The Straits Times

While the world’s attention is currently gripped by the plight of the Palestinians in Gaza, a “forgotten” humanitarian crisis continues to unfold and deepen in Asia: that of the Rohingya, about a million of whom reside in densely packed camps in Bangladesh, grappling with appalling conditions and scant access to basic resources.

For decades, the Rohingya, an ethnic Muslim minority group in predominantly Buddhist Myanmar, have suffered from discrimination. In 2017, a brutal military crackdown led to the mass exodus of over 700,000 of them to neighbouring Bangladesh.

Since then, the situation has deteriorated badly with efforts at repatriation getting nowhere. Now it looks likely to worsen as a result of two recent developments: the escalation in fighting in Myanmar and the growing impatience of host countries, tired of bearing the burden of Rohingya refugees with no political solution in sight.

Unlike the Palestinians, for whom protests in support of their cause have sprouted in various cities, including Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta, the Rohingya are faced instead with dangerously dwindling material and political support as compassion fatigue grows in host countries.

International aid is declining sharply, forcing the United Nations to cut vital food aid in 2023.

On Feb 7, 2024, the Bangladesh government put its foot down and declared that it will no longer accept any more Rohingya refugees from Myanmar.

“We will not allow any more Rohingya to enter the country... They have already become a burden for us,” Mr Obaidul Quader, Bangladesh’s Minister for Road Transport and Bridges, told reporters. “International aid has been significantly reduced. How long can we support them?”

Mr Mohammad Mizanur Rahman, Bangladesh’s Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner based in Cox’s Bazar, noted pointedly that efforts to repatriate the refugees over the past seven years have failed. “Keeping Rohingya Muslims in Bangladesh has become a threat to our security, our law and order. It is creating a vulnerable situation for cross-border crime.”

In 2022, in making a plea for greater international action to address the problem, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said: “The protracted stay of the Rohingya in Bangladesh poses enormous challenges to our development aspirations... We have to spend around US$1.22 billion (S$1.6 billion) every year for the Rohingya.” That’s not counting the serious damage done to the environment to accommodate the large number of refugees.

What also worries the authorities in Dhaka currently is the spillover effect as fighting between Myanmar’s rebel forces and the junta regime intensifies. Earlier in February, Bangladesh’s border agency said some Myanmar troops had entered the country during fighting with the Arakan Army in Myanmar’s Rakhine state.

Last week, at a meeting in Dhaka, the Bangladesh government resisted appeals by a representative of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to take in another 900 Rohingya seeking safety at many points along the border, Nikkei Asia reported.

As the situation in the camps worsens, thousands of Rohingya have taken to fleeing by boat in an attempt to reach Malaysia or Indonesia, both Muslim-majority countries. But attitudes in both countries towards the refugees have become less hospitable in recent years. In late 2023, a mob of Indonesian university students stormed a temporary shelter for Rohingya refugees in Banda Aceh, demanding that they be deported.

Earlier narratives of the Rohingya being victims of religious persecution by non-Muslims in Myanmar have faded, replaced instead by hostility towards the outsiders seen as a source of crime and competition for jobs in the informal sector.

Indonesia has stepped up patrols of its waters, promising to crack down on suspected human traffickers it says are involved in the boat arrivals.

Asean has yet to muster a coordinated response to the deepening crisis. Indonesia and Malaysia have yet to ratify the UN refugee convention. Asean’s non-interference policy restricts its ability to influence Myanmar’s military rulers.

Separately, India is home to an estimated 40,000 Rohingya, scattered in places such as Delhi, Jammu and Hyderabad. They face anti-immigrant hatred, Islamophobia and the threat of arbitrary detention or deportation by the state. Vicious social media posts have likened the Rohingya to “cockroaches (that creep) from (the) sink at night” and rats that have to be exterminated like poison.

Can anything be done given the growing precarity of the Rohingya refugee situation in Asia?

China, which has close ties with both Myanmar and Bangladesh, has been emphasising the need for all parties to collectively address the Rohingya issue. In a series of tripartite meetings involving Bangladesh, Myanmar, and China, discussions have centred on expediting the Rohingya repatriation process. In reality, very little progress has been made as the Rohingya refuse to return until their safe and dignified return is guaranteed, which remains a far cry under the current circumstances.

Rohingya refugees living in 33 camps in Cox’s Bazar make up the world’s largest refugee settlement. It is also literally a growing problem – as Sheikh Hasina noted in 2022, 30,000 babies are born in the camps every year. Living conditions in the densely populated camps are desperate, particularly for women and children who are vulnerable to violence, exploitation, and human trafficking.

The outlook grows more dire each passing year without a lasting solution.

The Rohingya story is a human tragedy that is entangled in a complex web wrought by history and the politics of regional players. Unlike the Gaza conflict, it grinds on relentlessly, mostly out of sight of the cameras. But it would be a mistake to think that it is always somebody else’s problem. The resulting criminality, radicalisation and extremism could come to haunt those who either have turned a blind eye to or chose to do nothing about this growing humanitarian crisis. The clock is ticking.

Link: https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/asia-s-forgotten-refugee-crisis

1. Leaving Afghanistan in isolation is bad strategy

August 12, 2022

Syed Munir Khasru

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On Aug 1, a United States drone strike in Kabul killed Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. It was the biggest blow to the militants since Osama bin Laden was shot dead more than a decade ago, and put Afghanistan once more in the spotlight.

However, there are also other reasons for the world’s attention to be on Afghanistan this month. Aug 15 will mark one year since the Taliban swept back to power. For 20 years, the country had been under Western-backed rule.

With images of planes and helicopters evacuating foreigners, and people fleeing Kabul last year still vivid in memory, the country has been in the media glare mostly for wrong reasons. How has Afghanistan fared amid the turmoil since?

THE ECONOMY

Afghanistan is in deep economic crisis. While the Islamist militant group seized power a year ago, foreign governments do not recognise it. This diplomatic isolation of the Taliban has multiple knock-on effects.

With direct foreign aid suspended, a major source of support for the economy was taken away. International humanitarian aid of nearly US$1.88 billion (S$2.57 billion) has not been distributed since August last year. The World Food Programme finds it difficult to get donors and the World Bank has suspended US$600 million investment in Afghan schools.

A survey conducted by the World Bank over October-December last year showed 70 per cent of Afghan households had insufficient income to meet basic food and non-food needs.

The stoppage of international aid (previously equal to 45 per cent of gross domestic product) has led to fiscal contraction and collapsing demand in addition to severe disruptions to basic services such as healthcare and education.

The loss of hard-currency aid inflows, a cut-off of access to the overseas assets of the central bank and banking curbs related to anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism financing regulations have also disrupted remittance payments and made it extremely difficult for firms to pay for imports or receive payment for exports.

The import constraints are driving prices upwards. Last December, food price inflation was up by nearly 18 per cent and is expected to worsen because of the impact of the war in Ukraine on global grain supplies.

PLIGHT OF WOMEN AND CHILDREN

According to a 2017 Human Rights Watch report, two-thirds of Afghan girls did not attend school, which were functioning under dismal infrastructure conditions.

The Taliban’s return to power was to the further detriment of Afghan women and girls, with new barriers to education, healthcare access, freedom of movement, expression and association. Women have been banned from most government employment or had their salaries slashed. Families that had women as sole income earners were particularly hard hit. According to the Save the Children aid organisation, more than 13 million children need immediate humanitarian assistance.

RISING SECURITY THREATS

With the Taliban’s return last year, its repressive actions against officials from the former government and ethnic minority groups such as the Hazaras have fostered anti-Taliban movements such as the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan.

There is also the threat posed by its rival, Islamic State-Khorasan. Its ranks have risen since the Taliban’s return to power. Targets of its recent attacks have included a Sufi shrine and Shi’ite mosques in several cities. Meanwhile, the Uighur East Turkestan Islamic Movement that China blames for terror attacks in Xinjiang is reportedly rebuilding its presence in Afghanistan.

The killing of Zawahiri in Kabul has brought into sharp focus the presence of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan despite the Taliban’s promise to the US in 2020 that they would not harbour its members. It also bodes ill for Afghanistan’s future. Strained ties between the Taliban and the West will make it harder for the country to secure more cash and other help to avert an economic catastrophe.

WARY NEIGHBOURS

Last month, Pakistan and China stressed the need for stability in Afghanistan as Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari met his counterpart in the Taliban administration on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting in Tashkent.

China and Pakistan recently raised the possibility of extending China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan. While both countries are not averse to Taliban rule in Kabul, both share security concerns about their common neighbour. In China’s case, it wants a stable government in Afghanistan to avoid cross-border overflow of terrorism and to protect its investments.

Meanwhile, India, which has kept to an anti-Taliban stance for decades, sought in June to reboot relations. Some of the existing tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban may be a reason why India is seeking to engage with the Taliban.

ISOLATION IS NOT THE ANSWER

The hasty exit of the US abandoned millions of Afghan women and youth to the mercy of Taliban. The cut-off of aid is hurting ordinary Afghans more than the Taliban. Although some nations may be engaging with the Taliban, their interests are driven more by their own economic and strategic interests.

While the US has yet to recognise the Taliban government, it was part of the international conference on Afghanistan last month in Tashkent. There they held meetings with the Taliban on issues such as girls’ education, human rights abuses and Afghanistan’s foreign exchange reserves frozen in the US and Europe.

More engagement is needed. Sanctions and unstructured political engagement by the West are unhelpful – it deepens the crisis in Afghanistan and jeopardises peace and stability in the region. Apart from humanitarian concerns, cutting off Afghanistan risks driving the country into the embrace of its enemies – China and Russia.

The growing polarisation, both regional and global, in the wake of the Ukraine war has shown that in geopolitics, there is no permanent friend or enemy. Unless the West learns from the recent lessons from Asia and Middle East, where it has been scrambling to find support against Russia as well as in raising oil production, isolating Afghanistan risks ceding influence in a strategically important region – South Asia. It houses one-fourth of the world’s population and two nuclear powers, India and Pakistan.

A weak and unstable Afghanistan, no matter who rules the country, may come to haunt the international community as it did when the US-led West turned its back on the country after the Soviet Union withdrew in 1989, leading to the rise of Al-Qaeda.

Link: https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/leaving-afghanistan-in-isolation-is-bad-strategy

2. Can Indonesia and India get the G-20 to walk the talk?

November 29, 2021

Syed Munir Khasru

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Both Asian members are positioned in the next two years to get the forum to pay more heed to the Global South’s needs

Two major Asian countries – Indonesia and India – will soon have a rare back-to-back opportunity to exercise global leadership and focus attention on the pressing needs of the developing world.

Indonesia, which assumes the Group of 20 (G-20) presidency on Wednesday, has named global health, energy transition and digital transformation as its three priorities. India takes over the helm in 2023.

Both countries will be in a position to reframe the global discourse on development and multilateral trade at a time when resources are squeezed by the pandemic and climate change-related pressures. There is also a need to reboot flagging South-South cooperation.

Indonesia has chosen “Recover Together, Recover Stronger” as the theme of its G-20 presidency, which reflects President Joko Widodo’s goal of encouraging collective efforts for global economic recovery. Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi at a briefing for foreign media late last Friday, gave a glimpse of what Indonesia hopes to achieve: “We will work as hard as we can to assume this responsibility and bring benefit not only for the G-20 but also to developing and least developed countries.”

Indonesia has several natural assets to help it push the agenda of the Global South as the G-20’s next president. It is the world’s third-largest democracy, the largest Muslim-majority country, the largest economy in South-east Asia, and home to the fourth-largest population in the world. Having reduced poverty by more than half since 1999, Indonesia is no stranger to the struggles of national development.

As a leading member of Asean, it is also an experienced hand in regional cooperation and multilateralism. Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati was the managing director of the World Bank in 2010.

It helps too that politically, Indonesia enjoys good strategic relationships with the United States, China and Russia.

It is to be expected that at the next G-20 Leadership Summit in Bali, the two Cs – Covid-19 economic recovery efforts and climate-related issues – will be priority items on the agenda.

Indonesia has first-hand experience of the impact of both. It was demoted from an upper-middle-income country to a lower-middle-income country in July as a result of the pandemic. Climate change threatens Indonesia’s coastal zones and has a myriad other spillover effects on matters such as public health and housing. In July, during the second round of the G-20 Sherpa Meetings, Ambassador Dian Triansyah Djani from Indonesia pressed for greater support for programmes such as future pandemic risk mitigation, food security, human resource development, digitalisation, women’s empowerment and energy transition to renewables.

The Delhi Summit provides India an opportunity to build on the momentum for post-pandemic recovery, climate action and sustainable development. As the fourth major contributor to carbon emissions, it will be interesting to see how India handles proceedings of the 2023 Leadership Summit.

While having Indonesia and India in leadership positions are a boost to the Global South, one should also not underestimate the challenges ahead.

Formed in 1999, amid the Asian financial crisis, the G-20, comprising 19 countries and the European Union, represents two-thirds of the world’s population and 80 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP). The forum’s initial objectives were to promote financial regulation and policy coordination for stabilising the global economy.

However, it suffers from a rich-poor divide, with the wealthier G-7 members tending to dominate the agenda and the less well-off members unable to build a coherent development agenda.

This year, the Italian G-20 presidency put equitable vaccine distribution, international aid, gender equality and easing trade restrictions on its agenda. But the results were less than stellar.

The absence of China’s President Xi Jinping and Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin amid growing geopolitical tensions was glaring. The post-summit declaration also lacked a well-thought-out strategy for mass immunisation of deprived populations. The G-7 also baulked at waiving intellectual property rights for vaccine production.

Many of the G-20’s difficulties can be traced to the absence of an enforcement mechanism. Also, unlike international bodies like the United Nations or the World Bank, the G-20 does not have a permanent secretariat and regular full-time staff.

While having an inclusive membership, the G-20 club has so far failed to generate wider support for measures to tackle issues such as ensuring equitable vaccination and reforming the Bretton Woods institutions.

The start of an annual disbursement of US$100 billion (S$137 billion) in climate finance for developing countries has shifted from last year to 2025 despite the sum accounting for only 0.2 per cent of the developed countries’ GDP.

A paradigm shift is needed to transform the G-20 into a political and economic platform that walks the talk and not only talks about the walk.

The journey ahead will not be easy but the two big Asian members do have the opportunity to pave the way and provide momentum for the G-20 presidencies of Brazil in 2024 and South Africa in 2025 to deliver more for the Global South. The question is, can Indonesia and India rise to the occasion and inject the necessary leadership and dynamism to a platform that is yet to come of age?

Link: https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/can-indonesia-and-india-get-the-g-20-to-walk-the-talk

3. The Rohingya challenge as Bangladesh seeks closer Asean Ties

October 19, 2021

Syed Munir Khasru

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The protracted presence of Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar and the negative effects on economic stability, security and the environment have taken a toll on public sentiment in Bangladesh.

With the Asean Summit taking place later this month, the problem of Myanmar looms large – for the regional grouping as well as Bangladesh.

In an unprecedented move, foreign ministers from Asean agreed at an emergency meeting last Friday to exclude General Min Aung Hlaing, leader of the Myanmar junta, from the Oct 26 to 28 summit. It was intended as a rebuke to the junta for its failure to make progress on the agreed road map to peace after the February coup.

While the spotlight has been on the turmoil following from the coup, there is also another massive, unresolved issue – the Rohingya. It is a pressing humanitarian problem that concerns Bangladesh too. Over a million Rohingyas are being sheltered in Bangladesh after waves of refugees fled their homes in Myanmar’s Rakhine state to escape ethnic cleansing in 2017. They risk being forgotten as new crises grab the world’s attention.

Although Bangladeshis have largely been supportive of the government’s decision to host the Rohingya refugees, their protracted presence and negative effects on economic stability, security and the environment, especially in the Cox’s Bazar area, have led to a palpable shift in public sentiment.

Patience is growing thin. Bangladesh spends around US$1.21 billion (S$1.63 billion) a year supporting the refugee community. But a stalemate on the repatriation process is increasing the burden as more flee Myanmar, inflation spikes and foreign aid drops. Some 4,300ha of forested land has been cleared to accommodate the refugees, exacting a toll on the environment.

Meanwhile the Covid-19 pandemic is fuelling resentment among Bangladeshis who fear outbreaks spreading from the refugee campsites to the wider community.

There is also growing security concern arising from reports of violent crimes within the Rohingya community and the trafficking of children and women. The assassination last month of moderate Rohingya leader Mohib Ullah by extremist elements underscored the growing threat of radicalisation of young Rohingyas by international terrorist groups.

Failure to facilitate a safe and dignified repatriation has led to controversial decisions, such as the shifting of thousands of the refugees from the border camps to a remote island Bhasan Char.

Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed raised the Rohingya issue at the United Nations General Assembly on Sept 25. The Asean Summit was meant to be an opportunity for Dhaka to open talks with South-east Asian leaders to press Myanmar on the repatriation of Rohingyas.

With the junta’s leader excluded from the summit and the broader Myanmar crisis unresolved, however, it would be hard to see an early resolution of the Rohingya problem.

Why Asean is important to Bangladesh

But Bangladesh’s interest in forging closer ties with South-east Asia encompasses more than the refugee problem. Dhaka also hopes to intensify economic, trade, political and cultural ties.

Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister A.K. Abdul Momen in August expressed interest in his country becoming an Asean Sectoral Dialogue Partner, which would make it easier to step up cooperation in areas such as development and capacity-building.

There is a pressing domestic reason why stronger ties with Asean is a priority issue for Dhaka. Because Bangladesh had done well economically in recent years, it is expected to graduate from its status as a least developed country in 2026. This graduation will make the country more attractive for foreign investors, but it will also mean the loss of trade privileges for the export market that could cost Bangladesh billions in revenue. Asean is seen as part of a broader plan to offset the impending losses and protect its export growth.

By 2030, combined Asean gross domestic product is expected to hit US$10 trillion. That, and its consumer base of more than 660 million people and a burgeoning middle class, make South-east Asia a more promising region for Bangladesh’s growth prospects than its immediate neighborhood.

Bangladesh’s membership in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) has failed to result in any substantial economic gain. Insurmountable Indo-Pakistan disputes have made South Asia one of the world’s least integrated regions, with the attendant effects on trade.

China is Bangladesh’s largest trading partner and biggest foreign investor, but Bangladesh is treading cautiously out of geopolitical concerns and the need to avoid over-reliance on a dominant trading partner.

India is Bangladesh’s largest trading partner in South Asia. However, a number of unresolved issues, like water sharing of common rivers and border killings, continue to be a bone of contention, exacerbated by the Sino-India tug of war to strengthen influence over Bangladesh.

The European Union is a big export market for Bangladesh but Dhaka’s relationship with the EU remains vulnerable to disputes over human rights and worker protection issues.

From Dhaka’s perspective, not only would South-east Asia give Bangladesh access to a huge market, closer integration will facilitate Bangladesh’s linkage with wider global value chains, catalysing the country’s export diversification.

In the next three to four years, pharmaceutical exports alone to the Asean market has the potential to reach US$1.2 billion from the present US$60 million, provided non-tariff and technical barriers are addressed. A free trade agreement with the bloc could create a conducive environment for greater intra-regional trade and investment.

Asean too has much to gain from stronger ties with Bangladesh. By virtue of its location in the eastern region of South Asia and connectivity with neighbouring regions, Bangladesh is uniquely positioned to be the hub connecting the two regions.

The country provides Asean countries access to land-locked Nepal and Bhutan and north-eastern India. Bangladesh’s mega infrastructure development projects for enhancing roads, railways, airports, sea and inland waterways ports can facilitate seamless north-south and east-west connectivity for Asean within South Asia.

Bangladesh’s robust growth trajectory, a large market of over 164 million, a growing information and communications technology industry along with a liberal and competitive investment climate make it an attractive market.

To be sure, the challenges facing Asean and Bangladesh are plentiful and not easily resolved. But as countries worldwide gear up for recovery post-pandemic, there is much to be gained from Asean-Bangladesh cooperation as both parties seek new growth avenues, restructure their supply chains and build resilience to withstand future economic disruptions.

Link: https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-rohingya-challenge-as-bangladesh-seeks-closer-asean-ties

4. Why South Asia should engage with the Taleban

August 27, 2021

Syed Munir Khasru

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As the Soviets left Afghanistan in 1989, setting the stage for the rise of the Taleban, the world silently witnessed human rights violation in the years that followed. It was only after the 9/11 attacks in 2001 that the Taleban captured the world’s attention, as the United States-led invasion led to the collapse of the regime run by the militant Islamist group.

Fast forward 20 years, the Taleban is back in power. The Americans are able to quit Afghanistan but not its South Asian neighbours. How are they to adjust to the continuing shock waves of the Taleban’s return to power?

India faces the risk of freshly emboldened Pakistan-based insurgency outfits in Kashmir, aggravating militancy and conflict in the state. The reinvigoration of extremist groups, like Lashkar-e-Taiba, could pose renewed threats to the country’s security.

A potential China-Pakistan- Taleban alliance can only add to India’s anxiety. China has extended an olive branch to the Taleban, a prerequisite in protecting its ambitions in the mineral-rich Afghanistan, and for reasons concerning internal security. India’s arch-rival Pakistan too will seek to gain influence in Kabul.

Pakistan has a complicated relationship with the Taleban. While it sheltered elements of the Afghan militant group, it has also paid a heavy price with hundreds of Pakistan Taleban-orchestrated attacks on civilians and security forces. There is no question of Pakistan not engaging with the new rulers in Kabul. Should civil war break out next door, it could cripple Pakistan’s struggling economy.

A boost for South Asian terrorists

The security of other South Asian nations also remains challenged. Bangladesh has been dealing with the rise of radical Islamic nationalism for quite some time.

The Taleban’s growing stature can only inspire local terror outfits such as the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh, the group responsible for the Holey Artisan Bakery attack in Dhaka in 2016 that led to the deaths of foreigners, including nine Italians and seven Japanese, and one Indian.

Then there is the more than a million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar in Bangladesh, with over 50 per cent of them being young people. Without a home country, job, or education, these youth could be a fertile breeding ground for radicalisation and are susceptible to the kind of influence that Taleban brings to the table.

Sri Lanka, too, is vulnerable as the Taleban victory emboldens groups like the National Thowheeth Jama’ath, an Islamist militant group responsible for the 2019 Easter bombings.

Wooing through trade

Taleban 2.0 has vowed to stop the production and smuggling of opium, which is the largest contributor of a well-tuned finance engine, and is calling for international help to follow through.

However one judges the sincerity of the pledge, this could open the door to talks – by offering the incentive of economic links to its South Asian neighbours.

For example, India has helped Afghanistan build roads, schools, dams, highways and even its Parliament building with investments of more than US$3 billion (S$4 billion).

Indo-Afghan bilateral trade crossed the US$1 billion mark in 2019-2020. It makes sense for India to initiate political contacts with the Taleban to ensure continuity of its economic interests, as the void is being quickly filled up by its rivals Pakistan and China.

With Afghanistan being the crucial link between the lucrative Central Asian market and South Asia, successful engagement with the Taleban could serve the broader commercial interests of the region, opening up access to Central Asia’s substantial energy and natural resources.

Despite sharing a long history of trade relations, trade between the two regions currently stands at a low of between 0.2 per cent and 4 per cent of total trade to all destinations.

Located in the heart of Eurasia, a peaceful Afghanistan could act as a bridge connecting South Asia with Central Asia through energy resources, while also providing the former with new transit routes to Europe via the regional intergovernmental organisation, the Commonwealth of Independent States.

Regional forums and energy infrastructure projects, such as the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation programme, the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan- Pakistan-India pipeline, and the Central Asia-South Asia power project (Casa-1000), aim to open corridors and maximise benefits of improved regional connectivity.

Successful implementation of these projects will connect energy-rich Central Asia with energy-hungry South Asia. What is more, access to the South Asian market would allow landlocked Central Asia to reduce its trade dependency on China and Russia.

Dialogue channels

Pakistan has stated its willingness to work with the Taleban towardwww.straitstimes.com/opinion/why-south-asia-should-engage-with-the-taleban an “inclusive political settlement” in Afghanistan.

India has so far been missing from the diplomatic scene, resulting in a loss of regional influence in the immediate aftermath of the siege.

However appalling the Taleban’s human rights record, reality dictates that engagement with the Taleban is necessary in efforts to restore stability and peace to the region. Going down this road is no different from the US holding talks with Pyongyang or Asean with Myanmar despite both being considered international pariahs.

One possible platform for this is the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc). While Saarc has been criticised for not living up to its potential, the charter of the grouping, of which Afghanistan is a member, provides for a cooperative security framework for “suppression of terrorism” in the region.

With the interests of all members at stake, including arch-rivals India and Pakistan, this is an opportunity for South Asian nations to sit down with the Taleban and thrash out matters related to regional security.

Dialogue is imperative, either within the existing regional framework or by initiating new channels.

In South Asia’s case, all parties will have to find ways to live and coexist peacefully, as one can change friends, but has to learn to live with neighbours. Isolationist policies and sanctions have not worked in the past, be it for Afghanistan or Iran and Myanmar.

Link: https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/why-south-asia-should-engage-with-the-taleban

5. Why China and India are wooing Bangladesh

July 01, 2021

Syed Munir Khasru

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In the intensifying tussle for influence in South Asia, Bangladesh's location and economy are drawing attention from both Asian giants

Bangladesh, which was once dismissed by former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger as a "basket case" when it was a newfound nation in 1971, is enroute to becoming one of the "Asian Tigers".

Leaving behind the dark, post-liberation period, its economy is weathering the pandemic well. The International Monetary Fund has projected a 4 per cent rise in gross domestic product for 2022, whereas India's could decline by 10.3 per cent.

Annual growth is 8 per cent and per capita income stands at US$2,227 (S$2,993) in the 2020-21 financial year - 12 per cent higher than India. Add to this a giant market of 164.69 million people, growing manufacturing prowess, and availability of cheap labour, it is no wonder that the country is attracting renewed attention.

But geopolitics also plays a part too. Friction between emerging global superpower China and regional superpower India is elevating Bangladesh's regional importance.

Located at the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh is in a key strategic position, with both Asian powers eyeing to build ports in the country to boost their presence in the Indian Ocean region.

Chinese aid, Indian historical ties

India-Bangladesh relations have had their fair share of ups and downs. Since the government led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina came to power in 2009, ties with India have greatly improved, with Bangladesh now India's largest trading partner in the sub-continent, with bilateral trade pegged at US$9.5 billion in 2019-20.

Both governments have undertaken initiatives for boosting connectivity, while cooperation in the power sector has resulted in private Indian companies investing US$9 billion in Bangladesh. Ms Hasina has also rooted out cross-border anti-India insurgency activities from Bangladesh and strengthened defence cooperation.

However, unresolved water-sharing issues, India's border killings of Bangladeshi nationals and controversial laws on Muslims and expulsion of alleged illegal Bangladeshi migrants remain sources of friction.

Meanwhile, China is considered an "all weather friend" by many in Bangladesh. A Chinese move to exempt tariffs for 97 per cent of Bangladeshi products is a welcome boost in Covid-stricken times for bilateral trade, which stood at US$18 billion in 2019.

Bangladesh now accounts for 20 per cent of China's arms sales.

Bangladesh is also the recipient of billions in loans and other assistance under China's Belt and Road Initiative.

It is building its third largest Payra deep-sea port with Chinese assistance while opening up Mongla and Chattogram ports to the Chinese after access was granted to India. A US$250 million contract to build an airport terminal in Sylhet city was awarded to China over Indian competitors.

And as India drags its feet on water-sharing negotiations for the Teesta River, the lifeline to north-western Bangladesh, the "Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project" was inked last year with support from China for a US$1 billion engineering scheme.

That said, moves by Bangladesh to assert cost control on some Chinese-backed rail projects have led to friction.

Sino-India tug of war in South Asia

China's growing influence in Bangladesh is being replicated in other parts of South Asia -a source of concern for India.

Earlier last month, India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar spoke to his Sri Lankan counterpart Dinesh Gunawardena amid Delhi's growing concerns over the proposed Chinese-funded Colombo Port City project.

Despite India's support for Bhutan against China over a still unresolved border dispute, it has not stilled rumblings about reducing Bhutan's dependence on India in the Himalayan kingdom.

In the Maldives, although there has been a renewal of an "India First" policy, China's expanding footprint there, such as the US$200 million China-Maldives Friendship Bridge, has ensured its position in the country.

With the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the stakes for both India and China's regional security concerns have increased. Though India enjoys cordial relations with the current Afghan regime, China has the advantage of deeper pockets and good ties with Pakistan, a key player in Afghan geopolitics. While Beijing has diplomatic ties with Kabul, it has also been hedging its bets by building up contacts with the Afghan Taleban.

Politics of self-interest

The wooing of Bangladesh by China and India is part of a bigger tussle over regional and maritime security. China, whose economy is heavily dependent on energy exports shipped from the Middle East, is driven by its need to ensure it has friendly relations with littoral states around the Indian ocean.

From India's perspective, the building of Chinese relationships - and the ports and other facilities that come with it - with key countries along the maritime route is a threat, with the likes of Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and the Maldives being part of a strategic "string of pearls" to encircle India and choke its power projection.

Seen in this light, China's BRI is a tool to augment its foothold in South Asia by creating economic dependence, as it did in Sri Lanka. Chinese support for Bangladesh under the BRI framework, it is argued, is part of the same game to undermine India's security and strategic interests.

India too has been wooing Bangladesh in line with its "Act East" policy. Among other things, Delhi is trying to get Dhaka to joining the Indo-Pacific Quad, an informal strategic alliance involving the United States, India, Japan, and Australia. This has elicited a strong reaction from Beijing, with the Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe on a recent visit to Dhaka calling for joint efforts to resist "powers from outside the region setting up a military alliance in South Asia".

Dealing with two giants

Bangladesh has been deftly balancing its relations with the two Asian giants, making it clear that it would not be choosing between the two. While trying to address India's geopolitical concerns, Bangladesh has steadfastly maintained its right to maintain economic cooperation as well as close defence ties with China.

While China has strengthened its economic ties with Bangladesh by bankrolling development projects, India has the benefit of a shared history, values, culture and connectivity with Bangladesh.

The onus is now on the two giants to prove whose strategic objectives are more aligned to the long-term interests of Bangladesh. For now, the country can enjoy the attention it gets from the two rivals. By playing its cards wisely, South Asia's stellar performer can safeguard its economic and strategic interests.

Link: https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/why-china-and-india-are-wooing-bangladesh?error=true&login=true

6. Bangladesh - from near death to a South Asian success story

March 25, 2021

Syed Munir Khasru

Background

The article speaks about the growth of Bangladesh in the past 50 years, from its declaration of independence and the liberation war, in which millions of people died or became homeless to becoming a success story among the South Asian countries with growth rates and GDP ahead of nations like India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Maldives.

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That it is ahead of its neighbours in growth rates and other indicators shows nations can overcome dauntingly poor odds.

Tomorrow, Bangladesh, the youngest South Asian nation, will mark the 50th anniversary of its declaration of independence - one that pitched what was then East Pakistan into a bloody nine-month liberation war.

By the time it gained full independence on Dec 16, 1971, millions had lost their lives while about one million people rendered homeless or fled to India.

Looking back, the odds stacked against Bangladesh were huge. Besides the trauma of its violent birth, it suffered natural disasters, famines and more political turbulence in its early years. There was pervasive poverty, a high population growth rate and an economy over-reliant on agriculture.

And yet today, it is outpacing its South Asian neighbours in economic growth rates. According to World Bank figures for 2019, Bangladesh's gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 8.2 per cent, ahead of India (4.2 per cent), Pakistan (1 per cent), Sri Lanka (2.3 per cent), Nepal (7 per cent), Bhutan (5.5 per cent) and Maldives (7 per cent).

What's more, Bangladesh is doing better than India and Pakistan on social and human development indicators such as female literacy and workforce participation, infant mortality and rural primary health. In 1971, the average Bangladeshi's life expectancy was only 46.5 years; by 2018, it is 72 years, two years higher than India's.

Since 2010, eight million people have moved out of poverty. More are moving to cities while rapid Internet penetration and mobile phone connectivity augur well for further development. Bangladesh has also over the years worked to reduce two key vulnerabilities. First, it has reduced its reliance on agriculture by expanding into other sectors such as pharmaceuticals and the apparel industry. The latter is its biggest export earner, worth over US$27.9 billion (S$37.5 billion) in 2019-2020. Bangladesh's garment industry is also one of the most globally competitive, second only to China.

Second, while there is not much the country can do to stay out of the path of cyclones, it has creditably built early warning and other disaster management system that has reduced the loss of lives and damage from storms and floods.

For all of its achievements at this point of its nationhood, Bangladesh faces many challenges ahead. On the political front, it has fallen behind in terms of moving towards a multi-party, pluralist democracy. The last two national elections have been largely uncontested and not participative. Power has become more centralised in the Prime Minister's Office. The latest Democracy Index by the Economist Intelligence Unit labelled the country a "hybrid regime", implying substantial irregularities that prevent free and fair elections.

Also, the adoption of the 2018 Digital Security Act has been criticised by the media for giving police sweeping powers to obtain digital information and to detain people accused of expressing offensive views online.

Despite its steady export performance, Bangladesh ranks 168 out of 190 countries in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index for 2020, only ahead of Afghanistan in South Asia.

In short, good governance, freedom of speech and rule of law continue to be areas with much room for improvement.

Economically, its huge success as an apparel producer is a mixed blessing. The garment trade takes up 83 per cent of Bangladesh's export basket - a dangerously high level of dependence. In 2013, the collapse of poorly constructed garment factory Rana Plazain Dhaka, killing 1,134 workers, brought the the sector's treatment of its workers into global spotlight.

Although the industry has scrambled to make its practices compliant with international standard, another disaster would leave the country with few other industries to fall back upon.

Light engineering, ceramics, pharmaceuticals and frozen food are thrust sectors that could fetch billions for the country, provided there is the right environment to garner foreign investments.

The birth of Bangladesh has been attributed to ethnic and language divides between West Pakistan (mostly Punjabi, Pashtun and Sindhis) and East Pakistan (mostly Bengali). In a twist of fate, one of the challenges Bangladesh now faces is the sheltering of close to a million people escaping ethnic violence - the Rohingya refugees from Myanmar.

Since August 2017, waves of Rohingyas have fled into Cox's Bazar to escape rape, arson, killing and attacks by the Myanmar army. Refugees live in extremely congested camps and are highly dependent on external aid. Three years into the crisis, the matter is not only far from being resolved but has worsened with the military junta once again in power in Myanmar. With a roiling political crisis there, what is clear is that the Bangladeshi government will have to bear the brunt of sheltering this massive group left in limbo, putting considerable strain on the country's already limited resources.

A half century is a good time for any country to take stock of what it has achieved, what it still has to do and prepare for the challenges yet to come. Given how close it came to being stillborn, Bangladesh has come a long way indeed. But there is a certain fragility to the hard-earned results, contingent as they are on the forces of nature, such as the rising seas, as well as on the vagaries of man-made political decisions.

That said, that Bangladesh has come so far despite the daunting odds it faced 50 years ago and continues to face today are also a reminder of the power of human agency and sound policies to transform lives.

Link: https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/bangladesh-from-near-death-to-a-south-asian-success-story-0

7. Global Compact on Refugees is a good start, yet much remains to be done

January 02, 2019

Syed Munir Khasru

Background

At a time when multilateralism is falling through the cracks and many of the important international treaties under threat against rising populism & nationalism, the recently UN adopted Global Compact for the refugees is a welcome development. Yet, much much remaining to be done.

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On Christmas Day, a second Guatemalan child died in United States government custody while being detained after crossing the US-Mexico border.

In Libya, rampant child abuse persists in 26 Britain-funded refugee detention centres which critics say have been created as a way for European countries to outsource their problem with asylum seekers in their borders.

More than 200 children are held in Australia's offshore detention centre in Nauru, where they live in prison-like holding areas, with many separated from families.

These incidents demonstrate that the global refugee management architecture needs fixing.

Amid such stark realities, out of a total 193 United Nations members, 181 endorsed the Global Compact on Refugees half a month ago, after two years of intense negotiations, dialogues and consultations.

The Global Compact on Refugees was envisioned after the historic New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants at the United Nations Summit on Sept 19, 2016. Through this declaration, the UN member states declared their political will towards improving global refugee and migration governance.

The declaration was historic as, for the first time on a global platform, both open and inward-looking states declared their willingness to address problems with the current global refugee and migration regime. As part of that declaration in 2016, UN member states agreed to work on two global compacts: on migration and refugees. The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration was formally adopted in Marrakech last Dec 10.

A week later, the Global Compact on Refugees was adopted. However, the US and Hungary refused to endorse it and Eritrea, Liberia and Libya abstained. Hungary had declared beforehand that it would reject it and Mr Peter Szijjarto, Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, was quoted saying: "With the Global Compact on Refugees, the UN prepared the little brother of the Global Compact on Migration, which opens the back door to those that cannot come in through the main entrance."

Both the migration and refugee compacts aim to provide concrete guidelines and milestones to improve the situation of refugees and migrants.

Refugees are individuals with no choice but to escape their country to flee persecution and threat to life while a migrant is a person leaving his country of origin to either escape a bad situation or to look for better livelihood in other countries.

Endorsement of the compact on refugees by 181 states amid an environment of growing populism is a welcome change. The non-binding but pragmatic and detailed nature of the compact and its global refugee framework will not force but encourage states to adhere to it. It requires pledges that states will not shirk from humanitarian commitments made on international platforms and risk harming their international goodwill and reputation.

While there is some scepticism on whether a non-binding compact can be effective, encouragement can be sought from the UN Millennium Development Agenda (popularly known as MDGs, from the eight Millennium Development Goals). Although a global non-binding, informal pact, it is viewed as a success because of the nature of its goals and reachable targets.

The same could hold true for the refugee compact. It calls for shared responsibility which should be welcomed by many developing and developed states which have been stretched to their limits in hosting refugees while many resource-rich nations have paid only lip-service to their responsibilities as 1951 Refugee Convention signatories.

Unlike the compact, the 1951 Refugee Convention is a legally binding, multilateral UN treaty which obliges signatories (145 in total) to protect refugees who are in their territory. While both Germany and Japan are signatories to the 1951 Refugee Convention, Germany has hosted one million Syrians while Japan has given shelter to only a handful. Financing the cost of protecting refugees, finding sustainable rehabilitation for them in both host and origin country should not be just the responsibility of a handful of countries but all signatories of the convention and the compact.

The compact is well-crafted and sets out concrete measures to arrange for better burden-sharing responsibility through a Global Refugee Forum to be held every four years. The forum will also conduct follow-ups and reviews and develop indicators to measure success in achieving the compact's objectives. These objectives include easing pressure on host countries; enhancing refugee self-reliance; expanding access to third-country solutions; and supporting conditions in countries of origin for refugees to return to in safety and with dignity.

Given how the refugee crises have unfolded over the past decade, it is impossible for states to shirk their responsibilities for an issue that has reached global proportions. At the end of 2017, there were nearly 25.4 million refugees around the world. Today, just 10 countries host 60 per cent of the world's refugees. Turkey alone hosts 3.5 million refugees, more than any other country. In Lebanon, one in every six people is a refugee and in Jordan, it is one in 14. More than a million Rohingya refugees now seek shelter in Bangladesh's coastal district of Cox's Bazar.

Ten governmental donors provide almost 80 per cent of UNHCR's funding. There is a problem with equal burden-sharing and the compact for refugees attests that and seeks to address it.

Many states like the US and Australia are already signatories to the Refugee Convention, which subjects them to take in refugees in need of protection against political, social and physical threat. The compact does not place anything additional to these obligations and, in fact, provides an implementable and practical path for the global community to undertake burden-sharing with regard to both hosting and financing.

Similarly, the compact does not open a floodgate of refugees into the heartland of Europe, but provides detailed pathways and milestones that can be reached and actions that can be undertaken to improve the ways refugees are treated in countries where they seek asylum. The compact also provides implementable guidelines for repatriating refugees to their countries of origin.

Migration, whether forced or voluntary, has always been a part of human history, and is especially commonplace in today's globalised and hyper digital world. Pre-modern migration of the Homo erectus from Africa to Eurasia to other parts of the world were the first instances of migration. People will always try to seek places to maximise their opportunities and settle in places where they find better ways of life and can live without fear.

Without a global road map for forced and voluntary migration management, refugees will continue to suffer and illegal migration will continue to thrive at the cost of lives and human dignity.

Link: https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/global-compact-on-refugees-is-a-good-start-yet-much-remains-to-be-done

8. ASEAN’s cyber defences in need of more guards

December 13, 2018

Syed Munir Khasru

Background:

As the cyber world becomes increasingly complex and treacherous, the ASEAN region has started to feel the pressure and consequently finding it difficult to tackle the threats due to a massive shortage of required skilled talents. The article analyzes the key reasons for this gap, which among others include, tech illiteracy among government officials that have contributed to a lack of comprehensive national strategies and subsequent understatement of fund requirements. The piece also delves into detail how cybersecurity education needs to be incorporated into school and college level educational curriculum to have a sustainable impact in addressing the skill shortage. Singapore has been the forebearer of ASEAN flag in this regard by initiating proactive and preemptive measures. However, for the bloc to be successful, a more concerted strategy needs to be put in place, primarily at national levels, for regional initiatives to work.

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Just weeks ago, the Marriott hotel group disclosed that it had been the victim of a massive data breach, with the loss of records on more than 500 million guests to hackers. Investigations are continuing and signs point to the breach being a state-sponsored operation.

Whatever the outcome of the probe, the scale of the theft should be a spur to Asean in getting its act together in the area of cyber security. There is much at stake.

The fastest-growing Internet region in the world, Asean is gearing up to be the world's fourth-largest economy by 2030. A key driver of that growth is the digital economy, which stood at US$10 billion (S$13.7 billion) last year and is expected to rise to more than US$80 billion by 2025. These figures are just the explicit trade numbers from e-commerce alone, while in reality, the economic impact of activities in the digital sphere is much wider.

But Asean is not as prepared as it should be in maximising the opportunities offered by the digital economy or curtailing the threats to be found in cyberspace. The latter includes not just hacking and privacy breaches but ransomware scams, terrorism and the dissemination of fake news. The price of failure is not just monetary but also damage to the social fabric of the region.

Part of Asean's problem is that its cyber defences are uneven among its 10 member states. The 2017 Global Cyber-security Index ranked Singapore at No. 1 and Malaysia at No. 3, while Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar languish at the bottom of the league.

As with the rest of the world, the biggest challenge for Asean in cyber security is finding the people to build and maintain the defences. According to CSO, a US-based research institution on cyber security, there will be approximately 3.5 million unfilled cyber-security jobs globally by 2021. Malaysia, alone, needs 10,000 cyber-security professionals by 2020. It currently has about 6,000.

WHY THE SHORTAGE?

First, acquiring any skill, let alone those in the area of cyber security, requires years of honing and development. The earlier training is started, the greater the accrued impact. But cyber-security issues are largely not taught in schools worldwide, which shrinks the pool of potential recruits. While Singapore has led commendable initiatives in developing the Asean Cyber Capacity Programme, the region still lacks a collaborative education strategy. Furthermore, aside from Singapore and Malaysia, the other Asean member states have not forged any strategy to develop cyber-security talent at the national level; their interventions have largely been ad hoc capacity-building training sessions and seminars.

Such piecemeal efforts are insufficient in building up the required numbers of practitioners able to carry out the most basic tasks of gate-keeping.

Singapore was ranked No. 1 on the 2017 Global Cyber-security Index, and while the Republic has led commendable initiatives in developing the Asean Cyber Capacity Programme, the region still lacks a collaborative education strategy, says the writer.

The need for cyber-security practitioners exists broadly at two levels: Almost all organisations today require ground-level personnel to ensure the day-to-day security of devices by warding off threats as they come in. At a higher level, organisations require managers well versed in how the cyber-security ecosystem works and able to come up with pre-emptive measures and strategies. Apart from Singapore, and to some extent Malaysia and Thailand, Asean nations have failed to address the issue from the root level.

Earlier this year, the Thai government approved US$10 million for the training of 1,000 cyber-security personnel. While the effort is timely, a better approach would have been to incorporate cyber education in curricula at school and college levels. The US government's recent initiatives can serve as a good example, as it has allocated US$125 million in grants to primary and secondary schools, and designated almost 200 colleges and universities as National Centres of Academic Excellence in Cyber Defence.

FUNDING AND TECH ILLITERACY

A second major problem facing Asean cyber-security concerns funding: Most members simply do not invest enough. Last year, countries worldwide spent 0.13 per cent of their gross domestic product on cyber security, whereas Asean as a whole spent a mere 0.06 per cent (US$1.9 billion). But it is not enough to throw money at the problem, not especially given the pace at which the technology is evolving.

A third major problem is tech illiteracy. Most government officials in the region have yet to internalise the need for robust cyber-security systems.

A recent study by Venafi, a cyber-security firm, found that 63 per cent of IT experts believe government officials lack basic understanding of the risks in the digital sphere.

Dr Peter Singer, a leading global cyber-security expert, cited a former secretary of US homeland security who did not use e-mail at all; it wasn't a fear of privacy or security - it was because she just didn't think it was useful. More recently, Japan's Cyber-security Minister Yoshitaka Sakurada admitted that he has never used a computer. Such tech illiteracy will need to be overcome and mindsets changed if cyber security is to be treated seriously in its own right, and not just an expense item in the national budget.

THE WAY FORWARD

Asean needs to first mobilise resources to identify the exact skill and capacity gaps in its cyber-security sector. In the short run, for those member states with a large shortage of experts, outsourcing IT security to third-party operators might be a feasible solution. However, given the ever-changing threat landscape, questions remain as to whether the third parties are capable of ensuring the security of the entrusted data. BitDefender, a cyber-security firm, was hacked in 2015, compromising the data of 400 million customer's accounts.

It should also be noted that simply solving the skills shortage issue is not a complete solution. Human errors are one of the most common reasons leading to a hack or data breach. Last year, hackers gained access to the personal accounts of a threat analyst at cyber-security firm Mandiant. While the hacking was limited to the defacing of his social media accounts, it is indeed alarming that hackers could gain access to personal details of an employee of a firm entrusted with the security of hundreds of global corporations.

One lesson to be drawn from this is that while lapses will occur, it is more reason still to build up sturdier defences, especially in the face of new and more menacing cyberthreats. For Asean to do so, convergence in policies and technical capabilities is critical. It is not enough to rely on one or two leading members to do the heavy lifting as weak links in a blocwide cyber architecture will render all vulnerable.

Link: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/aseans-cyber-defences-in-need-of-more-guards

9. Bangladesh bears brunt of Myanmar's crackdown on Rohingya

September 25, 2017

Syed Munir Khasru

Background

As Bangladesh struggles to cope with one of the worst man made human disasters in recent times, the Army Chief of Myanmar indulges into amnesia of convenience and the Nobel Peace Laureate continues to be in a state of denial of the tragedy of Rohingyas unfolding every day. Here is the piece carried today by The Straits Times, Singapore.

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As a Nobel laureate is in denial and a general is in a state of amnesia, Bangladesh continues to bear the brunt of 'ethnic cleansing'.

Since Aug 25, over 400,000 Rohingya refugees have fled the Myanmar state of Rakhine into neighbouring Bangladesh.

Bangladesh has been harbouring the Rohingya for decades, bringing the total asylum count, according to unofficial sources, to around a staggering 900,000.

No other developing nation has hosted this many Rohingya refugees for so many years. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, all Muslim-majority nations, together have given asylum to 560,000 Rohingya, much fewer than small, densely populated Bangladesh. Myanmar's other democratic neighbour, India, is seeking ways to repatriate its existing 40,000.

A HISTORY OF REPRESSION

Myanmar's current crisis springs from decades, even centuries, of rejection of the Muslim Rohingya people by the Buddhist-majority nation.

The Myanmar people tend to view the Rohingya as "illegal immigrants" from Bangladesh who refused to leave.

In fact, Rohingya have lived in Myanmar since the 12th century when it was an independent kingdom called Arakan. Hundreds of thousands more came from Bangladesh to Myanmar when the British imported labour. Over the centuries and decades, many intermarried into other ethnic groups. There are currently 1.1 million living in the country's western coastal Rakhine state, which borders Bangladesh.

Despite being in an ethnically diverse nation, both the Myanmar people and their administration consider the Rohingya illegal Bangladeshi immigrants who once came to their land as agricultural labourers and haven't left since.

They are considered to be security threats encroaching on Myanmar resources. (If such is the grounds for their expulsion, then the millions of Indian labourers who moved from one end of British India to the other during the 200 years of British rule in India must also be repatriated to their place of origin!)

After Burma's independence from the British in 1948, Rohingya were not included in the list of ethnic groups that could apply for citizenship, but those living in Burma for at least two generations were allowed to apply for identity cards that could later be turned into citizenship cards.

However, after the military coup in 1962, when citizens were required to have national registration cards, the Rohingya were given foreign identity cards that excluded them from having certain jobs and accessing certain public services.

The final blow came after 1982 when the Rohingya were excluded from applying for even the basic citizenship type from a category of three types, as they were required to prove that their family had been living in Burma before 1948, a proof requiring paperwork almost impossible to acquire.

Since 1962, there have been intermittent crackdowns on Rohingya, forcing them to flee to neighbouring regions from time to time. The scale and intensity of the crackdowns have intensified over the years and reached a critical point since the last attack on Aug 25.

Orchestrating the current crackdown from behind the scenes is Myanmar army chief Min Aung Hlaing, who in his official Facebook page has outright denied the Rohingya the right to proper treatment in Myanmar, labelling the entire crisis as a "Bengali issue".

The general either does not know history or is in a state of selective amnesia. In desperation to justify the terror and savagery unleashed by his forces, he has chosen to use the cloak of a democratic government that has been described by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as "not a perfect democracy... where the military has the upper hand".

THE DILEMMA FOR BANGLADESH

This exodus has been described as a "textbook example of ethnic cleansing" by UN human rights chief Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein. The exodus has been particularly difficult for Bangladesh, which now has to accommodate overwhelming numbers of Rohingya in a very short span of time in the city of Teknaf, which is one of its least developed regions. The Bangladeshi people and its government, in spite of having to deal with myriad social and political problems of their own, have been by and large accommodative to these incoming refugees.

Diplomatically, Bangladesh has been put in a tight situation. If it agrees to completely take in the refugees and integrate them like Germany did with Syrian refugees, then it gives an opportunity to Myanmar to direct all its Rohingya population into Bangladesh, accomplishing its goal of having no Rohingya in Myanmar.

When refugees are fleeing communal wars, famine or environmental catastrophe, it is inhumane to send them back to a place where no citizen is safe. But the case for Myanmar is very different as all other ethnic groups in the country are living functioning daily lives under whatever form of democracy it has.

By taking in all Rohingya, Bangladesh runs the risk of legitimising Myanmar's false claim that Rohingya are illegal Bangladeshi immigrants who must be returned to their country of origin where they belong.

It is rather unfortunate that Bangladesh has been put to such a conundrum by its next-door neighbour, with whom it did not have a bad start. In fact, Burma was one of the first countries to recognise Bangladesh in January 1972, and General Ne Win in April 1974 visited Bangladesh where he and Sheikh Mujibur Rahman tried to forge the foundation for a new relationship.

The Bangladesh government has yet to formulate a well-thought-out strategy and plan how to address the humanitarian crisis without giving Myanmar an excuse to send all its Rohingya population away.

For now, Bangladesh has already made an additional 810ha of land available for camps to house refugees in Teknaf. The Rohingya there will be given temporary shelter and other necessary relief materials, but will be registered, fingerprinted and excluded from mixing with the local community.

Bangladesh itself is reeling from frequent river erosion, coastal flooding and rapid climate change, and will soon be logistically unable to accommodate any more Rohingya flocking across its border. It has urged the international community to build pressure on Myanmar, instead of pushing Bangladesh to stretch its limit by taking in more refugees.

The UN, European Parliament and many others have branded the situation in Myanmar as inhuman and akin to ethnic cleansing.

Myanmar is in a state of denial about the issue. In her speech last week, Myanmar leader and Nobel Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi denied any incident of armed clashes or clearance operations by its military. Declining to use the term Rohingya, she chose to speak of Muslims who had fled and those who had stayed "to find out what was at the root of the crisis". Mr Salil Shetty, the secretary-general of Amnesty International, aptly questioned why Myanmar would restrict aid workers and international media from visiting the Rakhine state.

Even as the world debates the responsibilities of rich and poor nations to refugees, the reality is that Bangladesh, a natural disaster-prone, densely populated and resource-constrained country, is valiantly struggling to provide food, shelter and basic amenities to the most persecuted and helpless minority in the world - while a powerful army general in Myanmar has the luxury of roaming around in social media in a state of "amnesia of convenience", and a Nobel laureate, who in her Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech stated "ultimately our aim should be to create a world free from the displaced, the homeless and the hopeless", continues to be in a state of denial.

Link: http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/bangladesh-bears-brunt-of-myanmars-crackdown-on-rohingya

10. Nice to Singapore to Dhaka: Joining the dots on terrorism

July 22, 2016

Syed Munir Khasru

Background

The 1st two weeks of July have been tumultuous for the world. On July 1, was the hostage siege and armed attack on a popular café in the diplomatic enclave in Dhaka leaving scores of foreigners dead Italians, Japanese, Indian. On July 12, Singapore sentenced four radicalised Bangladeshi workers for funding the global terror outfit IS. Then, on July 14 in France, a Tunisian origin French drives a cargo truck into a crowd in Nice, killing 84 people and injuring more than 200.

The attached article in the leading Singaporean media outlet, the Straits Times analyzes the cause-effect dynamics behind such acts of terrorism and looks into the motivations behind support of terror cells such as IS. It argues that conventional means of counterterrorism is not enough to effectively respond to the rising waves of terrorism spreading around the world.

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Radical ideologies are spreading faster than before, and appealing to vastly different cross- sections of people. How can this be tackled?

In Bangladesh, a popular cafe in the capital, Dhaka, is attacked on July 1 by youngsters from well-educated, wealthy backgrounds who kill the cafe's Italian, Japanese, Indian and local patrons.

In Singapore, on July 12, four radicalised Bangladeshi construction workers are sentenced under the Internal Security Act for funding global terror outfit Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

In France, on July 14, a 31-year-old delivery driver - a Nice resident born in Tunisia who had shown no overt signs of radicalisation - drives a cargo truck into a crowd celebrating Bastille Day, killing 84 people and injuring more than 200.

Other than the common thread of terrorism, the disconnect of geography and distinct identity of these three countries and the perpetrators are significant. One, Bangladesh, is a progressive Muslim democracy and a developing country; the second, Singapore, is an energetic Asian economy known for its efficiency and discipline; the third, France, is a developed European country known for its liberal social values.

The attack by armed militants on a cafe in Dhaka's diplomatic enclave marks an alarming peak in the violence that has hit Bangladesh in recent times. Unlike previous attacks which singled out secular bloggers, LGBT activists and religious minorities, this was different. "Soft target" cafe customers - foreigners and locals who just happened to be there - were killed by the well- coordinated and heavily armed assailants.

The Bangladeshi nationals arrested in Singapore, meanwhile, were as well-organised as the militants of the Dhaka attack. According to court documents, each of the men had clearly defined roles, from financial to security and fighter councillor.

In the case of the France attack, ISIS claimed responsibility for it. "The person who carried out the operation in Nice, France, to run down people was one of the soldiers of Islamic State," the Amaq news agency affiliated with the militant group said on its Telegram account.

As the French authorities probe the attacker's motives, what is noteworthy is that while recruits of Al-Qaeda were mostly home-grown militants from madrasahs, ISIS is casting the net wider in its recruitment.

According to a policy paper titled "ISIS in the West" by International Security - part of the New America think-tank - as of last November, there were 604 militants from 26 Western countries who had left home to fight for ISIS. These fighters represent a demographic profile different from those of other militants, mostly from poor backgrounds and with little education. The average age of these Western male militants is 25 and for females, 22. Of the recruits, 60 per cent have middle- and high-school qualifications, 30 per cent have a university background, and 0.5 per cent hold higher education degrees.

Traditional approaches to counter-terrorism consisting of hard-power tactics might have been useful against groups like Al-Qaeda. However, countering the ideology such as that dispensed by ISIS, which radicalises cross-sections of people across continents, is a different game.

Conventional methods will not work in a situation where terrorism grows from within. It requires a deeper understanding of what motivates people of diverse socio-economic backgrounds and nationalities to ditch their family and friends to embark into uncharted territory filled with hatred and revenge, fury and carnage.

Whether it involves educated urban youth or poorly educated overseas workers or a frustrated loner, radical ideologies are spreading much faster and wider than before. The questions are: What is this new dimension in radicalisation, and what is the common thread pulling the diverse demographics together?

While pundits debate what results in such an ever-expanding ideological outreach, the reality is that extremists, in the form of religious zealots or free-speech advocates operating in extremes, do not bode well for any society.

The murder of innocents in Paris in the Charlie Hebdo headquarters was perpetrated by young men radicalised from cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad and images of US torture in Iraq.

Terrorist outfits such as ISIS exploit religious sensitivity by appealing to aggrieved Muslims.

Since 2005, there have been more than 10 incidences arising from caricatures of the Prophet printed in newspapers and magazines across Norway, Germany, Denmark, France and the United States. Ironically, the very societies being attacked are inadvertently ending up providing fuel to the propaganda machine of ISIS for new recruits.

Religious sensitivities can run deep and, if pricked recklessly, can lead to unforeseen consequences. Just as a cartoon exhibition on the Holocaust in Teheran upsets Jews, needless ridicule of Islam offends even the most liberal-minded Muslim.

Interestingly, there have been hardly any Muslims, including among the misguided extremists, who have offended either Christianity or Judaism. It is time to pause and reflect - and not just blame, shame and counter-attack in a vicious circle with more lives lost at the hands of terrorists mesmerised by a hate doctrine that has nothing to do with Islam.

It is important to look beyond the surface to understand the psyche and mindset of desperate people putting their lives at risk in pursuit of extreme ideologies. If the world continues to turn a blind eye to the sufferings of Palestinians or the tragedy taking place in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, where innocent civilians also die from drone attacks and bombs, it makes the task easier for radical outfits like ISIS to lure a broad spectrum of people into their fold. If global terrorism is to be tackled, a change is needed in both thinking and strategy. Unless the dots are connected, there are likely to be more tragedies.

Link: http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/nice-to-singapore-to-dhaka-joining-the-dots-on- terrorism

11. The real face of Bangladesh - moderate, secular

January 25, 2016

Syed Munir Khasru

Background:

Bangladesh has always been a country of peace and tolerance. The recent radicalization, particularly the Singapore incident involving deportation of Bangladeshis identified as extremists plotting terrorist attacks, has cast a shadow in the country's image outside. However, that fact is that by and large Bangladesh is a moderate Muslim state with democratic credentials with remarkable communal harmony, religious tolerance, and peaceful co-existence of different shades of people.

The attached article published in the Strait Times, Singapore argues that the true characteristics of the Bengalis is secular, moderate and inclusive and the importance of close coordination and cooperation among nations for effectively countering the growing threat of radicalization, not only in Bangladesh and South and Southeast Asia but the world at large as evidenced by the spate of recent terrorist attacks in almost every part of the world.

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The arrests of 27 Bangladeshi workers under the Internal Security Act is the first instance that a radical militant terror cell comprising foreigners has been uncovered in Singapore.

The Ministry of Home Affairs said last Wednesday that the authorities had arrested the Bangladeshis between Nov 16 and Dec 1 last year for supporting the armed jihad ideology of terrorist groups such as Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda.

According to both the Singaporean and the Bangladeshi law enforcers, some of the arrested men are loyal to Ansarullah Bangla Team, a Bangladeshi radical terrorist group that allegedly subscribes to the teachings of radical ideologues such as Anwar al-Awlaki, a Yemeni-American preacher with ties to Al-Qaeda, who was killed in a United States drone attack in September 2011.

While Singaporeans are understandably concerned about this episode and the large numbers of Bangladeshi workers in the country, the truth is that Bangladesh is a moderate democratic Muslim state known for its religious tolerance, liberal values and communal harmony.

Compared to other South Asian countries, Bangladesh has been quite successful in dismantling religious extremism. According to the 2015 Global Terrorism Index, Pakistan and India are ranked fourth and sixth respectively among the countries where terrorism is highly concentrated. Bangladesh is at 25th position.

Despite the confrontational nature of domestic politics, the country has made considerable strides in key socio-economic parameters like girls' education, microcredit, women's empowerment and world-class NGOs, and is one of the leading apparel exporters of the world.

The state of Bangladesh has secularism as one of its fundamental principles. Most Bengalis are exposed to Islamic preachings by the "Sufis" or the saints, whose teachings are centred on love for humanity.

However, like any other society, a divide does exist. The radical narrative offered by the extremists loathe the Sufis' form of religion, which is deemed as impure and not representing the true form of Islam. Religion-based politics and extremism crept into the country in the 1980s and 1990s, when militants came back from Afghanistan where they had fought the Soviets.

The rise of modern radical militant ideology is often traced back to the emergence of Wahabism that led to the formation of a kingdom in Central Arabia in the 19th century, currently known as Saudi Arabia. World War I saw Britain and France orchestrate the Arab Revolt that broke the control of the Turkish Ottoman Empire. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 and the transnational anti-Soviet alliance gave rise to extremism in South Asia, as the concept of defeating an enemy through violent struggle started spreading.

As the global spread of radical militant ideology is on the rise, Bangladesh is struggling to cope with self-radicalisation, particularly of youth, fostered by a host of factors, which includes the ease and availability of extremist materials, growing divide between the rich and poor and the seeming appeal of the grand community or "Ummah".

The Internet has long been a recruitment and propaganda tool for extremist organisations, and the preacher-based model of radicalisation via the Web allow close-knit individuals belonging to a group to become self-radicalised.

From the Sept 11, 2001 attackers to the Boston Marathon bombers, all the individuals belonged to close-knit groups. The terror plot in Singapore reflects the same kind of decentralised structure of the terrorist organisation.

Self-radicalisation is a threat to the security of any state. Yet, it is not easy to counter, as individuals who become self-radicalised often have underlying discontent over social, economic or political factors in their society.

Regional terrorist networks operating across South Asia also sought to expand their base in Bangladesh. The rise of Jamaatul Mujahidin Bangladesh, which aims to replace the current state of Bangladesh with an Islamic state based on syariah law, has unleashed a new wave of terrorism in Bangladesh. The government has been responding by suppressing these terror groups.

For Bangladesh, countering radicalisation is a multi-faceted effort that goes beyond the state. It has an active civil society and media which have come together with the government to address issues that are fuelling terrorism via self-radicalisation within the society.

It is quite likely that ISIS and other terrorist groups have their eyes on Bangladesh, the third- largest Muslim-majority country in the world. In September last year, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina raised her concerns as several British Bangladeshis were arrested as recruiters of ISIS, and asked Prime Minister David Cameron for "more steps on the ground" from the British government.

The Singapore incident is a poignant reminder of the importance of cooperation between national and international actors to combat terror groups.

Singaporeans are known for their tolerance and acceptance, and Home Affairs and Law Minister

K. Shanmugam aptly commented: "How our non-Muslims treat our Muslim brothers and sisters will decide what type of society we are, if we behave with suspicion and negativity, then our Muslim population will be further pushed. The harmonious society that we have built will be at risk."

For the Bangladeshi workers, he gave an equally strong message: "They have come here to work to benefit their families, stick to that. As long as they stick to that, they will be protected and nothing will happen to them."

Bangladeshi migrant workers and students have a critical role in the country's development, and Bangladesh needs to further strengthen its efforts to prevent the import and export of radical extremist ideology.

While the deportation of the Bangladeshis highlights the importance of being vigilant and of closer cooperation between the intelligence and law-enforcing communities of the two countries, it is equally important not to let the extremists negatively influence socio-economic relations and resulting opportunities for the people of both countries.

Link: http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-real-face-of-bangladesh-moderate-secular

12. Letter from a possible climate-change migrant

December 12, 2015

Syed Munir Khasru

Background

The COP21 Paris Agreement, though not perfect, is dubbed as a historic deal. In this open letter published in the Straits Times just before the deal was announced, the enormous human costs of an ineffective deal for the low-lying and deltaic countries like Bangladesh have been highlighted. If the leading economies fail to meaningfully mitigate the enormity of climate change, then the tens of millions of people displaced by environmental shocks have the right to be seek refuge as climate change migrants in countries responsible for the debacle.

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Dear Global Leaders and Activists,

As you continue efforts in Paris to produce a meaningful deal over climate change, the future of vulnerable countries hangs in the balance. Against such a background, this letter comes from a potential climate-change migrant seeking shelter in other countries in a future that may not be as distant as it seems.

As weather whiplashes make places unliveable, people like us are faced with stark choices of relocation or death. Being a citizen of Bangladesh, a low-lying deltaic country that ranks among the most vulnerable to climate change, I can see my shadow in the long queues of desperate Syrian refugees flooding the borders of Europe.

Last year saw the highest level of greenhouse gas emissions and the largest number of refugees in history, with around half being children. The first half of this year has been the hottest on record, with unusual heatwaves killing over 1,200 in Pakistan and more than 2,000 in India.

Since 2008, 161 countries have suffered from environmental disasters due to climate change causing mass displacement of people. The average number of people displaced from 2008 to 2013 is 27 million a year, but that could rise to 200 million once the full impact is felt.

The World Bank reports that climate change will cause extreme and frequent heatwaves and droughts, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, intensifying shortage of water, crop failure, food crisis and famine. The war and mass emigration from Syria are partly due to climate change. The 2007 to 2010 drought and crop failure led to the displacement of farmers, fuelling the conflict and uprising in Syria. If this is the scenario after the global temperature has risen only a fraction of a degree C, then the consequences of a 2 to 4 deg C temperature rise are fairly predictable.

Bangladesh is a low-lying deltaic country that is vulnerable to climate change.

According to a recent estimate, 20 million people from Bangladesh will be displaced and 17 per cent of the land will be submerged in the coming decades.

“United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon has said, 'Climate change carries no passport; emissions released anywhere contribute to the problem everywhere.' If the world leaders fail to rise to the occasion in Paris, then the flood of climate change migrants is inevitable.”

Low-lying deltaic regions and coastal countries like Bangladesh are most vulnerable. According to a recent estimate, 20 million people from Bangladesh will be displaced and 17 per cent of the land submerged in the coming decades. The International Organisation for Migration estimates that 500,000 people move to Dhaka every year. Seventy per cent of the slum dwellers have moved due to environmental reasons such as salinisation and destruction of livelihoods or increasing frequency and scale of natural disasters.

About 40 million people live on the coasts of Bangladesh and populated islands like Kutubdia face the threat of disappearance within five decades.

Anthropogenic climate change would dwarf the exodus caused by genocide in the 1971 Bangladesh liberation war, when 10 million refugees left their homeland in search of safety. Small island-nation Kiribati's President Anote Tong made a poignant observation on the possibility of the drowning of his homeland and his people taking shelter in Fiji.

The prospect of climate change-induced genocide, a term that refers to the wiping out of lives and livelihoods of whole populations, looms large on the horizon.

Paris holds good promises that can be realised only if all sides deliver on their professed good intentions. Half-hearted measures or an incremental approach will not do and the deal should have some teeth. Unless the COP 21 negotiations bar global warming at 1.5 to 2 deg C, the planet's survival would be at stake and the world should start getting prepared for the ultimate migrant crisis, that is, the climate-change migrant crisis.

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon has said: "Climate change carries no passport; emissions released anywhere contribute to the problem everywhere."

If world leaders fail to rise to the occasion in Paris, then the flood of climate-change migrants is inevitable. When the time comes, no one should blame migrants from countries like Bangladesh when we come knocking at the door looking for food and shelter.

The time to act is now, to prevent a catastrophe which will make the current migrant crisis look like a tea party. Time and tide wait for none, nor does the warming air, melting ice, rising sea, drifting land mass and, ultimately, shifting people. For those opting for the wait-and-see approach, by the time they realise and act, we may very well be on our way to crossing their borders. I would consider this open letter as my visa to one of those countries whose leaders did nothing when it mattered as my family and I lost all that we had - home, country and hope.

Link: http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-real-face-of-bangladesh-moderate-secular

13. Reflections on Modi's two years as Indian PM

May 25, 2015

Syed Munir Khasru

Background

Narendra Modi was sworn in as India’s 15th Prime Minister of India on May 26, 2014 after a landslide victory in the 2014 national elections. The Straits Times, Singapore declared Modi as the Asian of the Year in 2014 and an article from IPAG was carried by the ST on December 12, 2014 titled, “An Open Letter to Indian Prime Minister Modi, the Asian of the Year”

As two years have passed by, it is an appropriate time to reflect on Modi’s performance during this time as his BJP government is close to finishing half of its mandated term. While PM Modi has captured the global stage with his charisma, charm, and oratory skills, domestically his performance has not lived upto the great expectations generated in the economic front. Given the geopolitical importance of India in Asia, particularly the increased assertiveness of China and US looking into India as a strategic partner to counterbalance the same, Modi continues to be an important leader of this region.

While there are analysis and comments from the Indian stakeholders on the performance of the Modi government in the last two years, it is important to have objective insights from independent non-Indian experts. In other words, “Performance of the Modi Government’s Two Years: Perspectives from Outside In”.

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When The Straits Times declared Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as "The Asian of the Year" in 2014, I wrote: "Your promise of 'Acchhe Din' or 'Better Days', which electrified Indian voters, needs to be backed by solid performance" ("An open letter to Modi, ST's Asian of the Year"; Dec 12, 2014 ).

With the biggest victory in 30 years by any political party in India, Mr Modi led the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to a landslide win in the 2014 elections and was sworn in as India's 15th Prime Minister on May 26, 2014. As he is almost halfway through his term, it is time to reflect on how much he has walked the talk on the promises made during his election campaign.

Mr Modi has raised his profile on the global stage as a charismatic leader with his whirlwind tours to around 30 countries in a span of just two years. He has captivated the audience with remarkable oratory skills and vision on matters like foreign policy, development and investment. As per the World Economic Forum last year, he was the 10th most admired personality globally.

He has used social media to build an image in a way that few other global leaders have, becoming the second most followed political leader on Twitter after United States President Barack Obama. Nationally, in the recently held state elections in north-east Assam, the BJP won and also made gains in other states.

In his election manifesto, Mr Modi promised an "economic revival" through breaking the cycle of high inflation and high interest rates, prioritising job creation and opportunities for entrepreneurship. He promised to bring back credibility in the Indian government, restoring confidence domestically and internationally through consistent, long-term policies. He promised not only to spur economic growth, but also to make it stable and balanced. Foreign direct investment was to be allowed in sectors which created jobs, and also in infrastructure. Focus was on acquisition of niche technology and specialised expertise.

The Make in India programme was launched in September 2014 to transform India into a global manufacturing hub. Various sectors were opened up for investments, like defence, railway and space. The regulatory policies had been relaxed to facilitate investments and ease of doing business.

In 2013, India's economy was stumbling and, for the financial year ended on March 31, 2013, India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5 per cent, the slowest in a decade and slowing down creation of new jobs. The value of the Indian rupee dipped to an all-time low against the US dollar, resulting in higher prices for imported goods. The spectre of a potential crisis, brought about by rising inflation and crippling budget deficits, loomed large. Youth unemployment reached an all-time high of 18.1 per cent in 2012. In the quarter ended December 2012, India's current account deficit reached a record level of 6.7 per cent of GDP.

By contrast, economic growth in India accelerated in 2015 despite a double-digit decline in exports. GDP growth was at 7.6 per cent in the fiscal year 2015, but growth in GDP means little if it does not result in job creation, which is the most crucial aspect of Mr Modi's electoral prospect and essential for the country's social stability.

In the eight labour-intensive sectors - textiles, garments, leather, jewellery, business process outsourcing, handlooms, metals and automobiles - employment generation was 135,000 in 2015, compared with 490,000 the previous year and a much larger 1.25 million in 2009. Employment in these sectors actually declined in the last quarter of 2015.

Mr Modi's promise to make India open for business fell behind. India ranks 130 out of 189 on the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business index, the worst of all the Group of 20 countries.

Trade remains a problem, with US exporters to India lamenting exceedingly high tariffs and protectionist restrictions and years-long talks with the European Union all but stalled. While the government is pro-investment, it is also very restrictive about trade access, according to Mr Richard Rossow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Due to its size and location, India is a natural trading partner for South Asian countries. However, agreements emanating from the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), like the South Asian Preferential Trading Arrangement and the South Asian Free Trade Arrangement, have failed to break down trade barriers. Deep-seated enmity between India and Pakistan has stood in the way of broader regional cooperation in critical areas like trade and connectivity. Most SAARC countries rely heavily on developed nations as export destinations and, increasingly, import from China.

In the remainder of his term, Mr Modi needs to focus on employment generation, particularly in export- oriented and agro-processing industries as well as small and medium-sized enterprises, where growth prospects are robust. Regulatory and bureaucratic impediments also need to be removed.

On regional cooperation, India should lead from the front and security challenges in South Asia demand greater coordination between India and its neighbours. Some of the ongoing initiatives like the Chinese-led Bangladesh- China-India-Myanmar economic corridor and the Indian-led Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal motor vehicle agreement can open up new opportunities for closer economic cooperation and greater connectivity within the region.

If the peak of the first two years of Mr Modi has been capturing the international stage, in the next three years he needs to focus on the valleys on the home front.

Two of the most critical factors are employment generation and reducing income and wealth inequality.

A September 2015 report by Credit Suisse reveals that the richest 1 per cent of Indians own more than 50 per cent of the country's wealth. A weakened and disorganised opposition Congress may not be good enough for BJP's chances of winning the next elections. Historically, voters have often baffled the political pundits, including the election debacle of BJP in 2004. The then incumbent BJP, with its "Shining India" hype, apparently was poised for another win, which fell flat against the stark economic reality that many ordinary Indians were facing at that time. When BJP left office the last time, the richest 10 per cent of the Indian population was almost 7.5 times as rich as the poorest 10 per cent of the population.

I concluded in my article in December 2014: "Time and tide are on your side. What kind of ride you will make out of it, we Asians optimistically await to see."

For Mr Modi, there is still time but the tide never waits for too long.

Link: http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/reflections-on-modis-two-years-as-indian-pm

14. Nut rage case exposes cracks in the South Korean Society

January 10, 2015

Syed Munir Khasru

Background

The recent nut rage incident in South Korea where an airline executive threw a wild tantrum over the way she was served macadamia nuts has drawn international attention to the fact that the country’s remarkable economic success needs to be now complemented by a reboot in its socio-cultural ethos.

Korea is a sterling success story of economic transformation as after World War II it turned itself from a developing country to a developed country in a few decades. The country has seen emergence of a strong middle class, a vibrant civil society, a number of globally reputed think tanks, and a multi-party democratic political system. The world’s 13th largest economy has a remarkably well-educated workforce and has given birth to world’s leading brands, yet shrinking middle class and rising inequality is posing hazard to social cohesion.

A series of embarrassing incidents in last few years have underscored the way the country s ordinary people have suffered and seethed at the roughshod behavior of the country’s chaebol elites or their scions. The article reflects on Korea’s need to build on the strengths of its socio-economic progress to create a more inclusive and participatory society.

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The recent public furore over the South Korean nut rage incident culminated in the arrest of Heather Cho, daughter of Korean Air's chairman and a former executive at the airline. She has been charged with breaches of an aviation safety law linked to her outburst over the way she was served nuts on the plane.

Her father, the head of one of South Korea's family-run conglomerates or chaebols, apologised for what he termed as his daughter's "foolish act".

The event struck a deep chord among Koreans, being symptomatic of popular anger at the authoritarian antics of the elite in a society challenged by economic polarisation and disparities. South Korea - the world's 13th largest economy - remains a stellar example of transformation from a developing to a developed country in just a few decades.

Yet, there is a downside to its transformation story. The middle class has shrunk from 75.4 per cent of the population in 1990 to 67.5 per cent in 2010.

Since 2000, there has been a rapid fall in industrial employment in favour of the service sector. While women are predicted to outnumber men this year, the pay gap in favour of men is the highest among OECD countries. Household debt is as high as 164 per cent of disposable income, making life tough for ordinary Koreans. Poverty among the elderly is 49 per cent, and the suicide rate of the elderly tops the OECD ranking.

As chaebols continue to exercise a firm grip on industry and the service sector, the SMEs struggle to survive and grow.

In the wake of the global financial crisis, South Korea's President Park Geun Hye noted that the "Washington Consensus", a doctrine that emphasises the trickle-down effect of economic growth, no longer enjoys universal sway. The government now supports job creation and working mothers so that the fruits of growth can be enjoyed by broader sections of society, while the competition authority is working to create a level playing field for businesses.

Although South Korea is not immune to dynastic politics, President Park was directly elected to a five-year term with no possibility of re-election, resulting in regular leadership succession.

The economic and political transitions have led to profound changes in Korean society. The growing popularity of Korean movies and music worldwide has added to its soft power.

South Korea's rising regional clout and global standing calls for a social repositioning, consistent with the image and clout it is vying for on the world stage.

The nut rage case highlights the disparities in Korean society, as family-run chaebols are seen as the diametric opposite to the meritocratic ideal preferred by ordinary Koreans. Following the incident, the Korea Herald newspaper castigated the "feudal" management practices of chaebols. In April 2013, a Posco Energy executive assaulted an air stewardess for serving him food he did not like; in September that year, the CEO of a renowned outdoor clothing company stirred up controversy when he hit an airline employee over boarding issues. The publicity and outrage surrounding such incidents reflect a civil society that is more vocal over blatant wrongs, even of the elites who reign in the commanding heights.

But at the same time, Korea still suffers from a culture that seems to hardwire in its young an almost unquestioning submission to authority.

South Korea's economic success story must be followed by a reboot in its socio-economic paradigm. It needs to be responsive to the egalitarian expectations of society so that ordinary citizens can partake in its transition towards not only a 21st-century economy that is creative and dynamic, but also a modern society that is enlightened and inclusive.

Link: http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/nut-rage-case-exposes-cracks-in-s-korean-society

15. An open letter to India's PM Modi, ST's Asian of the Year

December 12, 2014

Syed Munir Khasru

Dear Prime Minister Narendra Modi, congratulations on being named as the Asian of the Year 2014 by The Straits Times.

In the seven months in office, you have limned out in powerful strokes your priorities and style of governance, and now the delivery time begins.

As the Asian of the Year and in the days to come, you will be judged by how you have walked the talk and this letter from a fellow Asian may help to put your thoughts and acts together.

In your East Asia Summit speech last month, you struck the right chord in saying that "Asean's success is an inspiration for broader integration in the Asia-Pacific region".

However, on South Asia, the recent South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (Saarc) Summit has been yet another talking shop, high on expectations and low on performance. With more than 70 per cent of the population, land and 80 per cent of total GDP of the region, India, for Saarc's sake, should be more magnanimous with its neighbours.

The squabble with Pakistan is perennial, and for you the challenge is how to water down the political inflammation over Kashmir and terrorism through positive economic diplomacy.

Japan and China have scores to settle on territorial issues, but that did not stop them from taking part in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations. You will have to lead the South Asian integration from the front and through bold acts and pragmatic concessions.

On the Asia-Pacific, you have been rightly charting your own path instead of playing second fiddle to any other power. The dynamic of the Indo-Pacific augurs a bigger role for India.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe sees India as a key strategic partner in his scheme of democratic security diamond, while Korea braces itself for inking a nu-clear deal with your country.

Be it Australia or Vietnam, the Asia-Pacific accepts India's rightful place in the evolving scheme of things. As India emerges, China already is an economic powerhouse and all sorts of comparisons are hazarded between the two Asian giants. The Chinese economy is around 11 per cent of the world economy, while India's is less than 3 per cent.

In hard power, China is way ahead of India. Although China is India's largest trading partner, the two neighbours with a long contentious land boundary are competitively building up infrastructure along the border.

In the maritime domain, while India has been rapidly upgrading its naval capabilities, it lags behind China as a sea power. Being militarily "softer" than China, you can have India tap into its substantial soft power where it can lead effectively.

The eminently exportable In-dian culture in the form of Indian spirituality, cuisine or films complements its image of a pluralist democracy promoting unity in diversity. Members of the Indian diaspora occupy leading positions in organisations such as Microsoft, Pepsi, Coca-Cola, as Indian multinationals go global.

The 2014 Nobel Peace Prize went to an Indian activist, which further boosts the inclusive social vision, while Mylswamy Anna-durai's innovation of cheap space technology shines a spotlight on India as an innovation incubator.

The global multilateral scene is undergoing momentous shifts, as initiatives like New Development Bank of Brics or the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) undercut the monopoly of the international development organisations still dominated by the West.

China has been the major player in these initiatives, set to contribute more than 40 per cent to the Brics bank and singlehandedly leading the massive AIIB or Silk Road initiatives. India also has to put its money where its mouth is.

India has set its sights on joining the elite club of nations through getting a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council. However, you first have to secure India's stature on her home turf before aiming at global acceptability...

With global leadership comes global responsibility. While India has a global image of non-violence a la Gandhi, its border skirmishes with neighbours and domestic insurgencies do not paint a pretty picture. While China has struck the pro-integration posture by promoting a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific, India must not be seen as the true-blue protectionist foot-dragger in the RCEP or WTO negotiations.

Your promise of "Acchhe Din" or "Better Days", which electrified Indian voters, needs to be backed by solid performance. Your neighbourhood-first policy, which began with Bhutan and Nepal tours, has to be carried through to yield results.

Your vision of Sabka Sath Sabka Vikas or "Participation of all, Development for all", applauded by US Secretary of State John Kerry, could be translated into a regional and global vision that champions an inclusive, multilateral and peaceful road to development.

You have the opportunity to forge the right linkages, and time and tide are on your side. What kind of ride you will make out of it, we Asians optimistically await to see.

Link: https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/an-open-letter-to-indias-pm-modi-sts-asian-of-the-year