Gayeon Hong

• The Clock of Beliefs: Updating and the Dynamics of Expectations [PDF]

Agents disagree not only about economic outcomes, but about how they revise their perceived laws of motion when new information arrives. This heterogeneity updating is systematically related to subsequent forecasting performance and monetary policy transmission.⌛🧭

• The Sound of Silence: Policy Signals and Risk Premia [PDF][Slide] 

Using an AI semantic filter on the sequential structure of FOMC statements, this paper reveals that the “absence” of established language—“silence”—acts as a distinctive policy signal, repricing duration risk and driving term premia at the long end of the yield curve. 🕵👻

Presentation: HK FinTech and AI in Finance, City University of Hong Kong, Poster Session, 2026; (Scheduled) ABFER-JFDS Conference on AI for Finance, 2026; AI for Economics and Finance, Poster Session, The University of Turin, 2026; AI in Finance Conference, Montréal (Online), 2026.

• Redrawing the Future: Endogenous Representation and Macroeconomic Expectations​  [PDF]

I identify a quantitatively large extensive margin in expectations where agents dynamically open and close outcome states, and develop a coverage-cost theory that governs these representation reconfigurations. 🎨🖼️

• Heterogeneous Beliefs of Intermediaries and Term Premia [PDF][Slide] 

Dealers’ belief disagreement flips the yield-curve response across QE and QT by interacting with tightening funding constraints that shape dealers’ risk-bearing capacity. 

Presentation: Asian Finance Association Annual Conference, 2025; Southern Economic Association Annual Meeting, 2025; Seoul National University, 2024.

Awarded: Best Third-Year Paper Award, Seoul National University, 2025.