Research
My research fields are empirical macroeconomics, monetary economics, monetary policy, fiscal policy, business cycle analysis, crude oil and food commodity market dynamics.
Link to my RePEc/IDEAS research page that also contains an overview of my research papers, including abstracts and citations.
Link to my google scholar page.
Please send me an e-mail if you want the computer code of one of my papers.
Research articles and (forthcoming) publications
Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News (with Lorenzo Mori), January 2025.
Commodity Prices and Global Cycles: Monetary Policy Matters (with Efrem Castelnuovo and Lorenzo Mori), May 2024.
Heterogeneous Household Responses to Energy Price Shocks (with Joris Wauters), Energy Economics, 2024, Vol. 132, 107421.
The Effectiveness of a Negative Interest Rate Policy (with Marco Onofri and Frank Smets), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2023, Vol. 140, p 16-33.
International food commodity prices and missing (dis)inflation in the euro area, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2022, Vol. 104(1), p 85-100.
Endogenous wage indexation and aggregate shocks (with Julio Carrillo and Joris Wauters), Journal of Macroeconomics, 2022, Vol. 72, June, 103417.
The Adverse Consequences of Global Harvest and Weather Disruptions on Economic Activity (with Jasmien De Winne), Nature Climate Change, 2021, Vol. 11, p 665-672.
An earlier version of this paper has been circulated under the title "Agricultural price shocks and economic activity: a global warning for advanced economies."
The Interplay between Oil and Food Commodity Prices: Has It Changed over Time? (with Sebastian Rüth and Wouter Van der Veken), Journal of International Economics, 2021, Vol. 133, 103540.
The impact of food prices on conflict revisited (with Jasmien De Winne), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2021, Vol. 39(2), p 547-560.
The transmission mechanism of credit support policies in the euro area (with Jef Boeckx and Maite De Sola Perea), European Economic Review, 2020, Vol. 124 (May), p 1-35.
Heterogeneous government spending multipliers in the era surrounding the Great Recession (with Marco Bernardini and Selien De Schryder), The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2020, Vol 102(2), p 304-322.
Wage indexation and the monetary policy regime (with Selien De Schryder and Joris Wauters), Journal of Macroeconomics, 2020, Vol 63(C), p 1-19.
Private debt overhang and the government spending multiplier: Evidence for the United States (with Marco Bernardini), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2018, Vol 33(4), p 485-508.
Is there a debt service channel of monetary transmission? (with Boris Hofmann), BIS Quarterly Review, 2017, December, p 23-37.
Effectiveness and transmission of the ECB's balance sheet policies (with Jef Boeckx and Maarten Dossche), International Journal of Central Banking, 2017, 13(1), p 297-333.
Monetary policy transmission and trade-offs in the United States: old and new (with Boris Hofmann), International Finance, 2024, Vol 27(3), p 253-278.
Macroeconomic effects of disruptions in global food commodity markets: Evidence for the United States (with Jasmien De Winne), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2016, 47(2), p 183-286.
The U.S. dollar exchange rate and the demand for oil (with Selien De Schryder), Energy Journal, 2015, 36(3), p 91-113.
Shocks to bank lending, risk-taking, securitization, and their role for U.S. business cycle fluctuations (with Wolf Wagner), CEPR Discussion Paper No. 10547, 2015.
Effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy at the zero lower bound: a cross-country analysis (with Leonardo Gambacorta and Boris Hofmann), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2014, 46(4), p 615-642.
The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies, Bank- en Financiewezen, 2014, 1, p 62-72.
Paper was originally written for Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management GFI White Paper Series
Time-varying effects of oil supply shocks on the U.S. economy (with Christiane Baumeister), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2013, Vol 5(4), p 1-28, lead article.
Dissecting the Dynamics of the US Trade Balance in an Estimated Equilibrium Model (with Punnoose Jacob), Journal of International Economics, 2013, Vol. 90(2), p 302-315.
The role of time-varying price elasticities in accounting for volatility changes in the crude oil market (with Christiane Baumeister), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2013, Vol. 28(7), p 1087-1109
An older version circulated as "Sources of the volatility puzzle in the crude oil market"
Time variation in U.S. wage dynamics (with Boris Hofmann and Roland Straub), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2012, Vol. 59(8), p 769-783.
Cross-country differences in the effects of oil shocks (with Ine Van Robays), Energy Economics, 2012, Vol. 34(5), p 1532-1547.
Bank lending shocks and the euro area business cycle, revise and resubmit at Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (but I never found the time to do the revisions), 2011.
The relative importance of symmetric and asymmetric shocks: the case of United Kingdom and Euro area, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2011, Vol. 73(1), p 101-118.
Macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area, European Central Bank Working Paper No. 1230, July 2010
The economic consequences of oil shocks: differences across countries and time (with Christiane Baumeister and Ine van Robays), In Fry, Jones and Kent (eds), Inflation in an era of relative price shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia, 2010, p 91-128.
Oil and the Euro area economy (with Ine Van Robays), Economic Policy, 2009, Vol. 24(Oct), p 603-651, lead article.
Technology shocks and robust sign restrictions in a Euro area SVAR (with Roland Straub), International Economic Review, 2009, Vol. 50(3), p 727-750.
European Central Bank Working Paper No. 373 version (with more identified shocks)
Business cycle fluctuations and excess sensitivity of private consumption (with Lorenzo Pozzi), Economica, 2008, Vol. 75, p 514-523.
An older version circulated as "Determinants of consumption smoothing"
Liquidity, inflation and asset prices in a time-varying framework for the Euro area (with Christiane Baumeister and Eveline Durinck), National Bank of Belgium Working Paper No. 142, October 2008
Putting the New Keynesian model to a test (with Roland Straub), International Monetary Fund Working Paper 06/135, May 2006
Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or source of shocks? New empirical evidence (with Katie Farrant), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2006, Vol. 38, p 939-962.
The industry effects of monetary policy in the Euro area (with Frank Smets), Economic Journal, 2005, Vol. 115(April), p 319-342.
What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2005, Vol. 20, p 185-207.
An older CEPR Working Paper No. 4087 version with more detailed discussion of the methodology
A summary of the paper published in Eijffinger and Koedijk (eds), The Euro area as an economic entity, CEPR, 2004, p 1-10.
The transmission of monetary policy in the Euro area: Are the effects different across countries?, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2004, Vol. 66(3), p 285-308.
Investment under monetary uncertainty: a panel data investigation (with Andrew Hughes Hallett and Laura Piscitelli), Empirica, 2004, Vol. 31(2), p 137-162.
The monetary transmission mechanism in the Euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis (with Frank Smets), In Angeloni, Kashyap and Mojon (eds), Monetary policy transmission in the Euro area, Cambridge University Press, 2003, chapter 2, p 36-55.
A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the Euro area (with Benoit Mojon), In Angeloni, Kashyap and Mojon (eds), Monetary policy transmission in the Euro area, Cambridge University Press, 2003, chapter 3, p 56-74.
Are the effects of monetary policy in the Euro area greater in recessions than in booms? (with Frank Smets), In Mahadeva and Sinclair (eds), Monetary transmission in diverse economies, Cambridge University Press, 2002, p 28-48.
Monetary policy and long term interest rates in Germany, Economics Letters, 2002, Vol 77(2), October, p 271-278.
The Taylor rule: A useful monetary policy benchmark for the Euro area? (with Frank Smets), International Finance, 1999, Vol. 2(1), p 85-116.
An older version "Uncertainty and the Taylor rule in a simple model of the Euro area economy", which also includes estimation results for monetary policy reaction functions