By-Election Review - 26th March 2026

Here at Interviewer-Line we would like to start a tradition: weekly by-election reviews!!

In these we will look at what seats are up for grabs, how they might vote and what our predictions are, followed up by the actual result. (attached after the result comes in)

In 6 days (26th March 2026) voters will go to the polls in these following councils:

• North Lincolnshire (x2)

• Sevenoaks

• Vale of White Horse

Lets start with...

North Lincolnshire (Conservative Run)

The first ward, Axholme Central, voted both seats Conservative in 2023 and 2019 by large margins (around 70%), to note the only party that contested against the Conservatives was Labour, the by-election has been called due to the death of the incumbent councillor, the seat is being contested by all 5 major parties.

Taking all of this into consideration I predict a Conservative HOLD on the seat (albeit with a heavily reduced majority), with a Reform second place and either Green or Labour third.

The second ward, Brumby, is very similar to Axholme Central but for Labour, voting entirely Labour by a large margin (around 60-70%) in 2023 and 2019, being caused by the death of the incumbent and being contested by all 5 parties, though to note UKIP came second in 2019(!) with 25% of the vote here, which could prove the ward to be well suited for Reform, also to note 4 parties (LAB, CON, GRN, LDM) contested here in 2023.

Taking all of this into consideration I predict either a very small Labour HOLD or a Reform GAIN, leaning to a Reform GAIN, with third place being the Greens.

Sevenoaks (Conservative Run)

The ward up for election is Halstead, Knockholt & Badgers Mount, which is a Conservative defence, it voted Conservative by around 70% in both 2023 and 2019, being a multi member ward both seats have been under the Conservatives, the Lib Dems are the challenger in this ward, being the only other party to contest in 2023.

The by-election was caused by the death of the sitting councillor, and the candidates are Green, Lib Dem, Conservative and Reform.

The best placed party to gain off of the Conservatives is the Liberal Democrats, but their win will depend on the Right Wing vote being split evenly by Reform to allow them to move in through the middle, as the Green Party fielding could hurt the Lib Dem vote in what is to be a likely marginal seat.

Due to this I predict either a Conservative HOLD or Lib Dem GAIN, either being by very few votes, as this is to be a marginal, though I lean closer to a Conservative HOLD.

Vale Of White Horse (Lib Dem Run)

The ward up for election is Stanford, which voted Lib Dem by around 40% in 2023 and Conservative by 50% in 2019, the council is unique as despite 30% of people voting Conservative the Conservatives have no seats on the council, and it is a Lib Dem supermajority, the by-election is a result of the Lib Dem councillor resigning, with no publicly known reason.

All 5 major parties are contesting this ward, though in 2023 only the Lib Dems, Conservatives and Greens contesting, with the Lib Dems winning by 0.9%.

The presence of Reform and the currently insurgent Greens leads to both main parties here (Lib Dems and Conservatives) being pressured by the newer parties.

For this reason I predict either a Lib Dem HOLD or Conservative Gain, though lean closer to Lib Dem HOLD.

TL;DR

• Axholme Central - Conservative HOLD

• Brumby - Reform GAIN from Labour

• Halstead, Knockholt & Badgers Mount - Conservative HOLD

• Stanford - Lib Dem HOLD

3/4 by-elections are predicted to be holds, when the results come in this article will be updated.

Writen by Harry Vilday, Amateur Journalist