2,60,000 having taken place. However, there have been delays in the operationalisation of four more ‘border haats’ in Meghalaya, agreed upon during Modi’s visit.
Launch of trans-shipment operations combining riverine and land routes last year have enabled India to deliver goods through Bangladesh to Nepal and Bhutan in a third of previous time and reduced transport cost by almost half. After turning power surplus last year, India has been working with Bangladesh to double the capacity of existing transmission interconnects. There are plans to set up a third link for increasing cross-border electricity trade for widening the regional market as new generation capacities come up.
Currently, India provides Bangladesh with 2,600 MW of power. The new line is expected to wheel power from hydel projects proposed to be built in the northeast which can be shared with Bangladesh as well. India’s ONGC and Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation are in negotiation to build a 6,900 km long gas pipeline linking Bangladesh, Myanmar and northeastern states. There are ongoing talks of expanding energy cooperation to BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal) framework.
Cattle smuggling across the border has decreased, with seizure of cattle by BSF decreasing from 1.5 lakh in 2015 to 1.2 lakh in 2016 in south Bengal frontier, known as the cattle corridor of India. However, border killings of Bangladeshi civilians by BSF have not ceased, with four killed in February alone. Since 2015, a total of 77 people have been killed and 108 injured by BSF. Cattle, even if smuggled, can’t be worse than drugs, and fatal shooting of offenders is not justifiable when there are options for imprisonment, fines and confiscation.
Bangladesh has extended full cooperation to India for fighting insurgent groups along the border. During 2009-14 Bangladesh arrested at least 17 top leaders of various insurgent groups, with the surrender of eight more suspects. Some of the insurgents were also sent back to India.
Bangladesh and India are set to sign a five-year MoU for bilateral defence cooperation for joint initiatives in defence technology, research and maritime infrastructure development. Also on the cards is a $500 million line of credit by India to Bangladesh for purchase of military equipment. Some have questioned whether this deal is a response to the recent purchase of two submarines by Bangladesh from China. Given that India has a defence budget of around $50 billion and shops around the world, Bangladesh with a meagre defence budget of around $2.8 billion, with reliance mostly on Chinese built military hardware, should not be a concern for India.
While defence cooperation may be one of the major outcomes of the visit, bigger issues from the Bangladeshi point of view, such as the Teesta water treaty, are still at bay. Despite Modi’s pledge and assurances by mercurial Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee of a Teesta deal the water- sharing agreement is being stalled.
This is the last official visit to India by Hasina before Bangladesh elections, therefore stakes are high for both sides. After all the positive steps Hasina has taken for improving Indo-Bangla ties, if the Teesta issue continues to be unresolved, it will hurt her credibility with her own people.
Link: http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-edit-page/as-sheikh-hasina-gears- up-to-visit-india-heres-whats-on-the-table-between-india-and-bangladesh/
2. Cancelled Saarc summit exposes Pakistan’s foreign policy failure, whose root cause is its obsession with India
October 22, 2016
Syed Munir Khasru
Background:
The withdrawal of five out of seven neighbors of Pakistan from SAARC Summit in the aftermath of the terrorist attack in Uri, Kashmir exposes the total diplomatic failure of Pakistan, and necessitates a soul searching from their end since they have only themselves to blame for the isolation. The article is a call to Pakistan towards rethinking and overhaul of its foreign policy, diplomacy and leadership strategies.
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With five out of seven neighbours of Pakistan withdrawing from the Saarc summit scheduled to be held in Islamabad next month, the dismal failure of Pakistan’s diplomacy has been exposed. Saarc’s mechanism dictates that non-participation of any one member will result in cancellation of the summit. Yet five member nations officiated their withdrawal, showing how isolated Pakistan has become.
It’s time Pakistan does some soul searching, instead of playing victim to Indian conspiracy. Pakistan has only itself to blame for its failed diplomacy and leadership.
Pakistan failed to issue even a statement condemning the Uri attack, and the Indian leadership responded by adopting diplomatic means to isolate Pakistan. Bangladesh withdrew citing Pakistan’s interference in its internal affairs, related to Pakistan’s official expression of concern on Bangladesh’s judicial hanging of 1971 war criminals. Pakistan could have taken a cooperative stance to Bangladesh’s war tribunal initiative, by calling for adherence to international standards and norms while extending cooperation for a fair trial process. Instead, the incessant interventions from Pakistan have been uninvited and unnecessary.
Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan said recent intensification of terrorism has compromised the environment for a successful Saarc summit. Afghanistan’s boycott may have come as a shock to Pakistan, which hosts 1.6 million Afghan refugees.
Pakistan’s foreign policy failure stems from its obsession with India which makes it fight proxy wars in its neighbourhood. Pakistan had become a hurdle, in recent times, to South Asian integration initiatives like the Saarc motor vehicle agreement. Moreover, Pakistan failed to be a good host to Indian home minister Rajnath Singh in the Saarc home ministers’ meeting organised in Pakistan, which led Indian finance minister Arun Jaitley to skip the Saarc meeting of finance ministers in Islamabad. Finally, the Uri attack added fuel to the fire.
Being the Saarc host Pakistan could have played a positive role in easing acrimonious regional interactions, yet it chose not to. Pakistan has been accused by the international community of state sponsored terrorism and being a safe haven to militants. Pakistan’s policy of pick and choose for militants has infuriated its immediate neighbours. Afghanistan made an effort to refresh its relations with Pakistan when President Ashraf Ghani took office, yet very quickly tilted towards India for assistance suspecting Pakistan’s involvement in state sponsored terrorism.
The question arises, does cancellation of the Saarc summit really matter to Pakistan? The answer is both no and yes. South Asia analyst Ashok Malik has been quoted as saying it will have little practical impact on Pakistan but could push it closer to China. However, as other Saarc members move towards greater connectivity and economic cooperation, Pakistan’s economic aloofness can prove to be fatal in the long run. Neighbours have already started bypassing Pakistan, as with the Chabahar Port agreement between India, Iran and Afghanistan.
The worrying fact for Pakistan is the increasing attention of Saarc states to sub-regional blocs within South Asia. The two big names are: SASEC (South Asia Sub-Regional Economic Cooperation of which Pakistan and Afghanistan are not members but all other Saarc states are) and Bimstec. SASEC, acting as a mini-Saarc, has already implemented projects worth $6 billion in the region and aims to strengthen cross-border trade and transport networks. Moreover, amidst the cancellation of Saarc, Bimstec member states were invited to the Brics summit by India. This should hammer home some hard ground realities on Pakistan’s leadership.
Opposition leaders in Pakistan’s parliament have criticised the country’s weak diplomacy. The history of Pakistan is one of a complex civil-military relationship whereby where the actual levers of power are is a big question not only for foreigners but many Pakistanis as well. Unless the civilian leadership is empowered to make decisions independently and boldly, the country is likely to continue to suffer from the pitfalls of a foreign policy that is fragmented in vision and fractured in its mission, as evidenced by the failed Saarc summit and Pakistan’s regional isolation.
Link: http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-edit-page/cancelled-saarc-summit-exposes- pakistans-foreign-policy-failure-whose-root-cause-is-its-obsession-with-india/
3. Take Dhaka tragedy as a wake-up call: No country is immune from such terror attacks
July 05, 2016
Syed Munir Khasru
Background:
For the first time in the history of Bangladesh, the country has witnessed a terrifying hostage situation and the resulting death and carnage on July 1-2. Dhaka tragedy, compounded with previous attacks on secular intellectuals and religious preachers, demonstrates that the country is targeted as a recruitment ground for terrorist organization taking advantage of new media to propagate hate speech, radicalize & recruit youth, and organize well-coordinated attacks in busy places where foreigners socialize.
The siege of the Holey Artisan Bakery in Dhaka and subsequent killing of 20 hostages have shocked the world, making it only evident that all countries from West to East share the same vulnerabilities to such atrocities. Conventional wisdom and tactics may not be enough to counter this growing menace as the world needs to rethink its strategy to effectively deal with a crisis that has no borders and foments globalization for wrong reasons.
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The terrifying attack on a calm Friday evening, at the Holey Artisan Bakery in Dhaka, has perplexed the world. The gruesome killing of innocent civilians has prompted many theories. For the first time in the history of Bangladesh, a popular socialising place had more than 30 people taken hostage for a gut-wrenching 12 hours of siege. The commando operation could save 13 lives, but 20 hostages had already being brutally killed and two policeman died in the gunfight.
The Dhaka tragedy comes after a series of attacks on secular bloggers, writers, intellectuals and non-Muslim priests which started in early 2013. In response, the government launched a massive countrywide crackdown on extremists and arrested thousands of suspects.
As on previous occasions, Islamic State (IS) has claimed responsibility for the Dhaka attack. The government reiterated its longstanding claim that there is no presence of IS or other international terrorist organisations in Bangladesh. The perpetrators are suspected to be aligned, rather, with home grown militant groups such as Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh and Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), which follow extremist ideologies similar to al-Qaida or IS.
However, the pattern and plot of the Dhaka tragedy resemble attacks organised by IS in other parts of the world. First, they target busy places of socialisation or tourist attraction where foreigners are likely to visit. Second, they terrify people by causing massive human casualties. Third, they follow similar rhetoric such as ‘Allahu Akbar – God is Great’ or a military posture and the symbolic black flag to justify their atrocities. Lastly, they aim to grab global attention to motivate their followers around the world.
Young Bangladeshis, like other Muslim youth around the world, are susceptible to radicalisation. Bangladesh in particular, seems a fertile recruitment ground for international militant groups. Al- Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahri announced his plan to strengthen militant groups in South Asia, which includes Bangladesh, on September 4, 2014. In the same month Samiun Rahman, a Bangladeshi-origin Briton, was arrested in Dhaka on suspicion of recruiting for organisations like IS or al-Qaida.
With almost 30% of the population between the age of 10-24 years, Bangladesh enjoys a youthful demographic dividend. Bangladesh is also one of the very few Muslim-majority democratic countries with remarkable achievement in mass education, women empowerment, and peaceful coexistence of different religious communities. According to the 2015 Global Peace Index published by Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), Bangladesh ranked better than India or Pakistan in South Asia. The obvious question is why and how Bangladesh is becoming a target of global terrorism.
Firstly, religion often gets exploited to achieve a specific political agenda. Due to religious sensitivity, terrorist organisations take advantage of the misrepresentation of religious texts to radicalise people. Secondly, the growth of educated young people trying to follow religion, particularly Islam as a lifestyle is well noticed by terrorists. The Dhaka tragedy reconfirms that the target of indoctrination is not uneducated poor youth studying in a remote madrassa, but rather bright youngsters from well-off families who receive the best of education. Thirdly, easy access to internet enables secure, cheap, instantaneous transnational networking.
Terrorists can communicate and coordinate transnational crimes without even meeting physically. Security and intelligence agencies often fail to intercept attacks planned almost virtually. The risk gets intensified when the virtual life of young people in the social media is almost unchecked, with both peaceful messages of coexistence as well as hatred and bigotry propagated without filter or verification.
The lone wolves, who would otherwise be scattered, are taking advantage of new media to form pack of wolves and organise dreadful atrocities. The recent deportation of 26 Bangladeshis from Singapore suspected of terrorism also raise a red flag on growing concerns of radicalisation of Bangladeshi diaspora living in different places of the world.
This is a wake-up call for everyone that no country is immune to such terrorist attack. Terrorism has crossed borders, changed forms, intensified brutalities and abandoned religion. Unless the world finds an equally smart response against hate speech and propagation of extreme ideologies, the Dhaka tragedy is likely to recur from Istanbul to Paris to San Bernardino and elsewhere.
Link: http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-edit-page/take-dhaka-tragedy-as-a-wake- up-call-no-country-is-immune-from-such-terror-attacks/
4. Unquenched furies of 1971: To repair damaged ties with Bangladesh, Pakistan should apologise for war crimes
March 07, 2016
Syed Munir Khasru
Background:
The recent diplomatic spat between Bangladesh and Pakistan on the issue of trial of the war crimes, committed during the War of Liberation of Bangladesh in 1971, has caught attention at both home and abroad. Most of the Bangladeshis believe that Pakistan needs to come into terms with the dark history of atrocities committed in 1971. An official apology from Pakistan can help normalize not only Pak-Bangla bilateral relations but also boost South Asian regional cooperation. Being the designated host of the next SAARC Summit in Islamabad, Pakistan needs to mend fences with important neighbors like Bangladesh before it can successfully lead SAARC.
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Today is a historic day for Bangladesh. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, leader of the then East Pakistan, delivered an iconic speech to a gathering of over two million people at Dhaka’s Ramna Race Course Maidan this day in 1971, calling for a civil disobedience movement against the then West Pakistan government. After 9 months of armed struggle against the occupying army of Pakistan, East Pakistan became Bangladesh as the country achieved its independence.
The horrors of the liberation war are still vivid in the minds of many Bangladeshis. The unspeakable atrocities suffered by Bangladeshis haunt many who are still alive. They can neither forgive nor forget what happened to them and their loved ones during those eventful and sordid days.
While Bangladesh and Pakistan share regional and international platforms, their relationship has recently turned sour. On December 23 last year, Islamabad recalled a diplomat from its high commission in Dhaka at Bangladesh’s request, on allegation of financing a suspected extremist accused of spying for Pakistan. In retaliation, Islamabad expelled a Bangladeshi diplomat who was posted in Islamabad. The current spat marks one of the lowest points of bilateral relations since 1974, when Pakistan finally recognised Bangladesh.
The Bangladesh government decided to put on trial war criminals of 1971 who played a key role in the genocide, rape and arson in Bangladesh throughout the liberation war. Some of the persons tried in the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) are also charged with raiding residences, shops and temples belonging to Hindu minority communities across Bangladesh. Pakistan’s reaction to the war crimes trial in Dhaka has been negative from the beginning.
Islamabad’s concern over recent executions of war crimes convicts has not been received positively by Dhaka. This has become a source of diplomatic discontent and old wounds have resurfaced due to Pakistan’s continued refusal to apologise for the brutal genocide that claimed millions of lives in 1971. Some of the statements made by leading Pakistani politicians on the trial have instead aggravated the situation.
Many countries have formally apologised for wartime atrocities. Both Japan and Germany apologised for war crimes in World War II. China still holds Japan responsible for forcing thousands of Chinese women to become sex slaves. Decades after the war, Japan apologised for war crimes committed by its soldiers in a number of countries – China, Korea and Philippines. Germany accepted responsibility for the Holocaust.
The path to justice in Bangladesh has not been a smooth one. Many western countries, while recognising the atrocities committed by the Pakistani soldiers in Bangladesh, have questioned the legal procedure of the trial process in terms of protection of human rights of the persons under trial. This approach has become a barrier for Bangladesh, as extradition of war criminals from abroad has become problematic.
The issue of Pakistan’s apology to Bangladesh entails also the repatriation of 2, 50,000 stranded Biharis from Bangladesh, who consider themselves Pakistanis. However, a formal apology could bring down resentments between the two countries and usher a new era of regional cooperation by moving beyond decades of bitterness and hostility.
It would set a new example, much like France and Germany moving beyond the bitter experiences of World War II to become founding members of the European Union. There is considerable public support in Pakistan in favour of a formal apology to Bangladesh. Several important figures such as Imran Khan and Khan Abdul Wali Khan see merit in Pakistan’s offering such an apology. Civil rights leaders like Asma Jahangir and noted media personality Hamid Mir have repeatedly appealed to the Pakistan government to accept responsibility for the atrocities its army committed in 1971.
Yet, the Pakistan parliament has condemned Bangladesh for trying the war criminals. The refusal of Pakistan to deal with its 1971 atrocities may be partly due to its desire to save the 195 military personnel identified for war crimes. Pakistan promised to put the 195 men under trial under the tripartite Shimla accord. Yet, such a trial never took place thanks to the civil-military dynamic inside the country that has seen direct or indirect military rule for most of its seven decades of existence.
As developing nations, Bangladesh and Pakistan could begin a new chapter of bilateral and regional cooperation that would greatly benefit both states in the long run. In 2013-14, trade between the two states was on the rise. Prolonged political crisis would not only reverse the gains made in bilateral ties in the last few decades, but also adversely affect regional cooperation in South Asia.
The 19th Saarc summit will be held in Islamabad. If the bilateral spat hinders Dhaka’s participation in the summit, relations between these two states would be further strained and the very spirit of Saarc, which was built on the principle of cooperation between South Asian states, would be lost. A sincere apology from Pakistan, no matter how late and overdue, can usher in a new chapter in Bangladesh Pakistan relations, both bilateral and regional. The ball is in Pakistan’s court.
Link: http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-edit-page/unquenched-furies-of-1971-to- repair-damaged-ties-with-bangladesh-pakistan-should-apologise-for-war-crimes/
5. Modi talks up Saarc in Dubai but a Saarc minus Pakistan and weighted east
August 20, 2015
Syed Munir Khasru
Background:
The recent agreement for establishing road transit across Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Nepal (BBIN), together with the traction gained by the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor make for a stark contrast against the failure of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) which could not make any substantive progress in the third decade of its existence to develop connectivity or boost economic cooperation due to the intractable political tussle and lack of trust spurred by the age old India- Pakistan rivalry.
As sweeping and transformative visions of integration take root across the Asia- Pacific, with necessary funding and political will falling in place, the slow-paced and reversible progress of SAARC is making it one of the most ineffective regional bodies of the world. As SAARC Finance Ministers converge in Nepal on August 20, the potentials and progress of South Asian regional integration continue to be overshadowed by political misgivings, bureaucratic entanglement, and other emerging regional initiatives that are generating more positive response from many of the SAARC member’s countries, much at the expense of SAARC though.
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Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in his speech in Dubai: “We are strengthening connectivity in Saarc. Some have tried to block talks. But rest of Saarc will move ahead — India, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh have signed a pact for building connectivity (BBIN). A new life has been infused in Saarc which was earlier a forum for sparring and efforts to corner India.”
2015 marks the 30th year of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. In its 30th year, the EU made the treaty for a single market. When Asean was 30 years old in 1997, intra- regional trade was 21% of its global trade. With a cumulative GDP of 9.12% of the world and 21% of the global population, Saarc also has enormous potential for economic integration.
But the Indo-Pak geopolitical conflict has long overshadowed collective socioeconomic welfare in South Asia. Even in the last Saarc summit held in Nepal, leaders failed to reach agreements on vehicular traffic and railways connectivity due to Pakistan’s scepticism.
Since November 2014, India has changed track and resorted to promoting connectivity in the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) sub-region, the second best choice for the grand vision of a road network connecting Dhaka to Kabul, as the Mughals had 400 years back. In terms of land connectivity, BBIN is simply Saarc minus Pakistan. Countries that can work out connectivity solutions cannot wait indefinitely for dilly-dallying neighbours.
The landmark BBIN Motor Vehicle Agreement was signed on June 15, 2015, soon after Modi’s political endorsement during his visit to Bangladesh. With 18% of the world population and 6.3% of global GDP, BBIN offers great opportunities of synergistic economic gains through seamless mobility of goods and people.
The Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor, also known as the Southern Silk Road, is another sub-regional initiative that links South and East Asia. Through integrating the four economies that contribute 16.7% of global GDP and comprise 40% of global population, BCIM EC will not only act as a transit corridor facilitating transport and people to people contact but also enhance multilateral trade and investment, joint ventures on energy and natural resources, and development of special economic zones.
Saarc’s greatest weakness is the lack of trust between India and Pakistan, which is absent in BBIN and BCIM so agreements are easier to reach. Presence of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Silk Road Fund and also South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation programme, which includes Sri Lanka and Maldives in addition to the BBIN countries, promise greater access to finance for investing in BCIM and BBIN respectively.
A foot-dragging Saarc is losing relevance. Hence, in spite of Modi’s positive reference to it, the reality is that as sub-regional initiatives within Saarc (like BBIN) and independent regional initiatives (like BCIM) gain momentum, in the absence of countries like Pakistan and Afghanistan, the grand vision of Saarc as a regional powerhouse is becoming obsolete.
Link: http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-edit-page/modi-talks-up-saarc-in-dubai- but-a-saarc-minus-pakistan-and-weighted-east/
6. A month after Modi visit, there are doubts in Dhaka if he will walk the talk
July 11, 2015
Syed Murni Khasru
Background:
Indian PM Narendra Modi’s visit to Dhaka in June 2015 created a lot of goodwill and legitimate expectation that the decisive statesman would straighten out the knotty issues of Indo-Bangla relations, in the vein of the successful conclusion of the land boundary agreement. Unfortunately hopes have been fading with the Indian border defence forces BSF acquittal of its trooper responsible for the sensational 2011 killing of a 15-year old Bangladeshi girl Felani which reinforces the concern that border killings may happen with impunity. Similarly, water sharing between India and Bangladesh on the river Teesta appears to be relegated to the backburners being caught up in the electoral politics of West Bengal, India.
Against such backdrop, the attached article in the Times of India, India's largest and influential media outlet, argues about the need for Modi’s impressive diplomacy to start getting translated into changes in the ground, such as cessation of killing in border, deal on Teesta water, and smooth trade between the two friendly nations. It would be a pity to lose the momentum and positive vibes that have been generated in the wake of the Indian PM’s Dhaka visit.
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A month has passed since Prime Minister Narendra Modi endeared himself in Dhaka with his charisma and eloquence. Through a slew of cooperation agreements, a captivating public speech and Bengali tweets among other things, Modi won many hearts in Dhaka.
The entire spectrum of Bangladeshi political parties warmed to the cause of taking Indo-Bangla relations forward in the wake of his visit. New history was made with the land boundary agreement, a year after the sea boundary demarcation.
Modi rightly identified the stronger Indo-Bangla friendship as opening the door for India’s Northeast, facilitating integration of South Asia with the ‘dynamic East’. New routes were opened between Dhaka and India’s Northeast. The motor vehicle agreement and sub-regional transit connectivity across Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and India laid the basis for seamless cargo and passenger traffic.
Yet, a month after the visit, the gains and positive vibes seem to be punctuated by some intractable negative factors at work. The joint statement issued during Modi’s visit avowed to implement the Coordinated Border Management Plan to bring down border killings to zero. However, the acquittal in a retrial by the Indian Border Security Force court on July 2 of the accused BSF constable Amiya Ghosh, for the 2011 killing of the 15 year old Bangladeshi girl Felani Khatun, sent the message that with the trial being conducted by the very organisation whose member is being charged, accountability for killings is a tall order.
The verdict, sparingly covered in the Indian media, sent shockwaves in Dhaka and drew censure from human rights groups from India as well as Bangladesh. Meanwhile Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, after stonewalling the Teesta water sharing treaty for years, recently roiled up the long settled Ganges water issue with the disingenuous allegation that lower riparian Bangladesh was getting more Ganges water than due at the Farakka barrage.
Hopes were high that Mamata would not obstruct an eventual Teesta deal after her assurances of playing a positive role during her February trip to Dhaka and then joining Modi’s entourage in June. Yet, despite Modi’s positive assurances of an expeditious deal, prospects of early conclusion seem dim as Mamata has her eyes fixed on Vidhan Sabha elections in West Bengal scheduled next year.
Modi has created goodwill and underscored his commitment. However, it will need more than personal charm to earn the confidence of Bangladeshis who have been assured for long that water will flow in the rivers, people will not die on the borders, and exports will have easy access to the Indian market. Now that he has made his mark in Dhaka, the need of the hour for Modi is to walk the talk.
Link: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-edit-page/a-month-after-modi-visit-there-are-doubts-in-dhaka-if-he-will-walk-the-talk/
7. Great expectations in Dhaka: Modi has an opportunity to reboot India-Bangladesh relations after many erratic flip-flops
June 05, 2015
Syed Munir Khasru
Background:
During Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Dhaka from June 6-7, 2015 expectations have been running high that the decisive leadership of Modi would help resolve many of the long standing thorny problems in Indo-Bangla relations. Although the much awaited resolution of water sharing of Teesta River has sunk once again, the attached article in the largest circulated Indian English daily, the Times of India looks at the key areas where bold steps can make a world of difference.
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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Dhaka from June 6-7 to discuss the ‘entire gamut’ of bilateral issues. The Modi government has shown decisiveness in passing the Land Boundary Agreement that was in limbo for more than four decades. While the Indira Gandhi government made the deal, Congress failed to ratify it in Parliament, even though the party enjoyed absolute majority in the 7th and 8th Lok Sabha in the 1980s. Modi has shown the will to translate his popular mandate into the required decisiveness.
Expectations were mounting that Modi’s visit would resolve the biggest sticky issue in Indo-Bangla relations — the Teesta Pact, as the Gazaldoba Barrage in upper riparian India adversely affects around 9 million people in Bangladesh. The thorny hurdle remains just what it was in 2011 — getting Mamata Banerjee’s support. The Modi government has been marshalling its powers to propitiate Mamata into acquiescing to a Teesta deal, and unlike 2011 this time Mamata is in the prime minister’s entourage.
Ongoing consultation between the Union and West Bengal governments hinges on Mamata’s concerns about getting water from further upstream Sikkim, which is pursuing a massive hydroelectric project creating a number of hydraulic dams. The need of the hour is a combination of decisiveness and delicate balancing of interests to resolve the complex water sharing issue.
Border killing of Bangladeshis by the Indian BSF is a continued concern. The number of fatalities may have slackened but they never stopped. The US-Mexico border, the Mediterranean that separates West Asia and North Africa from Europe, and recently the South to Southeast Asia sea route are key migration and trafficking frontiers faced with the challenge of massive flows of human beings fleeing from poverty, persecution and conflict — a problem of global proportions.
A civilised and humane response involves bringing on board key actors from all sides and ensuring an efficient and coordinated response. As India’s ‘most important neighbour’ — as termed by India’s national security adviser Ajit Doval — that is ‘fully responsive’ to the security sensitivities of India, Bangladesh deserves a definitive end to the border killings. Border skirmishes and an antediluvian shoot-to-kill policy are inconsistent with India’s global image of non-violence a la Gandhi and a pluralist democratic nation.
India enjoys with Bangladesh a trade surplus of $5.5 billion. More significantly, Bangladesh’s exports to India fell by 8.2% from 2012-13 to 2013-14, while India’s export rose 4.7%. This trade is estimated to rise to $10 billion by 2018 if non-tariff barriers like technical standards, classification issues and infrastructure bottlenecks are removed, a process that needs to be steered to completion.
Indian FDI to Bangladesh in 2014 was $68 million, up from $45 million in 2013. It remains lower than FDI from UK, Japan and even Pakistan. In the outward FDI map of India, while Western and Middle Eastern countries figure prominently, South Asian neighbours are hard to be found. Materialisation of the two special economic zones in Bangladesh for Indian investment can significantly improve bilateral investment. Tata Group called off its $3 billion investment proposal in 2007 after three years of waiting due to the indecisiveness of the Bangladesh government. This exit sent a negative signal about the investment climate of Bangladesh and underscores the need for stronger investment facilitation on Bangladesh’s part.
On connectivity, Modi is expected to inaugurate a bus service linking Dhaka with Meghalaya and Assam, while Bangladesh has approved a five year extension of a water transit protocol. India is pushing for a deep sea port, a strategic decision that might take a little time. The proposed motor vehicles agreement between Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal might be a first step for the four countries to get onto an Asean-style fast-paced cooperation mode rather than the ponderous and reversible cooperation style of Saarc.
On energy, Bangladesh has been importing 500 MW from India and transmission lines are set up to import an additional 600 MW by 2017. The Indo-Bangla joint construction of Rampal power plant is going forward, while the Adani group’s plans to install a 1,600 MW coal power plant and Reliance’s plan to set up an LNG-fuelled 3,000 MW power plant signal growing private sector involvement.
Modi’s visit is an occasion to strengthen genuine bipartisanship in Indo-Bangla relations. Bangladesh will honour BJP maestro Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who shored up bipartisan support for Bangladesh’s independence in 1971.
The main opposition party of Bangladesh BNP has also voiced willingness to back Indo-Bangla ties. The agenda is packed, stakes are high and tailwinds are strong. As he flies to Dhaka, Modi needs to notch up his boldness as well as to bring closure to the protracted tempo and erratic flip-flops of Indo-Bangla relations.
When Modi was declared the Asian of the Year 2014 by the Straits Times, Singapore, this writer wrote in that newspaper, “With global leadership comes global responsibility … Time and tide are on your side. What kind of ride you will make out of it, we Asians optimistically await to see.” Needless to say, Modi’s journey starts with the neighbourhood and the bigger neighbour has the larger share of responsibility.