Policy output

As Economist at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, one of the leading German research institutes, I contribute to the Institute's economic outlooks and policy publications related to business cycles, external shocks, foreign trade, capital flows, and the current account.

  • I am responsible for the quarterly forecast of German foreign trade flows and prices, as well as for the development and update of global and export-related indicators of real activity and sentiment. I contribute to the Kiel Institute's Economic Outlooks and to the economic outlooks prepared in collaboration with other leading institutes within the Joint Economic Forecast.
  • I coordinated a policy-related research project commissioned by the German Ministry of Finance. In the report, we analyze returns on German foreign assets, FDI in particular, and the association between FDI and current account imbalances (see below).
  • I regularly contribute to policy analyses related to the impact of foreign shocks on German exports and economic performance.

Selected Policy Publications

Upswing stretched to its limits – acceleration only temporary (with M. Ademmer, J. Boysen-Hogrefe, S. Fiedler, D. Groll, N. Jannsen, S. Kooths and S. Mösle). Kiel Institute Economic Outlook Germany, N° 50 (2018 | Q4) [long German version]

Foreign direct investment: Implications for the German current account and spillover effects in receiving economies. (with S. Fiedler, H. Görg, C. Hornok, N. Jannsen, S. Kooths, L. Marchal). Kiel Policy Paper 16. November 2018. [full German version]

Joint Economic Forecast, Fall 2018: Upturn Loses Momentum – World Economic Climate Grows Harsher. Joint Economic Forecast, #2/2018 [full German version]

In German only: Euro appreciation and business cycle dynamics in Germany. Wirtschaftsdienst 97 (9), p. 679-680, September 2017.

Protection against protectionists: how FDI positions may mitigate transatlantic trade conflicts (with S. Kooths). IfW-Box 2017.3, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), March 2017.

In German only: On the effects of the Brexit vote on German exports - an update (with K.-J. Gern and N. Jannsen). IfW-Box 2016.24, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), December 2016.

In German only: The effects of uncertainty in trading partners on German exports (with N. Jannsen). IfW-Box 2016.9, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), September 2016.

Economic slowdown in China: Current assessment and global implications (with K.-J. Gern and P. Hauber). Kiel Policy Brief 94, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), October 2015.