Indian Express
1. Elections in Bangladesh: Why both India and China are backing Sheikh Hasina
January 07, 2024
Prof. Syed Munir Khasru
Fifty-two years after independence, Bangladesh is at an inflection point, both economically and geopolitically. Its increasing economic importance — a $400 billion economy that grew at 7.1% in 2022 — has attracted the interest of major powers who see the country’s growth and stability and partnerships with it as crucial to advancing their own strategic interests in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region.
The Bangladesh national elections of January 7 have as such become a high-stakes arena for several ambitions to play out — from India’s buffer state priorities to China’s Belt & Road vision, from the strategic interests of the United States to Russian infrastructure interests.
Against the backdrop of accusations of authoritarianism and suppression of political rivals, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is seeking a fourth term in office. The previous elections of 2014 and 2018 were marred by allegations of irregularities.
Bangladesh’s relations with India and China
Both India and China have high stakes in the outcome and credibility of the election process, not only because of their robust economic ties with Bangladesh, but also in the light of their wider rivalry in the region. How Dhaka manages the partnership expectations from the two Asian giants is key, and will be watched internationally.
The support from India in Bangladesh’s war of liberation in 1971 contrasts with China’s backing for Pakistan. Despite this history, pragmatism shapes Bangladesh’s current ties with these neighbours.
Bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh exceeded $15 billion in 2021-22. India recognizes Bangladesh as a vital eastern buffer, and provides critical support in ports and power grid access, essential for national growth. Historical ties and geographical proximity foster a symbiotic trade relationship.
On the other hand, Bangladesh’s two-way trade with China exceeded $25 billion in 2022. Bangladesh aligns strategically with China, which is helping transform its landscape through mega projects. Chinese investments in BRI-financed infrastructure projects have surpassed $10 billion.
Nuanced approach followed by Govt in Dhaka
Bangladesh’s nuanced approach towards India and China reflects the prioritizing of mutually beneficial relationships aligning with national interests over zero-sum strategic affairs.
It leverages socio-economic, trade, and cultural ties with India for growth, but has significant military relations with China. Bangladesh is the second largest importer of Chinese arms. India too gave $500 million credit to Bangladesh for defence imports.
Both Asian giants have made substantial investments in Bangladesh, signifying the pivotal role the country plays in regional dynamics. Key agreements in power, transport, and telecom underscore the high stakes in ensuring Bangladesh’s ongoing success. Some concerns have, however, emerged over the burden of Chinese debt and ecological considerations.
Nevertheless, Prime Minister Hasina’s handling of multiple partnerships has been adept. Her strategic autonomy doctrine, which avoids exclusive alliances, offers smaller neighbours a good example for self-empowerment through cooperation and collaboration with major regional powers.
Her consultative approach on global issues, like the Rohingya refugee crisis, too has elevated Dhaka’s standing with the two Asian giants.
The intersection of geopolitics and economics
In the pursuit of achieving developed nation status by 2041, Bangladesh has strategically harnessed economic and technological strengths of both India and China, balancing ties amid evolving dynamics. It has granted port access to both countries, fostering modernization in Mongla port under the banners of the BRI and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Corridor (BCIM). A similar cooperative enhancement for Pyra port was undertaken, but India backed out due to the public-private partnership being granted to a Chinese company.
Bangladesh’s Indo-Pacific outlook draft underscores engagement with regional and global stakeholders for human security, connectivity, and the blue economy, while steering clear of geopolitical tensions.
Bangladesh imports Indian electricity which currently stands at 1,160 MW, while enabling about $450 million of Chinese investments into 1,845 MW domestic power generation as of 2021. The surging demand for electricity has necessitated an expansion of supply, and concurrent energy deals with both countries advance converging industrialization interests.
As a smaller neighbour reconciling the interests of regional giants, Bangladesh has simultaneously advanced national agency and cooperation with countries that are each other’s rivals.
Why the Jan 7 elections matter to India and China
The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has boycotted the elections in its push for neutral oversight, a demand that the Awami League (AL) has rejected.
The BNP remains suspicious of Indian support for the ruling party. The AL on the other hand portrays BNP as anti-India, and raises concerns about potential disruptions in the bilateral relationship due to possible disputes over the credibility of the election results.
Both India and China, deeply invested in Bangladesh’s stability, are understandably wary of political and economic risks post-election. China’s $38 billion BRI initiatives depend on the continuity of the AL regime, and India will have to seek alternative strategies if Prime Minister Hasina were to be unseated.
As Bangladesh confronts a potentially combustible electoral climate with far-reaching consequences, it is no wonder that both India and China have thrown their weight behind the incumbent.
2. Elections in Bangladesh: Why both India and China are backing Sheikh Hasina
December 10, 2023
Prof. Syed Munir Khasru
Link: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/how-we-can-save-planet-economy-9062229/
With Prime Minister Narendra Modi announcing the launch of the green credit initiative at COP28, the urgency of equitable and inclusive green energy transitions can hardly be overstated. Under this scheme, green credits will be attributed to pro environmental activities and treated as tradable commodities. These credits can then be sold on domestic market platforms. This comes at a time when unprecedented climate events in the Global South highlight the need to balance ecology with economic growth. Key industries, like steel and energy, need to cut emissions to limit global warming to 1.5°C while creating green jobs, reskilling and enhancing community support.
Role of industry in climate change
Industries account for nearly one-third of global energy consumption and around 23 per cent of direct greenhouse gas emissions. Energy-intensive heavy industries like steel, cement, chemicals, and oil and gas are especially carbon-intensive. For example, the steel industry alone accounts for 11 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions. The Indian steel industry is the second largest in the world and is aiming to achieve net zero emissions by 2070.
To align these emissions with the Paris Agreement and COP goals, industries must significantly enhance energy efficiency, adopt renewable sources like green hydrogen, embrace circular economy practices tailored to Indian conditions and deploy suitable low-carbon technologies across industrial value-chains. In India, schemes like Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) have resulted in 92 million tonnes of emissions reductions while enhancing industrial competitiveness in the first two cycles.
Just transition requires a balancing act
Developing nations often fear that stringent climate policies may undermine competitiveness, industrialisation prospects, and growth. However, well-designed industrial policies can unlock co-benefits like improved resource productivity, energy security, job creation in growing green sectors, and domestic technology development. Just transition aligned with India’s NDC targets and development priorities offer valuable guidance on how industrial policies can be shaped to balance environmental sustainability and equity goals.
It encompasses social inclusion and dialogue, and respect for the rights and needs of workers and communities impacted by decarbonisation. By integrating just transition into industrial policymaking through dialogue with leading businesses, industry bodies can gain public acceptance. India’s national hydrogen mission and state-level renewable policies showcase this approach.
Green industrial policies
India can craft supportive industrial policies to enable equitable transitions in multiple ways. Green technology adoption can be incentivised by offering competitive subsidies, financing schemes and tax benefits for investments in low-carbon equipment and innovations. Simultaneously, stringent performance standards around energy utilisation and emissions thresholds could drive urgent upgrading across industrial clusters.
Dedicated programmes are essential to hand-hold small businesses on their sustainability journeys towards green compliance, water stewardship and clean energy uptake. Reskilling at scale is pivotal to worker security; large public campaigns in tandem with private sector commitments can ease labour market transformations. As high-emission sectors decline, supporting alternative livelihoods for vulnerable communities, including crafts persons via social protection funds, merits priority.
Circular economy approaches to minimise resource use and waste could also unlock economic opportunities in the Global South. Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies while shielding marginalised demographics and justly transitioning energy systems will require dexterous policy reorientation. Accessible climate financing like green bonds, R&D grants and blended capital for industrial assets will fast-track progress. Ultimately, institutional strengthening through specialised coordination agencies, technocrat upskilling and climate mainstreaming will crystallise the vision of an equitable, low carbon and competitive Indian economy.
Wider consultation for inclusive decision-making
The government needs to proactively consult industry leaders, labour unions, local communities, civil society organisations and other stakeholders to incorporate different perspectives into policy decisions on just green transitions that align with “sabka saath, sabka vikas”.
Developing countries especially need differentiated responsibilities, financial support and capacity building assistance from the global community to enable inclusive industrial transitions. Industrialised nations and multilateral institutions have an obligation to provide technology transfer, concessional financing and technical expertise to support capability enhancement in the developing world.
Just transition policies developed through wider participation have the potential to be holistic, equitable and politically acceptable. The Global South must partner with workers, industries and communities, and cooperate internationally to aid climate protection and equitable sustainable development through green industrial policies.
The path ahead for India and the Global South
With supportive industrial policies, emerging economies like India can leapfrog to resource-efficient, low-carbon and circular production systems. India recently launched the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for solar PV manufacturing and green hydrogen to boost domestic capacity and exports, in line with the “Atmanirbhar Bharat” vision. Several states have undertaken initiatives as well, like formulating dedicated climate action plans aligned with growth priorities.
India and other developing countries cannot drive this transition alone. Climate-friendly technologies remain expensive. Policy and implementation capacities need strengthening. Significant public and private investment are essential across infrastructure, innovation, and industrial assets. Industrialised nations and multilateral development banks have a responsibility to support developing countries through technology transfer, concessional finance, and capacity building.
With concerted domestic actions and global solidarity, emerging economies can transform industries to realise their development aspirations while prioritising sustainability. The challenges are considerable, but so are the local and planetary benefits. By putting equity at the heart of industrial policies, a just transition can be charted to more sustainable, resilient and inclusive economies. This can be further strengthened by PM Modi’s green credit scheme, which promotes voluntary activities by corporates and businesses like tree plantation, water conservation, sustainable agriculture, and waste management.