1. Why Bangladesh is not Pakistan

December 02, 2024

Prof. Syed Munir Khasru

https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/bangladesh-pakistan-iskcon-row-9702071/

2. COP29 and India: Education in the shadow of the climate crisis

November 13, 2024

Prof. Syed Munir Khasru

https://www.ipag.org/cop29-and-india-education-in-the-shadow-of-the-climate-crisis/

With global leaders convening at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, one of the key concerns is the rapidly worsening effects of climate change that are resulting in severe disruption to education, with climate-related challenges impacting over 400 million students globally. Additionally, climate change is estimated to contribute to 2,50,000 deaths annually from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea, and heat stress. Its devastating impacts are being acutely felt in the heart of Indian society as the country’s educational and healthcare systems are bearing the brunt of rising temperatures, recurrent floods, and erratic weather patterns, putting the lives and futures of millions of children and vulnerable citizens at risk.

Education and climate

Across various states, extreme heat has forced schools to close for the first time. Temperatures have surged beyond 50 degrees Celsius, rendering classrooms with little and/or no ventilation unfit for learning. The closures are not disruptions, rather, they are necessary for survival. Overcrowded and poorly ventilated classrooms are becoming dangerous environments and shutting them down is the only way to protect students from the adverse health effects of the heat.

The situation is especially damaging for rural and low-income urban areas with limited resources. Many schools lack basic infrastructure like electricity, and classrooms without fans or cooling systems quickly become oppressive spaces. The effects on students’ education are severe. Studies are interrupted, dropout rates rise, and educational inequalities worsen as climate-related challenges create insurmountable obstacles to learning.

Moreover, climate change is fuelling a new wave of displacement. In coastal and flood-prone regions, families are increasingly forced to migrate due to rising sea levels and frequent flooding. This disruption tears children from their schools, trapping them in a cycle of instability that raises the likelihood of permanent dropouts. Hard-fought progress in educational access is being undone by climate-induced migration, threatening the future of countless students.

Health under siege

In urban areas like Mumbai, the impact of climate change is playing out in a different way. Annual flooding, aggravated by erratic rainfall, is contaminating the water supply, leading to outbreaks of diseases such as cholera and dengue. Clean water has become a scarce commodity, and families are left boiling water multiple times a day in a desperate attempt to stave off infection. These struggles to access basic resources highlight the health risks that climate change is exacerbating.

India’s healthcare system, especially in rural areas, is ill-equipped to handle the pressures climate change is creating. Warmer, wetter conditions are perfect for mosquito-borne diseases, which are now spreading more widely and for longer periods. Diseases like malaria and dengue, once seasonal, have become persistent threats, particularly in communities that lack the resources to fight back. In cities, respiratory illnesses are on the rise as extreme heat and pollution combine to create a toxic environment, further burdening healthcare facilities that are already stretched thin.

Rural communities face even greater challenges. Poor sanitation, overcrowded health centres, and limited access to preventive measures make it nearly impossible to manage preventable diseases effectively. The extreme heat intensifies health risks, leading to more cases of dehydration, heat exhaustion, and vector-borne illnesses. Climate change is magnifying existing health disparities, hitting hardest in areas where access to healthcare is already a struggle.

The interconnected crisis of education and health

The impacts of climate change on education and health form a vicious cycle of disruption. Poor health keeps children out of school, while a lack of education leads to poorer health outcomes over time. Malnutrition, worsened by climate-induced food scarcity, adds to this problem. Climate change is projected to increase child stunting by 35 per cent by 2050. This stunting affects cognitive and physical development, hindering children’s academic progress and setting them up for lives of struggle.

The disruption of education, in turn, limits overall health outcomes. In areas prone to floods or extreme heat, health facilities are often damaged, leaving communities without essential services. Repeated disruptions like these prevent families from recovering quickly, reinforcing cycles of poverty and poor health. The need for resilient education and healthcare systems that can withstand these climate shocks has become not just urgent but essential to India’s future stability.

A call for action

Interim measures — shaded cooling in classrooms or rehydration programmes — while offering limited relief, fall short in the face of a crisis of this magnitude. India needs to invest in climate-resilient schools, equipped with adequate ventilation, sustainable cooling systems, and disaster-resistant facilities capable of withstanding increasingly extreme weather.

Healthcare requires a parallel transformation. Initiatives such as the National Programme on Climate Change and Human Health show promise. Yet, they require substantial funding and rapid expansion to serve the communities most at risk. Hospitals and clinics must be climate-ready, staffed by professionals equipped to respond to climate-sensitive illnesses. Failing now will result in health outcomes with severe, long-term consequences.

Enhancing early warning systems for heatwaves and disease outbreaks, improving food and water security, and implementing green spaces in urban areas can protect vulnerable populations from climate-related health risks. Addressing air quality by reducing emissions from fossil fuels will not only mitigate climate change but also improve respiratory health. Promoting climate-sensitive urban planning and sustainable transportation can reduce pollution and provide health co-benefits.

Building a climate-ready future

At COP29, focus on climate resilience has become imperative as climate change has transformed from an environmental issue into a profound human crisis affecting communities worldwide, including India. Protecting education and healthcare systems is not a choice but a necessity to ensure national stability and well-being. The stakes are high in building a resilient society where health, education, and security stand as pillars of progress amidst a shifting climate.

3. Why Sheikh Hasina had to flee Bangladesh — and the lesson from her ouster

August 6, 2024

Prof. Syed Munir Khasru

https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/why-sheikh-hasina-had-to-flee-bangladesh-and-the-lesson-from-her-ouster-9496746/

As friends and neighbours of Bangladesh watched the political drama in the country unfold over the last few weeks, a question on top of everyone’s minds was: Will the longest-serving prime minister of Bangladesh manage this crisis as she has done on many occasions in the past? After coming to power in 2009 through a free, fair, and credible election, she subsequently presided over largely non-participative and controversial polls on three occasions — 2014, 2018, and 2024. She appeared to be near-invincible, her hold on power complete.

In a shocking turn of events, Hasina resigned on Monday, bringing an abrupt end to her 15-year reign. What began as peaceful student demonstrations quickly evolved into a nationwide movement, exposing the deep-seated discontent with Hasina’s increasingly authoritarian rule and the unchecked corruption, nepotism, and high-handedness that overshadowed whatever economic and development successes she flaunted, both at home and abroad.

This unexpected development serves as a stark reminder that economic progress alone cannot sustain a leader’s popularity in the face of eroding democratic values and civil liberties. Hasina’s tenure was marked by noteworthy economic achievements. Under her leadership, Bangladesh transformed from one of the world’s poorest nations into one of the fastest-growing economies in the region, even outpacing its larger neighbour, India. The country’s per capita income tripled in a decade, and the World Bank estimates that over 25 million people were lifted out of poverty in the last 20 years. Hasina’s government undertook ambitious infrastructure projects, such as the $2.9 billion Padma Bridge across the Ganges, using a combination of domestic funds, loans, and development assistance.

However, these economic gains came at a considerable cost. Parliamentary elections in 2014, 2018, and 2024 were marred by low turnout, violence, and boycotts by opposition parties. Hasina’s government increasingly relied on hard power to maintain control, creating a climate of fear and repression. The Digital Security Act, implemented in 2018, became a potent weapon for the government and ruling party activists to silence critics and stifle freedom of expression, particularly online. Press freedom suffered, and civil rights were systematically suppressed as Hasina consolidated her position as the sole centre of power.

While the economy grew, so did the disparity between the haves and have-nots. Bank scams proliferated, and the list of loan defaulters ballooned. Companies like CLC Power, Western Marine Shipyard, and Remex Footwear topped the list of defaulters, with bad loans ranging from 965 crore to 1,649 crore Bangladeshi Taka. The growing economic inequality, coupled with rampant corruption, fuelled public discontent despite the overall economic progress.

The recent student movement that ultimately led to Hasina’s downfall began as a simple demand for quota removal in civil service jobs. What started as peaceful demonstrations at the University of Dhaka quickly spread to other elite institutions and then to the general public. The situation escalated when members of the Awami League’s student wing, Bangladesh Chhatra League, began attacking protesters, transforming a non-political movement into a broader uprising.

Hasina’s response to the protests proved to be her undoing. Her decision to deploy police and paramilitary forces against the students late last month backfired, igniting widespread public anger. The government’s heavy-handed approach, including the imposition of a strict curfew with a “shoot-on-sight” order, only served to galvanise the movement. Hasina’s ill-advised labelling of the demonstrators as “Razakars” — a term associated with collaborators during the 1971 war — further inflamed tensions.

As the protests gained momentum, they attracted support from diverse segments of society, including parents, teachers, and cultural activists. The movement transcended its initial demands and became a collective expression of frustration against 15 years of fear and harassment. The students’ refusal to engage in talks with the Prime Minister until their demands were met reflected the deep-seated mistrust and resentment.

Sheikh Hasina’s fall from grace serves as a cautionary tale for leaders who prioritise economic development at the expense of democratic values and civil liberties. Unlike her predecessors, such as the unpopular army chief H M Ershad who was jailed but did not flee the country, Hasina’s departure marks a significant shift in Bangladesh’s political landscape. Her departure like a tinpot dictator fleeing in a helicopter from a secret location with a raging mob looting her official residence is reminiscent of scenes in movies.

The events in Bangladesh underscore the importance of balancing economic progress with democratic governance as well as transparency and accountability in the absence of which only few benefit at the expense of many. While Hasina’s economic achievements were commendable, her exercise of hard power and disregard for democratic norms ultimately led to her downfall. As Bangladesh moves forward, it faces the challenge of regaining its economic momentum while restoring faith in its democratic institutions and addressing inequalities that have emerged in recent years.

The resignation of Sheikh Hasina serves as a lesson that resonates not only in Bangladesh but across the globe, highlighting the delicate balance between socio-economic progress and democratic values, that matter no less to people for whom these have never been mutually exclusive.

4. Why Bangladesh’s Indo-China balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult

July 12, 2024

Prof. Syed Munir Khasru

https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/bangladesh-indo-china-sheikh-hasina-9448869/ 

Bangladesh’s foreign policy features a careful balancing act between the two regional powerhouse, India and China. Aimed at maximising economic benefits while maintaining strategic interests, this policy has been put to the test in recent years. However, the outcomes of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to China this week, her fifth as PM and the first in five years, suggest that the balancing act may not be yielding the anticipated results, particularly meeting expectations from Beijing.

Economic ties

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Bangladesh-China relations have been primarily driven by economic cooperation, with China being Bangladesh’s largest trading partner for 13 consecutive years. By 2023, Chinese investments in Bangladesh reached $3.2 billion, making it the country’s second-largest source of foreign investment. China’s contribution to infrastructure development is significant — it includes seven railway projects, 12 highways, 21 bridges, and 31 power stations. These have bolstered Bangladesh’s infrastructure development and economic growth. However, the relationship’s evolution suggests a more complex picture, challenging the notion of a well-balanced foreign policy.

Recent initiatives

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This week’s visit has resulted in the signing of 21 instruments, including three renewed MoUs with the relationship elevated from a “strategic partnership” to a “comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership”. While appearing positive on the surface, it raises questions on the practical implications for Bangladesh’s relationship with India, the other regional player.

During the visit, Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced $1 billion in economic assistance as Prime Minister Hasina invited increased Chinese investment in Bangladesh’s special economic zones and the Bangabandhu Industrial Park, allocating an export-processing zone specifically to Chinese investors. PM Hasina also attended a trade and investment summit where 16 MoUs in sectors like textiles, electric vehicles, solar power, and financial technology were signed, with nearly $500 million investments resulting from four agreements.

China’s commitment to continue zero-tariff treatment for 98 per cent of Bangladeshi goods beyond 2026, support for Bangladesh’s development initiatives, and encouraging Chinese investments in various sectors indicate an intensifying economic relationship. These developments, coupled with China’s mediation in the Rohingya refugee issue, highlight the increasing depth and breadth of China-Bangladesh relations, potentially complicating Bangladesh’s efforts to maintain a balanced approach between China and India.

Navigating through South Asia’s complex geopolitical landscape, PM Hasina showed a notable tilt towards India with two visits to New Delhi in rapid succession. Her presence at Prime Minister Modi’s swearing-in ceremony on June 9, followed by a two-day state visit within less than two weeks, underscores growing ties between the neighbours. A flurry of Indian engagements, occurring before Hasina’s planned trip to Beijing, suggested a calculated prioritisation of Bangladesh-India relations.

Regional dynamics and water diplomacy

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Moreover, the Beijing visit occurred against a backdrop of regional tensions over territorial disputes and resources. The Teesta River project has emerged as a critical test of Bangladesh’s ability to manage its strategic positioning with the two Asian giants. India’s recent proposal to finance the Teesta River restoration and management project comes against the backdrop of China’s existing offer of financial and technical support for the same.

This development has brought the competing interests of Beijing and New Delhi into sharp focus, potentially setting the stage for increased regional rivalry.

Bangladesh Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud’s statement that Bangladesh would prioritise considering India’s proposal, given that the Teesta is a river that runs through both Bangladesh and India, underscores the delicate balance that the former has to maintain, weighing geographical proximity and historical ties with India against the economic leverage with China. The project is not just a matter of water resource management, but a litmus test for Bangladesh’s ability to navigate the complex waters of regional geopolitics while safeguarding its national interests and maintaining cooperative relationships with both the giants.

Geopolitics of domestic politics

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The characterisation of India as a “political friend” and China as a “friend for attaining development” encapsulates the nuanced approach Bangladesh has attempted to maintain. This distinction may become increasingly difficult to uphold as geopolitical tensions rise and economic interests intertwine with domestic politics and resulting difficult strategic choices for Bangladesh.

Prior to Bangladesh’s recent elections, China advocated non-interference in Bangladesh’s domestic affairs, a veiled message to the US and its allies to refrain from interfering in Bangladesh’s internal politics. Similarly, India articulated a nuanced position on Bangladesh’s democratic process during the high-level “2+2” foreign and defence ministerial dialogue last September with the US. Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra, during a post-dialogue press briefing, stated, “The election in Bangladesh is their internal matter, and it is for the people of Bangladesh to decide their future.”

In a way, this echoed the Chinese position in support of the incumbent government. But these seemingly supportive declarations from two rival powers have also created a challenge for Bangladesh’s foreign policy at the intersection of competing regional interests.

The tricky road ahead

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Bangladesh’s Indo-China balancing act is increasingly encountering unforeseen challenges. While economic cooperation with China has brought development dividends, it has also raised concerns about debt dependency and strategic vulnerability. The evolving geopolitical landscape in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region has made Bangladesh’s neutral stance increasingly difficult to maintain. The country finds itself navigating complex issues like regional security, water rights, and economic integration, with potential to strain its relationships with the two giants.

As Bangladesh moves forward, it may need to reassess its foreign policy strategy, as striking a perfect balance between India and China may prove increasingly elusive. A nuanced approach that prioritises Bangladesh’s long-term interests while maintaining flexible, issue-based alignments could be more effective. Bangladesh’s dilemma and experience underscore the challenges faced by smaller nations in regions dominated by competing powers. Among others, it will require astute diplomacy, economic diversification, and a clear vision of national interests to navigate the complex waters of regional and global geopolitics in the 21st century. 

5. How the third innings of Modi-Hasina partnership can benefit India and Bangladesh

June 24, 2024

Prof. Syed Munir Khasru

https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/india-bangladesh-relations-modi-hasina-9410281/

The third consecutive innings of the partnership between Indian Prime Minister Modi and Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina marks a pivotal moment in relations between the two South Asian neighbours. With PM Hasina being the first state guest hosted by India on June 21 and 22, the significance of the bilateral ties comes into sharp focus, underscored by the signing of 10 MoUs, including seven new and three renewals. The Modi-Hasina partnership should score more where desired and bowl less in situations that can lead to losses for both.

Win-win situations

Economic ties: The economic relationship between the two countries has grown with bilateral trade reaching $15.9 billion in 2023 spanning across various sectors, including textiles, pharmaceuticals, agriculture and more. Bangladesh’s ability to conduct rupee transactions up to $2 billion with India, eases pressure on her foreign currency reserves, facilitating smoother trade. The new MoUs further enhance cooperation; the Shared Vision for India-Bangladesh Digital Partnership, in particular, is expected to boost collaboration in emerging technologies and digital economies.

Energy, infrastructure and connectivity: Infrastructure projects are enhancing Indo-Bangla connectivity and trade facilitation. The Akhaura-Agartala cross-border rail link, connecting India’s northeast to Bangladesh, and the Khulna-Mongla port rail line are landmark initiatives improving regional transport networks. The newly signed MoU on rail connectivity will further improve regional transport networks. India has been supplying power to Bangladesh, with exports reaching 1,160 MW in 2023. The Maitree super thermal power plant, a JV with its recently added Unit II, showcases collaboration in critical infrastructure. Cooperation is also being explored in renewable energy, particularly solar and wind power. Commencement of hydroelectric 40 MW power export from Nepal to Bangladesh through the Indian grid, marks a significant step in regional energy cooperation. The Shared Vision of India-Bangladesh Green Partnership for a sustainable future will strengthen existing cooperation in renewable energy and environmental sustainability. The MoU on Blue Economy and Maritime Cooperation in the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean Region will catalyse collaboration in maritime resources and ocean-based industries.

Security: Both countries manage their 4,096.70 km long international border through various bilateral mechanisms, including regular talks between border guarding forces and nodal drugs control agencies to address common challenges like terrorism, extremism, and transnational crimes. The newly signed MoU between the Defence Services Staff College (DSSC), India and Defence Services Command and Staff College (DSCSC), Bangladesh for cooperation in military education will further strengthen the security relationship. 

The ongoing collaboration in intelligence sharing and joint counterterrorism is critical for maintaining regional stability and security. Earlier, a $500 million line of credit was extended by India for defence purchases which can not only enhance Bangladesh’s defence capabilities, but also strengthens strategic partnership between the two. 

When not to bowl

Teesta water sharing: This remains a bone of contention with India currently controlling 55 per cent and Bangladesh claiming 50 per cent during the dry season from December-May. Both countries have constructed diversion dams on the river, providing irrigation to approximately 9,20,000 hectares in West Bengal, India, and 7,50,000 hectares in Bangladesh. The resolution of this dispute is critical for agriculture, livelihoods, and environmental sustainability for both. The complexity of the issue is compounded by India’s domestic politics. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has been opposing the water-sharing agreement, arguing that it would adversely affect the northern parts of her state during the dry seasons.

The challenge lies in balancing the needs of West Bengal’s agriculture with Bangladesh’s water requirements, while addressing environmental concerns and setting a good precedent for managing shared water resources in South Asia. After her recent electoral success, Mamata Banerjee should not keep on bowling against the will of Delhi, resulting in frustration in Dhaka whose Prime Minister’s credibility at home is being hurt by this deadlock. China has already submitted a $1 billion proposal for the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project and India is now playing catch up by offering to fund it. This puts PM Hasina in a bind, as rejecting China could strain ties with one of Bangladesh’s top trade and defence partners. The project is vital for people in Bangladesh’s northwest and Dhaka will have to deftly navigate the challenge by balancing its interests amid the Sino-Indian tensions.

Border issues: Border killings remain a sensitive matter, straining bilateral relations. Despite joint patrols, increased communication between border forces, and use of non-lethal weapons, managing illegal cross-border activities while ensuring civilian safety remains a challenge. Ongoing discussions on border demarcation, enclave exchanges, and coordinated management reflect both countries’ commitment to balancing security concerns with positive relations. Recurring border fatalities go against the spirit of bilateral trust, cooperation, and regional stability.

The South Asian trajectory

The Indo-Bangla relationship is entering a new phase with the 10 MoUs reflecting growth and collaboration, covering areas from digital partnership and green initiatives to space technology and maritime cooperation. Regional connectivity initiatives are expected to enhance trade and transform the South Asian economic landscape.

The ties will not only shape the Indo-Bangla bilateral relations but also have the potential to positively impact the broader South Asian region by setting new standards for regional cooperation and collaboration. Initiatives like the BBIN motor vehicles agreement, and the BIMSTEC free trade agreement could further strengthen economic cooperation, regional integration, and stability across the subcontinent. These initiatives are good examples for boosting mutually rewarding neighbourly relationships, paving the way for a more interconnected and prosperous South Asia.

6. From Bangladesh to Pakistan, how Modi 3.0 is being received by India’s neighbours

June 17, 2024

Prof. Syed Munir Khasru

Link: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/narendra-modi-pakistan-bangladesh-india-neighbours-relations-9385931/

The Indian general elections have captured global attention — but perhaps none are more intently watching than its immediate neighbours. As a rising regional economic powerhouse on the cusp of becoming the world’s third-largest economy, India’s political trajectory profoundly impacts South Asia’s stability, security, and prosperity. The high stakes have sparked diverse reactions and perspectives across the neighbourhood. The BJP-led NDA securing a third consecutive term has ignited speculation from Dhaka to Islamabad, from Kathmandu to Colombo. Nations sharing borders and ties with India are closely scrutinising the poll results, seeking to decipher the ramifications of their relationships with the regional powerhouse.

Bangladesh’s perspective

For Dhaka, the BJP’s electoral victory has evoked a mix of optimism and apprehension. The continuity in leadership could facilitate progress in ongoing initiatives that have seen bilateral trade grow threefold from around $5.3 billion in 2012-13 to over $15.9 billion in 2022-23. India is also a major investor in Bangladesh, with investments exceeding $3 billion across sectors like energy, telecommunications and manufacturing. Overcoming territorial issues like the Land Border Agreement of 2015 has been a positive development.

However, certain longstanding issues pose potential challenges. The protracted Teesta water-sharing dispute, which began in 1983, has taken an interesting turn with China being awarded a contract for a comprehensive river management project. India’s subsequent but delayed interest in the project has placed Dhaka in a delicate position.

With its close political relations and deep socio-cultural and historical ties to India, Bangladesh has maintained a cautious stance on the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina called the Act “unnecessary” and Bangladeshi foreign and home ministers cancelled visits to India after it was passed. Further, the BJP’s pledge to implement a Uniform Civil Code (UCC) has raised questions about its potential impact on Bangladeshis, given the shared cultural ties between the nations.

As Bangladesh manages its multifaceted relationship with India, it aims to judiciously balance cooperation while safeguarding its core interests. PM Hasina’s government has adeptly fostered close ties with both BJP and Congress, nurturing unprecedented growth of bilateral relationships. This was underscored by the fact that Bangladesh was the only neighbour to receive an invite to the G20 Leadership Summit last year under the Indian presidency.

What others are thinking

As expected, Pakistan’s reaction has been apprehensive, fearing the BJP’s hardline stance could complicate the Kashmir dispute and diminish prospects for dialogue. However, bilateral trade between India and Pakistan increased to $1.35 billion during April-December 2022, compared to $516.36 million in 2021-22, reflecting improved economic ties.

Nepal harbours concerns over India’s approach to regional cooperation, development assistance, and hydropower projects due to its heavy trade reliance on India worth over $13.59 billion in 2022-23. It faced fuel shortages due to blockades and diplomatic fallout with India during the 2015 crisis. That opened the door for China as India’s historical clout with its small landlocked neighbour started eroding. Things have never been the same.

While Bhutan’s relationship with India is expected to remain largely unaffected, Sri Lanka and Maldives are wary of India’s potential renewed push for regional influence in the strategically vital Indian Ocean region.

Connectivity and security

India’s goal of becoming the world’s third-largest economy by 2027 and a developed economy by 2047 when it celebrates its centenary anniversary hinges on deepening economic engagement with neighbours. Initiatives like the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) and Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Motor Vehicles Agreement could facilitate cross-border movement of goods, services, and people and promote regional connectivity through infrastructure, energy cooperation, and people-to-people ties. The BIMSTEC Master Plan for Transport Connectivity identifies 167 projects worth $50 billion, aimed at enhancing regional integration. Areas of shared interest also include combating climate change, fostering sustainable development, and enhancing educational and cultural exchanges.

While opportunities for collaboration exist, India’s neighbours may face challenges engaging with the new government over concerns regarding domestic policies and historical grievances. The new government’s foreign policy approach will shape the regional security dynamics. Addressing factors behind border incidents and security concerns, smuggling and human trafficking, militarisation and radicalisation is vital for a long-term resolution. India’s economic influence and desire for a stable neighbourhood could drive cooperation in areas like counter-terrorism, maritime security, and combating transnational organised crime. Constructive dialogue and mutual understanding will be crucial in building trust and goodwill in the region.

An opportunity

The election results offer a pivotal opportunity for India to redefine South Asia’s trajectory towards harmony. The newly elected leaders must sensitively address neighbours’ concerns, reciprocated through collaboration. Prioritising people-ties, economic interdependence, and dialogue can pave the way for an integrated, secure future rooted in mutual respect and shared progress.

The path is challenging, but a thriving, harmonious region makes it worthwhile for India in its pursuit of leadership – both regionally and globally. Positive change via constructive engagement and sustained dialogue are the need of the hour in South Asia. This is a tall order though for a region historically more fractured than integrated. 

7. Elections in Bangladesh: Why both India and China are backing Sheikh Hasina

January 07, 2024

Prof. Syed Munir Khasru

Link: https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/bangladesh-elections-india-china-back-sheikh-hasina-9096924/

Fifty-two years after independence, Bangladesh is at an inflection point, both economically and geopolitically. Its increasing economic importance — a $400 billion economy that grew at 7.1% in 2022 — has attracted the interest of major powers who see the country’s growth and stability and partnerships with it as crucial to advancing their own strategic interests in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region.

The Bangladesh national elections of January 7 have as such become a high-stakes arena for several ambitions to play out — from India’s buffer state priorities to China’s Belt & Road vision, from the strategic interests of the United States to Russian infrastructure interests.

Against the backdrop of accusations of authoritarianism and suppression of political rivals, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is seeking a fourth term in office. The previous elections of 2014 and 2018 were marred by allegations of irregularities.

Bangladesh’s relations with India and China

Both India and China have high stakes in the outcome and credibility of the election process, not only because of their robust economic ties with Bangladesh, but also in the light of their wider rivalry in the region. How Dhaka manages the partnership expectations from the two Asian giants is key, and will be watched internationally.

The support from India in Bangladesh’s war of liberation in 1971 contrasts with China’s backing for Pakistan. Despite this history, pragmatism shapes Bangladesh’s current ties with these neighbours.

Bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh exceeded $15 billion in 2021-22. India recognizes Bangladesh as a vital eastern buffer, and provides critical support in ports and power grid access, essential for national growth. Historical ties and geographical proximity foster a symbiotic trade relationship.

On the other hand, Bangladesh’s two-way trade with China exceeded $25 billion in 2022. Bangladesh aligns strategically with China, which is helping transform its landscape through mega projects. Chinese investments in BRI-financed infrastructure projects have surpassed $10 billion.

Nuanced approach followed by Govt in Dhaka

Bangladesh’s nuanced approach towards India and China reflects the prioritizing of mutually beneficial relationships aligning with national interests over zero-sum strategic affairs.

It leverages socio-economic, trade, and cultural ties with India for growth, but has significant military relations with China. Bangladesh is the second largest importer of Chinese arms. India too gave $500 million credit to Bangladesh for defence imports.

Both Asian giants have made substantial investments in Bangladesh, signifying the pivotal role the country plays in regional dynamics. Key agreements in power, transport, and telecom underscore the high stakes in ensuring Bangladesh’s ongoing success. Some concerns have, however, emerged over the burden of Chinese debt and ecological considerations.

Nevertheless, Prime Minister Hasina’s handling of multiple partnerships has been adept. Her strategic autonomy doctrine, which avoids exclusive alliances, offers smaller neighbours a good example for self-empowerment through cooperation and collaboration with major regional powers.

Her consultative approach on global issues, like the Rohingya refugee crisis, too has elevated Dhaka’s standing with the two Asian giants.

The intersection of geopolitics and economics

In the pursuit of achieving developed nation status by 2041, Bangladesh has strategically harnessed economic and technological strengths of both India and China, balancing ties amid evolving dynamics. It has granted port access to both countries, fostering modernization in Mongla port under the banners of the BRI and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Corridor (BCIM). A similar cooperative enhancement for Pyra port was undertaken, but India backed out due to the public-private partnership being granted to a Chinese company.

Bangladesh’s Indo-Pacific outlook draft underscores engagement with regional and global stakeholders for human security, connectivity, and the blue economy, while steering clear of geopolitical tensions.

Bangladesh imports Indian electricity which currently stands at 1,160 MW, while enabling about $450 million of Chinese investments into 1,845 MW domestic power generation as of 2021. The surging demand for electricity has necessitated an expansion of supply, and concurrent energy deals with both countries advance converging industrialization interests.

As a smaller neighbour reconciling the interests of regional giants, Bangladesh has simultaneously advanced national agency and cooperation with countries that are each other’s rivals.

Why the Jan 7 elections matter to India and China

The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has boycotted the elections in its push for neutral oversight, a demand that the Awami League (AL) has rejected.

The BNP remains suspicious of Indian support for the ruling party. The AL on the other hand portrays BNP as anti-India, and raises concerns about potential disruptions in the bilateral relationship due to possible disputes over the credibility of the election results.

Both India and China, deeply invested in Bangladesh’s stability, are understandably wary of political and economic risks post-election. China’s $38 billion BRI initiatives depend on the continuity of the AL regime, and India will have to seek alternative strategies if Prime Minister Hasina were to be unseated.

As Bangladesh confronts a potentially combustible electoral climate with far-reaching consequences, it is no wonder that both India and China have thrown their weight behind the incumbent.

8. Here’s how we can save the planet and keep the economy growing

December 10, 2023

Prof. Syed Munir Khasru

Link: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/how-we-can-save-planet-economy-9062229/

With Prime Minister Narendra Modi announcing the launch of the green credit initiative at COP28, the urgency of equitable and inclusive green energy transitions can hardly be overstated. Under this scheme, green credits will be attributed to pro environmental activities and treated as tradable commodities. These credits can then be sold on domestic market platforms. This comes at a time when unprecedented climate events in the Global South highlight the need to balance ecology with economic growth. Key industries, like steel and energy, need to cut emissions to limit global warming to 1.5°C while creating green jobs, reskilling and enhancing community support.

Role of industry in climate change

Industries account for nearly one-third of global energy consumption and around 23 per cent of direct greenhouse gas emissions. Energy-intensive heavy industries like steel, cement, chemicals, and oil and gas are especially carbon-intensive. For example, the steel industry alone accounts for 11 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions. The Indian steel industry is the second largest in the world and is aiming to achieve net zero emissions by 2070.

To align these emissions with the Paris Agreement and COP goals, industries must significantly enhance energy efficiency, adopt renewable sources like green hydrogen, embrace circular economy practices tailored to Indian conditions and deploy suitable low-carbon technologies across industrial value-chains. In India, schemes like Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) have resulted in 92 million tonnes of emissions reductions while enhancing industrial competitiveness in the first two cycles.

Just transition requires a balancing act

Developing nations often fear that stringent climate policies may undermine competitiveness, industrialisation prospects, and growth. However, well-designed industrial policies can unlock co-benefits like improved resource productivity, energy security, job creation in growing green sectors, and domestic technology development. Just transition aligned with India’s NDC targets and development priorities offer valuable guidance on how industrial policies can be shaped to balance environmental sustainability and equity goals.

It encompasses social inclusion and dialogue, and respect for the rights and needs of workers and communities impacted by decarbonisation. By integrating just transition into industrial policymaking through dialogue with leading businesses, industry bodies can gain public acceptance. India’s national hydrogen mission and state-level renewable policies showcase this approach.

Green industrial policies

India can craft supportive industrial policies to enable equitable transitions in multiple ways. Green technology adoption can be incentivised by offering competitive subsidies, financing schemes and tax benefits for investments in low-carbon equipment and innovations. Simultaneously, stringent performance standards around energy utilisation and emissions thresholds could drive urgent upgrading across industrial clusters.

Dedicated programmes are essential to hand-hold small businesses on their sustainability journeys towards green compliance, water stewardship and clean energy uptake. Reskilling at scale is pivotal to worker security; large public campaigns in tandem with private sector commitments can ease labour market transformations. As high-emission sectors decline, supporting alternative livelihoods for vulnerable communities, including crafts persons via social protection funds, merits priority.

Circular economy approaches to minimise resource use and waste could also unlock economic opportunities in the Global South. Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies while shielding marginalised demographics and justly transitioning energy systems will require dexterous policy reorientation. Accessible climate financing like green bonds, R&D grants and blended capital for industrial assets will fast-track progress. Ultimately, institutional strengthening through specialised coordination agencies, technocrat upskilling and climate mainstreaming will crystallise the vision of an equitable, low carbon and competitive Indian economy.

Wider consultation for inclusive decision-making

The government needs to proactively consult industry leaders, labour unions, local communities, civil society organisations and other stakeholders to incorporate different perspectives into policy decisions on just green transitions that align with “sabka saath, sabka vikas”.

Developing countries especially need differentiated responsibilities, financial support and capacity building assistance from the global community to enable inclusive industrial transitions. Industrialised nations and multilateral institutions have an obligation to provide technology transfer, concessional financing and technical expertise to support capability enhancement in the developing world.

Just transition policies developed through wider participation have the potential to be holistic, equitable and politically acceptable. The Global South must partner with workers, industries and communities, and cooperate internationally to aid climate protection and equitable sustainable development through green industrial policies.

The path ahead for India and the Global South

With supportive industrial policies, emerging economies like India can leapfrog to resource-efficient, low-carbon and circular production systems. India recently launched the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for solar PV manufacturing and green hydrogen to boost domestic capacity and exports, in line with the “Atmanirbhar Bharat” vision. Several states have undertaken initiatives as well, like formulating dedicated climate action plans aligned with growth priorities.

India and other developing countries cannot drive this transition alone. Climate-friendly technologies remain expensive. Policy and implementation capacities need strengthening. Significant public and private investment are essential across infrastructure, innovation, and industrial assets. Industrialised nations and multilateral development banks have a responsibility to support developing countries through technology transfer, concessional finance, and capacity building.

With concerted domestic actions and global solidarity, emerging economies can transform industries to realise their development aspirations while prioritising sustainability. The challenges are considerable, but so are the local and planetary benefits. By putting equity at the heart of industrial policies, a just transition can be charted to more sustainable, resilient and inclusive economies. This can be further strengthened by PM Modi’s green credit scheme, which promotes voluntary activities by corporates and businesses like tree plantation, water conservation, sustainable agriculture, and waste management.