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This report provides findings from real-world zero-day vulnerability and exploit data that could augment conventional proxy examples and expert opinion, complement current efforts to create a framework for deciding whether to disclose or retain a cache of zero-day vulnerabilities and exploits, inform ongoing policy debates regarding stockpiling and vulnerability disclosure, and add extra context for those examining the implications and resulting liability of attacks and data breaches for U.S. consumers, companies, insurers, and for the civil justice system broadly.

The authors provide insights about the zero-day vulnerability research and exploit development industry; give information on what proportion of zero-day vulnerabilities are alive (undisclosed), dead (known), or somewhere in between; and establish some baseline metrics regarding the average lifespan of zero-day vulnerabilities, the likelihood of another party discovering a vulnerability within a given time period, and the time and costs involved in developing an exploit for a zero-day vulnerability.

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When affected organizations do learn about a zero day vulnerability, they may find themselves in a quandary, especially if the vulnerability is in an operating system or other widely used piece of software: they must either accept the risk of attack or shut down crucial aspects of their operations.

A zero day is, as you very well may have already guessed (you clever bastard), a day where no (or zero) miles are hiked, and the body of the hiker is granted a brief window of recovery. There also exists the near-o or near zero day, which describes a day where very few trail miles are hiked (as would happen when arriving in or leaving a town).

Mandiant analyzed more than 200 zero-day vulnerabilities that we identified as exploited in the wild from 2012 to 2021. Mandiant considers a zero-day to be a vulnerability that was exploited in the wild before a patch was made publicly available. We examined zero-day exploitation identified in Mandiant original research, breach investigation findings, and open sources, focusing on zero-days exploited by named groups. While we believe these sources are reliable as used in this analysis, we cannot confirm the findings of some sources. Due to the ongoing discovery of past incidents through digital forensic investigations, we expect that this research will remain dynamic and may be supplemented in the future.

Zero-day exploitation increased from 2012 to 2021, as shown in Figure 1, and Mandiant Threat Intelligence expects the number of zero-days exploited per year to continue to grow. By the end of 2021, we identified 80 zero-days exploited in the wild, which is more than double the previous record of 32 in 2019.

In line with our previous analysis, Mandiant identified the highest volume of zero-days exploited by suspected Chinese cyber espionage groups in 2021, and espionage actors from at least Russia and North Korea actively exploited zero-days in 2021 (Figure 3). From 2012 to 2021, China exploited more zero-days than any other nation. However, we observed an increase in the number of nations likely exploiting zero-days, particularly over the last several years, and at least 10 separate countries likely exploited zero-days since 2012.

In a sharp departure since 2016 and 2017, we did not identify any zero-days exploited by Russian GRU-sponsored APT28 until they likely exploited a zero-day in Microsoft Excel in late 2021. However, open-source reporting indicated that other Russian state-sponsored actors exploited several zero-days in 2020 and 2021, including during likely Russian TEMP.Isotope's activity possibly targeting critical infrastructure networks with a zero-day in a Sophos firewall product.

Since late 2017, Mandiant has noted a significant increase in the number of zero-days leveraged by groups that are known or suspected to be customers of private companies that supply offensive cyber tools and services.

Since 2015, we observed a sharp decline in zero-day vulnerabilities included in criminal exploit kits, likely due to several factors including the arrests of prominent exploit developers. However, as the criminal underground coalesced around ransomware operations, we observed an uptick in ransomware infections exploiting zero-day vulnerabilities since 2019. This trend may indicate that these sophisticated ransomware groups are beginning to recruit or purchase the requisite skills to exploit zero-days that may have been formerly developed for exploit kits.

Mandiant has documented significant growth in ransomware in terms of both quantity and impact. Substantial profits as well as the increasingly compartmentalized, outsourced, and professional ecosystem that supports ransomware have provided operators with two viable pathways to zero-day exploit development and/or acquisition: financial resources and actor sophistication.

We analyzed zero-days from 12 separate vendors in 2021, with vulnerabilities in Microsoft, Apple, and Google products comprising 75% of total zero-day vulnerabilities (Figure 4), likely as a result of the popularity of these products among enterprises and users across the globe. The threat from exploitation of these major providers remains significant, given their prevalence. In addition, we noted a growing variety in vendors being targeted, which can complicate patch prioritization and make it more difficult for organizations who can no longer focus on just one or two vendors as priorities.

From 2012 to 2017, Adobe was the second most exploited vendor, with nearly 20% of all zero-days exploiting Adobe Flash alone. We observed a significant drop in Adobe exploitation since then, almost certainly fueled by Flash's end-of-life.

We suggest that significant campaigns based on zero-day exploitation are increasingly accessible to a wider variety of state-sponsored and financially motivated actors, including as a result of the proliferation of vendors selling exploits and sophisticated ransomware operations potentially developing custom exploits. The marked increase in exploitation of zero-day vulnerabilities, particularly in 2021, expands the risk portfolio for organizations in nearly every industry sector and geography. While exploitation peaked in 2021, there are indications that the pace of exploitation of new zero-days slowed in the latter half of the year; however, zero-day exploitation is still occurring at an elevated rate compared to previous years.

While zero-day exploitation is expanding, malicious actors also continue to leverage known vulnerabilities, often soon after they have been disclosed. Therefore, security may be improved by continuing to incorporate lessons from past targeting and an understanding of the standard window between disclosure and exploitation. Furthermore, even if an organization is unable to apply the mitigations before targeting occurs, it can still provide further insight into the urgency with which these systems need to be patched. Delays in patching only compound the risk that an organization supporting unpatched or unmitigated software will be affected.

The purpose of this report is to share insights from Mandiant's analysis of 2022 zero-day exploitation. Mandiant considers a zero-day to be a vulnerability that was exploited in the wild before a patch was made publicly available. This report examines zero-day exploitation identified in Mandiant's original research, combined with breach investigation findings, and reporting from open sources, focusing on zero-days exploited by named groups. While we believe the referenced open sources are reliable as used in this analysis, we cannot independently confirm the findings of some sources. Technical details of the vulnerabilities are not included; rather, we discuss overall takeaways from threat actor activity, vulnerability trends, and targeted vendors and products. Due to the ongoing discovery of past incidents through digital forensic investigations, we expect that this research will remain dynamic and may be supplemented in the future.

Mandiant tracked 55 zero-day vulnerabilities that we judge were exploited in 2022. While this count is 26 fewer than the record-breaking 81 zero-days exploited in 2021, it was still significantly higher than in 2020 and years prior (Figure 1).

We previously predicted that zero-day vulnerabilities would continue to be exploited at a significantly higher rate than in the 2010s, and the 55 zero-days identified this year indicate a continuation of that trend. A number of factors may have contributed to the zero-day count in 2020 dipping, then tripling in 2021. Pandemic related disruptions in 2020 potentially interrupted reporting and disclosure workflows for vendors, reduced capacity for defenders to detect exploitation activity and, may have encouraged attackers to reserve novel exploits except in the most important cases. Moreover, in 2021 Apple and Android disclosures included more exploitation information. 2351a5e196