Working papers
Abstract: This paper investigates a novel "roadblock effect," whereby temporary forced route changes catalyse the adoption of a new transport technology. The Taiping Rebellion in 19th-century China ravaged many cities, but also blocked key inland routes, triggering investments facilitating steamship trade. Combining a trade model featuring modal and route choice, shipping records, and a new method to estimate historical trade costs, I show that the post-rebellion spatial variation in steamship trade was driven by blocked inland routes and the feasibility of sea alternatives. This permanently moved many trade routes to the sea and shifted population towards port cities.
An example of the "roadblock effect"
Abstract: This paper provides novel evidence that social interactions of rural-to-urban migrants enforce traditional gender norms. Using variation of social pressure to conform to rural norms from migrants from the same hometown in the workplace, I find that the concentration of same-origin co-workers substantially increases the likelihood of early marriage for female rural-to-urban migrants in China, but not for male migrants. Consistent with the norm-based explanation for the association between social interactions and early marriage, the effect is more pronounced for migrants from regions with more traditional gender norms. The effect is not driven bymatching or self-selection into social interactions.
Marriage hazard rate of female migrants
Abstract: Do minorities benefit from social networks? In this paper, we study this question using the historical example of China’s first modern bureaucratic organization, the Chinese Maritime Customs Service. Drawing on newly digitized personnel records from 1876-1911, we first show that the Chinese clerks employed by the service were predominantly Cantonese. Using the exogenous transfers of clerks across stations, we then estimate that a non-Cantonese (minority) clerk benefited significantly from meeting at least one colleague from his same province and dialect. Such connections led to faster promotion and a 7.5% salary increase, with even stronger effects when meeting a clerk who was either senior or of high quality.