Publication

• Transportation Infrastructure and Trade, with Li Hongtao, published at Japan and the World Economy

Abstract: This paper offers a variant of the Ricardian model able to structurally interpret the estimate of country-specific variable — transportation infrastructure. Guided by this new theoretical framework, this paper shows that transportation infrastructure enhances international trade more than internal trade. Further quantitative analysis suggests 10% increase in transportation infrastructure induces 3.9% increase in real income and more than 95% of the gains concentrate on the infrastructure improving country. This paper also suggests that transportation infrastructure improvement increases real income mostly through internal trade cost reduction. All the above results suggest that better infrastructure leads to sizable gains providing additional empirical support to policies aiming to improve transportation infrastructure. 

•  Price Discrimination in the Transport Industry and the Gains from Trade, Single Authored, published at Journal of International Trade & Economic Development

Abstract: Shipping firms often charges nonlinear and discriminatory pricing for transportation. This paper shows that this nonlinear and discriminatory pricing in the shipping industry could hamper the welfare gains from trade due to within-industry allocation across heterogeneous firms. I extend a standard heterogeneous firm trade model with variable markups by incorporating monopolistically competitive shipping firms that charge nonlinear and discriminatory pricing against manufacturers. In a standard setting, shipping firms optimally charge a higher transport price to the more productive firms, weakening within-industry reallocation toward productive firms. Elimination of this discriminatory practice could potentially increase the gains from trade.

• (NEW!) Cross-Border E-Commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zones and Urban Entrepreneurial Activity: Causal Evidence from Double-Debiased Machine Learning, with Kai Sun, Xin Zhong, Ding Xiong, published at Journal of Asian Economics

Abstract: Using the establishment of Cross-Border E-Commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zones as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper employs double-debiased machine learning methods to systematically examine the impact of cross-border e-commerce on urban entrepreneurial activity and its mechanisms. The results show that cross-border e-commerce significantly enhances entrepreneurial activity. Mechanism analyses reveal that cross-border e-commerce influences urban entrepreneurial activity through three channels: first, by restructuring supply-chain systems, specifically by promoting supply-chain diversification and expanding supply-chain finance, thereby reducing operational frictions and alleviating liquidity constraints for entrepreneurs; second, it promotes digital financial inclusion, optimizes the institutional environment, and alleviates financing constraints faced by entrepreneurs; third, it forms economic, industrial, and talent agglomeration effects, optimizes the entrepreneurial ecosystem, and significantly improves factor allocation efficiency. Heterogeneity analyses further indicate that policy effects are strongest in manufacturing and wholesale and retail sectors but weaker in upstream enabling industries such as Information Technology services, logistics, finance, and scientific research. Moreover, private enterprises and self-employed businesses respond most positively, and inland cities experience significantly larger gains than coastal cities. These findings highlight the role of cross-border e-commerce as a policy instrument for fostering entrepreneurship, supporting structural transformation, and promoting more balanced regional development.

• (NEW!) 特朗普2.0关税政策与中国供应链安全——基于多情景脱钩模拟的量化研究，with 孙凯，published at 南方经济

摘要：在全球供应链加速重构与地缘政治风险显著上升的背景下，分析贸易关系变动对国家经济福利的影响，并识别中国外部依赖结构和关键产业脆弱环节，是评估供应链安全与政策应对的基础。本研究基于Caliendo and Parro（2015）模型框架，构建了一个包含中间品贸易、部门异质性和投入产出联系的多区域、多部门一般均衡模型，利用OECD 多区域投入产出表，系统地量化评估不同脱钩情景及美国特定产业供应中断对中国经济福利的潜在冲击。研究发现：第一，在双边完全脱钩情景下，欧盟、日韩、美国和东盟对中国的福利影响依次递减，说明贸易伙伴的重要性取决于其在全球价值链中的嵌入位置、技术供给能力和中间品网络作用。第二，中美脱钩对两国均造成显著福利损失，但对第三方国家影响分化，越南、墨西哥和加拿大因贸易条件改善与贸易转移效应获得短期福利增长。第三，若这些第三方国家进一步与中国脱钩，其福利将由正转负，表明广泛“脱钩联盟”缺乏稳固的长期经济基础。第四，美国特定产业断供对中国福利的冲击集中在汽车、化工、计算机、电子和光学产品等关键行业，且贸易弹性敏感性分析表明结论具有较强稳健性。本文为理解脱钩式贸易政策背景下的全球福利重分配、识别中国供应链关键脆弱环节以及制定供应链安全政策提供了量化依据。

• (NEW!) Pilot Free Trade Zone Establishment, Labor Reallocation, and Labor Market Distortion, with Kai Sun, Ding Xiong, Mingsong Sun, accepted at China & World Economy

Abstract: This study examines whether the establishment of Pilot Free Trade Zones (FTZs) reduces urban labor market distortion in China. Treating FTZ implementation as a quasi-natural experiment, we employ a multi-period difference-in-differences framework using panel data of Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2009 to 2019. The results show that FTZ establishment significantly alleviates labor market distortion. Mechanism analysis indicates that this effect operates primarily through labor reallocation. On the one hand, FTZs promote labor spatial reallocation by attracting population inflows and enhancing local economic agglomeration, thereby facilitating the movement of labor toward regions with stronger labor demand and higher productivity. On the other hand, FTZs promote labor intersectoral reallocation by reshaping firm entry and exit patterns across industries, encouraging labor to shift toward sectors with greater job creation potential and stronger links to institutional opening. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the effects of FTZs are more pronounced in coastal regions, areas with stronger informal institutions, large cities, and cities with a higher share of low-skilled labor. This study provides new evidence on the labor market implications of FTZ policies and offers insights into the design of institutional reforms aimed at improving labor factor allocation efficiency.

Working Papers

• Heterogeneous Internal Trade Cost and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models, Single Authored, R&R at Review of International Economics

Previous title: Heterogeneous Internal Trade Cost and Its Implications in Trade 

Abstract: This study offers a novel answer to the classical question: why large economies export more in absolute terms than do small economies. It presents compelling evidence showing that, after adjusting for size, small countries trade more with themselves because of their lower internal trade costs. Using standard gravity estimation with internal trade flows, this study acquires an estimate of the heterogeneous internal trade costs across countries and incorporates them into a standard quantitative trade model. Allowing heterogeneous internal trade costs significantly improves the model's fitness to the R&D data. 

• (NEW!) Nonlinear Pricing in the Transport Industry and the Gains from Trade, Single Authored, updated on 02/09/2026

Abstract: This study shows that nonlinear pricing in the transport industry is a new margin to alter the gains from trade. The pricing scheme provides quantity discounts to productive firms amplifying their productivity advantages, which explains the origins of firm heterogeneity. The theory features the additive trade cost and an endogenous response of the shipping rates to the iceberg trade cost. After validating the core theoretical prediction using the US-China trade friction, this study builds a quantitative general equilibrium framework to quantify the impact from the nonlinear pricing in shipping. This study simulates a situation where the US increases its non-tariff barrier by 1 percent on all Chinese imports. Compared to the standard model, this novel framework dampens welfare by 17 percent for the median country.

•  Trade policy uncertainty and trade in the short run: An empirical investigation about Reciprocal Tariff, with Sun Kai.  Online Appendix

Abstract: This paper examines the short run effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) arising from the U.S. Reciprocal Tariff announcement. Using monthly import data, we find that U.S. firms increased imports from countries facing higher TPU. Contrary to conventional views that TPU suppresses trade, our results highlight a distinct short run importer response consistent with recent inventory management theories. This study offers one of the first empirical assessment of the Reciprocal Tariff’s impact and contributes to understanding how firms react to trade policy uncertainty in the short term.

•  Trade and Attitude: Evidence from the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, with Wu Yanan

Abstract: Using the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a quasi-experiment, this study provides evidence supporting the claim that close trade ties enhance international relations toward the trade partner. This finding offers an affirmative answer to the classical yet enduring inquiry on whether trade ties facilitate peace, an issue characterized by divergent theoretical viewpoints and empirical evidence. Both this pacifying effect and the trade ties decrease alongside the distances imply that the most contentious country would be neither too far nor too close. This study also suggests that close trade relations can contribute to breaking the self-fulfilling vicious cycle between hatred and conflicts, a result that is particularly thought-provoking in a world where deglobalization is on the rise.

Academic Reviewer

Referee work for: 经济学（季刊）(China Economic Quarterly), Economic Modelling, Pacific Economic Review, Journal of The Japanese and International Economies 

Working in Progress

•  Navigating Through the Deglobalization Era?

• Does Institutional Opening Reduce Labor Market Distortion? Evidence from China's Free Trade Zones