UIS Center for Teaching Excellence

https://sites.google.com/view/higheredfuture

First: a word about presentation format. For the past fifteen years, we have been "power point-less" at the uis center for online learning, research and service. Rather than using a static, aging format, we prefer to create web pages for our presentations to assure that they are easily accessible, updatable, and always available. I will not be following every link. The intent is that this will serve as a reference meta-site for you on the topic. Please follow along on your own device (or visit at a later date) to delve more deeply into the links and videos that interest you.

To Begin Our Visioning, Look at Where We Are

With a very brief look at the trends in the past twenty years, we see that higher education in the US is suffering. Enrollments are on the decline. Funding generally has not kept up with costs and has been affected by the pandemic. The advent of online learning in the past two dozen years has changed the demographics/geographics and as a result, the expectations of the student base. Most recently, the dramatic increase of mega-university platforms (i.e. Coursera and edX/2U) and the entry of the largest corporations in the world (i.e. Amazon and Google) into the field promises to further change higher education.

Higher Education Twenty Years Ago to Today

• In 2000 the NCES reports there were 15,312, 289 students enrolled in the fall semester

• In 2010 we hit the high water mark of 21,019,638 - then enrollments began to drop every year for the next decade

• In 2020 we recorded an estimated 19,744,000 enrollments

Classes in 2000 were largely face-to-face. Online programs were new - at UIS, we were among the early adopters. UIS launched our first online classes in 1997

Now half of the credit hours at UIS are in online classes - 1/3 nationally

Competition for enrollments was still largely geographically centered

Now large online universities such as SNHU, ASU, U of Phoenix and others compete for our prospective students. As we will see, a host of new competitors have emerged to subscribe massive enrollments.

Average Cost of College & Tuition

Last Updated: August 15, 2021 by Melanie Hanson

Report Highlights. The average cost of college* in the United States is $35,720 per student per year. The cost has tripled in 20 years, with an annual growth rate of 6.8%.

Source: https://educationdata.org/average-cost-of-college

Complex Mix of Federal and State Support

Public colleges and universities educate 70 percent of the nation’s postsecondary students.[14] Ninety-eight percent of state and 71 percent of federal higher education funding flows to these institutions.[15] Revenue from federal and state sources made up 34 percent of total revenue at public colleges and universities in 2017, with other funding coming from tuition and fees, private gifts, self-supporting operations, and other sources.

Illinois is slightly above average among the states in providing support to higher education.

https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2019/10/two-decades-of-change-in-federal-and-state-higher-education-funding

A Second Demographic Cliff Adds to Urgency for Change - Ray Schroeder, Inside Higher Ed

The demographic cliff we have been anticipating since the drop in births with the 2008 recession now has a younger sibling -- the COVID-19 cliff is coming with another deep drop in recent births. Motivated by the need to generate more tuition and housing money, universities have looked to increasing the on-campus undergraduate student base. The prospects of such increases are looking dimmer as the “demographic cliff” anticipated by up to a 15 percent drop in freshman prospects approaches, beginning in 2025 due to the decline in birth rate in the 2008 recession and lasting for years after. Now, we see another major drop in births during 2020, with births down 4 percent over the year, but notably accelerating to 8 percent by December as the impact of COVID took hold earlier in the year, reducing births nine months later. It remains to be seen just how long and how significant the decline will be through this year. This new birth drop echo will begin to reach colleges by 2037.

https://www.insidehighered.com/digital-learning/blogs/online-trending-now/second-demographic-cliff-adds-urgency-change

Coursera

Coursera serves students in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. It offers 20 degrees and 17 MasterTrack certificates, a program that allows online learners to earn credits toward a graduate degree. Industry partners, such as Cisco, Intel, and IBM, offer working professionals certificates and specializations. Employees can also upskill with training opportunities offered through corporate partners such as Airbus, L'Oréal, and PayPal. Consisting of offerings from nearly all of the prestigious AAU universities in the US, select international universities, and collaborations with corporations, Coursera accumulates some 100 million duplicate enrollments in a year.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/breaking-down-coursera/

Could Coursera Become as Prestigious as Harvard? This Expert Thinks So. - Jeffrey R. Young, EdSurge 

As more students turn to these degrees for their credentials, they may come to see these corporate platforms as the provider of learning rather than worry about which college is the one behind the scenes doing the teaching, Levine says. “The world we're heading into is provider agnostic,” he adds. “It doesn't matter if I learned what I learned at Harvard. It doesn't matter if I learned what I learned at Coursera. It doesn't matter if I learned it on Wikipedia. It doesn't matter if I dreamed it last night. What we're talking about is: Have you achieved the outcome?”

https://www-edsurge-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.edsurge.com/amp/news/2021-09-07-could-coursera-become-as-prestigious-as-harvard-this-expert-thinks-so

edX (now merging with 2U)

Also with 100 million duplicated enrollments in the past year, edX has announced it has sold to 2U for $800,000,000. No longer a non-profit, the merging promises to continue most of the prior practices. EdX offers 3,000+ courses and 300+ complete programs from recognizable companies and universities, such as Harvard, MIT, and Berkeley. Most of the courses are free, but you can upgrade to a verified track for a fee of $99-$499. The programs include MicroMasters, XSeries, and professional certificates. They range from $447-$2,475 in price and take several months to a year to complete.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/breaking-down-codecademy/

Glimpses of the Future

Connected Campus Combines the Best of Physical and Remote Learning

The ability for students and faculty to seamlessly engage and have complete access to information regardless of where they are located physically is key to the future of higher education. The “Connected Campus” model is one that will define colleges and universities and differentiate them from their education counterparts in the coming years, according to Vistasp M. Karbhari, former President and current Professor, Departments of Civil Engineering and Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at the University of Texas at Arlington

https://www.fierceeducation.com/accessibility/connected-campus-combines-best-physical-and-remote-learning

Colleges Need to Better Define Their Student Market
by Lisa Honaker & Dr. Joe Sallustio, Fierce Education

The definition of “college student” has morphed over the last several years, and COVID poured gas on that transformation. Think about this: When someone says “student”, does that bring the 18–22-year-old traditional student to mind? Does it bring the new traditional student to the conversation – the 25–34-year-old student demographic that is expected to grow 11% through the next several years3? Big Data has helped any organization, public or private, understand who their customer is and why they choose one brand over the other.

https://www.fierceeducation.com/administration/colleges-need-to-better-define-their-student-market

How remote learning will shape the future of college attendance - Srija Nagireddy, Daily Collegian

There is a palpable feeling of joy on campus as in-person classes return and pre-pandemic normalcy is closer than it’s ever seemed. Though exciting, our expectations for this return ignore one key fact: the undeniable benefits of online learning. One such benefit was increased access to all University of Massachusetts course components, a mark of progress now threatened with the return to in-person learning. The possibility of professors removing such content is worrisome, and steps need to be taken to preserve the progress made. With the exceptions of exams, course staff should not require mandatory in-person attendance for any lecture-based class and instead make all of the recordings available online. Lecture recordings have incredible uses, and the argument that they aren’t sufficient alternatives to in-person instruction does not hold weight.

https://dailycollegian.com/2021/09/how-remote-learning-will-shape-the-future-of-college-attendance/

Learning for a Lifetime - Rovy Branon, Inside Higher Education

At the University of Washington (UW) Continuum College, we are operationally defining the 60YC as the formal higher educational experiences an individual will need over a 60-year (or more) working life. The words are specifically chosen to differentiate the 60YC from other forms of learning that are emerging. For example, when I need to fix a problem with my computer, an anonymous 12-year-old has usually uploaded a video to YouTube with step-by-step instructions. These and other forms of learning are a significant part of the landscape but will not be sufficient to support more substantive life changes. Defining the 60YC has led my team to focus on five key areas for strategic development: credentialing, the “metacurriculum,” learner services, the new academic stack and policy and funding issues.

https://www.insidehighered.com/views/2018/11/16/why-longer-lives-require-relevant-accessible-curricula-throughout-long-careers

The Future of Online Learning Is Flexible and Stackable

Over the past few years, online learning in higher education has gone through a period of disruptive change. Not only did the pandemic trigger a massive shift from in-person classes to online, but it also brought new models of hybrid learning to the forefront. And micro-credentials, programs certifying specific competencies that can stand alone or be applied toward a larger degree, have gained momentum as learners have needed to reskill and compete in an evolving workforce. To explore these trends and more, we spoke with Dr. Betty Vandenbosch, chief content officer at Coursera, about the state of online education, the future of the traditional four-year degree, and what universities should be doing to keep up with alternative credential pathways.

https://campustechnology.com/articles/2021/08/26/podcast-the-future-of-online-learning-is-flexible-and-stackable.aspx

Digital Transformation in Higher Ed

Even before March 2020, a steady decline in undergraduate enrollment was being closely monitored as higher education experienced a shift away from tradition. A significant portion of college students were no longer solely focused on attending classes full time. It was common to find students balancing work, family and school due to the time, money and resource expenditures that come with attending a college or university.

To maintain a competitive edge, institutions worked to improve student outcomes and implement more effective teaching methods. But COVID-19 accelerated the need for post-secondary infrastructural changes that can only be achieved through digital transformation (DX).

https://edtechmagazine.com/higher/article/2021/09/advancing-and-streamlining-dx-higher-ed

How Blockchain Could Affect the College Transcript - AXIOM Higher Ed

The traditional transcript is owned, managed and controlled by the institution. A student or graduate who wants a copy can request one, usually for a small fee. However, new educational models are making this process somewhat antiquated. Blockchain would shift management and control of verified documents from the institution to the individual. Every person would have their own verifiable learning history and credentials that could be accessed from virtually any device. Although these records could not be altered, individuals would have the ability to control exactly what they show to various groups of people. It could be several years before we see widespread adoption of Blockchain at colleges and universities, but individuals are already demanding to take control of their own records. Institutions should familiarize themselves with this technology and learn how it can simplify the sharing of transcripts and other official documents and credentials.

https://www.axiomhighered.com/posts/how-blockchain-could-affect-the-college-transcript

It's Time for Open Educational Resources

Learning before the 21st century was mostly about accessing and retaining theories, facts and figures; now it is mostly about applying theories, facts and figures in creative and critical ways to solve problems and advance society.

Open Educational Resources (OER): More than Reducing Costs

“The college’s leadership of this program reflects our leadership in the OER space and our commitment to promoting diversity, equity, inclusion and antiracism in support of our community and students,” said James Glapa-Grossklag, dean of learning resources at the college and co-lead of the OFAR program. The two-year $900,000 grant will extend the OFAR program over two semesters, enabling more faculty members to plan, strategize, and engage with more students.

https://scvnews.com/coc-receives-grant-to-support-anti-racism-through-open-educational-resources/

What Will Online Learning Look Like in 10 Years? Zoom Has Some Idea - Stephen Noonoo, EdSurge 

This week at Zoom’s annual conference, Zoomtopia, a trio of education-focused Zoom employees (er, Zoomers?) speculated wildly about what hybrid Zoom learning might look like 10 years from now, given the warp speed advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning expected. Linked below are highlights of their grandiose, if sometimes vague, vision for the future of learning on Zoom.

https://www.edsurge.com/news/2021-09-15-what-will-online-learning-look-like-in-10-years-zoom-has-some-ideas

Can colleges compete with companies like Coursera? - Rick Seltzer, Higher Ed Dive

They say colleges will see their control over the market slip while consumers increase their power. New content producers like companies and museums are entering the postsecondary market. Students will often prioritize personalized education and low prices. Measuring learning by time in seats will transition to outcome-based education. Degrees won't necessarily be the dominant form of credential anymore as students turn to "just-in-time education" that quickly teaches them the skills for microcredentials they need for the labor market.

https://www.highereddive.com/news/can-colleges-compete-with-companies-like-coursera/607324/

Is a new Dark Age beckoning for higher education take-up? - Louise Nicol and Alan Preece, University World News

Enabling technology, applicant aggregation and a growing dissatisfaction with educational outcomes are with us today. There is no reason that one generation’s rite of passage won’t become another’s dead-end junction and some warning signs are already showing. A survey by the Bipartisan Policy Center and Association of American Colleges and Universities found that 29% of US adults did not think a college degree was ‘worth it’. A OnePoll survey of UK postgraduates in 2021 found 46% did not think their university education was worth the money and over 30% did not need a degree to do their current job.The Harris Poll in 2020 found 60% of student loan debtors in the US said their degree was not worth the student loan debt they had taken on.

https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20210929170050677

Shifting from crisis response to strategic thinking
David Attis, EAB

As the pandemic extends into the start of another academic year, the daily or weekly crises of life under COVID continue to disrupt core institutional activities of teaching and research while at the same time making it challenging to plan for the long-term. Despite these difficulties, this is a crucial moment to pull up and see the big picture. We need to move beyond temporary, improvised solutions and begin building long-term sustainable strategies. The window of opportunity for more transformational change is already starting to close, however. As the urgency of the crisis begins to dissipate, we risk being overcome by the understandable desire to return to “normal.”

https://eab.com/insights/blogs/strategy/crisis-response-strategic-thinking/

Summing up - Future of Higher Ed
A Dozen Trends and Realities in September 2021

Changes to be evident by 2025 and continuing through 2035:

1. Fewer and fewer students enrolled in baccalaureate programs

2. More and more students enrolled in commercial, massive, at-scale programs (do not underestimate Google, Amazon, Coursera, etc.)

3. Stackable, DIY, and related approaches to credentialing

4. Blockchain transcript dissemination - owned by student not college

5. Increasingly, online OER will be the norm in learning

6. Continuing shakeout of college closures and mergers

7. Increased emphasis on just-in-time learning that closely tracks and anticipates technological and societal changes

8. Fewer professors, more instructors and facilitators

9. Growing AI adaptive learning - competency, not semester calendars

10. Emphasis on the "60-year-curriculum" model for the growth population of non-residential, online students seeking credentials

11. Increasingly subscription-based (rather than tuition) programs

12. Growing emphasis on hyflex, blended and online delivery

13. WILDCARD - Free community college? Now under consideration by Congress, this could change our role and opportunities for completion

So... What ten things might we do to adapt to these changes?
Following Are Solely Ray's Personal Views and Do Not Necessarily Reflect Those of His Employer:

1. Apply data analytics to redefine our target student base, putting resources into recruiting online, adult, professional, continuing education students

2. Differentiate our programs from those at the mega-competitors

3. Launch multiple credential programs - with close advice from HR at relevant corporations, agencies and industries

4. Where it works, stack credentials into degrees, recognizing students will take more time to complete while accumulating credentials

5. Accelerate OER - not just for cost-saving, but for higher retention, equity, and access

6. Be a leader, not a follower - the followers will be merged or closed

7. Embrace the AI future - apply it to serve our needs

8. Keep in closer touch with our alums and affinity groups - build programs to draw them back online

9. Build subscription models and test them out with an eye toward retention and growth

10. Embrace the reality that more and more students will be at a distance - build personal connections, lasting relationships

In Memory of Distinguished Professor Karen Swan

The passing of our beloved friend, colleague, scholar, mentor, leader, and visionary, Dr, Karen Swan, earlier this month has affected all of us who research, study and publish in the field of technology-enhanced learning. To help keep her vision and perspectives alive, a Karen Swan Memorial Fund has been established. https://www.uis.edu/scholarships-funds/uis-karen-swan-memorial-fund

The mission of the fund is to support symposia, faculty research, student research and other activities that will amplify Dr. Swan's research and publications.

Below note one of her latest publications, released September 2021.

Just Published - with chapters by Karen Swan and Ray Schroeder

https://brill.com/view/title/60938

NOTE: I encourage you to examine the Call for Chapters for

New Models of Higher Education: Unbundled, Customized, DIY

Editors:

Aaron Brower, University of Wisconsin Extended Campus, United States

Ryan Specht-Boardman, University of Wisconsin Extended Campus, United States

Editorial board:

Editorial Advisory Board

• Sally Johnstone, President, NCHEMS

• Debra Humphreys, Vice President of Strategic Engagement, Lumina Foundation

• Rovy Branon, Vice Provost, University of Washington Continuum College

• Ray Schroeder, Senior Fellow, UPCEA, & Professor Emeritus, University of Illinois Springfield

• David Schejbal, President, Excelsior College

• Bob Hansen, CEO, UPCEA

• Susan Catron, Dean, Division of Continuing & Professional Education, UC Davis

• Amrit Ahluwalia, Editor-in-Chief, The EvoLLLution

How can you keep up with the daily developments and trends?

Online: Trending Now: Ray's bi-weekly columns in Inside Higher Ed

https://www.insidehighered.com/users/ray-schroeder

Ray's Daily Curated Reading Lists and Social Media. Blogs with daily updates on the field of online / continuing learning in higher education

• UPCEA Professional, Continuing and Online Education Update http://continuingedupdate.blogspot.com/

• Economics and Change in Higher Education http://recessionreality.blogspot.com/

• OER Update Blog https://OERupdate.blogspot.com/

• Linkedin https://www.linkedin.com/in/rayschroeder

• Twitter @rayschroeder https://twitter.com/rayschroeder

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Contact Ray

rschr1@uis.edu ~ rayschroeder@gmail.com - ray@upcea.edu

@rayschroeder

Senior Fellow, Professor Emeritus

University of Illinois Springfield

Senior Fellow, University Professional and Continuing Education Assn.

https://rayschroeder.com

217-206-7531