Will India's population growth affect China's international status in the coming decades?

Does India's population surpass China's, does it mean that India's economy will definitely surpass China's in the future? I don't think so.

         Undoubtedly, one of the reasons why China’s economy and comprehensive national strength have been able to create world miracles in the short period of 40 years after the reform and opening up is China’s huge population resources, population consumption scale, and population consumption potential. According to a comprehensive report by the Global Times, the economies of Japan, Russia and other countries have stagnated in the past 10 to 20 years. One of the reasons is that their populations are too small. But today's China and India have the same population, but according to the data, there is still a huge gap between India's economy and China's economy. China's economic aggregate is five times that of India, and China's core technology independent brands are far ahead of India. . So I don't think population is an important factor in a country's economy.

        The catching up of India's population is conducive to India's economy catching up with China, but it does not mean that India's economy will definitely surpass China. However, India's population exceeds that of China, and India's labor force advantage is getting bigger and bigger, and there are more and more young and middle-aged labor force, which will definitely benefit India's economic development. But India did not start on a hopeful note, grappling with worsening North-South divisions, uncontrolled urbanization, resource scarcity, an aging population in some regions and rising youth unemployment in others. In fact, population is only one factor in economic development. As long as the economy develops to a certain stage, economic development basically does not need to rely on the advantages of demographic dividends and cheap labor. For example, the economic development of developed countries in Europe and the United States does not require the advantages of demographic dividends and cheap labor.

        In terms of grain, although India has 150 million hectares of land, it can only harvest 310 million tons of grain every year. In contrast, with 123 million hectares of land, China can harvest 660 million tons of grain, which is why India once ranked 102nd in the global hunger index. It is not difficult to understand why Indians are mainly vegetarians. It is entirely to save food. After all, raising cattle and chickens requires a lot of food as feed. Secondly, although India is one of the countries with the most abundant fresh water resources in the world, But every year, 200,000 Indians die directly because of lack of water to drink. The biggest reason is that India did not build water conservancy projects, but chose to dig wells to get water, which caused India to face a serious shortage of fresh water resources.

        From the perspective of geographical factors, India’s area is only one-third of that of my country, but the plantable plains are almost as large as my country’s. It is because of the huge population base that India’s natural advantages have lost more than half, and India has not yet entered In modern agriculture, with limited resources and no large-scale planting, agriculture cannot support a large population. This is also a major drawback of the large population.

        Huang Yinghong, a Chinese female educator, believes that India’s large population is not equivalent to a demographic dividend. He said: “In order for the population to turn into a dividend, there must be a good education, there must be an industry, and there must be enough social respect and freedom. He further stated that if India is to accelerate its development, it needs to do the above work well in order to fully tap its potential. What is certain is that as long as the economy develops to a certain stage, economic development will mainly rely on talents, technological innovation and technological progress. The Chinese economy can rely on technological innovation and technological progress. Even though India's population exceeds China's, it is difficult for India's economy to surpass China's. For example, India's more than 1.3 billion people have not brought explosive demographic dividends. On the contrary, India's excessive population growth has affected India's sustainable development, causing too many disadvantages due to its large population.  

At present, China has a population of more than 1.4 billion, which has exceeded the population size of 1.25 billion. But it is not that the larger the population, the better. It is best to maintain a population of around 1.25 billion. Because the population is not only a resource of productivity and consumption power, but also an overpopulation, and the inconsistency between the population size and the social development structure will also become a social burden.

         India's population size and its social development structure are obviously not in harmony. No matter from the perspective of comprehensive national strength, economic strength, per capita GDP, per capita income, and per capita resources, India's population size and its social development structure are clearly out of balance. Especially under such circumstances, India's population size is still growing rapidly. This will not only not become India's competitive advantage, but will also become India's burden and competitive disadvantage.

         Therefore, an overpopulation will not necessarily shake China's international status, but will put itself in a difficult situation. If China can maintain its population size at around 1.25 billion, it is very likely that the situation will undergo a major change that has not been seen in a century. Today, in the competition of the world's new hegemon power, it finally wins.