Slim chance for those favourites?
It has been a busy week in the world of football with the conclusions of many major tournaments across Europe, including the jewel in the crown, the UEFA Champions League final between Bayern Munich and Chelsea.
Having previewed a lot of the recent important cup matches we decided to have a retrospective look at the pre-match expectations and compare them with what actually happened.
The table below summarises five of the matches we previewed and shows that the probabilities we calculated using historical figures.
As an instance, in the Swiss Cup final, we computed that FC Basel had a 52.80% likelihood of winning in regular period, but the match ended 1-1 after 90 minutes. In contrast, our spreadsheets showed the draw had only a 24.70 percent likelihood.
The single match which ended as anticipated was that the Scottish Cup final, where Hearts defeated poor Hibernian, 5-1. Prediksi Bola Akurat
To compute the overall probability of a certain blend of results, simply multiply the respective probabilities together. Thus, the combined probability that all five favourites won was:
52.8% x 45.9 percent x 64.9 percent x 54.7 percent x 43.7% = 3.76%
Effectively speaking, the 3.76% joint probability of all five favourites winning means that this would statistically happen only once in each 25 seasons. This is a relatively bleak insight for those of you who enjoy accumulator or parlay stakes!
Taking this train of thought further, if Basel, Hearts, Bayern and Sporting all won, but the Coppa Italia finished in a draw, then the probability calculation would be as follows:
52.8 percent x 45.9 percent x 64.9 percent x 54.7 percent x 34.1% = 2.93 percent
The odds generally that four favourites won along with the fifth game finished in a draw or a victory for the underdog, was 17.78%.
Calculating this is rather straightforward and is only a question of multiplying the probabilities for each and every permutation of the event and then adding together the outcomes.
We can now say that in five cup garnish with similar probabilities, the likelihood that either all of the favorites will win, or at least 4, equates to 21.54% which means this will happen on average approximately every five years:
17.78 percent (only 4 favourites win) plus 3.76 percent (all favorites triumph) = 21.54% (around one in five)
We mention accumulator bets, which maybe do not look so appealing as soon as you know the genuine statistical chances of success with, in these examples, a five-fold.
Instead, the probability in our five cup finals generally for just one favorite winning, two games end in draws, and two victories for the underdog has been 4.86%. This combination of events was so more mathematically likely than the 3.76% chance that each one of the favorites would triumph. Boladiator.com
Read more about this topic in further detail in our article: Combinatorics and Probability Theory in Football Betting.
We hope you enjoyed this report and also hope it's added something to your knowledge base. Please always gamble responsibly and never over you can afford to lose.