Regular time: 17:10-18:40, Thursday; seminars are given in English.
April 16 (Thr) Dávid Krisztián Nagy (The Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional) 17:10–18:40, Place: IER Conference room
Title: Growth, Trade, and the Uneven Rise of Port Regions
Abstract: Can spatially neutral productivity improvements have spatially non-neutral consequences? Across three major sources of countrywide productivity growth—–increased internet penetration, vaccination campaigns, and improved access to schools—–we document a consistent reallocation of economic activity toward port regions within countries. We rationalize these findings in a spatial model in which productivity growth increases export volumes, which in turn triggers a reduction in import costs through the round-trip effect (Wong, 2022), thus allowing port regions to attract economic activity. This prediction contrasts with standard model with exogenous trade costs in which spatially neutral productivity growth shifts economic activity toward interior regions that are more isolated from global markets. We calibrate our model and simulate it with and without the round-trip effect. Preliminary results suggest that the round-trip effect accounts for 15.6% of relative population growth in port regions and amplifies welfare gains from TFP growth by 24.1% in developing countries.
May 28 (Thr) Sitian Liu (Queen's University) 17:10–18:40, Place: IER Conference room
Title: TBA
Abstract: TBA
June 18 (Thr) Shizuka Inoue (Columbia University) and Betty Wang (University of Hong Kong) 15:30–18:40, Place: IER Conference room
Shizuka Inoue (Columbia University) 15:30–17:00
Title: TBA
Abstract: TBA
Betty Wang (University of Hong Kong) 17:10–18:40
Title: TBA
Abstract: TBA
July 9 (Thr) Junfu Zhang (Clark University) 17:10–18:40, Place: IER Conference room
Title: Population Aging, Tasks, and Regional Growth: A Quantitative Analysis of Japan
Abstract: TBA
February 19 (Thr) Takuma Kamada (University of Osaka) 17:10–18:40, Place: IER Conference room
Title: Regulating Opioids, Creating Poverty: How the OxyContin Reformulation Shapes Neighborhood Disadvantage
Abstract: The opioid crisis has had adverse public health effects, disproportionately affecting the White population in its initial phase, yet our understanding of its effects on neighborhood inequality remains underdeveloped. This study investigates how opioid-related policies transform neighborhood poverty by exploiting the 2010 OxyContin reformulation---a supply-side intervention to reduce prescription opioid abuse. It argues that the reformulation prompts impoverished White opioid users to switch to heroin and relocate toward neighborhoods with heroin availability, leading to the emergence of White high-poverty neighborhoods. Following the reformulation, White high-poverty neighborhoods emerge at higher rates in counties with initially high opioid dispensing, especially in neighborhoods with high housing vacancy, and the increases are largest in tracts with small initial White but large minority populations. The estimated effect is small and statistically indistinguishable from zero for minority high-poverty neighborhoods. Within high-vacancy areas in high-opioid counties, heroin availability increases post-reformulation, and the resulting high-poverty neighborhoods stem from relocation of the poor rather than increases in the overall poor population. The study highlights unintended consequences of supply-side drug policy amid illicit substitutes: the geographic distribution of poverty and neighborhood racial integration.
March 5 (Thr) Jens Wrona (University of Duisburg-Essen) 17:10–18:40, Place: IER Conference room
Title: Optimal Minimum Wages in Spatial Economies
Abstract: We develop a quantitative general-equilibrium framework for the normative evaluation of minimum wages in spatial economies with monopsonistic labour markets. We quantify the model for German micro-regions and successfully over-identify its predictions against the effects of the 2015 German minimum wage observed in data. Simulating the model, we find that at low levels, spatially blind national minimum wages can increase welfare and spatial equity simultaneously. At higher levels, however, welfare gains are traded against employment losses and spatial inequality. Because regional minimum wages are not spatially blind, they can increase employment and welfare in a spatially neutral manner.
March 19 (Thr) Shinnosuke Kikuchi (UC San Diego) 17:10–18:40, Place: IER Conference room
Title: Quantifying the Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Offshoring
April 6 (Mon) Woan Foong Wong (University of Oregon) 17:10–18:40, Place: IER Conference room
Title: Geopolitical Risk and Foreign Dependence in Global Shipping
Abstract: We study countries' dependence on foreign-built and foreign-operated containerships, the vulnerability this dependence creates to shipping and geopolitical disruptions, and the potential for policy to mitigate these risks. We document that global shipbuilding is highly concentrated in China and South Korea, with South Korea specializing in larger vessels and China accounting for a growing share of newer capacity. In contrast, vessel operation is substantially more dispersed: most Chinese-built ships are operated by non-Chinese carriers, highlighting the deep integration of Chinese-built capacity into global shipping networks. Using ship-level registry data matched to the universe of U.S. import shipments, we show that the United States mirrors this global structure: U.S. trade relies overwhelmingly on vessels from East Asia while the operators serving U.S. routes are considerably more diversified. To quantify how such dependence shapes trade costs and vulnerability, we develop a quantitative shipping model with endogenous fleet investment, rental markets, route assembly by operators, and spatial general equilibrium trade. The framework provides a tractable mapping from fleet-specific shocks, whether arising from geopolitical disruptions or policy interventions, to shipping prices, routing patterns, bilateral trade costs, and aggregate welfare. By combining observed exposure to different fleets with shipping cost shares and trade patterns, the model allows us to evaluate how disruptions propagate and how policies that target particular fleets reshape trade outcomes in equilibrium. Applied to recent Section 301-style surcharges, the model implies welfare losses concentrated on highly exposed routes, with additional spillovers operating through fleet substitution and routing adjustment.
Contact: Kentaro Nakajima (nakajima@iir.hit-u.ac.jp)