Although he had believed that he was a superstar his whole life, it was that moment and performance at UFC 248 that solidified what the bantamweight contender already knew. He had envisioned it, manifested it, and made his dreams a reality.

On a daily basis we are being bombarded by"news" describing the lifestyle and exploits ofsuperstars. The "Superstar phenomenon" is where arelatively small number of people dominate the activities inwhich they are engaged and earn enormous amounts of money, suchas Michael Jordan in basketball or Arnold Schwarznegger inmovies. Extraordinary incomes earned by superstars may be drivenby an allocative equilibrium in which markets reward talentedpeople with increasing returns to ability. Or perhaps, thesuperstar phenomenon has nothing to do with the differentialtalent of individuals. For instance, the phenomenon may emerge asa result of certain consumer behavior. If enormous incomes earnedby superstars are the markets' reward for their superior talent,the superstar phenomenon may be socially admissible. If, on theother hand, the source of their high incomes is not their talent,the skewness in income distributions caused by the phenomenon maybe perceived as inequitable by society. It is the purpose of thispaper to explore the existence of the superstar phenomenon in thefinance, accounting and economics scholarly publication industry.


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Rosensuggests that much of the superstar phenomenon can be explainedby convexity of sellers' revenue functions since the convexrevenue function implies that the distribution of rewards is moreskewed than the distribution of talent (i.e., small differencesin talent are magnified into disproportionate levels of success).Rosen shows that the convexity of revenue functions and the extraskew it imparts to the distribution of earnings can be obtainedby imperfect substitution (i.e., lesser talent is a poorsubstitute for greater talent) among different sellers. Rosenalso demonstrates that the joint consumption technology (i.e., aperformer puts out more or less the same effort in front ofaudience readerships of ten or one thousand), combined withimperfect substitution, can explain the marked concentration ofoutput on those who have the most talent.

In a similar vein, [MacDonald 1988] presents a dynamic version ofRosen's superstar model. He shows that in equilibrium only theyoung enter the occupation and earn low incomes playing (writingfor small readership audiences) to small crowds, and only thesuccessful stay on. Overall, there are few stars in the industrybut as a group they serve a large fraction of the audience andearn an even larger share of the rewards. In order to test theempirical significance of the theory of superstar, [Hamlen 1991] examined the relationship betweentalent (proxied by voice quality) and success (measured by recordsales) in the popular music industry while controlling for otherfactors such as gender, race, the type of music, and the durationof career. Although empirical results show that consumersrecognize quality, the estimated elasticity of record sales withrespect to voice quality is less than unity, repudiating theimplication of the Rosen-MacDonald theory of superstar.

This paper examines thephenomenon of superstar from a perspective which is significantlydifferent from that of the above studies. Specifically, thisstudy employs a stochastic model of Yule and Simon as the probability mechanism underlyingthe editor's choice of an author'sarticles and predicts thatauthor's outputs (articles) will be concentrated among a fewlucky individuals. We find that the probability distributionimplied by the stochastic model provides an excellent descriptionof the empirical data in the publishing of finance, accountingand economics articles. Because the stochastic model does notrequire differential talents among individuals, our empiricalresults suggest that the superstar phenomenon could exist amongindividuals with equal talent. Hence our results are, in spirit,similar to those of Adler.

Another aspect to the superstarphenomenon is where do individuals acquire and practice theirtalent. Brown(1996) explores, amongother things, the institutional source of authors of classicalaccounting articles as well as their present employeraffiliation. That is, where are accounting authors educated(trained) and where do they work? Lukka and Kasanen (1996) study the geographicalbreadth of accounting knowledge. Their findings suggest thataccounting influence is very much localized rather than a globalphenomenon.

The Rosen-MacDonald theory ofsuperstars centers on an implicit comparison of success relativeto the differences in talent. In this section we show that thephenomenon of the superstar does not require differential talentsamong individuals using the stochastic model of Yule and Simon asa representation of the editor's choice behavior. Simon suggeststhat a variety of sociological, biological, and economicphenomena are driven by certain probability mechanisms.Specifically, he shows that a wide range of empirical data (e.g.,distributions of incomes by size, distributions of cities bypopulation, distributions of biological genera by number ofspecies, and distributions of scientists by number of paperspublished) conforms well to a class of distributions which can beobtained form stochastic processes similar to those yieldingnegative binomial of log series distributions. This class ofdistributions is given by: [Simon, 426]

In spirit, the process implied bythese assumptions is similar to the superstar generating processsuggested by Adler. Adler suggests that the superstar phenomenonexists where consumption requires knowledge. He claims that theneed to discuss with other knowledgeable individuals to becomefamiliar with an artist's work (author'sarticle) as a prerequisiteto the consumption (acceptance), of the artist's work(author'sarticle) is an essential element in understanding thephenomenon. He argues that consumers (editors) minimize the costof searching for knowledgeable discussants by choosing the mostpopular artist (author). Adler suggests that consumers (editors)are better off by patronizing the star (authors) when eitherother artists (authors) are not cheaper by more than the savingsin search costs or other artists (authors) are not sufficientlybetter than the star (author).

Probability mechanisms underlyingthe superstar generating process proposed by Adler can besummarized as follows: Suppose that consumers (editors) believeat first that all artists (authors) are equally likely to becomestars, and that each consumer (editor) picks one artist (author)at random. Assume further that consumers (editors) live nperiods and revise their prior distributions after each period.If there were a slight majority of consumers that select anartist (author) as their choice, that artist (author) wouldsnowball into a star because after each period the majority wouldincrease. In other words, if at any period of time an artist(author) had a market share (number of published articles) onlymarginally larger than everybody else, this share would increasesteadily, and ultimately the artist (author) becomes a star.

Notice the close proximitybetween the assumptions underlying the Yule distribution and thesuperstar model proposed by Adler. It is not clear whether theabove assumptions are a realistic representation of the processcreating superstars in the finance, accounting and economicsscholarly journal article publishing industry. Ultimately, thereasonableness of these assumptions can only be judged by theprescriptive power of their implication, i.e., the Yuledistribution. Considering the ubiquity of the distribution in awide range of social and economic data, however, we conjecturethat it may have some predictive content in describing thesuperstar phenomenon. In the following sections, we examinewhether the distribution can describe the cross-sectionaldistribution of author output, measured by the number ofpublished journal articles.

The employment of Equation 7 totest the hypothesis that the Yule distribution represents thestochastic process at the individual journal level provides mixedresults. At the extremes the Journal of FinancialEconomics x2 -statistics of 13.1 supports the superstar phenomenon whereas theFinancial Analysts Journal x2 - statistic is 290.6. Inthe field of accounting there are a number of journals withchi-squared statistics fitting the Yule distribution, especiallythe Journal of Accounting and Economics with a x2 - statistic of 23.7.The largest x2 - statistic for accounting journals is137.3 from the Journal of Accounting Education.

The economics journals that lendcredence to the existence of the superstar phenomenon are the BrookingsEconomic Journal (x2of 18.8) and, again, the Journal of FinancialEconomics. In contrast, the Reviewof Economics and Statisticswitha x2 - statistic of 348.9 suggests that there is nosuch thing as the superstar phenomenon.

This section presents analternative test of the Yule distribution as the underlyingprobability mechanism of the superstar phenomenon. Note firstthat G(i)/G(i+c).1/ic for any constant c when iis much greater than c [Titchmarsh, 58]. Thus the distribution (1) can beapproximated as:

The above results show thatindeed the Yule distribution is an excellent abstraction of thedistribution of the number of articles among different authors infinance, accounting, and economics. It explains nearly 99.8%,99.6% and 99.8% of the empirical distribution of publishedarticles among authors in finance, accounting, and economicsrespectively. These overall results for finance, accounting andeconomics hold at each and every journal. That is, theF-statistic, measuring the explanatory power of Equation 12 whichtests for the applicability of the Yule distribution, for eachjournal is significant at the one percent alpha level. Clearly,the Yule distribution is supported as the stochastic processunderlying the superstar phenomenon. This is in contrast to theearlier results reported in Table 1. Nevertheless, it appears thesuperstar phenomenon does exist at least in the finance,accounting and economics publishing industry. 17dc91bb1f

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