New!

• My article for the Conversation on German and European unification (original in French, English translation).

• The state-contingent debt premium: evidence from French government bonds from the 1950s (with Kris J. Mitchener) [2024], video presentation @DebtCon, see it at the NBER Summer Institute.

• Gubernatorial Elections Decrease State-level Regulatory Actions of Investment Advisers (with Paul Berenberg-Gossler), 2022, Reject and Resubmit Journal of Banking and Finance

Media

• Read my weekly Op-Ed in Eco (PT)

• Op-Ed on US Debt Ceiling in FFMS (PT)

• Op-Ed on ThisGenEU in Le Monde (FR and ENG)

Work in Progress

• Diplomacy in Action: Testing Structural Balance Theory in a Board Game (with Timo Hiller)

• Valuing Silence: The Economic Impact of Noise Pollution on Berlin's Housing Market (with Christian Durach and Tomas Repasky)

• The social benefit of international reserves: evidence from geopolitical neutrality

• Financial Regulatory Actions over the Cycle (with Paul Berenberg-Gossler), 2023

Publications

• State-Contingent Sovereign Bonds with Risk Averse Lenders, 2024, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance

• Effects of Countercyclical Interest Rates: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard (with Kris J. Mitchener), 2023, Journal of International Economics NBER Working Paper29970; CEPR Discussion Paper 17236; CESifo Working Paper 9716; Replication Package.

• State-Contingent Government Debt: a new database, 2022, Credit and Capital Markets

• GDP‑linked bonds in the Portuguese Economy, 2020, Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation, [Access the book here]

• Pegxit Pressure (with Kris J. Mitchener), October 2020, Journal of International Money and Finance [VoxEu] [NBER WP 22844 ] [CEPR DP11640] [CESifo WP 6212], [Published version]

• Task scheduling and performance: Evidence from professional surf tournaments, 2019, Journal of Economic Psychology [Published version]

• Macro and Micro Financial Liberalizations, Savings and Growth, 2018, Journal of Financial Economic Policy [Published version]

• International Reserves and Global Interest Rates, 2017, Journal of International Money and Finance, [WP version] [Online Appendix]

• The Recent Growth of International Reserves in Developing Economies: A Monetary Perspective, 2015, Journal of International Money and Finance, [WP version] [Published version] [Online appendix]

• Decision making and underperformance in competitive environments: evidence from the National Hockey League  (with Gueorgui I. Kolev and Federico Todeschini), 2015, Kyklos, [Published version, ungated] [Online Appendix]

Lightly refereed publications

• Green Fiscal Dominance (with Jerome Creel), 2024, ESCP Impact Papers

• AI and the future of academic writing: Insights from the ESCP Business School Prompt-o-thon workshop in Berlin, 2023, ESCP Impact Papers (with Markus Bick, Jessica Breaugh, Chuanwen Dong, and Carolin Waldner)  

• ThisGenEU (with Jerome Creel), 2022, ESCP Impact Papers [Opinion piece in Le Monde]

• Dívida indexada ao PIB na economia portuguesa, 2020, Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation, [Book, in PT], [Video presentation and debate, in PT]. Related: Opinion piece on debt management in times of pandemic (in PT)