Email:  federicopuglisi@u.northwestern.edu

Address:  Northwestern University, Department of Economics, 2211 Campus Drive, 3rd Floor, Evanston, IL 60208.

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Federico Puglisi


Welcome to my website! I am currently a Fellow at the Financial Stability Directorate of the Bank of Italy. My research focuses on Macroeconomics with a particular interest in Monetary Policy, Financial Intermediation and Applied Time-Series

In my job market paper, I investigate the state-dependence in the responses of loan interest rates and economic activity to monetary policy.

I received my PhD in Economics from Northwestern University in June 2023. Before, I worked as a research assistant in the Research Department of the European Central Bank.


Link to CV

Job Market Paper: 

"State-Dependent Pass-Through from Monetary Policy to Lending Rates" [Slides] [Github]

Abstract: The efficacy of monetary policy depends crucially on the extent to which bank lending rates respond to changes in policy rates. This paper documents that this response is state-dependent. I show empirically that the key state variable is the skewness of the cross-sectional distribution of lending rates across banks prior to the change in the policy rate. High initial skewness leads to a stronger response of (i) bank lending rates and (ii) economic activity to monetary policy. I develop a model of imperfect competition among banks that accounts for this empirical finding. A key feature of the model is that borrowers face search and switching frictions. A higher degree of dispersion among lending rates increases borrowers' expected returns to search. In these circumstances, strategic behaviour by banks leads to higher responsiveness of lending rates to policy rate changes. Through this channel, the model can also reconcile my finding that conventional monetary policy has stronger effects on economic activity the more skewness there is in bank lending rates.


Publications & Working Papers : 

"Expectation-Driven Cycles and the Changing Dynamics of Unemployment" with Antonello D'Agostino, Caterina Mendicino

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, February 2022


"Israel’s Fiscal Prospects in the Post-COVID-19 Era" [Policy Note] with Martin Eichenbaum

Bank of Israel: Monetary Policy in a period of price stability, May 2022


"Policy Rate Shocks Beyond Zero"  [Draft available upon request] with Caterina Mendicino, Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez and Dominik Supera

Presented at SED 2022 Annual Meeting SCE 2022 Annual Meeting, SAET 2022 Annual Conference, 24th Central Bank Macroeconomic Modelling Workshop, 11th RCEA Money-Macro-Finance conference, Warsaw International Economic Meeting, RCEA 3rd Warsaw Money-Macro-Finance Conference.


Work in Progress: 

"Central Bank Liquidity Shocks" with Martina Jasova, Caterina Mendicino,  and Dominik Supera


"Can Consumer Confidence Provide Independent Information on Consumer Spending? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis"  with Antonello D'Agostino, Caterina Mendicino


"Are Recursive Neural Networks Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?" with Carl Hallman and Emre Enes Yavuz


"Digital Platform Acquisitions and Growth" with Jane Olmstead-Rumsey and Liangjie Wu.

Presented at 2nd Macro-Monetary Workshop Bank of Italy - EIEF 


"The Contribution of Cooperative Credit Banks to financial stability over the business cycle" (slides)

Presented at EURICSE 13th International Conference 2022, The future of Financial Mutuals 2023.


"International Cyclical Patterns and Synchronization" with Jingxiong Hu