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Working papers
Abstract: This paper investigates a novel "roadblock effect," whereby temporary forced route changes catalyse the adoption of a new transport technology. The Taiping rebellion in 19th-century China ravaged many cities, but also blocked key inland routes, triggering investments facilitating steamship trade. Combining a trade model featuring modal and route choice, shipping records, and a new method to estimate historical trade costs, I show that the post-rebellion spatial variation in steamship trade was driven by blocked inland routes and the feasibility of sea alternatives. This permanently moved many trade routes to the sea and shifted population towards port cities.
An example of the "roadblock effect"
Abstract: This paper provides novel evidence that social interactions of rural-to-urban migrants enforce traditional norms. Using variation of social pressure to conform to rural norms from migrants from the same hometown in the workplace, we find that the concentration of same-origin co-workers substantially increases the likelihood of early marriage for female rural-to-urban migrants in China, but not for male migrants. Consistent with the norm-based explanation for the association between social interactions and early marriage, the gender-differential effect is larger for migrants from regions with more traditional gender norms. The effect is not driven by matching or self-selection into social interactions.
Marriage hazard rate of female migrants
Work in progress
Bureaucrats' Networks and Career Progression: Evidence from the Chinese Maritime Customs Service with Stephan Maurer
Abstract: This paper studies the effect of social networks on career trajectories within China’s first modern bureaucratic organisation. We digitised personnel records from the Chinese Maritime Customs Service and constructed a unique panel dataset of Chinese customs officers from 1876 to 1911, tracking their entry, inter-station transfers, career progression, exit, and the evolution of their social networks. We find that social networks among minority groups positively impacted career advancement in a workplace primarily composed of Cantonese-origin officers, while no comparable network effect was found among Cantonese-origin officers.