Andrea Trucchia

CIMA Research Foundation, Italy 

The development of exhaustive wildfire management strategies is a priority, also in Mediterranean countries where fire-prone conditions are widespread. The lack of prevention and preparedness capacities and the difficulties in rapidly sharing useful information to cope with the direct impacts on exposed people among first responders and Civil Protection Authorities  (CPAs) are important issues. Extreme weather conditions characterize the main wildfire emergencies in southern EU countries,  where the fire propagation is rapid and the authorities struggle to cope with wildfire events. Similar behavior is expected for other countries that fall in similar landscape and climate conditions, such as Chile. 

For these reasons, the use of fast operational tools in emergency response is an urgent requirement for first responders and CPAs. Wildfire models can be useful in predicting the wildfire spread and helping the identification of the best firefighting strategies to be applied.

PROPAGATOR is a cellular automata stochastic model which simulates wildfire spread through empirical laws that guarantee probabilistic outputs. The model requires as inputs the wind speed and direction, fine fuel moisture content, the digital elevation model and the vegetation cover of the area. The underlying grid is made up of 20 meters-square cells.

Recent works have been trying to switch from the use of this simulator in the response phase, to the one in the planning phase. 

We used PROPAGATOR in a relevant case study of Liguria, Italy, to identify the optimal treatment areas to maximize wildfire risk mitigation effects and reduce the costs of treatment. In the identified areas, we used the model to simulate different ignition scenarios in different weather conditions allowed by the regional regulation. The scenarios developed by the model made it possible to differentiate between situations which are under control and others which pose greater risks. We showed how PROPAGATOR provides both quantitative and qualitative information that can be used in planning of  prescribed fires.The possibility of evaluating different scenarios and having quantitative information helps make informed decisions in a more resilient landscape.

[1] Trucchia, A.; D’Andrea, M.; Baghino, F.; Fiorucci, P.; Ferraris, L.; Negro, D.; Gollini, A.; Severino, M. PROPAGATOR: An Operational Cellular-Automata Based Wildfire Simulator. Fire 2020, 3, 26.

[2] Baghino, F.; Trucchia, A.; D’Andrea, M.; Fiorucci, P. PROPAGATOR, a Cellular Automata Model for Fast Wildfire Simulations: Latest Improvements and\\ \hspace{1.5cm}Future Perspectives. Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17, 60. https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017060