Table of Content

  1. The geopolitics in the Bangladesh election results

January 17, 2024

Syed Munir Khasru

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Bangladesh held its national elections on January 7, 2024 amidst violence and protests as the polls became embroiled in controversy. The ruling Awami League and allies achieved a resounding victory by getting 225 out of the 300 contested seats. The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), whose leader and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia is imprisoned under allegations of corruption, boycotted the polls, demanding that elections be held under a neutral caretaker government, the constitutional provision of which was abrogated by the Awami League after it came into power in 2009.

Bangladesh’s political history around past elections remains problematic and the nature of politics, confrontational. In the previous elections of 2014 and 2018 under the Awami League, the party faced similar allegations of electoral manipulation, irregularities, and violence, drawing criticism from international election observation missions.

Regional and global geopolitics at play

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Once overlooked on the global stage, Bangladesh has ascended as a rising economic powerhouse in South Asia with 7.1% annual GDP growth in 2022, an economy exceeding $400 billion, and population of over 165 million. This strategically located nation has been at the centre of a geopolitical tug-of-war, with regional and global powers such as China, India, Russia and the United States vying for influence.

As its closest neighbour with shared historical, economic, social and cultural linkages, India harbours deep strategic interests in Bangladesh. Bilateral trade is nearing $15 billion annually and agreements across a range of issues such as investment, counterterrorism, energy, and river water sharing underscore a close bilateral relationship. Bangladesh is India’s crucial partner for balancing China’s growing regional economic and diplomatic clout, including the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure financing. A stable Bangladesh, seen as a counterweight offsetting instability from neighbours such as Pakistan and Afghanistan, keeps India actively invested in its neighbour. It is no surprise that the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi promptly congratulated Sheikh Hasina after her win, committing to fortify the partnership between India and Bangladesh.

The U.S. has been critical of the Bangladesh government for democratic shortcomings, the suppression of human rights and muzzling press freedom. America’s messaging is torn between advancing core strategic interests by maintaining healthy ties with Bangladeshi authorities while upholding democratic values, as echoed in the U.S. Department of State pre-electoral press statement: “We are taking steps to impose visa restrictions on Bangladeshi individuals responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh.” 

China and Russia’s responses

In contrast, Yao Wen, Ambassador of China to Bangladesh — China is Bangladesh’s number one trading partner with annual bilateral trade exceeding $25 billion — stated, “Election is completely an internal issue of Bangladesh...Bangladesh knows the kind of election required.” Under its BRI, China has financed over $10 billion worth of ports, bridges, highways and other critical infrastructure.

Post elections, the U.S. has aligned with other observers in asserting that the elections were neither free nor fair and largely non-participative. On the other hand, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning felicitated the Awami League for its victory, “China congratulates Bangladesh on successfully holding its national election as scheduled and congratulates the Awami League on winning the election”.

Moscow has drawn Bangladesh closer through financing one of the nation’s largest infrastructure projects, the Rooppur 2,400-megawatt nuclear power plant worth over $12 billion. With major investments at stake, Russia has taken a keen interest in Bangladesh’s election. In a unique act of collaboration, when a Russian ship carrying nuclear materials was denied entry due to U.S. sanctions in late 2022, India intervened to receive the cargo and transported it by road to the construction site Russia also congratulated Sheikh Hasina on her election victory; Alexander Mantytsky, Ambassador of Russia to Bangladesh,, was received at her official residence. In a similar vein, prior to the elections, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova had quipped in 2023, “We have repeatedly highlighted attempts by the US and its allies to influence the internal political processes in Bangladesh”.

Problems before Bangladesh
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The 2024 election results have evolved into a geopolitical battleground driven by Bangladesh’s increasing economic and strategic heft. Geopolitical considerations make it a little tricky for the U.S. and its allies to conduct normal business with Bangladesh. The extent to which they may take actions remains uncertain. The readymade garment industry is a significant source of foreign exchange earnings for Bangladesh and any restrictions imposed by the U.S. and European Union could pose a serious challenge as they import a significant bulk of Bangladesh’s readymade garments.

In 2007, when the opposition BNP tried to manipulate elections, the United Nations issued a stern warning, indicating a potential halt to Bangladesh’s involvement in peacekeeping operations; this led to the military-backed caretaker government stepping in to hold elections in 2008 which the then opposition Awami League won. This time, apart from criticism, whether the UN would go any further remains to be seen.

Last but not the least have been surging living costs triggering protests in recent months as the government grapples with the challenges of dealing with soaring energy import prices, diminishing dollar reserves and a weakening local currency. The International Monetary Fund highlighted multiple shocks to Bangladesh’s economy in its post-COVID-19 pandemic recovery, aggravated by supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures due to the Ukraine war. For Ms. Hasina’s government, the months ahead are expected to be fraught with challenges, both at home and abroad, as she tries to manage a weakening economy and delicately balance geopolitics with national interests.

Weblink: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-geopolitics-in-the-bangladesh-election-results/article67745554.ece

  2. India, Pakistan can step up direct trade

September 5, 2023

Syed Munir Khasru

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The cessation of India-Pakistan direct trade for a significant period is a result of enduring political tensions and conflicts between the two. In August 2019, Pakistan halted trade with India in response to constitutional amendments made in the Jammu and Kashmir region. India slapped 200 per cent tariff on Pakistani imports earlier that year, when Pakistan’s Most Favoured Nation (MFN) designation was removed in the aftermath of the Pulwama terrorist incident. In 2020-21, trade with Pakistan was worth $329.26 million.

Despite sporadic attempts to enhance trade ties, such as the creation of the Wagah-Attari border crossing and the implementation of trade pacts like the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA), advancements have been constrained due to ongoing political discord.

Following the suspension of trade in 2019, a few relatively less freight sensitive products — such as dry dates — that were formerly traded directly began coming via indirect channels to enter each other’s markets. Previously, Indian merchandise such as fabric, skincare products, and jewellery freely made their way into Pakistani markets, gaining popularity among local consumers. Tensions between the neighbours disrupted cross-border trade, leading to a void that was filled by Indian goods entering through Afghanistan, China and Dubai.

In the past, Indian fabric would enter Pakistan via Chakoti and Rawalkot, while the Samjhauta Express and the Dosti Bus facilitated transportation of goods from Delhi to Lahore. Shortage of raw material for the textile industry due to low domestic cotton production compelled Pakistan to lift the ban on cotton imports from India, as importing cotton and sugar from countries like the US and Brazil is expensive and time-consuming. A bundle of cloth imported from India via train costs ₹150-200 per kg. When the train service was discontinued, importing through Dubai cost ₹2,500-3,000 per kg.

During the first quarter of fiscal 2022, India’s exports to Pakistan — primarily driven by sugar, organic compounds and pharmaceutical products — rose significantly; 72 per cent over the previous year, to touch $205 million. Although Pakistan had initially halted all imports from India, it later permitted import of pharmaceuticals and drugs following the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020.

Dubai has served as an alternative route for trade between India and Pakistan. Dubai has enabled trade between the two countries by acting as a neutral ground for the respective enterprises to conduct business without being hampered by political tensions and border crossings. Though traders typically assess the cost, ease of doing business, and market access when conducting business, it is the convenience that draws Indian and Pakistani traders to trade through Dubai.

Items demanded by India and Pakistan from each other are traded indirectly, if logistically feasible. Jewellery, machinery, medications and chemicals are examples of low-volume, high-value commodities. Businesses can afford to take a longer route, particularly via Dubai, because the increased cost are passed directly to consumers. However, direct routes are unlikely to be substituted by circuitous or informal routes for time and cost-sensitive items. For example, traders are reluctant to grapple with price hikes or delivery delays for perishables like fruits and vegetables as well as freight-sensitive commodities like cement, gypsum, and glass.

Direct trade could have brought additional benefits like reducing transportation costs, expediting delivery schedules, facilitating interaction among businesses, and establishing direct trade channels that could unlock potential economic cooperation and foster beneficial trade relationship.

The Pakistan government’s decision to allow vegetable imports from India via Wagah was triggered by the destruction of onion and tomato harvests by torrential rains last year. India’s trade with Pakistan increased dramatically in the June 2022 quarter, thanks to Pakistan’s willingness to restore commerce, though mostly of necessities, with India. Sugar and medicines topped Indian exports to Pakistan in the three months ending June 30, 2022. Some experts link the surge in direct commerce also to Pakistan’s new leadership and the country’s mounting economic woes, compounded by high global commodity prices.

What lies ahead?

Recent developments offer an opportune moment for India to consider reducing its import duties, currently at 200 per cent, on products that can benefit its industries. Steps by Pakistan, though driven by necessity, have sparked hope for additional measures to improve bilateral relations, including the resumption of sports-related visas by India after a three-year hiatus, the scheduling of a long-delayed meeting between the Indus Water Commissioners, and establishment of peace at the Line of Control (LoC) following over 5,000 ceasefire violations.

If India-Pakistan trade resumes through the land crossing at Attari (India)-Wagah (Pakistan), it can be a win-win situation. The Pakistani consumer would profit from lower pricing for vital items, particularly agricultural commodities. Wheat flour prices in Pakistan have risen dramatically in recent months due to shortage caused by a variety of events, including the Russia-Ukraine war and floods. North Indian farmers, particularly those from Punjab, can sell their agricultural products, mainly wheat, at a better price in Pakistan.

Indirect trade routes like Dubai entail additional intermediaries, increasing transaction costs. Direct trade routes would help cut these costs, making trade efficient and profitable. Through direct economic engagements, both countries can promote people-to-people exchanges, cultural interaction, and business collaborations, paving the way for improved bilateral ties.

Weblink:https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/india-pakistan-can-step-up-direct-trade/article67270663.ece 

  3. South Asia’s climate migration is a ticking bomb

June 6, 2023

Syed Munir Khasru

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June 5 marked the 50th anniversary of World Environment Day which was started by the United Nations in June 1972 at the Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment. Even after 50 years, 40% of the world’s population — 3.5 billion people — live in areas that are particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change, including water scarcity, drought, heat stress, sea level rise, and extreme events such as floods and tropical cyclones. The World Development Report on Migrants, Refugees, and Societies states, “As the world struggles to cope with global economic imbalances, diverging demographic trends, and climate change, migration will become a necessity in the decades to come for countries at all levels of income”.

Area of climate displacement hotspots

South Asia houses the world’s most impacted climate displacement hotspots, including the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region, coastal areas, island nations, and deltaic and semi-arid regions. Land regions which are prone to high environmental vulnerability include Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka affected by sea level rise and coastal floods. While Bhutan, Afghanistan and Nepal are affected by glacial melt and temperature rise, small island nations such as the Maldives face the threat of submersion.

The situation is exacerbated by high population density, poverty, and inadequate infrastructure. By 2050, nearly 216 million South Asians could be displaced due to climatic reasons. In 2020, cyclone Amphan alone displaced five million people across South Asia. In 2015, Nepal’s Gorkha earthquake displaced 2.6 million people, and left over 6,00,000 homeless. Over 7.9 million people were displaced by the floods in Pakistan, in 2022.

Costs of displacements

By 2050, globally there could be 1.2 billion climate refugees. In South Asia, there have been over nine million internal displacements in 2020, making it the region having the highest number of new displacements due to climate change. Climate displacement results in job losses, food insecurity, and an overall overcrowding of resources, creating further migration and incurring other social and economic costs.

Poor economic capabilities reduce the adaptive capacity of communities to climate change events and promote migration. Internally displaced people migrate for better livelihood opportunities, and safety. The economic costs associated with climate migration in South Asia include loss of skilled labour, and reduced productivity in agriculture, fisheries, and forestry. Displacement can also lead to social costs such as the breakdown of social networks and communities, mental health issues, social unrest, and conflict.

Changes in agricultural patterns and water availability force people to migrate to urban areas. Such rural-urban migration overburdens cities that already operate at capacity. Climate migration creates a multiplier effect on pre-existing threats such as overcrowding, and conflicts over resources sharing. The correlation between climate vulnerability and violence is notable. In 2020, 95% of conflict-related displacements were reported in climate vulnerable countries.

Supporting the climate refugees

Because of disasters ranging from floods to desertification, South Asia would have an estimated 50 million climate refugees by 2050. The importance of improving resistance and resilience by introducing sustainable solutions such as adopting salinity-resistant crops, making coastal areas resistant, and strengthening infrastructure will be deterministic. Such structure gaps need to be corrected to ensure that communities are not forced to migrate. The underlying economic reasons of poverty and poor infrastructure play a crucial role in the efficacy of a climate adaptation method.

Weak policy responses

Despite the alarming magnitude of climate displacement in the region, responses from governments and international agencies have been inadequate. Most countries in South Asia lack comprehensive policies to address climate displacement, and international aid has been insufficient to meet the needs of affected communities. Missed targets of climate funding also hold back developing nations from financing their climate goals and building resilience. Building climate-resilient infrastructure and improving disaster preparedness are essential to support adaptation and mitigation measures.

Governments and international agencies must recognise the severity of climate displacement in South Asia and mitigate its effects. Further, governments in the region must develop targeted policies that address the specific needs of climate-displaced communities. Apart from developing resilience, policies should focus on providing alternative livelihood opportunities and social protection programmes to help affected communities cope with the impacts of climate change.

Implications for COP

Although the “loss and damage” framework developed at COP27, is aimed at supporting most impacted countries which is viewed as an integral part of climate justice, concerns remain on whether wealthy countries would be willing to pay any “liabilities” or “reparations”. The amount of funding required, and the designation of funders are questions still unanswered. European countries worry that they may have to bear a large responsibility as oil and gas suppliers such as Saudi Arabia, or a large economy such as China may take refuge under the UN definition of “developing country”.

While human mobility could not find its place on the COP agenda, the final COP27 text identified “displacement”, “relocation”, and “migration” as some of the concern areas that would be addressed by the loss and damage financing. The UNHCR raised the question of refugees and displaced people at the COP27; even after five decades of World Environment Day, climate migrants are yet to find their voice in the global platform.

Weblink: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/south-asias-climate-migration-is-a-ticking-bomb/article66935590.ece 

  4.A G20 presidency to amplify South Asia’s voice

January 21, 2023

Syed Munir Khasru

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As the only G20 member from South Asia and when multilateralism itself is experiencing a crisis, India’s G20 leadership is an ideal opportunity for New Delhi to build an effective platform

At a time of both potential and peril, India has taken over the G20 presidency. The global food, energy, and financial crises have been exacerbated by the climatic crisis and India has a unique opportunity to lead from the front of one of the most influential global platforms. India has identified several priorities, i.e. green development, climate finance and LiFE (lifestyle for environment); accelerated, inclusive and resilient growth; accelerating progress on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); technological transformation and digital public infrastructure; multilateral reforms; and women-led development. Given that the priorities are global, the motto “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam”, or “One Earth, One Family, One Future”, underscores how interconnected our world is.

Problems that need group action

The majority of problems that South Asian countries face are global in nature, transcend national borders, and necessitate group effort. The economic forecast for South Asia is bleak for the coming year. In August 2022, inflation in Sri Lanka reached an all-time high of 64.3% as food prices rose by 84.6% compared to a year ago. Damage caused by floods and economic losses in Pakistan amount to more than $30 billion with an estimated restoration cost of more than $16 billion. As global fossil fuel prices have increased, the Government of Bangladesh hiked fuel prices by more than 50% that triggered inflation of 7.5% in September, 2022.

India needs to promote collective action at the G20 that results in economic stability and peace in the region. Providing a common regional voice is not an easy undertaking at a time when economies in the region are under considerable stress and there are emerging geopolitical polarisations on the horizon. Rising debt burdens of South Asian economies represent a potential crisis that require urgent attention. India has an opportunity to effectively voice the socio-economic aspirations of South Asia’s 1.8 billion people, representing one-third of the global poor and as also one of the world’s fastest growing markets.

As South Asia’s largest country with the largest economy and significant global clout, India is well poised to represent the subcontinent at these international fora. In addition, three G20 emerging economies — India, Indonesia, and Brazil — collectively make up the G20 troika to be followed by another important G20 developing member, i.e. South Africa, the G20 President for 2025. Hence, India can draw attention to issues that are significant for South Asia and the entire developing world, ensuring greater momentum for those nations not represented in the G20. Some of the key challenges facing South Asia and the developing world include a post-pandemic recovery, a surge in commodity prices following inflationary pressures, and inclement weather induced by climate change.

Energy, health and finance

The majority of South Asian nations produce their energy from fossil fuels; 63% of the region’s emissions of greenhouse gases come from energy generation. Since dollars are short in supply, it has become challenging for countries to keep up with energy production. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) used to generate 70% of the energy needs of Bangladesh, while coal used to generate roughly 70% of the electricity needed in India. Green energy transition is one of the top priorities for this region. Improving health infrastructure is quite important for South Asia and the G20 agenda. The discussion of global cooperation needs to go beyond technology transfers and financial aid to cover losses and damages brought on by climate change. For South Asia, it is important that multilateral organisations and development finance institutes supporting economic development and good governance are reformed as these countries are major stakeholders for these global institutes. India needs to prioritise all these issues not only to make the G20 an effective platform but also to be the voice of billions in the region and beyond.

Charting the way forward

Being the only G20 member from South Asia, India has added responsibilities since many non-G20 nations (particularly those in the global South) look upon India to represent their interests at the G20, whose choices have an impact on their future prosperity and well-being. All eyes are on India’s G20 leadership to provide a road map to tackle some of the major challenges before the subcontinent at a time when multilateralism itself is experiencing a crisis of relevance.

Because wealthy economies have disproportionate power and influence in determining the rules of engagement on international cooperation, trade, and finance, global governance is historically tilted in their favour. Often it ends up having a negative impact on the ability to provide realistic solutions to constituents such as South Asia to address issues such as development, trade, climate action, energy transition and digital transformation. India should use its G20 chair to reform international governance procedures and ensure fair negotiations. As sceptics keep debating the G20’s value and significance, the South Asian giant has an opportunity to initiate deliberations, discussions, and debates, in turn resulting in policies that provide pragmatic solutions to pressing concerns affecting its immediate neighbourhood and beyond.

Weblink: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/a-g20-presidency-to-amplify-south-asias-voice/article66414380.ece

  5.A lot is at stake for India-Bangladesh ties

September 05, 2022

Syed Munir Khasru

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While they have deepened ties, the Hasina and Modi governments have failed to resolve long-standing issues

In August, while addressing devotees gathered to celebrate Janmashtami, Bangladesh Foreign Minister Abdul Momen requested the Indian government to ensure that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina stays in power when Bangladesh goes to the polls next year. He claimed that both India and Bangladesh would gain political stability by ensuring this. These out-of-the-norm comments from the senior cabinet member created a stir on both sides of the border. Senior leaders of the ruling Awami League distanced themselves from these remarks, while India maintained silence. Mr. Momen’s comments came before Ms. Hasina’s visit to India from September 5 to 8, 2022.

Trade and connectivity

Following the conclusion of the seventh round of the India-Bangladesh Joint Consultative Commission in June, the two neighbours have expanded their partnership to include Artificial Intelligence, Fintech, cybersecurity, startups, and connectivity. Trade will be a focal point during Ms. Hasina’s visit as the two countries gear up to sign a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The two Prime Ministers are also expected to inaugurate a joint venture power plant soon.

CEPA comes at a time when Bangladesh is set to lose the duty-free and quota-free market-access facility to India after 2026 when it graduates to a developing country. Bangladesh is India’s sixth largest trade partner with bilateral trade rising from $2.4 billion in 2009 to $10.8 billion in 2020-21. Bangladesh imports critical industrial raw material from India on which its exports are reliant. According to a World Bank working paper, Bangladesh’s exports could rise 182% under a free trade agreement. This could become 300% if combined with trade facilitation measures and reduced transaction costs. Bangladesh also could improve several manufacturing industries by leveraging Indian expertise in service sectors.

India and Bangladesh have implemented several projects to boost eastern India-Bangladesh connectivity. India’s connectivity projects with ASEAN and Bangladesh will open up the region to economic growth. Bangladesh has expressed its interest in joining the India-Myanmar-Thailand highway project. India-Bangladesh bilateral waterway trade will get boosted as India can now use the Mongla and Chittagong ports. India is rallying Bangladesh to divert its exports through Indian ports in place of Malaysian or Singaporean ports. Enhancing connectivity through India’s Northeast and Bangladesh is important for bilateral cooperation. Currently, three express trains and international bus services operate between Indian and Bangladesh.

The sharing of the waters of the Teesta has remained a thorny issue between the two countries since 1947. For West Bengal, Teesta is important to sustain its impoverished farming districts which comprise 12.77% of its population. For Bangladesh, the Teesta’s flood plains cover about 14% of the total cropped area of the country and provide direct livelihood opportunities to approximately 7.3% of the population. The countries are expected to sign at least one major river agreement during the upcoming trip.

In 2015, India and Bangladesh resolved the decades-long border dispute through the Land Swap Agreement. Indian Home Minister Amit Shah recently reviewed the security arrangements in the Assam-Meghalaya-Bangladesh tri-junction, which used to a smugglers’ route. In 2019, India enacted the National Register of Citizens and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, which created an uproar within and beyond the borders. Ms. Hasina termed the move as “unnecessary”. But her government has mostly kept silent on India’s “internal matter” even as political commentators and citizens have feared it could have ripple effects for Bangladesh. The detainees caught at the border that year claimed they were Bangladeshi citizens who were returning to the country on failing to obtain Indian citizenship.

Regional geopolitics

Chinese inroads into the neighborhood have been a cause of worry for India. China has been actively pursuing bilateral ties with Bangladesh. Bangladesh had successfully approached China for a mega project to enhance Teesta River water flow. Bangladesh also requires China’s support in resolving the Rohingya refugee crisis. Bangladesh is the second biggest arms market for China after Pakistan.

Bangladesh has also been warming up to Pakistan. The two shared frosty ties for decades after Pakistani politicians made unwarranted comments on the International Crimes Tribunal set up by Bangladesh. Although memories of 1971 remain, Bangladesh has expressed its interest in establishing peaceful relations with Pakistan.

In its election manifesto for the 2018 Bangladesh general elections, the ruling Awami League emphasised cooperation with India, including in sharing Teesta waters. Teesta remains a concern for the Bangladeshi population which is dependent on the river for their livelihood. Ms. Hasina has worked on strengthening bilateral ties and has uprooted all anti-India insurgency activities within Bangladesh by leading from the front. But the unresolved Teesta issue does not put her in good standing with the electorate. Many believe that her bold and pragmatic steps in strengthening relations with India have not been adequately reciprocated by Delhi and Kolkata.

India-Bangladesh ties witnessed the lowest ebb during the 2001-2006 tenure of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). In 2004, a 10-truck arms and ammunition haul took place in Chittagong. Investigators believed that the delivery of the smuggled arms was intended for the United Liberation Front of Asom, a militant group seeking Assam’s independence from India. These illicit activities created tensions between the countries. The BNP’s short-sighted and unwise handling of relations with India cost it dearly, for Delhi’s corridors of power lost confidence in the party. But by openly flouting its warm relations with India as a safeguard for continuity of power, the Awami League is not playing smart with the electorate either.

In Bangladesh, there is a prevailing perception that India’s goodwill towards the country is aligned to one particular political ideology or school of thought as opposed to Bangladeshi society at large. For India, the challenge is to earn the trust and confidence of Bangladeshis across the spectrum and strata. Ms. Hasina has deepened ties with the Narendra Modi government, but the two have failed to resolve long-standing issues such as Teesta water-sharing and killings at the border. The question is, how these factors may affect elections in Bangladesh. For India it will take more than cosy relations with one particular government to have long-term stable relations with its most trusted friend in the neighbourhood. Just as Bangladeshis remain grateful to India for the generous support extended by India during the Liberation War of 1971, they are equally sensitive to being treated with respect and fairness, no matter who rules their country.

Weblink: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/a-lot-is-at-stake-for-india-bangladesh-ties/article65849383.ece?homepage=true 

  6.The goal of an energy-secure South Asia

April 26, 2022

Syed Munir Khasru

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While universal coverage can catalyse the region’s economic growth, energy trade must be linked to peace building

South Asia has almost a fourth of the global population living on 5% of the world’s landmass. Electricity generation in South Asia has risen exponentially, from 340 terawatt hours (TWh) in 1990 to 1,500 TWh in 2015. Bangladesh has achieved 100% electrification recently while Bhutan, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka accomplished this in 2019. For India and Afghanistan, the figures are 94.4% and 97.7%, respectively, while for Pakistan it is 73.91%. Bhutan has the cheapest electricity price in South Asia (U.S.$0.036 per kilowatt hour, or kWh) while India has the highest (U.S.$0.08 per kWh.) The Bangladesh government has significantly revamped power production resulting in power demands from 4,942 kWh in 2009 to 25,514 MW as of 2022. India is trying to make a transition to renewable energy to provide for 40% of total consumption, while Pakistan is still struggling to reduce power shortage negatively impacting its economy.

The electricity policies of South Asian countries aim at providing electricity to every household. The objective is to supply reliable and quality electricity in an efficient manner, at reasonable rates and to protect consumer interests. The issues these address include generation, transmission, distribution, rural electrification, research and development, environmental issues, energy conservation and human resource training.

Geographical differences between these countries call for a different approach depending on resources. While India relies heavily on coal, accounting for nearly 55% of its electricity production, 99.9% of Nepal’s energy comes from hydropower, 75% of Bangladesh’s power production relies on natural gas, and Sri Lanka leans on oil, spending as much as 6% of its GDP on importing oil.

Electrification, growth, SDGs

Given that a 0.46% increase in energy consumption leads to a 1% increase in GDP per capita, electrification not only helps in improving lifestyle but also adds to the aggregate economy by improving the nation’s GDP. For middle-income countries, the generation of power plays an essential role in the economic growth of the country. More electricity leads to increased investment and economic activities within and outside the country, which is a more feasible option as opposed to other forms of investments such as foreign direct investment.

The South Asian nations have greatly benefited from widening electricity coverage across industries and households. For example, 50.3% of Bangladesh’s GDP comes from industrial and agricultural sectors which cannot function efficiently without electricity. Nepal’s GDP growth of an average of 7.3% since the earthquake in 2015 is due to rapid urbanisation aided by increased consumption of electricity. On the other hand, Pakistan suffered a drop in industrialisation of textiles by 9.22%, wiping off U.S.$12.4 billion from the industry in 2014 due to power shortages. India leads South Asia in adapting to renewable power, with its annual demand for power increasing by 6%.

Solar power-driven electrification in rural Bangladesh is a huge step towards Sustainable Development Goal 7 (which is “Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all”) by 2030 and engaging more than 1,00,000 female solar entrepreneurs in Sustainable Development Goal 5 (which is “achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls”). India’s pledge to move 40% of total energy produced to renewable energy is also a big step. Access to electricity improves infrastructure i.e., SDG 9 (which is “build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation”). Energy access helps online education through affordable Internet (SDG 4, or “ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all”), more people are employed (SDG 1: “no poverty”) and are able to access tech-based health solutions (SDG 3, or “ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages”).

Green growth, green energy

South Asian leaders are increasingly focused on efficient, innovative and advanced methods of energy production for 100% electrification. Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his ‘net zero by 2070’ pledge at COP26 in Glasgow asserted India’s target to increase the capacity of renewable energy from 450GW to 500GW by 2030. South Asia has vast renewable energy resources — hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and biomass — which can be harnessed for domestic use as well as regional power trade. The first-ever Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) benefits such as poverty reduction, energy efficiency and improved quality of life were realised when there was India-Bhutan hydro trade in 2010.

The region is moving towards green growth and energy as India hosts the International Solar Alliance. In Bangladesh, rural places that are unreachable with traditional grid-based electricity have 45% of their power needs met through a rooftop solar panel programme which is emulated in other parts of the world. This is an important step in achieving Bangladesh’s nationally determined contributions target of 10% renewable energy of total power production.

Regional energy trade

The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) prepared the regional energy cooperation framework in 2014, but its implementation is questionable. However, there are a number of bilateral and multilateral energy trade agreements such as the India-Nepal petroleum pipeline deal, the India-Bhutan hydroelectric joint venture, the Myanmar-Bangladesh-India gas pipeline, the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) sub-regional framework for energy cooperation, and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, rumoured to be extended to Bangladesh.

‘South Asia’s regional geopolitics is determined by the conflation of identity, politics, and international borders. Transnational energy projects would thus engage with multiple social and ideational issues’ which is a major limitation for peaceful energy trade. If energy trade is linked and perceived through the lens of conflict resolution and peace building, then a regional security approach with a broader group of stakeholders could help smoothen the energy trade process. The current participation in cross-border projects has been restricted to respective tasks, among Bhutan and India or Nepal and India. It is only now that power-sharing projects among the three nations, Nepal, India, and Bangladesh, have been deemed conceivable.

India exports 1,200MW of electricity to Bangladesh, sufficient for almost 25% of the daily energy demand, with a significant amount from the Kokrajhar power plant in Assam worth U.S.$470 million. Bhutan exports 70% of its own hydropowered electricity to India worth almost U.S.$100 million. Nepal on the other hand, not only sells its surplus hydroelectricity to India but also exported fossil fuel to India worth U.S.$1.2 billion.

What is needed

South Asia is reinforcing its transmission and distribution frameworks to cater to growing energy demand not only through the expansion of power grids but also by boosting green energy such as solar power or hydroelectricity. Going forward, resilient energy frameworks are what are needed such as better building-design practices, climate-proof infrastructure, a flexible monitory framework, and an integrated resource plan that supports renewable energy innovation. Government alone cannot be the provider of reliable and secure energy frameworks, and private sector investment is crucial. In 2022, private financing accounted for 44% of household power in Bangladesh, 48.5% in India, and 53% in Pakistan. Public-private partnership can be a harbinger in meeting the energy transition challenges for the world’s most populous region.

Weblink: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-goal-of-an-energy-secure-south-asia/article65354570.ece 

  7.Get these wrinkles out of the South Asian textile story

March 21, 2022

Syed Munir Khasru

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Ensuring government support for financial incentives, upgrading technologies and reskilling labour are key challenges

South Asia became a major player in the global textiles and clothing market with the onset of the third wave of global production. Bangladesh joined the league in the 1980s, owing to the outbreak of the civil war in Sri Lanka. Supportive industrial policy was an instrumental factor in the 1990s, with zero duty on raw material and capital machinery, as access to global markets led to the industry’s boom. Bangladesh overtook India in exports in the past decade as Indian labour costs resulted in products becoming 20% more expensive.

Standing of countries

Lower production costs and free trade agreements with western buyers are what favour Bangladesh, which falls third in the line as a global exporter. The progress of India and Pakistan in readymade garments is recent when compared to their established presence in textiles. India holds a 4% share of the U.S.$840 billion global textile and apparel market, and is in fifth position. India’s exports later witnessed a larger volume of business, following a 0.8% dip in 2019. Pakistan saw a 24.73% rise in textile exports (2021-22), bagging an amount of U.S.$10.933 billion.

India has been successful in developing backward links, with the aid of the Technical Upgradation Fund Scheme (TUFS), in the cotton and technical textiles industry. However, India is yet to move into man-made fibres as factories still operate in a seasonal fashion. Pakistan remains very focused on cotton products; it falls behind due to skilling and policy implementation issues. Bangladesh has been ahead of time in adopting technology. Bangladesh also concentrates on cotton products, specialising in the low-value and mid-market price segment. The country faces the challenge of high attrition and skilling which results in higher costs. Sri Lanka attained the most progress in ascending the value chain. Progress in training, quality control, product development and merchandising are attracting international brands to Sri Lanka.

In leap ahead, the hurdles

The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) has been shifting focus from production machinery to integrating technology in the entire production life cycle. The production cycle incorporates all digital information and automation including robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), virtual reality, 3D printing, etc. Robotic automation exemplifies production efficiency, especially in areas such as cutting and colour accuracy. In the days ahead, comprehensive restructuring can be expected in systems’ adaptation to human and market needs. With change comes opportunities as well as challenges. The Asian Development Bank anticipates the challenges of job losses and disruption, inequality and political instability, concentration of market power by global giants and more vulnerability to cyberattacks.

India’s production centres are operational at near full capacity, with companies contemplating business and production capacity expansions. With a 7% unemployment rate, India faces the challenge of job creation in the wake of increased automation. The World Bank expects this trend to accelerate in the post-COVID-19 market. The 4IR may result in unemployment or poor employment generation, primarily affecting a low skill workforce. The integration of skilling and technological investments will play a vital role in phasing out obsolete jobs, and adapting to new ones. It is imperative to ensure living wages and ease of access to education. The market switched from ‘seasonal fashion’ to ‘fast fashion’, and later to ‘accurate fashion’, reducing lead time. Digitalisation and automation in areas such as design, prototyping, and production are key in order to stay abreast, and in controlling production quality and timely delivery. Quick transportation becomes important in costing control, as reshoring and near-shoring gain currency. While a transition may be easier for large factories, medium and small-scale entities may suffer. Adoption of new technology and automation is closely linked to in-product basket diversity creation too.

On sustainability

Sustainability is also an important consideration for foreign buyers. Bangladesh’s readymade garments initiated ‘green manufacturing’ practices to help conserve energy, water, and resources. Textile and apparel effluents account for 17%-20% of all water pollution. Many Indian players are focusing on input management over tailpipe management. Sustainable practices such as regenerative organic farming (that focuses on soil health, animal welfare, and social fairness), sustainable manufacturing energy (renewable sources of energy are used) and circularity are being adopted. The Indian government is also committed to promoting sustainability through project sustainable resolution.

Tax exemptions or reductions in imported technology, accessibility to financial incentives, maintaining political stability and establishing good trade relations are some of the fundamental forms of support the industry needs from governments.

The labour lead

Access to affordable labour continues to be an advantage for the region. In addition, a country such as India with a very high number of scientists and engineers could lead, as is evident in the areas of drones, AI and blockchain. India’s potential lies in its resources, infrastructure, technology, demographic dividend and policy framework. The creation of a Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution is indicative of India’s intent. The U.S. trade war on China owing to human rights violations along with its economic bottlenecks, opens doors for India and Pakistan as they have strong production bases. Similar to China, India has a big supply — from raw material to garments. Bangladesh has also risen as a top exporter in a cost competitive global market.

 Bangladesh’s investments in technology in the past decades are an added advantage. On gaining significant knowledge and advanced technologies over the last 30 years, it is in prime position. Bangladesh has envisioned the year 2041 for technological advancement, especially in ICT. Pakistan imported machinery (+77.5%) worth U.S.$504 million by the first half of 2019-2020. India’s proposed investments of US$1.4 billion and the establishment of all-in-one textile parks are expected to increase employment and ease of trade. India extended tax rebates in apparel export till 2024, with the twin goals of competitiveness and policy stability. Labour law reforms, additional incentives, income tax relaxations, duty reductions for man-made fibre, etc. are other notable moves.

A map out

Cotton product dependency and a focus on only major export destinations may diminish the market scope for South Asia. Diversification with respect to technology, the product basket and the client base are to be noted. Adaptability in meeting the demands of man-made textiles, other complex products and services are also important. Newer approaches in the areas of compliance, transparency, occupational safety, sustainable production, etc. are inevitable changes in store for South Asia to sustain and grow business. Reskilling and upskilling of the labour force should also be a priority for the region to stay aloft in the market. Finally, there is a need for governments’ proactive support in infrastructure, capital, liquidity and incentivisation.

• Lower production costs and free trade agreements with western buyers are what favours Bangladesh, which falls third in the line as a global exporter.

• Bangladesh’s readymade garments initiated ‘green manufacturing’ practices to help conserve energy, water, and resources.

• Newer approaches in the areas of compliance, transparency, occupational safety, sustainable production, etc. are inevitable changes in store for South Asia to sustain and grow business

  8. A lesson from Bangladesh: Protect the mother tongue

February 22, 2022

Syed Munir Khasru

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The blood-stained streets of Dhaka in 1952 are a powerful reminder of the vitality of our mother languages even today

International Mother Language Day is observed every year on February 21 to honour those in Bangladesh who sacrificed their lives to protect their mother tongue, Bangla, against the then rulers of West Pakistan and to honour the ethno-linguistic rights of individuals across the world.

Language movement

The transition from East Pakistan to Bangladesh has a blood-stained story behind it. For the first time in world history, a mother tongue became the focal point for an independence movement. In March 1948, just months after the birth of Pakistan, Pakistani leader Mohammad Ali Jinnah declared that the state language of Pakistan would be Urdu. All official communication from then was to be in Urdu and the language was made compulsory in schools. Meanwhile, Bangla, which is a completely different language, was removed as a subject in schools and from stamps and currency.

Students of Dhaka University began their protest on February 21, 1952 against the ‘Urdu only’ policy. The police began indiscriminate firing on the students, killing many of them. Since then, February 21 is observed as ‘Shaheed Dibosh (Martyrs’ Day)’ in Bangladesh to pay tribute to Shaheed Salam, Barkat, Rafiq, Abdul Jabbar, Shafiur Rahman, and many more. Their passion for their mother tongue and devotion towards their motherland forced the Pakistani leadership to make Bangla one of the official languages of Pakistan in 1954.

The language movement not only gave rise to the Bengali national identity in the then Pakistan, but also became the stepping stone for the Bengali nationalist movement, the six-point movement, the student movement in 1962, the uprising in 1969 and the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War. This is perhaps the only movement in history that started with protecting linguistic and cultural rights and ultimately led to the birth of an independent nation, Bangladesh.

Language is one of the most important characteristics of the foundation of a culture. Cesar Chavez said, “A language is an exact reflection of the character and growth of its speakers.” Language is the most powerful tool that forges social, economic, and cultural ties. Today, multilingualism and intercultural communication are growing phenomena. Due to globalisation and interconnectedness, vastly spoken languages have gained supremacy and indigenous languages have been increasingly localised. The haste to receive better job opportunities has led to people learning foreign languages and resulted in the disappearance of mother tongues. Linguistic diversity is increasingly threatened. According to the United Nations, at least 43% of the estimated 6,000 languages spoken in the world are endangered. The UN proclaimed the period between 2022-2032 as the International Decade of Indigenous Languages, “to draw global attention to the critical status of many indigenous languages around the world and to mobilize stakeholders and resources for their preservation, revitalization, and promotion.”

The Internet is vastly dominated by English and a handful of other languages. The digital presence of most people who speak indigenous languages and dialects is nearly zero. Individuals often discredit their own language. Since it is not on the Internet, the validity of the language is questioned, and learning or practising it further is often discouraged. From keyboards to programming languages to incompatible hardware and software to website domains, social media and applications, the linguistic divide prevents a majority of local speakers from being a part of the rest of the online world.

Ray of hope

International Mother Language Day 2022 was celebrated across the world with the theme, ‘Using technology for multilingual learning: Challenges and opportunities’. It highlighted the role of technology in developing multilingual education and in supporting the development of quality teaching and learning for all. The fight for local languages to be on the web has been supported by tech giants like Amazon and Facebook, as their products are available in a few local languages. Google Translate has brought numerous regional cultures closer together. The translations are undertaken by AI and native language experts who have experience and a solid academic background.

Hundreds of languages are spoken, written, and translated across the world. Linguistic diversity defines our socio-cultural identity, connects us with our heritage, and is the foundational pillar of civilizations. The blood-stained streets of Dhaka in 1952 remain a powerful reminder of the vitality of our mother languages even today. 

  9. A thorn in Pakistan-Bangladesh relations

December 16, 2021

Syed Munir Khasru

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Five decades after Bangladesh’s victory in 1971, an apology from Islamabad for events of the period is overdue

December 16, “Bijoy Dibosh”, is celebrated in Bangladesh as the day marking the country’s formal victory over Pakistan after then chief of the Armed Forces of Pakistan, General Amir Abdullah Khan Niazi, surrendered with 93,000 forces to joint forces led by the Bangladeshi freedom fighters, popularly known as “Mukti Bahini” and the Indian armed forces. The systemic ignorance towards and disrespect of the civil and political rights of then East Pakistan’s Bengali population by their counterparts in West Pakistan sparked mass protests in March 1971 which ultimately ended in a brutal conflict. Over three million Bangladeshis lost their lives and thousands of women were subjected to assault. As Bangladesh commemorates 50 years of its historic victory, it is worth revisiting exactly why Pakistan’s leadership has remained hesitant so far to offer a formal apology to those aggrieved and what this means for the future of Bangladesh-Pakistan relations.

 Broken pledges

The humiliating nature of the defeat left strong feelings within Pakistan’s military establishment, reflected in the increase in the country’s defence budget — from $635 million to over $1 billion bythe end of the 1970s. Despite then Pakistan leader Zulfikar Ali Bhutto being fully aware of the scale of atrocities committed, according to the Hamoodur Rahman (former Chief Justice of Pakistan) Commission Report from July 1972, Pakistan put forth a carefully crafted “forgive and forget” narrative during the tripartite agreement in 1974. This was the first instance when Islamabad came close to acknowledging excesses committed by “some” of its armed forces and promised to hold them accountable at war crime tribunals that led to Bangladesh handing over hundreds of Prisoners of War as a reconciliatory measure.

Five decades later, however, none has been brought to book. During the state visit of former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf to Bangladesh in 2002, he expressed regret for the death enmasse in 1971 while visiting a national war memorial but fell short of the formal apology that Bangladesh has been seeking. Despite acknowledging a susceptibility to official state propaganda that branded Bengali demonstrators of the 1970s as “terrorists, militants, insurgents, or Indian-backed fighters” in his autobiography from 2011, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan has toed the official state narrative on the issue.

Pakistan has attempted to gesticulate its intent to strengthen diplomatic relations and economic ties with Bangladesh in recent years without necessarily making the concerted efforts needed for reconciliation. Largely perceived to be under control of the armed forces, Pakistan’s official position and narrative on the events of 1971 are a fair distance from case studies elsewhere. Particularly after Pakistan’s Foreign Office dismissed Bangladesh’s fresh demands in 2009 for an apology for the atrocities committed in 1971.

Unwise moves

Opposed to Bangladesh’s independence, the Jamaat-e-Islami and its student wing, Islami Chatro Shangha, along with splinter groups such as the Razakar, al-Badr, and al-Shams were among the local outfits that aided Pakistan’s armed forces. After coming to power in 2009, the current Bangladesh government led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has prosecuted and in some cases executed senior leaders of the Jamaat-e-Islami which did not go very well with their counterparts in Pakistan’s political establishment. In particular, the resolution by Pakistan Parliament led by MP Sher Akbar Khan in 2016 protesting hangings of war criminals of 1971 drew sharp reaction and protest from Bangladesh. In 2015, the University of Dhaka cut off ties with the Pakistani establishment in protest against the cold-blooded assassination of numerous prominent intellectuals, academicians, and thinkers of Bangladesh on December 14, 1971 just few days before the country formally earned victory.

In May 2021, 113 years after Germany’s colonial government massacred approximately 80,000 Herero and Nama people in Namibia between 1904-08, Foreign Minister Heiko Maas acknowledged it as a “genocidal” event, seeking forgiveness and offering $1.35 billion to spend on development projects over 30 years. Nazi war criminals accused of participating in the Holocaust continue to stand trial and any attempt of denial is met with punishment.Pakistan’s attempts at whitewashing their responsibility for 1971 have been criticised and Prime Minister Hasina has shared with the Pakistani High Commissioner to Bangladesh how it is difficult for Bangladesh to forget about atrocities by Pakistan in the 1971 war.

Country comparison

Bangladesh’s progress in the last 50 years has been remarkable in key performance indicators such as exports, social progress, and fiscal prudence, all of which eclipse Pakistan’s growth during the same period.Bangladesh’s GDP growth, for example, stands at 7.9% while Pakistan is at 1.5%. Bangladesh’s GDP per capita had grown by 9% in 2020 rising to $2,227 while Pakistan remains at $1,543. Bangladesh’s export volume and foreign exchange reserves are almost twice as that of Pakistan’s as well as its position on the global passport index, microcredit financing, and women’s rights. In literacy, Pakistan lags behind with 58% to Bangladesh’s 75%. In 1971, Pakistan and Bangladesh remained neck-and-neck on fertility

rates — seven live births per woman. Today, according to the World Bank, Bangladesh’s fertility rate stands at 2.01 while Pakistan is at 3.45, indicating the enormous progress the former has made.

Safety and security remain pressing concerns as well. Pakistan has lost many civilians to terrorist attacks between 2000 and 2019. Concerns of terrorism, radicalisation, and extremism continue to hurt Pakistan’s potential

and credibility, making it unsafe to travel to, and in many instances unattractive to trade and invest. On the other hand, Bangladesh has been praised for its tough stance against any form of fundamentalism and radicalisation and boasts a moderate Muslim majority country with liberal and progressive socio-cultural values.

For a new chapter

For Pakistan to bury its past to start a new chapter in its relations with Bangladesh, taking responsibility and ensuring accountability for events of the period is a critical first step. Expressing hope and sincerity for reconciliation and friendship stands hollow without any mention of 1971. Before one can start forgetting, one has to be able to forgive. How can Bangladesh forget when Pakistan has not even offered an apology which could have started the healing process for a country which saw millions die, thousands assaulted and where there was much shedding of so much blood and tears in the process? This is a much needed step to heal historical wounds and help both countries forge better diplomatic and economic relations in the coming days for realising a shared vision for the region’s future. 

10. COP26 pledges need a new climate of cooperation   

November 26, 2021

Syed Munir Khasru

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Developing economies such as India are burdened with other issues and require the help of the developed North

As world leaders converged in Glasgow for the COP26 (October 31-November 12, 2021), there were some notable absentees. The Presidents of China and Russia, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, leaders of the world’s second and fourth largest carbon emitters, failed to make it to Glasgow. Hence, understandably, all eyes fell upon India, the world’s third largest carbon emitter, and which included what kind of commitment Prime Minister Narendra Modi would be making.

There was cautious optimism when India finally announced its net zero target, even though India’s pledged deadline is 2070 – two decades after than the desired deadline of the year 2050. After the net zero target, the United States and Europe led the next biggest climate goal, the Global Methane Pledge, to bring down global methane levels significantly by 2030; this was signed by as many as 104 countries. Despite being the third-largest methane emitter, India was not signatory. India also was not part of the pledge to deforestation despite hosting the world’s largest contiguous mangrove forest: the Sundarbans.

Pursuing green energy

India has been a promoter of green energy to reduce carbon emission. Although the country is yet to significantly transit to renewable energy, accounting only 22.5% of nationwide electricity production, India has been leading the global movement towards solar power. The country cofounded the International Solar Alliance (ISA) along with France – an alliance with more than 120 countries to promote solar energy. To strengthen India’s stand for renewable energy like solar energy, India has signed to the Glasgow Breakthrough Agenda in this year’s COP26 along with over 35 other nations to promote clean energy and make it more affordable.

Compared to China’s 28.4%, the U.S.’s 19.8% and some North European country’s 100% transition to renewable energy for power, there is much room for improvement in India. However, there are two key struggles that India has to deal with when transitioning to green energy: the consumption of the world’s second largest population base and the lack of adequate available renewable energy options. Countries such as Iceland and Norway have the privilege to depend almost entirely on hydroelectricity adequate enough for a small population such as theirs. Countries with a similar population scale to India such as China and the U.S. have been relying significantly on nuclear power to cut down on carbon emissions which India cannot facilitate due to not being a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. India did commit to transiting to green energy for meeting at least half of nation-wide power consumptions. However, the country requires significant measures to do so, which includes bringing down the cost of renewable energy to make it more affordable and attractive to the general public and private businesses.

The Indian government has been promoting green energy to abide by its COP21 climate commitments. The Government plans to make wide use of hydrogen fuel as a better substitute of fossil fuels and is promoting renewable energy such as solar powered energy production by reducing tariffs and even providing for subsidising which are falling. The Indian renewable energy industry is up against an immense financial challenge with a recent report estimating the requirement of ₹2.61 trillion to install a balance capacity to achieve its target of 175 gigawatts of renewable power by the year 2022.

Difficult choices for the South

India has faced numerous economic adversities in recent years. The country is still reeling from the impact of demonetisation in 2016 that left GDP growth rate falling ever since. Foreign investment in India has also been declining since 2018.

The COVID-19 pandemic that hit in early 2020 further pushed down GDP growth, severely impacting several industries. Scarce resources are being used for economic survival. The Government is desperately trying to aid its economy by subsidizing various industries during the COVID-19 pandemic as well as vaccinating its population to prevent another wave as worse as the COVID-19 Delta variant wave that had hit India earlier. The country is going through a resource constraint, having to choose between priorities.

Meeting climate goals with a population of 1.3 billion while combating the novel coronavirus pandemic has been a challenge for the world’s largest democracy. India does not have privilege like its peers from the developed world to financially support all of its economy, people and the climate. It is no surprise that Mr. Modi had to ask the international community for a new financial commitment to achieve the climate goals. More so, since the annual $100 billion pledge by developed countries to the developing countries and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) back in COP16 is yet to be disbursed.

If powerful developing economies such as India are to play a constructive role in tackling climate change and achieving net zero target, the developed North needs to shore up its support by taking a common responsibility to help developing countries and LDCs to pursue climate goals as they already face the daunting tasks of fighting poverty, providing basic health-care services, and ensuring access to education. People without food when they are hungry, medicine and doctors when they are ill, and schools for their children cannot be expected to either relate or appreciate the adversities of climate change being debated in a place and country which most of them have not even heard of and leaders they hardly know.

11. A region of rising intolerance

October 26, 2021 

Syed Munir Khasru

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It is time for South Asia’s political leadership to form a united front against all forms of religious extremism

This month, Durga Puja pavilions, Hindu temples and homes were attacked in Bangladesh. These attacks followed rumours that the Koran had been desecrated at a pandal. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s administration assured the Hindus of security and deployed additional security forces in districts which had witnessed attacks. A few hours after the Prime Minister’s assurance, an ISKCON temple was attacked. At least five people have been killed in these attacks.

A legacy of conflict

Religious tension is not new in the Indian subcontinent. Conflicts often break out among different religious groups, and minorities are targeted. The 1992 Babri Masjid demolition in Ayodhya caused riots which led to the deaths of about 2,000 people. The 1993 Bombay bombings, the 2019 Easter attacks in Colombo, and the frequent terror attacks in Pakistan over the past decade are other examples. In the case of Bangladesh, where Hindus make up about 9% of the population and Muslims 90%, attacks against the Hindu minority are either retaliations to acts committed in the name of religion within the country or neighbouring India, or due to the extremist views of some Muslims. For instance, the demolition of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya instigated a violent response in Bangladesh and mobs started demolishing multiple Hindu temples.

Faith-based conflicts take place both within and among countries. The India-Pakistan rivalry extends from the religious and political fields to sports — cricket matches between the two teams see a bigger audience than usual. The separation of Bangladesh from Pakistan in 1971 was an example of how culture too plays a pivotal role in separating or uniting a country.

In the recent past, right-wing parties have been ruling the subcontinent, gaining the support of the dominant religious population and undermining religious minorities. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in India and Tehrek-e-Insaaf (PTI) in Pakistan are examples. The controversial Citizenship (Amendment) Act passed in Indian Parliament in 2019 was a faith-based test of citizenship and instigated rallies and protests across the subcontinent. Ms. Hasina called the law “unnecessary”. The rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan was supported by PTI leader and Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan. The subcontinent is evolving towards a polarisation of Hindus and Muslims.

Varying responses

In Bangladesh, what is appreciable is that the government takes strict action against religious extremist groups and also promotes the celebration of festivals of all religions by ensuring security at religious sites on festival days. Muslims visit Hindu temples on Durga Puja or celebrate Holi and invite Hindus on Eid. Bangladesh has developed a strong anti-terrorism wing from its security forces to tackle religious extremist attacks. The anti-terrorism unit has prevented countless planned attacks and jailed numerous extremist groups. Some have been sentenced to death, including those involved in the attack of the local café Holey Artisan in July 2016. Bangladesh has not only cracked down on terror groups since the café attack but also prevented gatherings of religious protesters to prevent violence. For example, a recent gathering of Muslim extremist groups in protest against France’s anti-Islamic laws was disrupted by law enforcers.

In India, on the other hand, the government came under criticism first for not taking prompt action against cow vigilantes who were attacking poor Muslims and then for enacting the CAA. Protests against the law broke out across the nation and the administration responded to them with divisive rhetoric and heavy-handedness.

Unfortunately, the South Asian political leadership is bereft of a vision and the courage needed to rise to the occasion and stand together to send an unequivocal message of zero tolerance against all forms of religious extremism and bigotry. When religion becomes a tool for achieving political mileage, the resulting flames of hatred and intolerance quickly spread. This has the potential of becoming a wildfire that devours everything that comes along the way. Such fire and fury can only hurt this region’s socioeconomic aspirations. The rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan is a wake-up call to South Asia’s political leadership to form a united front against all forms of religious dogma and extremism. Seventy-five years after Partition, harmony, religious coexistence and tolerance are all under threat. Can the region afford such myopia when there are so many burning issues to resolve such as poverty alleviation, climate change and food security?

12. A climate change narrative that India can steer   

September 24, 2021 

Syed Munir Khasru

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The Glasgow COP26 meet offers New Delhi a chance to update its Nationally Determined Contributions to meet targets

In a keynote speech on September 8 in a seminar organised by a think tank, R.K. Singh, Union Minister for Power, New and Renewable Energy stated, “Environment is something we are trustees of and have to leave behind a better environment for our children and great grand children.” However, a recent report, “Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region” by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) reveals that India has warmed up 0.7° C during 19012018. The 2010-2019 decade was the hottest with a mean temperature of 0.36° C higher than average. Heatwaves continued to increase with no signs of diminishing greenhouse gas emissions despite lower activity since the novel coronavirus pandemic. Prolonged exposure to heat is becoming detrimental to public health, especially the poor unable to afford support for coping with the heat. Assessment by the MoES shows that India may experience a 4.4° C rise by the end of this century.

India has also suffered two of the 10 most expensive climate disasters in the last two years. Supercyclone “Cyclone Amphan” that hit India in 2020, cost more than USD13 billion even as the country was just recovering from “June-October Monsoon Flooding” that cost USD10 billion and around 1,600 lives. It was India’s heaviest monsoon rain in the last 25 years and the world’s seventh costliest. In early 2021, India suffered two more cyclones: Cyclone Tauktae hitting the west coast and Cyclone Yaas from the east.

India’s rising IDPs

According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, India’s Internally Displaced Populations (IDPs) are rising due to damaging climate events. Uttarakhand residents began deserting their homes after the Kedarnath floods in 2013 due to heavy precipitation that increases every year. Within 2050, rainfall is expected to rise by 6% and temperature by 1.6° C.

To make things worse, India lost about 235 square kilometres to coastal erosion due to climate change induced sea-level rise, land erosion and natural disasters such as tropical cyclones between 1990-2016. About 3.6 million out of 170 million living in coastal areas were displaced between 20082018. Recent figures are more alarming with 3.9 million displaced in 2020 alone, mostly due to Cyclone Amphan. India’s Deccan plateau has seen eight out of 17 severe droughts since 1876 in the 21st century

(2000-2003; 2015-2018). In Maharashtra and Karnataka (the heart of the Deccan Plateau), families deserted homes in 2019 due to an acute water crisis. Hatkarwadi, a village in Beed district of Maharashtra State, had as few as 10-15 families remaining out of the previous population count of 2,000 people.

Good policies, weak practices

India held the top 10 position for the second year in a row in 2020’s Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI). The country received credit under all of the CCPI’s performance fields except renewable energy where India performed medium.

India vowed to work with COP21 by signing the Paris Agreement to limit global warming and submitted the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) with a goal of reducing emissions intensity of GDP by 33%-35% and increasing green energy resources (non-fossil-oil based) to 40% of installed electric power capacity by 2030.

India cofounded with France at COP21, in 2015, the International Solar Alliance (ISA) — a coalition of about 120 countries with solar rich resources— which aims at mobilising USD1 trillion in investments for the deployment of solar energy at affordable prices by 2030. Despite leading ISA, India performed the least in renewable energy according to the CCPI’s performance of India. The question is, are these global alliances and world-leading policies being practised or are merely big promises with little implementation?

Experts agree that India can achieve the 2° C target of COP15 Copenhagen in 2009. But it also observes that the country is not fully compliant with the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal of the NDCs and there are still risks of falling short of the 2° C goal. According to India’s carbon emission trajectory, the country is en route to achieve barely half of the pledged carbon sink by 2030. To achieve the Paris Agreement’s NDC target, India needs to produce 25 million-30 million hectares of forest cover by 2030 — a third of current Indian forestation and trees. Going by the facts, it seems India has overpromised on policies and goals as it becomes difficult to deliver on the same.

Why COP26 matters

The Glasgow COP26 offers India a great opportunity to reflect on the years since the Paris Agreement and update NDCs to successfully meet the set targets. India is expected to be the most populated country by 2027, overtaking China, contributing significantly to the global climate through its consumption pattern. India is in a rather unique position to have a significant influence on global climate impact in the new decade.

Alok Sharma, President of the COP26 met Minister for Environment, Forest and Climate Change Bhupender Yadav in August to persuade India to deliver a more ambitious NDCs for 2030 to which the Minister responded by stating, “India believes that climate actions must be nationally determined… UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement for developing countries should be at the core of decision-making….”

Being one of the observer states of the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) as well as an influential member of COP26, India has the ability to improve its global positioning by leading a favourable climate goal aspiration for the world to follow. The country has the opportunity to not only save itself from further climate disasters but also be a leader in the path to climate change prevention. 

13. South Asia’s emerging digital transformation   

August 7, 2021 

Syed Munir Khasru

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

There is evidence that the region’s post-pandemic adoption to digital life will shape its future prosperity.

COVID-19 has forced South Asia to take a quantum leap in digitalisation. The shift to remote work and education has propelled an unprecedented spike in Internet penetration, with even smaller nations such as Nepal recording almost an 11% increase in broadband Internet users. For a region with threadbare public health infrastructure, the digitization of health-care services was a watershed moment, providing novel solutions to the public health crises.

In India, COVID-19 accelerated the launch of the National Digital Health Mission, enhancing the accessibility and the efficiency of health-care services by creating a unique health ID for every citizen. The pandemic-induced suspension of bricks-and-mortar businesses spurred South Asia’s embrace of e-commerce, boosted by digital payment systems. Bangladesh alone witnessed an increase of 70-80% in online sales in 2020, generating $708.46 million in revenues (https://bit.ly/3CpGy79).

The yawning divide 

As one of the world’s poorest regions, a wide digital divide persists in access and affordability, between and within the countries of South Asia. Despite having the world’s second largest online market, 50% of India’s population are without Internet with 59% for Bangladesh and 65% for Pakistan (https://bit.ly/3itJUOQ).

With monetary and health assistance schemes distributed online, 51% of South Asian women were excluded from social protection measures during the pandemic (https://bit.ly/3xoe7ml). Children too were at the receiving end, with 88% lacking access to Internet powered home schooling (https:// uni.cf/2TYn5cp). This disruption could permanently put children out of school, place girls at risk of early marriage, and push poor children into child labour costing economies billions of dollars in future earnings.

Businesses too have paid a heavy price for the gap in digital solutions, whereby many South Asian firms failing to embrace e-commerce or other cloud-based technologies to survive the financial chaos of the novel coronavirus pandemic. The region recorded a 64% decline in sales, with small and women-led firms faring the worst (https://bit.ly/3lE2HbR). With COVID-19 transforming work life, the acute skills gap among youth will continue, creating unemployment.

Digital inevitability, dividend 

Digital transformation is a global imperative with adoption of advanced technologies such as cloud computing, artificial intelligence, the Internet of things, Big Data, etc., key to success. From banking to manufacturing and retails, the role of digital technology is too important to be overlooked as countries embrace the digital revolution to drive their development agenda.

At the forefront of Asian digitalization are countries such as Singapore, Japan, and South Korea recognized as global technological hubs. Owing to increased smartphone and Internet penetration, coupled with the availability of trusted digital payment platforms, China’s e-commerce industry is said to reach $3 trillion in 2024 (https://bit.ly/37qITjW).  The digital boom in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies is pushing a “common market” initiative, fostering regional economic integration and enhancing global competitiveness.

South Asia has also made significant strides in the adoption of digital technologies. The Digital Bangladesh Vision 2021 envisages transforming Bangladesh into a prosperous, digital society, whereas India’s biometric identification systems intend to improve the efficiency of welfare programmes through digital innovation. However, the region still has a long way to go.

E-commerce could drive the post-pandemic growth in South Asia, providing new business opportunities and access to larger markets. In India, e-commerce could create a million jobs by 2030 and be worth $200 billion by 2026. Fintech could drive significant growth and reduce poverty by building financial inclusion. For instance, Pakistan’s digital financial sector could boost GDP by 7%, if faster payment gateway, lower costs and fast track licensing are put in place. A timely, inclusive, and sustainable digital transformation can not only bolster productivity and growth but also serve as a panacea for some of the region’s socio-economic divides.

A checklist for change 

To reap the dividends of digital transformation, South Asia needs to address legal, regulatory and policy gaps as well as boost digital skills. A robust digital infrastructure is a sine qua non and there exists a huge financing gap. India alone needs an annual investment of $35 billion to be in the top five global digital economy and public-private partnership needs to be leveraged for the region’s digital infrastructure financing.

Regulatory roadblocks need to be addressed as e-commerce regulations are weak in South Asia. For the sector to drive growth, issues such as customer protection, digital and market access regulation, etc. need to be addressed. There would be no digital revolution without universal digital literacy. Governments and businesses need to come together to revamp the education system to meet the demand for digital skills and online platforms. The crossflow of data and personal information calls for stringent cybersecurity measures as many have experienced painful lessons in data privacy during the pandemic.

In South Asia, only a third of the inter-regional trade potential has been exploited, losing out on $23 billion in revenues (https://bit.ly/37ohgIr). By addressing issues such as regulatory barriers on currency flows inhibiting online payment to transport-related constraints for cross-border e-commerce activities, South Asia can emulate the European Union’s Digital Single Market Proposal.

During the pandemic, South Asian nations joined hands to collectively battle the crises by contributing towards a COVID-19 emergency fund, exchanging data and information on health surveillance, sharing research findings, and developing an online learning platform for health workers. If the eight nations (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Maldives, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) can start walking the talk, partnership for a successful digital revolution is plausible. It will need vision, wisdom, and commitment at the highest level of the region’s political leadership.

Collaboration needed 

COVID-19 has rendered old ways of operating redundant. Concerted collaboration at all levels is needed to push South Asia out of stagnancy and towards a digital future of shared prosperity. The right concoction of regulatory and physical infrastructure, skill sets and regional cooperation can lead toward a digital utopia whereas, the lack of which can breed a dystopian tomorrow. Adequate support is needed for those who risk falling through the net of digital progress. A shared “digital vision” could place the region on the right track towards the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

14. South Asia’s healthcare burden  

June 10, 2021 

Syed Munir Khasru

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Despite the debilitating pandemic, state investment in the health sector remains deeply inadequate 

On May 18 this year, India recorded 4,529 deaths from COVID-19, the highest daily death toll recorded in the world after the United States in January saw 4,468 deaths. As India combats the pandemic, its neighbours are experiencing spillover from the menacing second wave. The virus has swept through Nepal, while Sri Lanka added as many as 78,218 cases in May. Pakistan crossed over 200 daily deaths in April, its highest since the pandemic started. The situation in Bangladesh is precarious, given the recent detection of the highly contagious Delta variant. Bhutan is the only exception, with only one death and 1,724 cases so far. The country’s success stems from a well-funded and prepared public health system with stringent measures, responsible citizenship, and an accountable government.

As bodies piled up at overcrowded crematoriums in India in the last few months, several things were to blame — “super spreader” events, a fragile health infrastructure neglected for decades, citizens not following health protocols, and logistical mismanagement. What has exacerbated the situation is a subpar public healthcare system running on a meagre contribution of a little over 1% of India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). While the private medical sector is booming, the public healthcare sector has been operating at a pitiful 0.08 doctors per 1,000 people, falling miserably below the World Health Organization’s (WHO) prescribed standard of 1:1000. India has only half a bed available for every 1,000 people, which is a deficient figure even for normal days.

Bangladesh and Pakistan fare no better, with a bed to patient ratio of 0.8 and 0.6, respectively, and a doctor availability of less than one for every 1,000 people. While ideally, out-of-pocket expenditure should not surpass 15% to 20% of the total health expenditure, for India, Bangladesh and Pakistan, this figure stands at an appalling 62.67%,73.87% and 56.24%, respectively.

The situation in rural India, where people largely rely on threadbare healthcare facilities, is disconcerting. Numerous distressing reports have emerged in the media, from patients being treated on the hospital floor for lack of beds, to some walking hundreds of miles just to get to a hospital, let alone one with oxygen or drug supplies, and many being left to resort to homemade concoctions and local quacks. Further, the fact that hundreds of healthcare workers have succumbed to COVID-19, unable to seek a bed in the very hospitals they serve, is telling. While India has the world’s third-largest military expenditure, its health budget is the fourth-lowest. In Pakistan, even amidst the pandemic, the defence budget was increased by 12% in the fi_scal year 2020-21, to $7.85 billion, while the spending on health remained around $151 million. Not too far behind is Bangladesh, with decades of underfunding culminating in a crumbling public healthcare system, pushing people to opt for private medical care even if it means exorbitant health payments. Major public sector investments by the ‘big three’ of South Asia, i.e., India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, are towards infrastructure and defence, with health taking a backseat. A quick look at prepandemic sectoral allocations explains the chronically low status of human development indicators in the three countries.

Learning from Southeast Asia

South Asia can take lessons in pragmatic healthcare policy from Southeast Asia, which has prioritised investments in healthcare systems while broadening equitable access through universal health coverage schemes. From Vietnam’s preventive measures focused on investments in disease surveillance and emergency response mechanisms, to even countries like Laos and Cambodia making a constant effort towards improving the healthcare ecosystem, all have done much better than their South

Asian peers.

It took a debilitating global pandemic to push South Asian policymakers to direct special attention and resources towards strengthening the health systems. But is it too late? Though the Indian government in this year’s budget highlighted an increase of 137% in “health and well-being” expenditure, a closer look reveals a mismatch between facts and figures. Learning from the devastation unleashed by the pandemic, South Asian countries must step up investment in their public healthcare sectors to make them sustainable, up to date and pro-poor; most importantly, the system should not turn its back on citizens. Given the high chances of another wave or even the impending crisis of climate change, stopgap measures ought to be replaced by a well-thought-out vision and

political commitment for long-term healing.

Link: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/south-asias-healthcare-burden/article34773947.ece 

15. Election watch from across the Bengal border 

April 19, 2021 

Syed Munir Khasru

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Bangladesh waits to see whether the poll result in West Bengal impacts its identity as an inclusive, progressive society 

As the high-profile contest in India’s State elections in West Bengal is under way, Bangladeshis are curious onlookers not only because of the geographic proximity and strong socio-cultural ties between the two Bengals but also on account of the ramifications the electoral outcome may have on India-Bangladesh relations.

Historical bonds During Bangladesh’s liberation war in 1971, West Bengal played an important role by sheltering most of the 10 million refugees. Political leaders were also accommodated with the provincial government of Bangladesh setting up headquarters in Kolkata. On June 15, 1971, the late Pranab Mukherjee suggested in the Rajya Sabha that India should recognise the Bangladesh government in exile. In 2013, Bangladesh conferred the Liberation War Honour on Pranab Mukherjee who endearingly called himself a “son-in-law” of Bangladesh. The late West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu also played a pivotal role in forging the Ganges water treaty between the two countries in 1996. 

Given the shared history, language, culture and cuisine between the Bengals, there is interest on both sides to foster good relations through increased trade, improved connectivity, and cultural exchanges. For Bangladeshis, West Bengal is a popular destination for medical treatment and shopping. 

Water sharing 

The relationship between the Bengals is not without its challenges, one of the main factors being the failure to sign the Teesta water-sharing treaty. More than two crore Bangladeshis are dependent on the river for their livelihood. In the dry seasons, West Bengal diverts water for irrigation in the north which causes a severe water shortage in Bangladesh. During the monsoon, large volumes of water are released from the Teesta Barrage causing large-scale flooding and riverbank erosion in Bangladesh. 

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s flip-flop on this vital issue has had an impact on the relationship between the two Bengals and also at the India-Bangladesh state level. The closest the two countries came to signing a water-sharing treaty for Teesta was in 2011 during the visit of then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Bangladesh. 

Ms. Banerjee was set to be a part of the entourage to sign the water-sharing treaty but her last minute withdrawal led to a stalemate in signing it. Such moves could prove costly to India and even push Bangladesh to China which has agreed to fund the nearly $1billion “Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration project”. 

CAA and the NRC 

In contrast, Ms. Banerjee’s stance regarding the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, or CAA, and the National Register of Citizens (NRC) have been largely appreciated in Bangladesh. In an interview in 2020, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said that though the CAA is India’s “internal matter”, she added, “We don’t understand why [the Indian government] did it. It was not necessary.” 

Though India has assured Dhaka that the NRC and the CAA are domestic issues not affecting Bangladesh, Dhaka’s concern is natural as Bangladesh is at the heart of the foreign nationals’ issue spreading across India from Assam to West Bengal. Certain remarks by India’s Home Minister, Amit Shah, about immigrants from Bangladesh, referring to them as “termites”, have added to these concerns. 

Vote politics across border 

The enactment of the CAA and the NRC has widespread support from Matua community leaders in West Bengal who have been demanding citizenship for Matua refugees from Bangladesh. The community, organised under the umbrella of the Matua Mahasangha, is an influential group with a significant voter base spread across several districts in West Bengal. The support from the Matua community yielded large dividends for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in West Bengal in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Historically, the Matua community was not a vote bank in the West Bengal elections. In the run-up to the Trinamool Congress’s campaigns in the 2000s, Ms. Banerjee reached out to the community to challenge the clout of the Left in Bengal. Now, the BJP is emulating the TMC’s success with the Matua community. During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Bangladesh, he visited the community’s sacred temple at Orakandi and referred to the elected representative of the community Shantunu Thakur’s demand to implement the CAA in West Bengal. Many interpreted it as influencing Matua community voters in West Bengal, with even an allegation by Ms. Banerjee of violating the election code of conduct by involving a foreign country in India’s internal matters. 

India’s Home Minister’s recent comments about poor Bangladeshis going to India have also drawn sharp reactions from Dhaka. Bangladesh Foreign Minister A.K. Abdul Momen remarked; “There are many wise people in this world [like Amit Shah] who don’t want to see even after looking, they don’t want to understand even after knowing about it.” In the Global Hunger Index 2020, India ranks 94 and Bangladesh 75. In 2019, the population below the poverty line in Bangladesh was 9.2% compared to India’s 10.7%. During the pandemic, Bangladesh maintained a GDP growth of 3.8% in 2020 while India had a negative GDP growth. 

So, do Bangladeshis have a stake in what happens? Ms. Banerjee’s claims of having close ties with Bangladesh do not carry much weight given her political whims and opportunism. On the other hand, being a moderate, progressive Muslim majority country, the concern on this side of the border is whether a BJP win will divert the course of history and dilute West Bengal’s core identity as an inclusive, tolerant, and progressive society. Whatever may be the election’s outcome, there is no apparent reason to feel either euphoric or optimistic on this side of the border. 

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/election-watch-from-across-the-bengal-border/article34353035.ece 

16. Remove the wedges in India-Bangladesh ties

March 27, 2021

Syed Munir Khasru

Background: 

As Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi visits Bangladesh to join celebration of 50 years of independence, the article speaks about the relationship between both the countries since the liberation war and the independence of East-Pakistan. Further stating that both the nations should keep the momentum and the connection strong while removing the pertaining wedges between the nations.

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The friendship between India and Bangladesh is historic, evolving over the last 50 years. India’s political, diplomatic, military and humanitarian support during Bangladesh’s Liberation War played an important role towards Bangladesh’s independence. Nearly 3,900 Indian soldiers gave up their lives and an estimated 10 million Bangladeshi refugees took shelter in India.

Now it is about cooperation

Post-Independence, the India- Bangladesh relationship has oscillated as Bangladesh passed through different regimes. The relationship remained cordial until the assassination of Bangladesh’s founding President Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in August 15, 1975, followed by a period of military rule and the rise of General Ziaur Rahman who became President and also assassinated in 1981. It thawed again between 1982-1991 when a military-led government by General H.M. Ershad ruled the country.

Since Bangladesh’s return to parliamentary democracy in 1991, relations have gone through highs and lows. However, in the last decade, India-Bangladesh relations have warmed up, entering a new era of cooperation, and moving beyond historical and cultural ties to become more assimilated in the areas of trade, connectivity, energy, and defence.

Bangladesh and India have achieved the rare feat of solving their border issues peacefully by ratifying the historic Land Boundary Agreement in 2015, where enclaves were swapped allowing inhabitants to choose their country of residence and become citizens of either India or Bangladesh. The Bangladesh government led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has uprooted anti-India insurgency elements from its borders, making the India-Bangladesh border one of the region’s most peaceful, and allowing India to make a massive redeployment of resources to its more contentious borders elsewhere.

Bangladesh today is India’s biggest trading partner in South Asia with exports to Bangladesh in FY 2018-19 at $9.21 billion and imports at $1.04 billion. India has offered duty free access to multiple Bangladeshi products. Trade could be more balanced if non-tariff barriers from the Indian side could be removed. On the development front, cooperation has deepened, with India extending three lines of

credit to Bangladesh in recent years amounting to $8 billion for the construction of roads, railways, bridges, and ports. However, in eight years until 2019, only 51% of the first $800 million line of credit has been utilised whilst barely any amount from the next two lines of credit worth $6.5 billion has been mobilised. This has been mostly due to red-tapism from India’s end, and slow project implementation on Bangladesh’s end.

Bangladeshis make up a large portion of tourists in India, outnumbering all tourists arriving from western Europe in 2017, with one in every five tourists being a Bangladeshi. Bangladesh accounts for more than 35% of India’s international medical patients and contributes more than 50% of India’s revenue from medical tourism.

The connectivity boost

Connectivity between the two countries has greatly improved. A direct bus service between Kolkata and Agartala runs a route distance of 500 km, as compared to the 1,650 km if it ran through the Chicken’s Neck to remain within India. There are three passenger and freight railway services running between the two countries, with two more routes on their way to be restored. Recently, a 1.9 kilometre long bridge, the Maitri Setu, was inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, connecting Sabroom in India with Ramgarh in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh allows the shipment of goods from its Mongla and Chattogram (Chittagong) seaports carried by road, rail, and water ways to Agartala (Tripura) via Akhura; Dawki (Meghalaya) via Tamabil; Sutarkandi (Assam) via Sheola, and Srimantpur (Tripura) via Bibirbazar. This allows landlocked Assam, Meghalaya and Tripura to access open water routes through the Chattogram and Mongla ports (https://bit.ly/3vXySpB).

Bones of contention

Despite the remarkable progress, the unresolved Teesta water sharing issue looms large. Border killings are yet to stop. The year 2020 saw the highest number of border shootings by the Border Security Force. The shots are fired at civilians, usually cattle traders, who are usually unarmed, trying to illegally cross the border. India not only has failed to stop the border killings but at times has even justified them. The statement by India’s External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, during his recent visit to Dhaka, that “our shared objective should be a no crime-no death border...”, raises questions as to why killings, and not due legal proceedings, are being followed in tackling border crimes.

The Modi government’s proposal to implement the National Register of Citizens across the whole of India reflects poorly on India- Bangladesh relations. It is not comprehensible why people of all religions and ethnicities barring Muslims will be excluded from the Bill. It remains to be seen how India addresses the deportation of illegal Muslim immigrants, some of whom claim to have come from Bangladesh.

Sri Lanka, Nepal and the Maldives, once considered traditional Indian allies, are increasingly tilting towards China due to the Asian giant’s massive trade, infrastructural and defence investments in these countries. In spite of its ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’, India has been losing its influence in the region to China. Bhutan also does not abide by Indian influence as evinced by its withdrawal from the BBIN (Bhutan-Bangladesh-India- Nepal) motor vehicles agreement. China, in lieu of its chequebook diplomacy, is well-entrenched in South Asia, including Bangladesh, with which it enjoys significant economic and defence relations.

Keeping the momentum going

India-Bangladesh relations have been gaining positive momentum over the last decade. As Bangladesh celebrates its 50 years of independence (March 26, 1971), India continues to be one of its most important neighbours and strategic partners. As the larger country, the onus is on India to be generous enough to let the water flow and ensure that people are not killed on the border for cattle even if it is illegal when there are appropriate means for justice. These small but important steps can remove longstanding snags in a relationship which otherwise is gradually coming of age in 50 years. To make the recent gains irreversible, both countries need to continue working on the three Cs — cooperation,collaboration, and consolidation.

Link: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/election-watch-from-across-the-bengal-border/article34353035.ece

17. Uniting to combat COVID-19

September 23, 2020

Syed Munir Khasru

Background:

South Asia, world’s least integrated region with world’s 1/4th population & 1/3rd poor, needs to come together in facing the common menace. The op-ed in Hindu, India’s leading media outlet looks into some of the common challenges faced by the eight South Asian countries in responding to COVID 19 and the unexplored potential to come together in synergizing their energies and resources in fighting the pandemic.

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The South Asian region could leverage its existing institutional framework under the umbrella of SAARC

With the pandemic showing no signs of abating, growth prospects for the world’s fastest-growing region, South Asia, appear grim. In April, the World Bank predicted that growth in the region would be 1.8%-2.8% this year.

Governments in South Asian countries have responded in varying degrees to counter the health and economic crises.

India resumed its economic activities on a limited scale following a strict lockdown imposed in late March and lasting through April. Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka did the same after an extended lockdown. Bhutan and the Maldives have managed to largely contain community transmission and avoid prolonged lockdowns due to a higher testing rate. This is consistent with the hypothesis that countries that have conducted more tests have been more successful in containing the pandemic. According to Worldometer, in South Asia, the Maldives has the highest number of tests per million population followed by Bhutan. Countries facing a surge in cases, such as India, could have flattened the curve by increasing the number of tests.

Low mortality

India has the second largest number of COVID-19 cases in the world (over 55 lakh) after the U.S. Bangladesh has around 3.5 lakh cases. Surprisingly, unlike other regions, South Asian countries are experiencing a lower mortality rate despite having a higher infection rate. Many have suggested that this could be due to the region’s tropical climate, protection offered by a tuberculosis vaccine (BCG), exposure to malaria, and a weaker strain of the virus. However, epidemiological studies and the World Health Organization’s reviews have been sceptical about the hypotheses which leave out one plausible explanation — the concern over data reliability. Many have suggested that in a region that houses one-fourth of the global population and one-third of the global poor, many COVID-19 deaths might have gone unnoticed, unreported or even under-reported.

The efficacy of state responses

While India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the Maldives have unveiled stimulus packages, the rest are yet to announce any concrete support for their low income and lower-middle income population still suffering from the economic fallout of the crisis. In late March, India announced a $22.5 billion relief package to ensure food security and cash transfers to save the livelihoods of an estimated 800 million people living in poverty. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) slashed the repo and reverse repo rate to create liquidity for businesses. In early April, Bangladesh announced a stimulus package worth about $8 billion in addition to an earlier $595 million incentive package for export-oriented industries. In late March, Pakistan unveiled a comprehensive fiscal stimulus package of $6.76 billion. Its central bank also slashed the interest rate. In late April, the Maldives government mobilised a $161.8 million emergency fund. It also announced a short-term financing facility for the tourism industry. Sri Lanka signed an agreement with the RBI for a currency swap worth $400 million to support domestic financial stability. In late February, the Afghan government allocated about $25 million to fight COVID-19. In addition, a $100.4 million grant was approved by the World Bank in April to Afghanistan.

Although countries like India and Bangladesh announced financial and material stimulus packages, distribution concerns remain unaddressed. For instance, the Open Market Sale in Bangladesh appears ineffective as there is no physical distancing and, in some instances, there is political tampering and poor governance. In India, the announcement of the lockdown gave citizens less than four hours to prepare. Hoarding of supplies caused a shortage in the market. The lockdown disrupted supply chains. It was a similar situation in Nepal and Pakistan.

 A coordinated response mechanism

Since this crisis is likely to result in prolonged economic setbacks in South Asia, leaders of the region need to look beyond narrow geopolitical rivalry and come together to work towards a well-coordinated response mechanism. A SAARC COVID-19 fund was created following Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s call to South Asian leaders, but governments are yet to decide on its modus operandi. The region could leverage its existing institutional framework under the umbrella of SAARC to effectively respond to the crisis. For instance, SAARC Food Banks could be activated to tackle the imminent regional food crisis, and the SAARC Finance Forum can be activated to formulate a regional economic policy response. If leaders of the region can’t rise to the occasion even when faced with a common problem that is claiming lives, putting millions out of jobs and crippling economies, when will they?

Link:https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/uniting-to-combat-covid-19/article32671507.ece

18. Furthering this neighbourhood friendship

October 03, 2019 

Syed Munir Khasru

Background:

Indo-Bangla bilateral relations have come a long way in the past few decades. Cooperation between the two countries has proven to be beneficial for both of them. However there are still several issues that are yet to be resolved. In that context the article looks into the future of Indo-Bangla relations with optimism.

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Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will make her first official visit to India from October 3-6, post the general elections in Bangladesh (December 2018) and India (May 2019). She will address the World Economic Forum’s India Economic Summit followed by the bilateral visit. India and Bangladesh today enjoy one of the best periods of their relationship, with positive development in the areas of diplomatic, political, economic and security relations.

Despite gains, the issues

The current Bangladesh government has uprooted security threats and acts of insurgency against India and today, the India-Bangladesh border is one of India’s most secured. The signing of the Land Boundary Agreement in 2015 was a milestone, where the two neighbours amicably resolved a long-outstanding issue.

Bilateral trade was a little over $9 billion in FY 2017-18 and Bangladeshi exports increased by 42.91%, reaching $1.25 billion in FY 2018-2019. Removal of non-tariff barriers will help Bangladeshi exports such as harmonising the standards for goods accepted by India. In 2018, in addition to the 660 MW of power imported by Bangladesh, Indian export of electricity increased by another 500 MW. A 1,600 MW power station with a dedicated transmission system is being developed to boost power trade.

Land routes have gained popularity over air travel, and are preferred by 85.6% of Bangladeshis visiting India. Train services on the Dhaka-Kolkata and Kolkata-Khulna are doing well, while a third, on the Agartala-Akhaura route, is under construction. Five additional bus services were introduced in 2018; this March, the first ever Dhaka-Kolkata cruise ship was launched. Bangladeshi tourists accounted for 21.6% of the total percentage of tourists visiting India in 2018 (83.7% tourists and 10.28% medical patients). Today, Bangladesh contributes 50% of India’s health tourism revenue.

A few major outstanding issues still remain, with the most pressing being the Teesta Water Sharing Agreement. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s refusal to endorse water-sharing terms agreed upon by Prime Minister Modi in 2015 has resulted in the current impasse. A lack of water has affected 100,000 hectares of land, with contamination affecting the soil; the increased cost of pesticides and irrigation has made farming less profitable. The National Register of Citizens (NRC) has left out 1.9 million Assamese from the list with a group labelled as “illegal immigrants from Bangladesh” living in Assam post-1971. Bangladesh remains firm in its stance that no migrants travelled to Assam illegally during the 1971 war of independence and that the controversial NRC risks hurting relations.

Border killings have decreased. India’s Border Security Force (BSF) claims that most of the firing is in self-defence in tackling cattle trafficking. However, since the ban by India on cattle export, cattle trade has fallen from 23 lakh in 2013 to 75,000 till the end of May this year — which makes the argument unconvincing. International rules of engagement entail that military action must be “proportional to provocation”, which makes such killings a serious violation of human rights. It must not be forgotten that in 2018, the BSF DG had said: “Relations between India and Bangladesh and the two border guarding forces are at their best right now.”

Since 2010, India has approved three lines of credit to Bangladesh of $7.362 billion to finance development projects. Due to bureaucratic red tape, just $442 million has been disbursed till December 2018. While Bangladesh has been slow in implementation, India’s requirement of the disbursement process to be approved by India’s Exim Bank has not helped either. During Sheikh Hasina’s visit to Delhi in 2017, two defence pacts were signed; in 2018, India extended a credit line of $500 million to purchase armaments; two memoranda of understanding were also signed for cooperation between the naval forces.

Subject of Rohingya

The Rohingya issue and India’s remarks in 2017 on the issue have been upsetting for Bangladesh which has been facing the challenge of providing shelter to more than a million Rohingya refugees fleeing persecution by one of the world’s most brutal military regimes. The recent visit to Dhaka by India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar (August 19-21), saw a marked departure in India’s position; he had said then: “We agreed that safe, speedy and sustainable return of displaced persons (Rohingyas) is in the national interest of all three countries - Bangladesh, Myanmar, and India.” However, it is China that is mediating when, given its geographical proximity, it is India which is ideally positioned to play a positive role in regional leadership.

India-Bangladesh relations have matured in the last decade with development in many areas of cooperation. In a neighbourhood where distrust and cynicism prevail over friendship and hope, the relationship between the two countries has given hope for optimism. But the sooner existing challenges are resolved, the better it is. On the sidelines of the 74th UN General Assembly late last month, Mr. Modi assured Sheikh Hasina that she would not need to worry about the NRC and water-sharing as bilateral relations are very good. It is now time to walk the talk.

The shared colonial legacy, history and socio-cultural bonds demand that the political leadership of the two countries inject momentum into India-Bangladesh relations. Sheikh Hasina’s trip to India will hopefully help relations graduate to the next level of strengthening the three Cs: cooperation, coordination, and consolidation.

Link: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/furthering-this-neighbourhood-friendship/article29577509.ece

19. Sushma Swaraj: A tribute from the neighbourhood

August 10, 2019 

Syed Munir Khasru

Background:

The demise of Sushma Swaraj, the former Minister for External Affairs of India has seen the end of an illustrious career of remarkable achievements.  Despite her humble beginning and non-political background, Swaraj was one of the most well respected politicians of India. Her personal charisma and strength of character have been an inspiration to many, both within and beyond India. The article is a tribute to one of South Asia’s firebrand politicians who left her footprints in the complex socio-political landscape of this region.

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South Asia, despite its progress on many socio-economic fronts, have not yet managed to provide a secured, dignified, just and inclusive life to all its women who make up 48.45% of the region’s population. Sexual harassment, domestic violence, female foeticide, workplace discrimination, income and nutrition inequality are rampant. In the midst of all these grim picture, the illustrious public life of Srimati Sushma Swaraj gives hope and courage to the region’s women. In her long-standing career in politics and public service, she has held multiple important public offices. Although best known as the Minister of External Affairs from 2014 to 2019 under the Narendra Modi governmen’s first term in office, she also held the position of Minister of Overseas Indian Affair (2014-2016), Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha (2009-2014), Minister of Parliamentary Affairs (2003-2004), Minister of Health and Family Welfare (2003-2004), Minister of Information and Broadcasting (2000-2003) and the 5th Chief Minister of Delhi.

South Asia, particularly India has seen quite a few dynamic female leaders in both the public and private sectors like the CEO of PepsiCo Ms. Indra Nooyi, and the recently appointed CFO and Managing Director of the World Bank, Anshula Kant. Sheila Dixit, the recently deceased Chief Minister of Delhi for 13 years, who was Sushma’s political rival and yet close friend yet was also widely respected and loved by Indians at large. However, few Indian women have worn so many hats with so much aplomb for such a long stretch of time. Swaraj’s political career began at a very young age during the 70s when she joined the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad. At twenty-five she became the youngest Cabinet Minister of the Indian state of Haryana and later became the Chief Minister of Delhi. She was elected a Member of Parliament, a total of seven times. For a women of such achievements, Swaraj had a humbling beginning hailing from Haryana and earning a Bachelor's degree with majors in Sanskrit and Political Science. She later studied law at Punjab University and started practicing as an advocate in the Supreme Court of India. It was her hard-work, determination and focus that bolstered her to the power corridors of Delhi.

It’s not just her titles that made her an admirable leader. She was respected by politicians from all aisles and was well known for her oratory and leadership skills. She was immensely popular and had 13 million followers in Twitter making her one of the most followed female leaders in the world on Twitter. Her active presence in Twitter exemplified how political leaders of the topmost tier can connect effectively with the ordinary people.

While Sushma herself was a Lok Sabha Member, her husband, Swaraj Kaushal was a Rajya Shabha member. Later during 2000 and 2004 they both became Rajya Shabha members, an occurrence rare in the history of Indian politics. Unlike many of her peers in the South Asian political domain, Swaraj did not hail from an influential political family like Bangladesh’s Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia, or Pakistan’s Benazir Bhutto or India’s Sonia Gandhi or even Indira Gandhi . Her father was an active member of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), but never held any prominent political post which is what makes her accomplishments unique.

Her grace, epitome and popularity not only served as an example for women in India but for the entire South Asia. Studies on South Asia shows that a girl child has to struggle twice as much as a boy child, due to South Asians’ preference for sons over daughters. Women’s participation in politics is very low throughout the region. On an average women hold 15% of national parliament positions. Swaraj was a shining beacon of hope against these presiding regional norms.

Outside India too Sushma Swaraj was well-respected and warmly received. To share few instances, British Secretary of State for the Home Department Priti Patel called her a dear personal friend and the Iron Lady of India. Australian Foreign Minister and Minister for Women, Marise Payne remembered her as a person of great warmth & humanity. Hamid Karzai, Former President of Afghanistan, fondly addressed her as “Behinji Sushma Swaraj” for being a people’s person.

Friendship across party lines

Her stature and dignified ways also made her a respectable leader among BJP’s bitter rival Congress. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi credited her of having friendships across party lines. Congress leaders P. Chidambaram, Manish Tewari, Ahmed Patel conveyed their condolences as another firebrand women leader Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee, who months ago fought a bitter election campaign with Sushma’s BJP party, only had kind words for her and mentioned sharing many cordial times in Parliament in spite of differing ideologies.

The Prime Minister of Bangladesh, called her a “good friend of Bangladesh.” Swaraj contributed much to the betterment of India-Bangladesh bilateral relations and spoke in favour of Bangladesh’s contribution in countering terrorist attacks. She had further commented that Bangladesh is as much a victim of terrorism as India, words rarely spoken by world leader in a time when Muslim majority countries are very easily incriminated. 

Sushma Swaraj has indeed been one of a kind, the likes of who are unfortunately hard to find. Her speech in the 1996 Lok Sabha about the repealing of Article 370 was implemented on the very day of her demise. Although the repealing of the Article has been controversial, the fact that Swaraj had spoken about it in Parliament more than twenty years ago shows her foresight in politics. The world will always remember Swaraj as the dignified and loved politician that she was and her legacy will continue to inspire many – both men and women – in the region. For the men and women of South Asia, her words will continue to echo the corridors of power and challenge the fabric of the society, as she said quite aptly, “There is an urgent need to tackle the ills of the society against women through active participation of all – men, women, society, governments. It is imperative to make women’s empowerment a peoples’ movement.” As she embarks into the journey to the land of no return, may her soul find peace which she tried to deliver to many in the earth.

Link: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/sushma-swaraj-a-tribute-from-the-neighborhood/article28974436.ece

20. It no longer runs in the family

July 16, 2019

Syed Munir Khasru

Background:

Given that India is the world’s largest democracy, one of the fastest growing economies, and increasingly an important player in the global stage, the recent surge of nationalism and religious extremism has come under scrutiny both at home and abroad. The attached article is written from two perspectives (i) The growing divisive nature of socio-political and ethno-religious fabric of the Indian society (ii) An independent and objective analysis from a Non-Indian as to how it affects perception and positioning India globally.

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Political power in the Indian subcontinent seems to be drifting away from dynasties

Ever since the British left the Indian subcontinent, most South Asian nations have seen dynastic leadership. India’s Congress Party, led by the Nehru-Gandhi family, has been in power for a better part of the country’s post-Independence modern history. Similarly, the Bhuttos/Zardaris and the Sharifs led Pakistan for years. Sri Lanka was governed by the Bandaranaikes for years and the Rajapaksas later. In Bangladesh, two political families — those of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and Zia ur-Rahman — have dominated the political landscape.

That said, leaders belonging to political dynasties have not always had a glorious reign. We only need to consider the tragic fate that befell the Bhuttos — Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and his daughter Benazir Bhutto — both of whom died untimely deaths. In India, Indira Gandhi and her son Rajiv Gandhi were both assassinated.

At times, the end of one family’s dominance brings the ascendance of another. We need to consider Sri Lanka’s situation here, where rule by one family, the Bandaranaikes, was followed soon by the rise of another, the Rajapaksas. As President, Mahinda Rajapaksa appointed his brothers to key positions.

Examples of Imran, Modi

However, today, political power in the subcontinent seems to be drifting away from dynasties. In Pakistan, Imran Khan, a cricketer-turned-politician, and in India, Narendra Modi, a swayamsevak, have become Prime Ministers.

Here, the resignation of Rahul Gandhi as Congress president can be considered a significant development for India. Mr. Gandhi, who decided to relinquish the post after his party’s defeat in the general elections, formally entered electoral politics as a 34-year-old MP in 2004 and was expected to have a major sway over India’s youth. However, successive defeats of Congress in 2014 and 2019 have demonstrated that he could not bring young voters into the party’s fold. However, refreshingly, Mr. Gandhi desisted from playing the blame game.

Inspiring hope

Further, while Mr. Gandhi may have failed to have his finger on the pulse of the electorate, he did inspire some hope for the future of his party by owning up to its lapses and seeking to forge a more democratic future for the organisation. Thus, his resignation has opened a pathway for educated, charismatic and able leaders to assume charge, not just those from his own family.

Mr. Gandhi sought to distinguish himself from his political adversaries by saying: “Where they see differences, I see similarity. Where they see hatred, I see love. What they fear, I embrace.” He certainly made an indelible impression when he concluded his resignation letter with these powerful words: “It is a habit in India that the powerful cling to power, no one sacrifices power. But we will not defeat our opponents without sacrificing the desire for power and fighting a deeper ideological battle.”

Looking at other countries, as South Asia sheds dynastic politics, space is being created for leaders like Nepal’s K.P. Sharma Oli, Bhutan’s doctor-turned-Prime Minister Lotay Tshering and The Maldives’s Ibrahim Mohamed Solih.

However, voters need not reject a candidate solely because he/she is from a political family. There can be meritocracy even when a dynast works his way up the political ladder by virtue of his skills. The challenge here is to ensure that those from humble origins have the same access to the corridors of power as the most privileged. As one of the world’s most vibrant democracies, India can inspire merit-based democratic societies. On that note, Mr. Gandhi has led by example.

Link: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/it-no-longer-runs-in-the-family/article28448836.ece

21. Why South Asia must cooperate

June 22, 2019

Syed Munir Khasru

Background:

One of the major factors that hinders South Asia’s economic development is weak regional cooperation. Although most South Asian countries face the common challenges of poverty, inequality, weak governance, and poor infrastructure there is hardly any common initiative or strategy to collectively face these challenges. The article looks into the unexplored potential for cooperation and collaboration among these nations in achieving the SDG Agenda 2030 to achieve socio-economic for the region as a whole.

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South Asia covers only about 3.5% of the world’s land surface area but hosts a fourth of its population, making it a region of significant importance for international development. In spite of the geographic proximity countries in this region enjoy and their common socio-cultural bonds, this is one of the world’s least integrated regions. Intra-regional trade is a meagre 5% of the total trade these countries do globally, while intra-regional investment is less than 1% of the region’s overall global investment. South Asia’s average GDP per capita is only about 9.64% of the global average. Accounting for more than 30% of the world’s poor, the region faces myriad economic and environmental challenges.

Lack of initiatives

While the countries share a host of common development challenges, economic cooperation remains less than adequate. While A few noteworthy regional initiatives such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) and the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) Initiative have been undertaken to bring the countries closer together, economically and socially, there is scope for much more. For a region with common development challenges of inequality, poverty, weak governance and poor infrastructure, a shared vision of attaining the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provides enormous opportunities for cooperation, collaboration, and convergence (3C).

Compared to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which were a set of eight objectives to be achieved by developing nations with support from developed nations by 2015, the SDGs are more universal, inclusive and integrated in nature. The 17 goals and their 169 targets are inter-connected and cannot be implemented by countries working in isolation. Many are transnational in nature and require regional efforts. South Asian countries could benefit a lot by adopting a regional framework of cooperation that can support, strengthen and stimulate the SDGs. The SDGs highlight not only the importance of regional approach towards achieving the goals but also the regional synergy and resulting positive value additions towards achieving the SDG 2030 Agenda. In the SDG Index 2018, which is an assessment of countries’ progress, among 156 countries only two South Asian countries, Bhutan and Sri Lanka, are in the top 100. India is ranked 112th.

Most South Asian countries have made good progress in ending extreme poverty, but they face persistent challenges to goals related to industry, innovation and infrastructure, zero hunger, gender equality, education, sustainable cities and communities and decent work and economic growth. These apart, most of South Asia continues to be vulnerable to climate change and climate-induced natural disasters.

Varying performances

A closer look at the country-level data shows that India is performing well in Goal 1 (no poverty), Goal 6 (clean water and sanitation), Goal 12 (sustainable consumption and production), Goal 13 (climate action) and Goal 16 (peace, justice and strong institutions) while doing poorly in goal 2 (zero hunger), Goal 5 (gender equality) and Goal 9 (industry, innovation and infrastructure). Like India, Bangladesh is doing well in Goals 1, 6, 12 and 13 but poorly in Goals 2 and 9, and lagging behind in Goal 7 (affordable and clean energy). While doing well in Goals 1 and 12, Pakistan needs improvement in Goals 2, 4, 5 and 9, similar to India and Bangladesh. It also needs improved performance with respect to Goal 8 (decent work and economic growth). There are a lot of similarities among these three big economies of South Asia with respect to achieving some specific SDGs as well as exhibiting poor performance in some common goals.

A regional strategic approach to tackle common development challenges can bring enormous benefits to South Asia. SDGs related to energy, biodiversity, infrastructure, climate resilience and capacity development are transnational, and here policy harmonisation can play a pivotal role in reducing duplication and increasing efficiency. In a study titled ‘SDGs Needs Assessment and Financing Strategy: Bangladesh Perspective’, Bangladesh has undertaken exemplary initiatives for analysing its available resources and additional funding requirements for SDG implementation, suggesting that the country requires an additional $928 billion to fully implement the SDGs. The study identifies five possible sources for SDGs financing: public sector, private sector, public-private partnership, external sector and non-government organisations. On the other hand, data for many of the SDG targets and indicators for the Maldives are unavailable. Similarly, India has formulated some pragmatic plans and initiatives to improve food and nutrition security from which many of the neighbouring countries can benefit.

To address institutional and infrastructural deficits, South Asian countries need deeper regional cooperation. On financing the SDGs in South Asia, countries can work towards increasing the flow of intra-regional FDI. The private sector too can play a vital role in resource mobilisation.

Taking everyone along

The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the platform for regional economic cooperation in this region, has become moribund and remains unsuccessful in promoting regional economic cooperation. If the countries of South Asia, the fastest growing region of the world, can come to a common understanding on regional integration and cooperation in achieving the SDGs, it can unleash a powerful synergistic force that can finally make South Asia converge. A convergence towards achieving a common socio-economic agenda gives hope that no one in South Asia will be left behind in the journey towards eradicating poverty and enduring dignity to all.

Link: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/why-south-asia-must-cooperate/article28103001.ece

22. The spectre of deportation

December 16, 2018

Syed Munir Khasru

Background:

The planned deportation of Bangladeshis by the Indian government under the NRC has already raised concerns in both Bangladesh and India. On the possible ramifications of such a move on the bilateral relations between these two countries, the article looks into the socioeconomic & political aspects of the controversial NRC project/initiatives, and makes an objective analysis of the prevailing ground realities.

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The outcome of the NRC exercise has implications for India’s ties with Bangladesh

The last date for filing claims and objections for Assam’s National Register of Citizens (NRC) has been extended by the Supreme Court to December 31, from December 15. This exercise of compiling the NRC in the first place has sparked a debate around its political, economic and humanitarian consequences, and its implications for India’s relationship with its neighbours, particularly Bangladesh. In fact, there was some disquiet in Bangladesh when the Indian Army Chief, General Bipin Rawat, lent support to the NRC drive, claiming that those settled in Indian territory without legal jurisdiction posed a threat to national security.

Two-way traffic

Few seem to realise that there are legal as well as illegal Indian immigrants in Bangladesh too. According to the latest available Bangladesh government estimates of 2009, more than 500,000 Indians were working in Bangladesh. More recently, Bangladesh was reported to be among the highest source of remittances to India, behind the United Arab Emirates, the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the U.K. Many Indian citizens are securing coveted employment opportunities in Bangladesh through multinational companies, non-governmental organisations, and trading activities. To put things into perspective, most of them are employed in advantageous jobs in Bangladesh while Bangladeshis in India are largely employed in low-paying jobs.

The ruling establishment in India maintains that the NRC is an administrative task overseen by the Supreme Court, and not a political gambit. However, some members of the ruling party have been making hateful anti-migration and anti-Bangladeshi comments that reflect poorly on the prevalent positive relationship between Bangladesh and India.

While Prime Minister Narendra Modi has assured the Bangladesh government that those excluded from the NRC will not be deported, Dhaka has so far been silent on the issue, terming it as an ‘internal matter of India’. This is seen as a signal that Bangladesh, already stretched in terms of resources and manpower to host Rohingya refugees, would not be acceding to a request of taking back Bengali-speaking Muslims in case deportation is initiated. Yet, some remain apprehensive, pointing out that Bangladesh had been similarly unconcerned about the Rohingya issue, which did not prevent the country from ultimately hosting more than a million Rohingya.

Neighbourhood first?

Mr. Modi came to power with proclamation of a ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy. Midway in the final year of his term, the reality speaks quite differently. Nepal, once a time-tested ally, has tilted towards China since the 2015 Nepal blockade barring the entry of fuel, medicine and other vital supplies and holding the state to a literal siege. Nepal now has been given access to four Chinese ports at Tianjin, Shenzhen, Lianyungang and Zhanjiang in addition to its dry (land) ports at Lanzhou, Lhasa and Xigatse, as well as roads to these facilities, ending India’s monopoly to its trading routes. The India-Bhutan relationship has also been strained ever since India temporarily withdrew subsidies on cooking gas and kerosene in 2013, constraining bilateral ties. The Doklam stand-off in the summer of 2017 reinforced Bhutan’s scepticism towards Chinese expansionist plans across the region. Simultaneously, Thimphu has been underlining the landlocked kingdom’s aspiration to affirm its sovereignty. It has, for instance, stepped out of India’s diplomatic influence, as evidenced by its withdrawal from the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) motor vehicles agreement. The India-China power play has also cast its shadow over Sri Lanka and the Maldives in the last few years.

Against this backdrop of China making inroads into South Asia and India’s backyard, Bangladesh has so far been the most trusted ally of India. On the security front, it has cooperated in India’s crackdown on insurgents. Border Security Force (BSF) chief K.K. Sharma said last year that because of close cooperation with Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) “the number of training places and hideouts of these insurgents (in Bangladesh) has been reduced to almost zero.” Annual bilateral trade is set to cross the $9 billion mark, making it India’s biggest trading partner in South Asia. In addition, Bangladesh has facilitated connectivity with the Northeast by allowing the use of Chittagong and Mongla ports. However, the Teesta water-sharing issue remains unaddressed, non-tariff barriers on Bangladeshi exports persist and border killings are yet to become a thing of the past.

The NRC issue threatens to disturb the equilibrium in India-Bangladesh ties. It is vital to note that Bangladesh is heading for elections at the end of this month, and in poll campaigns, relations with India tend to be played up. Plans for deportation of those not on the NRC list are not only politically imprudent but also risk inciting unrest across the region. Previous similar exercises have not been effective and only resulted in alienating individuals from their natural rights.

Link: https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/1631258/bangsamoro-referendum-a-breath-of-fresh-air

23. Pieces of the Asian dream

August 29, 2018 

Syed Munir Khasru

Background:

The newly touted US led Indo-Pacific security alliance assumes significant role for India in the changing geopolitical landscape of the region. The article looks into some of the key challenges India faces in its ambition to become regional leader. It closely looks into some of the important bilateral and multilateral relationships that India will have to tread a careful path in pursuit at its ambitions in the neighborhood and beyond.

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India should maximize its soft power in South, East and Southeast Asia even as it resets ties with China

This has so far been the year of the India-China reset. From the informal Narendra Modi-Xi Jinping summit at Wuhan on April 27-28 to Prime Minister Modi’s keynote speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on June 1, to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in June 9 at the Chinese port city of Qingdao, all have sparked a lot of analysis as to what kind of strategic positioning India is gearing itself into at a time when the U.S. and China are caught up in geopolitical rivalry in the Asia-Pacific. In Singapore, Mr. Modi’s speech proclaimed India’s ambitions to garner influence in the Indo-Pacific region by increasing engagement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), developing friendship with China, maintaining cordial ties with Russia, pursuing interests with Australia and engaging more with the U.S. The question is, what shape will India’s lead take?

Tug of power

The reality is that the tug of power between India and China continues to impact sea lanes and chokepoints, with these two Asian giants pursuing interests in the littoral states spread across the Indo-Pacific. While India pursues influence through heightened diplomatic, bilateral and military engagement, China has started to garner influence through hard investments in cash-strapped littoral nations suffering from massive infrastructural deficits. China’s heavy investments in ASEANnations have brought these nations closer into its orbit of influence to the point where despite an international ruling against its activities in the South China Sea (SCS), the ASEAN as a bloc agreed to cooperate with China on a Code of Conduct instead of pursuing the international ruling.

The influence of China on certain ASEAN states like Cambodia has been such that during the 2016 ASEAN ministerial meeting, Phnom Penh refused to endorse the joint communiqué if it referred to the international court ruling against Beijing. China is today Cambodia’s largest provider of foreign aid and has invested in dams, oilfields, highways, textile operations and mines. In the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte has been seeking rapprochement with China, especially after 2016, when U.S. legislators blocked the sale of about 26,000 M4 rifles. Beijing provided rifles worth about $3.3 million to the Philippines police and guns worth $7.35 million to fight against extremists in the city of Marawi. Although India enjoys cordial relationship with all ASEAN nations, it is unlikely that diplomatic hobnobbing alone will help garner the grouping’s support for its Indo-Pacific strategy against China’s raw cash power and growing military presence. ASEAN’s trade with China far surpasses that with India, and Chinese foreign direct investment in ASEAN is nine times higher than India’s.

India also has so far failed to provide any concrete plans for its immediate neighbourhood in South Asia, with countries like Nepal and Sri Lanka demonstrating interest in partnering with China. Souring of relations with Nepal due to the 2015 fuel blockade and failed strategic interventions in Sri Lanka have both undermined India’s regional leadership. On the other hand, China’s multibillion dollar investments in Sri Lankan ports and cities have inched the country much closer to China, and last year Sri Lanka handed over its Hambantota port to China on a 99-year lease. Under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has over the years promised billions to littoral states in the Indian Ocean Region to build a series of ports, something resource-constrained India will find difficult to match.

However, the overt-assertiveness of China has driven many countries in East and Southeast Asia to seek friendship with India, and today Indonesia and Singapore are looking to bolster relations with India. ASEAN has a cultural affinity with India with its shared religious diversity, ancient ties and a sizeable Indian diaspora in countries like Singapore and Malaysia. After the U.S., India enjoys global soft power through its art, literature, music, dance and cinema. India is perceived by many in East Asia as a friendly democracy, making the country a safe ally to have in the long run. Japan has significantly increased its engagement with India and the two countries enjoy robust military ties. India and Australiahave initiated the ‘2+2’ dialogue signalling Canberra’s interest in deepening a maritime security partnership with India. But India still has to develop a strategy to leverage its soft power and optimise its military power to effectively counter China’s cash and hard power.

The big reset

With China, India can strike a better strategic bargain compared to the smaller states in the region. For example, it would be difficult for China to take forward the BRI without participation from India, which has reservations on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). By demonstrating a willingness to join the BRI, India can positively influence China to reevaluate the details of the CPEC. With a strategic partnership with China, India can better pursue its own regional groupings like the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) and Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal (BBIN) initiative. Since India can’t match China’s resource spending, strategic understanding with China can help streamline regional connectivity projects and help India gain influence in the region. At the SCO Summit, Mr. Xi renewed China’s agreement with India on sharing data on the cross-border flow of waters from the Brahmaputra during the flood season, and the two countries signed a protocol that would enable all varieties of rice exports from India to China, a demand India has been pressing for quite some time to rectify its adverse balance of payments against China. Mr. Xi has also suggested a trade target of $100 billion by 2020, signalling a gradual thaw in relations.

India is clearly seeking its rightful place in the league of nations by outlining its geopolitical role, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. What remains to be seen is how, with limited resources, India’s ambitions will play out against a resourceful and assertive China.

Link: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/pieces-of-the-asian-dream/article24804134.ece

24. On the great Asian highway

May 21, 2018

Syed Munir Khasru

Background:

States in South and Southeast Asia are involved in multiple regional initiatives led by India and China but are unable to get the benefit due to their slow progress. Smaller South and East Asian nations are involved in multiple, slow moving, overlapping regional connectivity projects which could have been expedited and streamlined through better Indo-China collaboration and communication. Right now both China and India are pursuing regional initiatives on their own which could lead to benefit for all involved states. This article analyzes how a better Indo-China partnership may better serve the surrounding region through effective and speedy implementation of the myriad connectivity initiatives both the countries have decided to pursue separately.

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India and China must forge an understanding to cooperate on regional connectivity projects

One of the key non-military issues that does not just bedevil India-China relations but also significantly affects many countries in the region is the inability of the two Asian giants to communicate, cooperate and coordinate on matters of regional trade and connectivity which could have benefited all. On that note, one hopes that the stand taken by External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj on declining to endorse China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) at the just concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Foreign Ministers’ meeting is more of a strategic bargaining position, and not an instance of obstinate negative regionalism that has been plaguing the region for long.

The BBIN way

Looking into South Asia, where most multi-country connectivity initiatives are usually deemed to be mere talk shops, one recent positive development has been the trial run, on April 23, of a Bangladesh-Nepal bus service through India under the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) motor vehicles agreement. It shows that the ambition of establishing physical connectivity among the smaller states of South Asia through India can eventually be realised and break the usual political gridlock that characterizes the region. Although Bhutan failed to ratify the agreement due to opposition from its parliament, instead of halting progress, the country asked other stakeholders to move ahead and expressed hope of joining the initiative if and once it gets clearance from the parliament. Bhutan’s positive go-ahead not only demonstrated the immense potential to be realized through simple cooperation but also showed that it is possible to implement pragmatic plans even when all members are not able to participate at the same time.

Poor connectivity is the major reason why intra-regional trade is among the lowest in South Asia. South Asia, with its 1.8 billion population, is only capable of conducting around 5% intraregional trade as connectivity remains a constant barrier. Non-tariff barriers (NTBs) continue to plague the region and addressing infrastructure deficits can do away with 80% of the NTBs. In addition to enhancing trade, connectivity can significantly improve people-to-people interaction leading to better understanding, greater tolerance\ and closer diplomatic relations in the region.

States in South and Southeast Asia are involved in multiple regional initiatives led by India and China but are unable to get the benefit due to their slow progress. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation remains moribund with little hope of it becoming functional in the near future. The Bay of Bengal too remains among the least integrated regions in spite of having immense potential of enhancing trade through utilisation of its ports and waterways. The India-led Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) involving Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand, has made little progress. Serving as a funnel to the Malacca Straits, one of the world’s busiest waterways, the Bay of Bengal has now become one of the most important strategic hotspots for global trade and all countries in BIMSTEC are losing out due to this prolonged period of dormancy. In all this time, the organisation has only had meetings, negotiations and leaders’ summit and stalled free trade agreement negotiations. However, there has been some progress through the establishment of the BIMSTEC Energy Centre and a task force on Trans Power Exchange and Development Projects, which was established to develop a memorandum of understanding for the establishment of the BIMSTEC Grid Interconnection.

On the other hand, China is leading its own regional ambition with its BRI. A portion of the Maritime Silk Route crosses the Bay of Bengal and involves Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka. Both China and India are pursuing regional initiatives on their own which could lead to benefit for all involved states. Regional agendas could have been pursued efficiently if the initiatives were complementary rather than competing. If the BRI, BIMSTEC and BBIN were developed through coordination and consultation, led by the two Asian giants, the projects under the schemes could have been implemented more efficiently. With the minimum required cooperation in pursuing regional initiatives, India and China can significantly enhance trade, investment and connectivity in the region. This would not only would be a win-win for the two giants but also enormously benefit smaller countries.

Make good in Qingdao

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet again, after the Wuhan informal summit, in June for the SCO summit in Qingdao, China, they have an opportunity to forge a pragmatic understanding on the efficacy of regional initiatives through greater communication, enhanced cooperation and better coordination. In the end, . slow moving regional projects end up hurting most the resource-constrained citizenry of the region who are deprived from the benefits emanating from well-thought-out and carefully strategised regional connectivity projects. Caught in the quagmire of continental, regional and sub-regional geopolitics, the smaller states are losing out and having to pay the price of missed economic opportunities as the two Asian giants shake hands but seldom see eye to eye even on matters of common economic and strategic interests. Mr. Modi and Mr. Xi must seize the chance to change this.

Link:  http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/on-the-great-asian-highway/article23953480.ece

25. Heeding the lines on the map

April 05, 2018 

Syed Munir Khasru

Background:

The article looks into Bangladesh’s role and stake at regional cooperation to the China-India-Pakistan triangle. Based on exhaustive, evidence-based and illustrative arguments it also breaks down the central argument of fostering more collaboration among the four mentioned countries –into five key areas i) Economic Relations, Trade, and Investment; ii) Transport, Communication, and Infrastructure; iii) Energy and Water; iv) Technology and Digital Connectivity; v) Tourism and Education. The article explains how each of the areas are being hampered by non-cooperation and how cooperation amongst the four nations can propel regionalism in greater South Asia through capturing the essence and contrasts with other regional blocks and groupings. It portrays a holistic and compelling argument in favor of the China-India-Pakistan-Bangladesh (CIPB) quadrate and how it can forge a more realistic regionalism in this part of the world.  

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Forging a China-India-Pakistan-Bangladesh axis would be a game changer for all of South Asia

At the heart of South Asia’s poor integration is India-Pakistan rivalry, further complicated by China-Pakistan proximity and India-China hostility. A new dimension has been added with souring of Pakistan-Bangladesh relations and the India-China tug of war over Bangladesh. Time has come to make a paradigm shift in South Asia’s regional integration strategy. Politics and religion aside, across India, Pakistan and Bangladesh (IPB) there are common sociocultural bonds and people-to-people connectivity remains positive.

Caught in a tangle

Today the big three of South Asia are caught up in a complex quagmire, both within and beyond the region. The remaining five — i.e. Bhutan, Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan — are paying the price of regional disintegration caused by unresolved puzzles having roots in the China-IPB (CIPB) axis. If the big three can have a strategic partnership that also factors in China, the remaining five can effortlessly fit into positive regionalism with a win-win situation for all.

IPB account for approximately 95% of South Asia’s GDP and population. Along with China, they account for 18.5% of global GDP and 41% of global population. South Asia’s intra-regional trade, currently 5% of total trade, can grow to $80 billion from the current $28 billion, the lion’s share being within IPB. Pakistan and India have potential trade capacity of $20 billion compared to the current $3 billion. Underdeveloped transport and logistics services and bureaucratic procedures are deterring India-Bangladesh cross border trade, which can grow by 300%. The Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC) has a pivotal position in developing joint investment agreements but sluggish progress in infrastructural development has rendered the corridor nearly comatose. Due to its common borders with China and India, Myanmar’s significance also needs to be factored in.

India continues to be the natural choice for external investors including Chinese multinational enterprises like Alibaba and Xiaomi. In 2016, foreign direct investment to Pakistan rose by 56%, largely due to Chinese investment in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure. Although the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is being developed as a bilateral initiative, if Indian sensitivities can be addressed, it can be a multilateral project, integrating India as well as other South Asian and Central Asian regions. China has already pledged $38 billion to Bangladesh under the BRI. Synergetic integration of the economic corridors with other BRI projects can accelerate inward investment into IPB.

Due to cross-border barriers and lack of transport facilitation among IPB, freight movement is taking place along expensive routes, escalating investment cost. Movement of trucks across the international frontier is confined by absence of cross-border agreements between India and Bangladesh and India and Pakistan. China is injecting huge funds into physical infrastructure such as Pakistan’s Gwadar port project and $20 billion in various Indian industrial and infrastructural projects. China has committed $1.4 billion for building Colombo Port City and is set to invest $1 billion more.

Rail connectivity is restricted due to technical problems of different gauges, track structures, signalling and so forth. Absence of a multilateral agreement has restricted the realisation of the railway potential. The deep-pocketed Chinese can invest in land and rail infrastructure to develop both inter-regional connectivity and intra-regional connectivity. Although India and Bangladesh have started exploring opportunities using Ashuganj inland port, regional inland waterways remain unexplored. Air cargo flights are encumbered by limited access to Indian airspace by Pakistan and vice-versa. China can lead in transport and transit agreements to facilitate smooth movement of freight and passenger vehicles across IPB resulting in integration with China and also South Asia.

The supply-demand gap of power in IPB is estimated to be 18,707 MW. To unravel the full potential, energy treaties based on renewable sources have become imperative. China and India are shifting from fossil fuels to renewables. With greater electricity generation and utilisation of domestic energy endowments, combined efforts of BCIM, CPEC and the proposed China-Nepal-India (CNI) Economic Corridor under BRI, can capitalise on regional energy potential.

By 2050, China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh will experience water shortages. The three largest trans-boundary river basins, Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra, are all within CIPB. This represents a huge potential for water-sharing and hydro power projects across the basins, but political mistrust is an impediment. The Zangmu hydroelectricity dam, situated in the middle reaches of the Brahmaputra, has raised concerns in India over downstream water supply. This damming, along with that of the Ganga, could exacerbate Bangladesh’s downstream water scarcity.

While there exist bilateral river-water sharing treaties between India and Pakistan as well as India and Bangladesh, China is absent except for a hydrological data-sharing collaboration. China has expressed interest to pursue water- sharing treaties and the other three affected can come together in a collaborative framework. This can boost the livelihoods of millions across the region.

India and China are leading globally in terms of Internet and smartphone users, but Internet penetration for these four countries is below 55%, representing immense potential. Bangladesh, Cambodia and China have signed a framework to strengthen digital regional trade. China’s BRI initiative is projected to increase connectivity by developing digital infrastructure.

Between 2016 and 2020, international bandwidth is expected to grow at an average of 43.5% across CPEC and 46.3% across BCIM. Higher broadband connectivity and Internet access can boost regional e-commerce. Digital connectivity can act as the gateway to a holistic transformation of the region via the CIPB conduit.

IPB fail to attract sufficient tourists due to poor civil aviation connectivity, complex regulations and lack of visa liberalisation procedures. Of China’s total outbound tourists, only 1% are to IPB. Inadequate, expensive and mediocre travelling facilities against the backdrop of pickpockets, burglary, and sexual assaults have resulted in tourists lacking interest in the region. Rooms that cost $400 a night in Delhi or Mumbai would cost hardly $100 in most parts of China. China is unable to attract students from South Asia against the improved facilities provided by the U.S. and U.K. Only 5% of outbound students of IPB go to China, compared to 22% to the U.S. If these opportunities are tapped, it would enhance mobility of both tourists and students.

Solving the jigsaw puzzle

The CIPB axis is an open-ended chess game played out against cross-border conflicts. A strategic collaboration that rises to the occasion, looking beyond historical animosity and misgivings, can unlock a new era of regionalism whose benefits far outweigh negatives. Solving the jigsaw puzzle will need political statesmanship which will see friends and foes, living next to each other, knowing where to connect and when to disconnect.

Link:  http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-opinion/heeding-the-lines-on-the-map/article23438510.ece

26. The ASEAN embrace

January 27, 2018 

Syed Munir Khasru

Background:

Attendance of India’s Republic Day by heads of governments of 10 ASEAN states on January 26, 2018 has important strategic implications for South & Southeast Asia and beyond. The article looks into what is at stake for the region from a potential Indo-ASEAN Alliance.

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India can act as a vital bridge between South and East Asia

Prime Minister Narendra Modi used India’s Republic Day to host heads of state/government of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). As India’s ‘Look East Policy’, matures into an ‘Act East Policy’, a strong relationship with ASEAN is no longer a policy option; rather it is an economic and strategic necessity.

Economy, trade, investment

While India-ASEAN trade value stood at $76.53 billion in 2014-15, China-ASEAN trade value reached $452.2 billion in 2016, almost six times than that of India. Similarly, Indian investments continue to remain marginal in the ASEAN region — it was around $224 million in 2015-2016 while Chinese investment over the same period totalled over $3 billion. However, Indian investments in ASEAN are likely to grow as there has been increased liberalisation and deregulation regarding outward foreign investments. The Tata Group already has a strong presence in Myanmar and is investing in the IT and agricultural sectors, which will create capacity and generate employment.

Infrastructure is a key area where there is much potential. The India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project will significantly boost connectivity between India-Myanmar leading up to the rest of Southeast Asia. Enhanced connectivity between the two countries will not only serve India but also neighbouring Bangladesh. A railway or highway such as Bangkok-Yangon-Delhi has to pass through Bangladesh, making the country an intermediate beneficiary. India, which is vying to become a regional leader in South Asia, can score major points with its South Asian neighbours by connecting them to East Asia.

Strategic issues and security

Uncertain regional geopolitics coupled with the rise of economies in the region will require Asian governments to adapt to a newer political environment, economic realities, and a different regulatory ecosystem. Businesses and governments will have to confront disruptions to traditional employment structures and loss of jobs caused by digital technologies and the impending Fourth Industrial Revolution. The region’s multifaceted challenges require dynamic and forward-looking policymaking. To reiterate Mr. Modi’s point, engagement with ASEAN is not only confined to trade and is becoming increasingly multi-dimensional.

India-ASEAN strategic cooperation gets trickier given China’s territorial claim on the resource-rich South China Sea. The tug of war between China and India to dominate the Indian Ocean has given rise to maritime rivalry. When it comes to the South China Sea, it is in India’s interest to have freedom of navigation, unfettered access to common waters and respect for international maritime law. India and the Singapore Navy conducted SIMBEX-17, a week-long bilateral military exercise in the South China Sea in 2017. Given the prevailing regional power imbalance created by a declining U.S. and an assertive China, India and ASEAN are well poised to become strategic partners in ensuring regional peace and stability. Battling non-traditional risks such as terrorism, human trafficking, cybercrime and piracy also provide opportunities for greater cooperation.

Socio-cultural ties

The presence of the Indian diaspora in almost all ASEAN nations has also helped strengthen ties. Almost 1.6 million Indians call Malaysia their second home. The Indian film industry has a huge fan base in Malaysia and Singapore. For example, of the editions of the International Indian Film Academy Awards held so far, a few have been held in ASEAN countries. Southeast Asia is even overtaking Europe as a filming location for Indian films.

With an assertive China driving the Belt and Road Initiative and U.S. disengagement in the region, India has to navigate carefully especially when many nations, including those in ASEAN, are looking for options that promote economic interests and protect territorial sovereignty. At such a critical juncture in East and South Asian geopolitics, the significance of ASEAN from an Indian perspective can hardly be overemphasised. As Singapore’s elder-statesman, Lee Kuan Yew, argued many years ago, India must be “part of the Southeast Asia’s balance of forces” and “a counterweight to China” in the Indian Ocean.

The “Act East” policy needs to be acted upon with a sense of purpose and priority before India can become a reliable and strategic partner of ASEAN.

Link: http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-asean-embrace/article22530926.ece

27. Reaching out to neighbours

November 24, 2017 

Syed Munir Khasru

Background:

As in 2017 ASEAN has been celebrating its 50th Anniversary of enhanced regional trade, connectivity and economic progress, SAARC needs to reflect into why despite geographic proximity, complementarities in trade and potential for higher growth, the regional organization has failed to deliver. The article compares & contrasts the journey of two regional blocs of Asia and highlights lesson’s SAARC can learn from ASEAN to foster regional cooperation and improve the lives of its inhabitants.

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As ASEAN celebrates 50, reflections on SAARC’s failed decades

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is among the world’s largest regional intergovernmental organisations. Since its inception, the countries in the region have become more integrated through enhanced intraregional trade and connectivity. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), geographically proximate to ASEAN, started its journey in 1985 with similar aspirations but over time has failed to deliver. It has been unable to integrate the region through trade and connectivity and continues to be stuck in the quagmire of regional politics and rivalry and stagnates from historical distrust and old animosity.

Study in contrasts

In its first two decades, ASEAN focussed on a limited range of issues, but over time its mandate expanded and now includes climate change, disaster management, counterterrorism, drugs and human trafficking. ASEAN’s greatest success has been its ability to deftly resolve disputes. In the early years, for instance, its unity was challenged by the Philippines-Malaysia dispute over Sabah, but the founding members found a peaceful mechanism to mitigate opposing claims. In the case of SAARC, political squabbles, deep mistrust and military conflict between India and Pakistan have frustrated regional cooperation. The whole region is suffering from lost potential due to India-Pakistan hostility which hit a new low when India boycotted the 19th SAARC summit as a result of the Uri terrorist attack, with Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Bhutan following suit, eventually resulting in cancellation of the summit.

Trade in ASEAN has grown rapidly and it has focussed on promoting rapid economic growth and modernisation. It has created the Comprehensive Investment Agreement (ACIA), which ensures liberalisation and protection of cross-border investments operations, together with best practices for the treatment of foreign investors and investments. On the other hand, trade amongst the SAARC members stands at 3.5% of their total volume of trade. Initiatives under the South Asian Free Trade Association have failed to make much headway. Subregional initiatives like the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal Motor Vehicle Agreement also have stalled.

The Federation of ASEAN Travel Associations (FATA) has called on the ASEAN nations to waive entry requirements amongst the member states. A feasibility study has been conducted on the development of a rail link from Singapore to Kunming in southern China to enhance seamless connectivity among the ASEAN nations to boost intraregional trade and people-to-people connectivity. Projects aimed at promoting the region as a tourist destination have also been undertaken. On the other hand, the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme only allows certain categories of dignitaries to be exempt from visas, excluding ordinary citizens from accessing unimpeded travel in the region. It is difficult for Indians to enter Pakistan and vice versa. Even citizens of other SAARC countries who have visited either India or Pakistan before and now wish to travel to the other face hassles during visa issuance by either country. And SAARC infrastructural problems plague connectivity.

Sub-regional short-cuts

As the biggest country of SAARC, India is trying to exert leadership by forming subregional initiatives like the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). Another objective is to isolate Pakistan. Such attempts to forge sub-regional ties at the cost of jeopardising the regional vision for unity have not been witnessed in ASEAN. When ASEAN was criticised for taking in Myanmar in spite of its military rule, the grouping emphasised the importance of keeping open the channels of communication and engagement as a better means to influence the regime. Bilateral bickering never got in the way of trade and travel.

On the political and economic continuum, ASEAN has behaved pragmatically and sensibly whereas South Asia has been bogged down by bilateral animosity and the bitter legacy of partition. ASEAN members have avoided showing outward hostility against each other and have tried to resolve differences through dialogue, engagement and cooperation. Politicians in SAARC have mostly catered to their domestic constituents without having any broad regional vision, so that it takes years to sign agreements and even more time to implement them. As a regional organisation, while ASEAN has grown from strength to strength. Unless there is a serious and concerted effort by the political leadership of SAARC, led primarily by India and Pakistan, to revitalise the regional body, it will continue to be what it always has been: a utopian idea existing only in summit documents.

Link: http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/reaching-out-to-neighbours/article20723198.ece

28. The disaster next door: on the Rohingya issue

September 11, 2017 

Syed Munir Khasru

Background:

The tragedy unfolding with the Rohingyas is terrible as ethnic cleansing is happening just next door. Unfortunately, the role of India has been disappointing and inconsistent with values and principles that the country espouses. The article in the Hindu looks into the crisis and how India has failed in its role and responsibility as the regional power of South Asia.

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India’s stance on the Rohingya refugees undermines its ties with Bangladesh and its regional leadership

In a span of two weeks, almost 300,000 Rohingya have crossed over to Bangladesh from the northern Rakhine state in Myanmar, putting Bangladesh under immense strain and compelling the refugees to find shelter in squalid, unsanitary camps scattered along the Myanmar-Bangladesh border. Excluded from the 135 officially recognised ethnic groups, the Rohingya have been harassed and hounded by the Myanmar authorities for decades. The latest surge follows attacks on police posts by an extremist Rohingya group in late August and military action. While the Myanmar authorities claim that 400 lives have been lost, advocates cite double this number.

Where is the spirit?

The flight of the Rohingya has quickened in the past two weeks, but Rohingya refugees have been trying to find a home outside their native Rakhine for years now, braving human traffickers and fraught conditions on rickety, overcrowded boats. The Rohingya have also sought refuge in India where they have been shunned, denied basic public services and deemed by authorities as ‘the undesirables’.

While the government has called them to be illegal immigrants and trespassers, the fact is that India, throughout its history, has been generously accommodative towards refugees in the neighbourhood fleeing persecution, which includes Parsis, Tibetans, Afghans, Sri Lankan Tamils, and Bangladeshis during the war of liberation in 1971. India has prided itself in its tradition of Atithi Devo Bhava (the guest is equivalent to god).

The stance on the Rohingya issue by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during his recent visit to Myanmar, has been disappointing and is contradictory to the values of hospitality and inclusiveness that India stands for. South Asia, particularly Bangladesh, which has been most affected by the crisis, was hopeful that Mr. Modi would express concern about the humanitarian crisis with Myanmar’s State Councillor and Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi. Instead, he was seen empathising with Myanmar, and the joint statement at the end of the visit said: “India stands with Myanmar over the issue of violence in the Rakhine state which has led to loss of innocent lives.” In doing so, he overlooked the atrocious crimes committed in the neighbourhood and almost turned a blind eye to both the untold sufferings caused to the refugees fleeing persecution and the resulting difficulties that a resource-constrained country such as Bangladesh has been put to — a country which Indian politicians and officials frequently refer to as a role model of friendship in India’s neighbourhood.

Bangladesh’s burden

International relief agencies in Bangladesh such as the office of the UNHCR and the World Food Programme are struggling to attend to the large number of refugees arriving each day on foot or by boat (picture shows refugees at the border, at Teknaf, Bangladesh). Bangladesh, itself one of the world’s most densely populated nations, has hosted more than 600,000 Rohingya compared to 40,000 by India. Initially, hesitant to open borders along the Naf river, Bangladesh has now started allowing in refugees.

Through the International Committee of the Red Cross, Dhaka has proposed that Myanmar secure areas in Rakhine under international relief agency supervision, but there has been no response so far from Myanmar. Bangladesh has plans of making another 607 hectares of land available near the Myanmar border for camps to accommodate refugees. It has also urged the international community to put pressure on Myanmar to take back the refugees and stop the violence against them. Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina recently said: “It affects a country’s dignity when tens of thousands of its own nationals are fleeing home to take refuge outside.”

On the other side of the fence

Last Friday, India’s move to dissociate itself from the Bali Declaration adopted at the World Parliamentary Forum on Sustainable Development in Indonesia, and which called “on all parties to contribute to the restoration of stability and security ... respect human rights of all people in Rakhine State regardless of their faith and ethnicity, as well as facilitate safe access for humanitarian assistance”, puts into question its respect for human rights and the treatment of minorities. It weakens India’s moral authority to speak for minorities in other parts of its neighbourhood. Interestingly Nepal, Bhutan and Sri Lanka joined the declaration.

In his 2015 visit to Bangladesh, Mr. Modi used eloquent phrases to describe the India-Bangladesh friendship. Since 2009, Bangladesh has emerged as one of India’s most trusted neighbours, with Dhaka addressing almost all of New Delhi’s security concerns. This includes cracking down on cross-border terrorism and insurgency conducted against India from Bangladeshi soil. The India-Bangladesh border today is one of the safest for India, enabling massive redeployment of its vital border resources for other purposes. Despite this, Bangladesh has neither received water from the Teesta or support in times of humanitarian crisis from its biggest neighbour.

Ironically, when Bangladesh procured two submarines from China, indicating the growing economic and defence ties between the two countries, New Delhi rushed its then Union Defence Minister, Manohar Parrikar, to Dhaka to elevate military cooperation. Such promptness is missing when it comes to supporting Bangladesh when it is overcome by helpless refuges persecuted at home and accepted by none. The world does not expect Myanmar’s other big neighbour, China, to be vocal about the atrocities being committed, but as the upholder of democratic values, India has a unique opportunity to demonstrate statesmanship and regional leadership by mediating a solution to the Rohingya crisis on the basis of a report of the Advisory Commission on Rakhine State headed by former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and set up by none other than Ms. Suu Kyi.

While Myanmar is an important factor in India’s ocean diplomacy and a valuable stakeholder in its ‘Look East’ Policy, India’s nonchalant attitude towards the humanitarian plight of the Rohingya reflects inadequate moral leadership and an inability to rise to the occasion as expected from a regional power vying to enhance its influence in the neighbourhood. One of the reasons why India, despite its enviable soft power and formidable hard power, fails to generate confidence in the region, including with friends such as Bangladesh, is its complex geopolitics based more on political opportunism and economic interests as opposed to principles and values, practised consistently. This must be food for thought for India.

Link: http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-disaster-next-door/article19656058.ece

29. The short history of a big deal

April 11, 2017 

Syed Munir Khasru

Background:

Despite significant progress being made in the last eight years in the Indo-Bangla relations, one critical issue that has remained unresolved is the Teesta river water treaty. Inspite the socio-cultural affinity of Bangladesh with West Bengal, it seems that the Bengal of India has become the sore throat in Indo-Bangla relations. The article looks into the issue and the ramifications it may have on both sides of the border.

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The Teesta treaty continues to dominate relations between India and Bangladesh.

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to India and the signing of 36 agreements of cooperation ranging from the economic, defence and power sectors to the peaceful use of nuclear energy shows that significant progress has been made in Indo-Bangla relations in the last eight years. However, the stalled Teesta treaty continues to eclipse bilateral relations as water affects the lives of ordinary people across vast spaces of land. It seems that in spite of the goodwill prevailing in Delhi, West Bengal has become a thorn in Indo-Bangla relations.

Bangladesh shares 54 of its 57 transboundary rivers with India. After the Ganges, Brahmaputra and the Meghna (GBM) river system, Teesta is the fourth largest river shared between the two countries. In 1983, an ad hoc water-sharing agreement allocated 39% of the water flow to India and 36% to Bangladesh and remaining 25% was left unallocated for a later decision. The Teesta river’s floodplain covers an area of 2,750 sq km in Bangladesh, supporting roughly 10 million people. An estimated one lakh hectares of land across five districts of Bangladesh are severely impacted and face acute shortages during dry seasons. Apart from livelihood directly obtained from the river, agriculture is also affected as 14% crop production is dependent on the flow of the river. At stake are the lives of millions of people of Bangladesh who depend on the river for their survival. Therefore, it is imperative that the treaty provide equal allocation of the Teesta, a fair demand from the side of the lower riparian Bangladesh.

So near, yet so far

In 2011, during the visit of former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Dhaka, plans had been confirmed of an interim arrangement of 15 years, with India getting 42.5% and Bangladesh 37.5% of the river during dry seasons. The arrangement also included the setting of a joint hydrological observation station to gather accurate data for the future. The plans fell through when West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee opted out of the delegation led by Dr. Singh to Dhaka, expressing strong reservations against giving Bangladesh a greater share of water.

Hopes were renewed during Ms. Banerjee’s visit to Dhaka in February 2015 when upon arrival she said, “Have trust on me on the Teesta issue... I will have talks on the matter with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.” Despite her reassurances, she continues to flip-flop on her stance on the share Bangladesh should get. Again during the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in June 2015, Ms. Banerjee accompanied the delegation and positive expectations were rife on both sides. The Modi government accepted the new arrangement between India and Bangladesh, but Ms. Banerjee did not. Hence, the deal was not inked despite Mr. Modi saying “rivers should nurture the India-Bangladesh relationship and not become a source of discord”. The general perception was that the Teesta treaty could not be concluded before the West Bengal State elections in April-May 2016. Despite winning the elections for a second consecutive term,  during her recent face-to-face talks with Prime Minister Hasina in Delhi, the Chief Minister stated, “Your problem is water, not Teesta. I am willing to look at any alternate proposal to address your issues.”

Mamata’s flip-flops

When the Chief Minister herself had appointed an expert committee headed by Kalyan Rudra in 2011 to study the Teesta issue, the report, though unpublished, was in favour of Bangladesh.

Says Ainun Nishat, a prominent hydrology expert from Bangladesh, “India has completely dried out the river on our end during lean period by closing all the gates of the Gazaldoba barrage.

That is unexpected from a friendly neighbour. This treaty is a formality, but India cannot ignore our rights to the river water.”

 Ms. Banerjee has sat on the issue and been changing goalposts for six years, with Bangladesh hostage to its neighbour’s domestic politics as a State government refuses to play ball with the Centre. Speculation is now rife that Ms. Banerjee is trying to secure a financial package from Delhi and the Teesta treaty has become the bargaining tool for it. It is ordinary Bangladeshis who are bearing the brunt of this impasse.

With elections slated for early 2019, it is Ms. Hasina whose credibility is at stake at home after all that she has done for taking Indo-Bangla relations to newer heights. Unfortunately, the Bengal of India has become the sore throat in an otherwise evolving and matured Indo-Bangla relations. 

Link: http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/a-short-history-of-a-big- deal/article17912359.ece

30. Speak up for the Rohingyas

December 26, 2016 

Syed Munir Khasru

Background:

The role of India, one of the most important and immediate neighbors with common border with both Myanmar and Bangladesh, on the Rohingya crisis has been rather depressingly tightlipped and mostly passive. Indian officials have not made any robust statement on one of the longest minority persecution cases in the world. This stance is inconsistent with India's pluralistic democratic ideologies. The attached article sheds light into the inconsistencies and what is at stake for India as it aspires for a leadership role in the region.

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How India responds to the crisis will give a clue to its aspirations as a South Asian power

As a response to protests in East and South Asia and beyond over the deteriorating Rohingya situation in Rakhine, Myanmar called for a special meeting with Foreign Ministers of ASEAN last Monday in Yangon. The crisis has already killed 130 Rohingya Muslims, and has left dozens of buildings in their villages torched. Around 30,000 Rohingyas have been displaced internally and thousands have tried to flee to neighbouring countries, especially Bangladesh, through perilous routes. While leaders of the European Union have proactively debated and responded quite positively to finding a humane solution to the European migration crisis, emerging leaders in Asia such as China and India have remained mostly passive on the long-standing Rohingya refugee crisis, one that has direct geopolitical implications for both countries. China and India share a border with Myanmar and have vested economic interests in the country owing to trade and investment ties. And yet, the response of India, the most mature democracy in Asia with much-touted pluralistic and secular ideologies, is rather disappointing.

Selective help

The plight of the Hindu minorities in neighbouring Bangladesh is always taken seriously by India. In June, when a priest from Bangladesh’s Ramakrishna Mission received a death threat, allegedly from the Islamic State, India swung into action, and the issue was given high priority by the Ministry of External Affairs. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Bangladesh was immediately contacted by the Indian High Commission in Dhaka. Similarly, in the last five years, around 1,200 Hindus facing persecution in Pakistan have been provided shelter in Delhi. However, the Rohingya issue, which is also the persecution of minorities in a neighbouring state and on a much larger scale, has garnered little attention from Indian policymakers. The inevitable question then is, do the Rohingyas or any other minority group have to belong to a particular religion to get the attention and importance they deserve from India?

 In spite of them living in Myanmar for decades, the Rohingyas have no legal standing and are seen as illegal settlers from Bangladesh. There are restrictions on them in areas such as land ownership, marriage, employment, education, and movement. In the 2014 census, the first in three decades, Myanmar officials said they would not accept those who registered themselves as Rohingyas. Buddhist nationalists threatened to boycott the tally over fears that it could lead to official recognition for the Rohingyas. The temporary ID cards which were given to the minority community were also revoked in 2015 as result of protests from Buddhist majority groups.

India has a robust civil society, media, and human rights groups, but there are hardly any voices on the pathetic plight of Rohingya Muslims. The only exception was in 2012 when civil society groups urged the then Indian Prime Minister to end violence against the Rohingyas by engaging with Aung San Suu Kyi’s pro-democratic National League for Democracy party. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, there are around 9,000 Rohingyas registered in Delhi and thousands more unregistered living in other parts of the country.

If India wants to project itself as a regional leader, it has to rise above narrow economic and geopolitical interests and take a stance consistent with the moral and spiritual values with which it identifies. The crisis not only holds humanitarian significance, but also bears security implications for India and the region. The persecuted Rohingya Muslims are likely to provide fertile recruiting grounds for extremist groups. There have already been reports of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan funding terrorist outfits in Myanmar. In 1971, India provided shelter to millions of

East Pakistani refugees. The end of the war also saw one of the most orderly and peaceful return of refugees to their land from India.

The cost of turning a blind eye

This shows that India has a good track record of providing humanitarian assistance and facilitating smooth repatriation of refugees from the neighborhood. However, that spirit seems to be missing today in the case of the Rohingyas. The legal conundrum faced by the Rohingyas in their native land and their lack of access to bare minimum human rights goes against the principles of the universal declaration of human rights. The UN has declared the group as one of the most persecuted minorities in the world. The international community only speaks out when the refugee crisis reaches its worst stage — when villages are torched, or people are stranded at sea in search of land to take refuge. The crisis, if left at its current precarious stage, risks spiralling out of control and will have security and economic implications for its neighbours.

Oversight and nonchalance may prove to be costly in the long run.

Link: http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-opinion/Speak-up-for-the-Rohingyas/article16943430.ece

31. A wrong turn with the Rohingyas

December 15, 2016

Syed Munir Khasru

Background:

Tension in South East Asia resurfaced after the military intervention in Myanmar's North Rakhine State's Rohingya community which already has resulted in the death of 130 people. This incident has not only national but also regional implication given how the refugee crisis destabilizes and strains relations in the region. The article sheds light into the plight of the Rohingyas and the need for the Burmese government, army and international community to come together in finding a lasting solution to the ongoing predicament which risks becoming an insurgency and separatist movement at a time when Myanmar can afford it least.

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The October killings and displacement should be investigated fairly and a long-term solution found

Myanmar’s de facto ruler Aung San Suu Kyi has called for a special informal meeting with Foreign Ministers of ASEAN next Monday in Yangon to discuss international concerns over the state of the Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine. Since October 9, when soldiers poured into Rakhine, over 130 Rohingyas have been killed and dozens of buildings in their villages torched. The United Nations estimates that 30,000 Rohingyas have been displaced by the ongoing violence in Rakhine. According to analysis of satellite images from Human Rights Watch, more than 1,000 houses in Rohingya villages have been razed in northwestern Myanmar. Bangladesh has provided food and shelter to around 30,000 documented Rohingyas.

Perilous lives

Assuming office as the State Counsellor of Myanmar after her party’s landslide victory in 2015, Ms. Suu Kyi initiated the formation of an independent and representative advisory commission led by former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to seek “lasting solutions” to the Rohingya crisis. This was the first time any concrete initiative was undertaken by the Myanmar authorities after the

 2012 Rakhine State riots between the Rakhine Buddhist majority and the Rohingya Muslim minority.

Since the enactment of the 1982 Burma Citizenship Law, which effectively denies to the Rohingyas the possibility of acquiring a nationality, the 1.33 million Rohingyas have led perilous and uncertain lives and have migrated in large numbers to safer places. The recent military intervention was initiated to track down unidentified insurgents thought to be responsible for the attack on police border posts on October 9 in Maungdaw village in which nine Burmese policemen were shot dead. Maungdaw was immediately declared a counterterrorism “operation zone” and from October 10, humanitarian aid to the region was suspended. Reports of a crackdown by the army are difficult to verify due to limited media access to Rakhine. The army maintains that the buildings were, in fact, demolished by the Rohingyas themselves, and requested international media to examine all claims.

In a democratic setting, the killings on October 9, even if actually committed by Rohingya insurgents, should have been investigated through the formation of an independent judicial commission following which appropriate administrative, legal, and punitive measures should have been taken against the perpetrators. Launching a hasty and brutal military crackdown is not the answer, for it hardly makes any distinction between vulnerable villagers fleeing their homes and those who have committed the crime.

The State Counsellor Office Information Committee claimed that the army’s involvement in Rakhine was intended to be an “area clearance” operation in the inner part of the region. However, continued denial of access to the international media raises legitimate questions on the credibility of such statements released by the government. Mr. Annan said: “We stressed in all our meetings that wherever security operations might be necessary, civilians must be protected at all times, and I urge the security services to act in full compliance with the rule of law.”

A long way to go

Crackdown by the military, lack of proper judiciary processes, unavailability of NGOs and aid workers, and limited media access are all reminders that a country that has finally found democracy after decades of struggle still has a long way to go before vestiges of the past mired by blood and conflict can become a distant memory. There is still hope in Ms. Suu Kyi’s leadership, the military’s pragmatism, and the goodwill that the international community now has for Mynamar. This new democracy needs to find a lasting solution to the Rohingya crisis, as much for itself as for the refugees who should not be either forgotten or forsaken by the global community. Migrants, whether in Asia or Europe, should be treated with the same degree of humanity.

Link: http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/A-wrong-turn-with-the- Rohingyas/article16806125.ece

32. The power of Bollywood

October 26, 2016 

Syed Munir Khasru

Background:

India has enormous soft power through Bollywood which has won the hearts and minds of South Asians, including Pakistanis; propagating its lofty values even in hostile territory. India's moving towards banning cultural exchange with Pakistan and Pakistan doing the same is self-defeating for both the countries. In fact, India has more to lose than Pakistan as India's film industry and the resulting soft power is far too ahead of Pakistan.

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The India-Pakistan conflict has sadly spilled into the cultural realm, attenuating forces that provide the little glimmer of hope for an integrated, peaceful and prosperous South Asia: culture, arts, music, movies, and people-to-people relations. Art and culture have no nation, no boundaries, and no religion. Works of art are priceless treasures of the world regardless of where they originate. The recent farcical fiasco over the release of Karan Johar’s new movie Ae Dil Hai Mushkil has shown how India’s short-sighted politicians either fail to see art that way, or how they see it that way and fail to take a stand. In India, hateful, jingoist, chest-thumping rhetoric seems to successfully muffle voices of reason, love, and compassion.

Realising the South Asian dream

 South Asia, home to 1.7 billion people, has been the least integrated region in the world, with India-Pakistan relations being the biggest hurdle in the way of realising the South Asian dream. So when India-Pakistan relations reach a standstill, the ones who stand to lose are not only Indians and Pakistanis but all South Asians of eight different nationalities. As a non-Indian representing the South Asian population, I am perturbed by the recent developments. Bollywood may belong to Indians nationally, but it belongs to all South Asians emotionally.

Some have questioned the inability or unwillingness of the state to assert its authority and stand up against hooliganism and extra-constitutional threats, pointing out how the Maharashtra Chief Minister’s Office’s role has been similar to that of a school principal deciding to side with a school bully who is taking on a soft target. The clarion call for banning Pakistani actors, technicians, and musicians from working in India came from the far-right political party, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) headed by Raj Thackeray, a rebellious Shiv Sena offshoot. Both the MNS and the Shiv Sena have a long history of preaching hatred and jingoistic ideologies, and launching political attacks, threats, and even violence against soft targets such as movie stars and cricket teams, and north Indians. The MNS threatened to not only vandalise theatres on the opening day of the film’s release but also beat up filmmakers who star Pakistanis in their movies (for example, Mr. Johar). They also threatened Pakistani actors working in Bollywood and Indian actors who took a stand against the call for a ban; in other words, they threatened anyone who was not ready to dance to their tunes.

To say that the MNS’s allegations against Mr. Johar are nonsensical is an understatement. First, when the production of Ae Dil Hai Mushkil was in progress, India-Pakistan political relations were normal. When the Uri attack broke out, there was no going back as the production was over, and replacing an actor in the film would have meant redoing the entire movie. Even if Mr. Johar wanted to comply with the outrageous demand of the MNS, it was too late. Yet, the cowering reaction from Mr. Johar, the walking embodiment of liberal suavity, is a disappointment as well. Yes, by not taking a stand he may have protected his hard work and hard cash, but it puts into question his own commitment to liberal values and standing up for what is right, which has a certain price tag. The scoreboard reads: jingoism-1; liberal values and freedom of speech-0.

Thanks to Bollywood, India has enormous soft power on the world stage, even more than neighbouring China which is much stronger both militarily and economically. Indian movies and songs are extremely popular even in Pakistan, where millions laugh and cry, revelling not only in movies likeBajrangi Bhaijaan or PK , but also Bollywood movies that have nothing to do with Pakistan. Bollywood represents the perfect medium for India to win the hearts and minds of millions throughout the world, including Pakistan and other parts of South Asia. By banning a handful of Pakistani actors, and musicians, and taking the hostility to a cultural level, India elicited the Pakistani response of a ban on Indian movies as well as content. As a result, India actually closed a frontier of influence where it had a natural advantage over Pakistan, which had none. Even for the jingoist chest-thumpers, this is a strategic blunder.

Movies as scapegoats

The positive power of cultural exchange in easing political tensions can hardly be overemphasised. When India-Bangladesh relations became tense in the 1980s over the Farakka Barrage dispute, there was a popular saying in Delhi and Dhaka that if Bangladesh was willing to trade Runa Laila, the Bangladeshi singer who was very popular in India, for water, India would remove the dam.

While the statement has no official value, it shows the power of cultural exchanges in building bridges, and normalising strained diplomatic relationships.

India has pointed out several times that it did not forgo its long-term vision of a well-functioning South Asia. Neither did it withdraw itself from regional projects involving both India and Pakistan (namely, the TAPI gas pipeline connecting Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, and the IPI pipeline connecting Iran, Pakistan and India), nor did it cut off official diplomatic ties with Pakistan. If diplomatic relationships can survive amidst conflict, why should innocuous things like movies and cultures be scapegoats?

Link:  http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-opinion/the-power-of- bollywood/article9268736.ece

33. Nailing the neighbourly dividend

June 24, 2016 

Syed Munir Khasru

Background:

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Dhaka on June 6-7, 2015 saw the signing of 22 bilateral documents between India and Bangladesh, including the ratification of the four-decade-old Land Boundary Agreement. The Hindu is one of the most well respected and influential media outlets of India and the article analyzes the progress made in Indo-Bangla relations since the visit of the Prime Minister Modi and the need for India to keep up the momentum.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Dhaka last year raised hopes for the settlement of old issues between India and Bangladesh. “We are not just neighbours. We are two nations bound by the threads of history, religion, culture, language and kinship…,” Mr. Modi said. India-Bangladesh relations have become warm through closer economic and strategic ties — 22 agreements were signed, including the historic ratification of the Land Boundary Agreement. One year since, it is time to reflect on the progress.

One of the worst periods in India-Bangladesh relations was between 2001 and 2006. Only minor protocols or agreements were signed during that time and there was a surge in insurgency activities in the Northeast with the United Liberation Front of Asom and the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland, among other outfits, crossing the border for training. From 2009 onwards, as cross- border issues were addressed, bilateral relationship improved and progress was made in some key areas.

Cross-border trade

Bangladesh imported products worth $5.82 billion from India in the last fiscal year. India also exports goods estimated more than $5 billion through informal channels, making the volume of official and non-official trade approximately the same. Informal trade is mostly due to corruption and inadequate border infrastructure. Bangladesh’s exports to India were only at $527 million with almost 20 per cent being ready-made garments. Other items include jute products, agro processed and non-processed foods, and light engineering products.

Despite duty-free access, Bangladeshi exporters face high non-tariff barriers in the form of bureaucratic and customs bottlenecks, delays due to manual clearance, visa problems, lack of banking services and warehouse facilities at the border. The cost of cross-border trade is quite high. ‘Border Haats’, or markets across the India-Bangladesh border, were a successful solution to increase legal business on the borders. Recently, Bangladesh and India have agreed to set up six more haats along their borders.

Cattle trade and border killing

One bone of contention has been cattle trade. In India, the number of cows is three times more than what is needed to produce the volume of milk consumed nationally, and eating beef is a religious stigma in many places. These surplus cows are mostly donated to temples where they are tied to fences, die from dehydration and the remains sold to leather merchants. Exporting such cows to Bangladesh, which tantamount to making gains from sunk capital, is still prohibited, leading to cattle smuggling.

Border killing of Bangladeshis by the Indian Border Security Force is a continued concern. From 2010-2015, at least 236 Bangladeshis have been killed by BSF personnel. Compared to that, killings along the U.S.-Mexico border by U.S. Border Patrol since 2010 been only 48 whereas drugs worth billions are smuggled across the border. Cattle, even if smuggled, can’t be worse than drugs, and shooting the offenders is not the right solution when there are options for imprisonment, fines, and confiscation. In the most recent incident, the BSF killed two more Bangladeshi nationals on Charaldanga frontier in Chapainawabganj on June 20 for allegedly smuggling illegal goods. Similarly, the latest decision by the Indian Home Minister to completely seal off border with Assam by June 2017 is inconsistent with healthy neighbourly relations.

Power, connectivity and water

Government-to-government power trade is 1,300 MW from India to Bangladesh. India’s state-run Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) is building the Rampal coal-fired power plant in Bangladesh despite environmental concerns that the Sundarbans is situated only 14 km away from the proposed site. In the private sector, Reliance Power has won approval to set up a 750 MW LNG-based power plant and an LNG terminal in Bangladesh, paving the way for $1.3 billion investment, and Adani Group is set to sell 3,000 MW power to Bangladesh. On connectivity, the focus has been on road, rail, rivers, sea, transmission lines, petroleum pipelines, and digital links that would give Delhi access to the Northeast and to Southeast Asia through Bangladesh. Bangladesh-India coastal shipping began in March this year, and trains are set to run from Kolkata to Agartala, a project to be completed by 2017. Trucks carrying Indian goods reached Tripura from Ashuganj port on June 19, making the long-cherished idea of transhipment into reality.

The Teesta water-sharing agreement had been stalled due to the West Bengal elections. As Mamata Banerjee has swept back to power, it is time to deliver on the promise. India had also undertaken the Tipaimukh project on the Barak river without officially informing Bangladesh. If built, the dam will adversely affect nearly 40,000 people in Bangladesh. With resistance from Bangladesh and Manipur, the project has been temporarily deferred.

While progress has been made since Mr. Modi’s visit, greater issues are still at bay. The time is ripe to build on the successes and resolve the remaining issues. As the pragmatic new-generation Bangladeshis have shed the anti-India mindset of the 1970s, the challenge for India is to keep up the momentum and not to be perceived as being tied to any particular party or ideology but only to the people of Bangladesh. As Mr. Modi stated: “We stand at a moment of huge opportunity in our relationship… we will work together to harness the rich potential of our relationship.” He is walking but yet to match his talk, making room for cautious optimism.

Link: http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/nailing-the-neighbourly- dividend/article8765313.ece