Hindustan Times
Table of Content
1. Elections shine a spotlight on Delhi-Dhaka ties
January 3, 2024
Syed Munir Khasru
A foundation of clear-eyed, fact-based assessments of each other’s policies and actions is indispensable to improving Delhi-Dhaka relations.
As Bangladesh prepares for its 12th parliamentary polls on January 7, speculation abounds on the impact of the election outcome on Dhaka’s relationship with Delhi. From historic landmarks such as the 2015 land boundary agreement to lows during 2001-2006, when a coalition led by the current Opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), was in office, India-Bangladesh relations have gone through periodical ups and downs. Bangladesh emerged as India’s biggest trade partner in South Asia crossing $15 billion in 2022 and is a major recipient of Indian foreign direct investment, exceeding $3.5 billion in 2021. The strengthening of economic ties highlights pragmatic considerations that go beyond political rhetoric and challenge simplistic binaries.
The ruling Awami League (AL) in Bangladesh is historically perceived as closely aligned with India, while the BNP is thought to harbour anti-India sentiments. A deeper look reveals an intricate tapestry of cooperation and conflict underpinning the ties. The widely held belief that the AL and India share a deep ideological affinity, at times oversimplifies a relationship grounded in strategic realities and mutual interests.
Dhaka’s collaboration with Delhi in cracking down on insurgents operating from Bangladesh, for instance, the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), is cited as evidence of the political alignment of AL with the Indian political establishment. However, the reality is more complex as the Sheikh Hasina government faced challenges from radical Islamist groups like Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB). It was a convergence of mutual interests, especially safeguarding the stability of both the border and internal security.
Landmark agreements, such as the 2015 land boundary agreement, are indicative of a relationship founded on pragmatism rather than ideological camaraderie. Similarly, the coastal shipping deal in 2015 opened new sea routes, boosting bilateral trade volumes, while the 2017 international rail links deal restored crucial railway links, improving overall connectivity and trade relations.
However, challenges persist. The Teesta water-sharing agreement remains unresolved, hindered by domestic opposition in West Bengal. The Tipaimukh Dam project raises Bangladesh’s concern about downstream impacts, with environmental assessments yet to allay fears. Border killings, allegedly due to the excessive use of force by security forces, continue to be a recurring issue. The AL’s alignment with India, oversimplified as a political and ideological embrace, is in reality rooted in a pragmatic understanding of shared strategic interests. The complexities of their collaboration, as evidenced by successes as well as ongoing challenges, underscore the need for a more balanced perspective on this crucial relationship in South Asia.
Apprehensions of an anti-India backlash in the event of a BNP coming to power — the BNP has now decided to boycott the elections — are based on historical precedents and nationalistic rhetoric. The BNP’s 2001-2006 term in office saw a rise in radical Islamist groups like Harkat-ul Jihad and JMB, fostering concerns over increased anti-India attacks and strained bilateral relations. However, a nuanced examination unveils complexities as the BNP is not a monolithic entity and has both moderate and hardline factions, with varying stances on India. This dynamic is underscored by events like the 2004 arms haul in Chittagong, revealing a massive cache of weapons that raised questions about illicit arms trafficking, further complicating ramifications for regional stability as then Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi alleged that the arms consignment was meant for the separatist ULFA guerillas operating in the state.
During an interview in 2014, when asked what she would have done differently than Sheikh Hasina on relations with India, BNP leader Khaleda Zia said: “Unlike the Awami League government, I would have sought mutuality of gains in our bilateral relations in all area. A future BNP government will encourage greater people-to-people contact... to diversify our relations and cooperation in all fields”.
Moving beyond a simplistic pro- and anti-India binary is imperative in understanding Bangladesh’s political landscape. The AL, despite fostering friendly ties with Delhi, has prioritised Bangladesh’s economic interests and welcomed infrastructure projects financed by China, India’s foremost regional rival. Similarly, the BNP’s strong rhetoric is sobered by pragmatic acknowledgement of economic interdependence. Recognising these complexities is essential for a better understanding of the dynamics that shape Bangladesh’s political leadership relations with India.
A foundation of clear-eyed, fact-based assessments of each other’s policies and actions is indispensable to improving Delhi-Dhaka relations. Communication channels engaging various political parties and stakeholders across borders can help dispel misgivings and misperceptions. Shared interests in regional trade, investment, connectivity, energy cooperation, climate resilience, maritime security, and economic integration should serve as the cornerstone of collaboration. This is an opportune moment for the leadership in both countries to reflect a vision that is progressive and mutually beneficial, recognising the nuanced interplay of economic, strategic, and demographic factors for both India and Bangladesh.
Link: https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/elections-shine-a-spotlight-on-delhi-dhaka-ties-101704290286353.html
2. A Delhi-Dhaka duet for the present and future
December 6, 2023
Syed Munir Khasru
In a fractured South Asia, India-Bangladesh ties are an exemplar of pragmatic political leadership and diplomatic sagacity.
In late November, Bangladesh foreign secretary Masud Bin Momen met his Indian counterpart Vinay Kwatra in Delhi for this year’s second Foreign Office Consultations (FOC). Since this is likely the last high-level meeting before both countries head for elections, a sober reflection of the past 15 years of Indo-Bangladesh relations — since the Awami League came into power in Bangladesh — is timely.
Bangladesh holds a prominent position as India’s largest development and trading partner in South Asia, and India is Bangladesh’s second-largest trading partner globally. Both nations are acknowledged as engines of growth, drawing strength from four vital forms of capital: The abundant availability of cost-effective human capital, a deeply ingrained social capital rooted in shared values, rich biodiversity serving as natural capital, and substantial growth in physical infrastructure. This synergy positions them as key drivers of growth and development in the region. Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina’s leadership has instilled greater confidence in India to pursue a more robust neighbourhood policy. Dhaka is recognised by India as an important strategic partner in the region. The positive trajectory of Bangladesh’s economic growth underlines its significance in the region and reinforces the potential for collaborative initiatives between the two nations.
Indo-Bangla trade relations have grown manifold in recent times. During 2008-09, bilateral trade was around $2.8 billion, which reached $18.2 billion in 2021-22 This comprised $16.2 billion in Indian exports and $2 billion in imports. On October 1, India-Bangladesh engaged in discussions regarding the initiation of talks for a free-trade agreement to foster and strengthen economic ties between the nations. The proposed trade agreement is expected to boost exports from Bangladesh to India and help reduce the trade imbalance. India and Bangladesh agreeing to settle some international trade payments in Indian rupees will alleviate pressure on Dhaka’s dollar reserves.
This initiative promotes bilateral trade, starting with Indian rupees and later transitioning to Bangladeshi taka, reducing currency-related expenses for Bangladesh and capitalising on the stability and potential advantages of the rupee’s exchange rate dynamics.
Over the past 15 years, there has been a significant enhancement in connectivity, energy collaboration, and other areas. On November 1, PM Modi and PM Hasina, jointly inaugurated three India-supported development projects — the Akhaura-Agartala Cross-Border Rail Link, the Khulna-Mongla Port Rail Line, and Unit II of the Maitree Super Thermal Power Plant in Rampal, Bangladesh. In July 2010, India and Bangladesh also entered into a 35-year agreement for power transmission, allowing the transfer of 250 MW of electricity from India to Bangladesh.
In December 2019, Bangladesh agreed to purchase 718 MW of electricity from Reliance Power, spanning a period of the next 22 years. This year, Adani Power has commenced electricity export to Bangladesh from its 1,600 MW facility located in Godda, Jharkhand. Earlier this year, the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline (IBFP) was inaugurated, which is a cross-border energy pipeline connecting India and Bangladesh, equipped to transport 1 million metric tons per annum (MMTPA) of high-speed diesel (HSD) to Bangladesh.
A key element shaping bilateral relations since PM Modi assumed office has been deepening India’s Northeastern region’s relations with Bangladesh. Dhaka has responded positively, resulting in various levels of sustained engagement on this front. Of the 4,096 km-long border with India, Bangladesh and Northeast India share 1,879 km, with a substantial portion being riverine. This provides water sharing opportunities, catering to both navigational and economic endeavours.
The widely discussed Teesta water sharing agreement remains unresolved. In 2011, the two countries came close to finalising a water sharing treaty whereby India was slated to receive 42.5% of the water and Bangladesh around 37.5% in the dry season. However, West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee vetoed the proposal as water supply remains within the jurisdiction of state governments in India, and the proposed treaty was not implemented.
Border killings on the India-Bangladesh border continue to be a contentious issue. The Bangladeshi human rights group Odhikar has alleged that the Indian border forces are responsible for the deaths of at least 334 Bangladeshis since 2011, along with numerous instances of severe abuse.
Under PM Hasina and PM Modi, the India-Bangladesh relationship has experienced a steady rise despite the failures in Teesta river water sharing, addressing trade imbalance and border fatalities. As elections approach, the challenge is to make continuity of progress independent of the political leadership that may emerge post-election.
In the fractured South Asian regional integration, the Indo-Bangla relationship is an exemplar of pragmatic political leadership and diplomatic sagacity. To have otherwise will not only be self-defeating but also a regression that neither country can afford.
Link: https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/a-delhi-dhaka-duet-for-the-present-and-future-101701868268530.html
3. 49 years on, India, Bangladesh should deal with unresolved issues
December 16, 2020
Syed Munir Khasru
Background:
Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in South Asia. Despite the “role model” relationship of both the countries. India-Bangladesh Virtual Summit to be held on December 17, 2020 between the leaders of both the nations; (PMs) Narendra Modi and Sheikh Hasina should be used to resolve the issues like the Teesta water-sharing dispute, Security of the Bangladeshis on the Indo-Bangla border among others.
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As Bangladesh marks its liberation war victory day on December 16, it is a good time to look at a crucial question that was both central to that era and is relevant even in the present day: where do Delhi-Dhaka ties stand now?
Vikram Doraiswami, the Indian high commissioner to Bangladesh, said in his first press briefing in Dhaka, “There is not, and will never be, a diminution of the highest level of importance that Bangladesh holds in India.” The leaders of the two nations, Prime Ministers (PMs) Narendra Modi and Sheikh Hasina, meet virtually on December 17, and it is clear that relations need a serious reboot.
On the economic front, Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in South Asia. Between 2009-10 and 2015-16, the trade deficit grew in India’s favour at a staggering 164.4%. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from India to Bangladesh is $3.11 billion, including Reliance’s $642-million 745 MW gas-fired project and Adani’s $400 million in Mirsarai Economic Zone. Despite India-Bangladesh relations being referred to as a “role model”, the irony is that in India’s Consolidated FDI policy 2017, Bangladesh is put in the same category as Pakistan. The FDI policy’s para 3.1.1 says, “A non-resident entity can invest in India…However, a citizen of Bangladesh/Pakistan or an entity incorporated in Bangladesh/Pakistan can invest only under the Government route.”
But there is good news too. Today, India and Bangladesh are better connected and goods are transported by road, rail and river routes using Bangladeshi vessels, trucks and railway. Recent agreements allow India to ship goods through Mongla port road, rail, and water routes.
The border remains sensitive. In spite of Section 11 (11) of the India-Bangladesh Coordinated Border Management Plan --- which says, “Neither side will resort to the use of lethal weapons except in self-defence against terrorists or smugglers” --- at least 25 Bangladeshi civilians were killed by the Border Security Force (BSF) in the first six months of this year. On the United States (US)-Mexico border, infamous for the narcotics trade, 111 were killed by the US border patrol force since 2010. In that period, 294 Bangladeshis were killed on the Indo-Bangla border.
Water remains another difficult issue. Bangladeshis have observed the tug-of-war on the Teesta water-sharing issue between the Centre and state. Indian PMs are sometimes accompanied by West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee during state visits to Dhaka; sometimes the CM has visited on her own. But all that has transpired are empty promises, as rivers run dry and farmers are cut off from their livelihood. However, during PM Sheikh Hasina’s India tour, an MoU was signed allowing India 1.82 cusecs of water from the Feni River.
India’s controversial Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) and National Register of Citizens (NRC) have created a negative impression in Bangladesh of India’s intent, which the Bangladesh Prime Minister termed “unnecessary”. Syed Muazzem Ali, the late Bangladesh high commissioner to India and recipient of the Padma Bhushan, once said, “Bangladeshis are not interested to migrate to India; they would rather go to Italy.” The CAA excludes Muslims from being granted citizenship as persecuted minorities, while the NRC in Assam excluded 1.9 million people, majority of them Muslims. The NRC and CAA can’t be brushed aside as “internal matters” when they have ramifications across the border.
The China factor also adds another dimension to the ties. Bangladesh is China’s second-largest arms export destination. Chinese firms have been outbidding their Indian counterparts in infrastructure projects. Bangladesh is deftly navigating relations with its two biggest neighbours in a neighbourhood in flux. Nepal is increasingly becoming closer to China; Bhutan has withdrawn from the Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal (BBIN) initiative, Sri Lanka and the Maldives are playing a balancing act, both rooted in Chinese investments; Afghanistan is increasingly under the Taliban’s sphere of influence as the US withdraws troops. In a thaw in relations, Pakistan’s high commissioner to Bangladesh recently met the Bangladesh PM as both sides pledged to improve bilateral relations.
If Indo-Bangla relations are to move to “newer heights”, then unresolved issues have to be dealt with soon. Any dithering on this, with the region’s only trusted partner, may prove costly for India if it wants to avoid the kind of catch-up diplomacy it has been doing in the neighbourhood in the wake of the growing Chinese threat and Beijing’s widening influence in South Asia.
4. Bangladesh is a huge opportunity for India
April 09, 2015
Syed Munir Khasru
Background:
Inspite the at times uneasy relationship between Bangladesh & India, there is much untapped potential that can be exploited to the advantage of both the nations. The need of the hour is to build trust by putting Indian political assurances into concrete actions and not just mere words. For Bangladesh, the challenge is to attract Indian investment by creating a business environment. South Asia is one of the least integrated regions of the world as SAARC continues to be a more symbolic than functional organization.
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India-Bangladesh relations were discussed during last month’s meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee. The latter was reportedly supportive of the NDA government’s move to pass the India-Bangladesh Land Border Agreement (LBA) Bill. She was also positive on the Teesta water sharing pact. Modi is keen to settle both issues before he visits Bangladesh this year.
Sikkim, meanwhile, has placed its bets on building a slew of dams on the Teesta to generate 1,200 MW of hydropower. Water diversion at the Gazaldoba barrage remains a concern. Modi has been persuading Pawan Chamling, chief minister of Sikkim, where Teesta originates, to release more water to Bangladesh and West Bengal.
Bangladesh has pro-actively responded to India’s request for curbing cross-border violence. The Burdwan blast and the arrest of JMB terrorists in Assam highlight the importance of such cooperation. India’s recent proposal for a counter-terrorism pact builds on past achievements.
However, human rights groups in Bangladesh report that dozens of people have been gunned down by the BSF. A joint patrol along the international border will help to address this and combat smuggling.
The Confederation of Indian Industry has identified potential sectors for Indian investment in Bangladesh, including electrical machinery, agro processing, automobiles, textiles and organic chemicals. Despite such potential less than 3% of India’s total outward FDI flow was to Bangladesh in 2013.
Indian investment in Bangladesh during January-September 2014 was only $54 million — lagging behind eight countries, including Pakistan. India and Bangladesh need to exploit untapped potential by improving connectivity and removing trade barriers. The cross-border Akhaura-Agartala railway link, strengthening connectivity between India’s North-East and Bangladesh, can be a good start.
Given the congenial atmosphere prevailing in both New Delhi and Dhaka, it is time to transform Indian assurances into actions. Bangladesh also needs to actively facilitate increased Indian investment. Good economics leads to good politics and ultimately helps build strong ties between the neighbours.