MLB Trade Deadline Target Visuals

Using stuff+ data from Thomas Nestico and season stats from baseball reference, I plotted pitchers based on their overall stuff+ grades on the x-axis, and the difference between their ERA and FIP on the y-axis. By doing this I am looking to find pitchers that have strong overall arsenals that are getting worse results than their underlying metrics suggest. In this case, if a pitcher has a higher ERA than FIP, they are more likely to experience some regression back to the mean and see better results in the future. 

The relationship between these two variables is illustrated by pitchers with better FIP than ERA, along with above average stuff grades, in the top right quadrant. These are the guys teams should be looking to quire at the deadline as they could easily see better results just by luck, or with some simple pitch usage tweaks. 

As you can see in the plot, not all pitchers have labels on them. I put some filters on the labels to include only pitchers that had:

1. Stuff+ grade of 105 or higher

2.  A positive difference between ERA and FIP

3.  ERA less than or equal to 5

The goal with these filters is to avoid pitchers who have an inflated ERA that is causing a very large difference in ERA and FIP while keying in on pitchers with above average to elite stuff.

My Favorite Targets

Teams like the Nationals, Twins, Rays, Phillies, and others will be looking to add help especially arms that have good preexisting stuff. Although the Twins already made a trade for a reliever, I think all these teams could continue to look for young arms that have multiple years of control or older arms with more big league experience. 

After analyzing both plots, the first name that really sticks out is Devin Williams. Both plots show him due for positive regression. Despite the rough looking ERA (4.83), he hasn’t allowed a run in his last 5 outings and is in the 82nd percentile for xwOBA with a solid 3.17 FIP. This underlying data paired with his stuff+ grade of 111 overall is a great indicator to clubs he could finish this season strong. Furthermore, Williams has something many other relievers on the market don’t have: high level of previous success. Williams is well known for his time as a high leverage reliever/closer for the Brewers before having a couple of disappointing seasons since.   

Another really interesting name that came up, specifically from the FIP figure, is Nick Pivetta. While not a bullpen piece, Pivetta has been a reliable starter for the Padres in recent years and recently posted career bests in ERA, strikeouts, and innings pitched in 2025. Pivetta only made a few starts this year before going down to injury, but is expected to be back before the end of the year.

Take a look at his underlying numbers dating back to last year: (credit to TJStats)

I have always been a fan of high slot supinators which Pivetta is a classic example of. His fastball has great ride with some cut paired with 3 different glove side pitches (cutter, sweeper, curveball). 

I am interested to see if any organizations would be willing to take on the risk of an older starter coming off an injury. The strikeout and walk rates make him incredibly attractive to any teams looking to bolster the middle of their rotations

Some other reliever names that I found interesting include:

• Justin Sterner (A's)

• Steven Cruz (Royals)

• Caleb Killian (Giants)

• Elvis Alvarado (A's)

• Ryan Walker (Giants)

• Mason Fluharty (Blue Jays)