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The exact shape of the auroral ovals is controlled by the instantaneous position of Earth with respect to the Sun, the physical conditions of the solar wind and the configuration of the geomagnetic field. Over longer timescales, e.g. longer than the 11 years of a solar cycle, the auroral ovals can be approximated by the auroral zones, which, for low-to-moderate solar activity, are traditionally represented by quasi-circular belts centered around the geomagnetic poles and located between 65 and 70\(^\circ \) of geomagnetic latitude5,6,7. Using this definition, the auroral zone location and shape do not depend on instantaneous solar wind conditions and their temporal evolution can be solely linked to the changes in the geomagnetic field. This allows us to consider space climate, a moving average of space weather conditions over the decadal timescales dictated by the evolution of the geomagnetic field of internal origin. Previous studies estimated the past evolution of these low-solar-activity auroral zones2,8,9,10 or of their poleward edges alone (encircling the so-called polar caps)11 and found significantly different shapes and temporal changes for the Northern and Southern zones. In particular, since the beginning of the 20th century, the evolution of the Northern auroral zone can be essentially described by a drift from North America towards Siberia2,8,10,11, in qualitative agreement with the recent rapid motions of the North Magnetic pole12,13,14,15,16,17. At the same time, the Southern auroral zone evolution is better described by an elongation towards the equator in the Atlantic Hemisphere8,10,11. The auroral zones and polar cap surface areas have been decreasing since 194011 for the Northern Hemisphere and increasing since at least the beginning of the 20th century for the Southern Hemisphere. This asymmetric behaviour is at odds with expected scaling laws valid under the assumption of a dipole-dominated main field18,19,20, according to which both polar cap areas should increase as the dipole intensity decayed21,22,23.11 suggested that the shrinking of the northern auroral zone is due to a local strengthening of the high-latitude geomagnetic field intensity in the Northern Hemisphere, contrary to the geomagnetic field evolution in the Southern Hemisphere. Similarly, the recent rapid drift of the North Magnetic Pole can be explained by the weakening (strengthening) of the patch of high magnetic field intensity above Canada (Siberia) and the concurrent drift towards Siberia of the whole magnetic pattern17.

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Due to the non-dipolar contributions to the geomagnetic field, the northern and southern zones have different shapes that depart significantly from circular rings. The boundaries of the northern zone appear similar to ellipses elongated towards North-America and Siberia, while the southern zone is significantly compressed in its South-Atlantic sector. The shape of the 2020 auroral zones is consistent with previous descriptions of the auroral zones over the 20th and 21st centuries2,8,9,10,11,29.

Figure 1a shows the temporal changes of auroral zones between the 2020 and 2070 epochs, based on the mean MPG forecast. The temporal horizon of 50 years has been chosen as being short enough for data-assimilation geomagnetic field forecasts to remain accurate37,38, and long enough to develop new space weather mitigation policies if needed based on the results presented in this paper. The mean MPG forecast predicts a drift of the northern zone away from North America and towards Siberia. A similar drift can be seen in the location of the North Geomagnetic Pole (the diamonds in Fig. 1a), although its drift direction is not fully correlated with that of the auroral zone. The 2070 southern zone shows very little drift but some elongation in the direction of the Atlantic Hemisphere (towards South-America, the Atlantic Ocean and Africa) and a small net north-westward drift. These results suggest that it will be increasingly unlikely to spot aurorae in North-American locations with the same latitudes as Edmonton and Kodiak, while it will be increasingly likely for locations such as Yakutsk, in Russia. Little change is expected for Europe, Australia and New Zealand. The qualitatively different behaviour in the two hemispheres can only be caused by the non-dipolar components of the main field, since the dipolar field would cause symmetric evolution of both auroral zones (as is the case for the geomagnetic poles). Note that neither the magnetic dip poles (the triangles in Fig. 1a), nor the geomagnetic poles are a satisfactory proxy for auroral zone evolution, as pointed out in10,11. This confirms that non-dipolar magnetic field components are important in defining the locations of the auroral zones.

Figure 1b shows the temporal changes of the danger zones between the 2020 and 2070 epochs: the predicted evolution is qualitatively similar to the evolution of the auroral zones (see Fig. 1a). In particular, there is little change in Northern Europe, with the Northern UK, Denmark and Scandinavia still remaining in these high-risk regions in 2070. Most notably, the high-risk band in North America moves northward, resulting in its southern edge shifting from approximately New York City in 2020 to Toronto in 2070. Concerning the southern high-risk bands, the largest predicted change is a motion towards South America in the Southern Atlantic Ocean. In the Indian and Pacific Ocean the changes are modest, with a small drift southward. In particular, the island of Tasmania and Southern New Zealand (including the city of Dunedin), will remain in the same risk region between 2020 and 2070, according to our forecast.

In accordance with previous work11,17, we can identify features in the geomagnetic field evolution that correlate with the future evolution of the auroral and danger zones predicted here. In the Northern Hemisphere, all forecasts considered in this study (the MPG, IPGP and IGRF forecasts) predict that the recent evolution of the high-intensity patches will continue over the next 5 decades, with the Canadian patch weakening and drifting towards Siberia, while the Siberian patch strengthens (see Supplementary Fig. S4). In the Southern Hemisphere, the high-intensity patch located between Antarctica and Australia is predicted to drift westward, which visually correlates with the evolution of the southern auroral and danger zones (see Fig. 1a). Although interpreting the evolution of the auroral and danger zones in terms of high-latitude geomagnetic field variations appears physically reasonable, we note that no study to date quantitatively links the evolution of the two; indeed, a contribution from low-latitude geomagnetic features cannot yet be excluded. A subsequent study will make use of a more quantitative approach to explore which geomagnetic field features are responsible for the location and evolution of the auroral and danger zones.

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From 2002 to 2004, erosion in the depression zone occurred mainly around the eastern edge and manifested as an expansion of the depression along the long axes. The sand deposition zone expanded rapidly to the surroundings, primarily towards the southwest. The sand drift zone was partially transformed into a sand deposition zone which expanded outward towards the northeast in the sand deposition zone. From 2004 to 2009, the eastern edge of the erosion depression zone expanded considerably and the soil layer moved forward along the prevailing wind direction due to erosion; the sand deposition zone and sand drift zone diminished due to the interannual compound blowout variations.

From 2009 to 2012, expansion in the erosion depression zone occurred mainly around the southeastern edge, while the sand deposition zone expanded to the north and east. The compound blowout changed most significantly within the ten-year study period. From 2002 to 2004, erosion in the depression zone occurred mainly in the northeastern and eastern edges, while the soil layer exposed around the eastern edge moved forward along the long axis of depression due to wind erosion. The sand deposition zone expanded eastward and southeastward due to prevailing west and northwesterly winds. Sand drift zone was transformed into sand deposition zone along with the accumulation of sand materials.

From 2004 to 2009, erosion in the compound blowout depression zone occurred mainly in the southeastern and northeastern edges, primarily exhibiting increased width of depression. Vegetation fixation strengthened due to the abrupt decrease in resultant drift potential from 2004 to 2009, thus leading to the rapid reduction of sand deposition and sand drift zones during that period which contracted in the erosion depression zone direction. From 2009 to 2012, major eroded sites in the depression zone formed the northeastern, eastern, and southeastern edges; the length and width of the depression continued to increase. The sand deposition zone expanded northward and eastward, while the sand drift zone expanded at the southern part of the sand deposition zone.

The shape and variation trends in the trough blowout were dependent mainly on wind entering the blowouts and accelerating continuously in the depressions due to funneling effect. There was no large-scale shrub coverage at the depression bottom, so the wind-drift sands were not effectively intercepted and thus caused severe erosion of the southern slopes, northern slopes, and depression bottom [14, 15]. Shallow depressions and gentle slopes at the southern and northern edges also allowed airflow to form a vortex which blew out from the relatively gentle northern edge to form a new air outlet, thereby leading to the appearance of a small fan-shaped sand deposition zone at the northern part of the depression. Airflow compressed from the stoss slope toe due to the effect of topographic uplift. Wind speed continued to increase and caused severe erosion of the rear depression edge and soil layer, causing the soil layer to gradually disappear along the prevailing wind direction. In the lee slope, the airflow dispersed and wind gradually decelerated to weaken the transportation of sand materials, thereby resulting in gradual deposition of sands in the sand deposition zone. The zone was also found to be controlled primarily by northwest winds. After the sands were transported to the sand deposition zone, they moved southwestward along the prevailing wind direction; thus, slope crest of the zone moved southward and the zone boundary expanded to the south. 2351a5e196