Geopolitics

At the level of international relations, geopolitics is a method of studying foreign policy to understand, explain, and predict international political behavior through geographical variables. These include area studies, climate, topography, demography, natural resources, and applied science of the region being evaluated.[3]

Geopolitics focuses on political power linked to geographic space, in particular, territorial waters and land territory in correlation with diplomatic history. Topics of geopolitics include relations between the interests of international political actors focused within an area, a space, or a geographical element, relations which create a geopolitical system.[4] Critical geopolitics deconstructs classical geopolitical theories, by showing their political/ideological functions for great powers.[5] There are some works that discuss the geopolitics of renewable energy.[6][7]

Geopolitics

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Mackinder posited that the industrial centers of the Periphery were necessarily located in widely separated locations. The World Island could send its navy to destroy each one of them in turn, and could locate its own industries in a region further inland than the Periphery (so they would have a longer struggle reaching them, and would face a well-stocked industrial bastion). Mackinder called this region the Heartland. It essentially comprised Central and Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Western Russia, and Mitteleuropa.[26] The Heartland contained the grain reserves of Ukraine, and many other natural resources. Mackinder's notion of geopolitics was summed up when he said:

Haushofer's influence within the Nazi Party has been challenged, given that Haushofer failed to incorporate the Nazis' racial ideology into his work.[32] Popular views of the role of geopolitics in the Nazi Third Reich suggest a fundamental significance on the part of the geo-politicians in the ideological orientation of the Nazi state. Bassin (1987) reveals that these popular views are in important ways misleading and incorrect.

The resultant negative association, particularly in U.S. academic circles, between classical geopolitics and Nazi or imperialist ideology, is based on loose justifications. This has been observed in particular by critics of contemporary academic geography, and proponents of a "neo"-classical geopolitics in particular. These include Haverluk et al., who argue that the stigmatization of geopolitics in academia is unhelpful as geopolitics as a field of positivist inquiry maintains potential in researching and resolving topical, often politicized issues such as conflict resolution and prevention, and mitigating climate change.[34]

Negative associations with the term "geopolitics" and its practical application stemming from its association with World War II and pre-World War II German scholars and students of geopolitics are largely specific to the field of academic geography, and especially sub-disciplines of human geography such as political geography. However, this negative association is not as strong in disciplines such as history or political science, which make use of geopolitical concepts. Classical geopolitics forms an important element of analysis for military history as well as for sub-disciplines of political science such as international relations and security studies. This difference in disciplinary perspectives is addressed by Bert Chapman in Geopolitics: A Guide To the Issues, in which Chapman makes note that academic and professional International Relations journals are more amenable to the study and analysis of Geopolitics, and in particular Classical geopolitics, than contemporary academic journals in the field of political geography.[35]

In disciplines outside geography, geopolitics is not negatively viewed (as it often is among academic geographers such as Carolyn Gallaher or Klaus Dodds) as a tool of imperialism or associated with Nazism, but rather viewed as a valid and consistent manner of assessing major international geopolitical circumstances and events, not necessarily related to armed conflict or military operations.

In The Spirit of the Laws, Montesquieu outlined the view that man and societies are influenced by climate. He believed that hotter climates create hot-tempered people and colder climates aloof people, whereas the mild climate of France is ideal for political systems. Considered one of the founders of French geopolitics, lise Reclus, is the author of a book considered a reference in modern geography (Nouvelle Gographie universelle). Alike Ratzel, he considers geography through a global vision. However, in complete opposition to Ratzel's vision, Reclus considers geography not to be unchanging; it is supposed to evolve commensurately to the development of human society. His marginal political views resulted in his rejection by academia.

According to Li Lingqun, a major feature of the People's Republic of China's geopolitics is attempting to change the laws of the sea to advance claims in the South China Sea.[44] Another geopolitical issue is China's claims over Taiwan, amounting to a geopolitical rivalry between the two independent states.[45]

Various analysts state that China created the Belt and Road Initiative as a geostrategic effort to take a larger role in global affairs, and undermine what the Communist Party perceives as a hegemony of liberalism.[46][47][48] It has also been argued that China co-founded the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and New Development Bank to compete with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in development finance.[49][50] According to Bobo Lo, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has been advertised as a "political organization of a new type" claimed to transcend geopolitics.[51] Political scientist Pak Nung Wong says that a major form of geopolitics between the US and China includes cybersecurity competition, policy regulations regarding technology standards and social media platforms, and traditional and non-traditional forms of espionage.[52]

Building on its momentum in 2023, the geopolitics of AI will become more important in 2024. Governments will race to regulate AI to reduce the potential of sociopolitical risks. But policymakers will simultaneously try to foster domestic AI innovation to compete geopolitically. As a result, AI will be a central dynamic in US-China relations. In 2024, the dual races to innovate and regulate AI will accelerate the shift toward distinct geopolitical blocs.

In this era of profound change in the international system, the importance of geopolitics to corporate strategy is at its highest level in a generation. Successfully weaving geopolitical dynamics into corporate strategy will increasingly be a competitive advantage.

With the release of advanced forms of AI to the public early in 2023, public policy debates have rightly focused on such developments as the exacerbation of inequality, the loss of jobs, and the potential threat of human extinction if AI continues to evolve without effective guardrails. There has been less discussion about how AI might affect geopolitics and which actors might take the lead in the future development of AI or other advanced AI algorithms.

Although technology has often influenced geopolitics, the prospect of AI means that the technology itself could become a geopolitical actor. AI could have motives and objectives that differ considerably from those of governments and private companies. Humans' inability to comprehend how AI "thinks" and our limited understanding of the second- and third-order effects of our commands or requests of AI are also very troubling. Humans have enough trouble interacting with one another. It remains to be seen how we will manage our relationships with one or more AIs.

We believe that this is the time to take stock of where we are, and to identify some of the inflection points that will shape our AI future. This paper takes up the key changes in the generative AI field over the last year in the domains of geopolitics, technology, and markets. We discuss what trends are emerging, what debates remain unsettled, and how the generative world order is being defined.

The chip wars have significance not only for geopolitics, but also for global markets. They have reshaped the movement of goods and intellectual capital, and major chipmakers like Nvidia have attempted to operate within the new paradigm by releasing versions of their products targeted for Chinese markets that are as advanced as possible, given the restrictions. The results have been clear: US semiconductor exports to China dropped by 51%, from $6.4 billion to $3.1 billion, in the first eight months of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022.

For the foreseeable future, we expect geopolitics to increasingly driving economic decision-making in Washington and Beijing, and in capitals around the world. The US, China, and other countries are using new and old tools to advance political objectives through economic means. The table below outlines a few of the most prominent techno-economic tools shaping technology competition.

The rate of AI progress is occurring at such a speed and scale that it is impossible for any one person, company, or country to predict the future of this technology, or how it will change the way we live. But we can see how AI is already reshaping technology, commerce, and geopolitics. In this inter-AI period, we have the opportunity to direct the course of the AI-enabled future. We will witness several key milestones that will give a picture of the emerging generative world order.

In the twenty-first century, land deals in the Global South have become increasingly prevalent and controversial. Transnational access to arable land in impoverished "land-rich" countries in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia highlights the link between the shifting geopolitics of economic development and problems of food security, climate change, and regional and international trade. Drawing on ethnographic and archival research, Upland Geopolitics uses the case of Chinese agribusiness investment in northern Laos to study the unbalanced geography of the new global land rush. Connecting the current rubber plantation boom to a longer trajectory of foreign intervention in the region, Upland Geopolitics reveals how legacies of Cold War conflict continue to pave the way for transnational enclosure in a socially uneven landscape. 006ab0faaa