出刊年月/Date of Publishing

1998.12

所屬卷期/Vol. & No.   第28卷第4期 Vol. 28, No. 4

類型/Type                 研究論文 Research Article

篇名/Title
英國浮動選民與第三黨投票取向之研究
The Floating Voters and Third-Party Voting in Britain

作者/Author
黃偉峰 Wei-Feng Huang

頁碼/Pagination
pp. 1-61

摘要
英國第三黨的崛起一直受到學界的高度關注。其中政黨解組論者以為政黨認同式微，浮動選民增加，跨黨投票者眾，導致第三黨存有相當大的當選空間。本文運用「1979-1992年英國選舉硏究」之訪問調查資料檢證上述之假設。本文發現英國浮動選民並不比一般選民更易於投票支持第三黨。然而跨黨投票者的確較易於投票支持第三黨。據此本文修正了政黨解組論者對第三黨崛起之解釋。

Abstract
According to the party dealignment thesis, party identification has become weaker in Britain since the end of the 1960s. Accompanying this trend have been a growing number of voters who profess no party affiliation, and at the same time have become more volatile. These floating and volatile voters have often been assumed to represent a big hope for the advance of third parties. However, this assumption has not been subjected to rigorous empirical verification. Using the 1979-92 BES data, the author finds that independent voters are not more likely than average party identifiers to vote for third parties in Britain. However the effect of volatile voters on third-party voting is always strong and significant, even controlling for other potential influences. This implies that a growing pool of volatile voters may help to consolidate the existence of third parties in Britain.

關鍵字/Key Word
政黨解組論、浮動選民、選民輕浮性丶空間投票理論、多元對數或敗比模型
party dealignment, floating voters, overall volatility, spatial voting, multivariate logistic regressions

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DOI
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學門分類/Subject
政治學 Political Science