Download [UPD] Mp3 Rainy Days

At the studio now we make Americanos and pull up our rainy day playlist, the sounds that echo through Ann Street Studio on days just like today in New York. The music fills my soul when I look out the window at the beautiful simplicity of water falling and washing away all our yesterdays.

Future changes in the structure of daily rainfall, especially the number of rainy days and the intensity of extreme events, are likely to induce major impacts on rain-fed agriculture in the tropics. In Africa this issue is of primary importance, but the agreement between climate models to simulate such descriptors of rainfall is generally poor. Here, we show that the climate models used for the fifth assessment report of IPCC simulate a marked decrease in the number of rainy days, together with a strong increase in the rainfall amounts during the 1% wettest days, by the end of the 21st century over Southern Africa. These combined changes lead to an apparent stability of seasonal totals, but are likely to alter the quality of the rainy season. These evolutions are due to the superposition of slowly-changing moisture fluxes, mainly supported by increased hygrometric capacity associated with global warming, and unchanged short-term atmospheric configurations in which extreme events are embedded. This could cause enhanced floods or droughts, stronger soil erosion and nutriment loss, questioning the sustainability of food security for the 300 million people currently living in Africa south of the Equator.

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Figure 3 generalizes the analysis of rainfall evolutions over the Malawi and Tanganyika sectors defined in Fig. 2, for the whole distribution of daily rain totals, and not only the rainy days and the extreme events. Given that the climate models still simulate biased distributions of daily rainfall amounts, especially in the tropics, we compare here the structure of rainfall in the historical simulations (HIST, representative of the recent decades under observed concentrations of greenhouse gases) and the future distributions obtained from the emission scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Attention is paid to the agreement between climate models, to quantify the probability of occurrence of each simulated evolution.

In the Tanganyika region, changes in rainfall distribution are more sensitive to the greenhouse gas emission scenario. There is a significant increase in heavy rainfall days associated with RCP8.5 (Fig. 3), while other rainfall categories exhibit weaker, yet significant, changes. Results are also highly reproducible by most climate models. The changes there lead to wetter conditions by the end of the century, suggesting rather favorable conditions for rain-fed agriculture. Yet, this increase occurring mostly during a limited number of intense events, associated impacts for local societies could be weaker than expected, or even detrimental for agronomic yields.

During the p99 events over the Malawi sector more specifically, similar long-term changes are noted, although the spatial patterns are noisier due to smaller sample sizes (Fig. 4b). Stronger moisture convergence prevails over tropical Southern Africa during future extreme rainfall events. This suggests that the average changes discussed above will be exaggerated during heavy rainfall events. Figure 4c further investigates this issue. Instead of computing the differences between future and present p99 events (as in Fig. 4b), we analyze here the short-lived anomalies against their corresponding 30-year climatology (that is, the climate mean state for the early, mid- or late century). From one period to another, including both historical and RCP8.5 simulations, short-term moisture flux and convergence anomalies during heavy rainfall days are remarkably stable (Fig. 4c). Lower-layer fluxes converge over tropical Africa and convey precipitable there, originating from both Atlantic and Indian Ocean basins. Southeasterly anomalies over the south-west Indian Ocean denote an abnormally weak South Indian Convergence Zone19 during these days. This promotes meridional convergence over the subcontinent. Moisture divergence anomalies prevail on both sides of the Great Lakes, on the South Atlantic and along the east coast of Southern Africa. The stationarity of these features indicate that the increase in the p99 values (Fig. 2) results from the superposition of short-lived (synoptic-scale) circulation anomalies, which are mostly unmodified from the late 20th century until the end of the 21st century, and slowly-varying long-term changes directly driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The latter are therefore strongly sensitive to the emission scenarios for future decades, the most optimistic scenario RCP2.6 corresponding to the lowest increase in the extreme event intensities (Figs 2e and 3).

These results show that the climate models are much more consistent for projecting changes in the structure of daily rainfall, namely more intense extreme events and fewer rainfall days2,10, than for seasonal totals. More precise and detailed results could be obtained from high-resolution limited area models, shown to outperform global models, especially for simulating intense rainfall events20. These changes simulated over Southern Africa may sensibly alter the quality of the future rainy seasons, from an agronomic perspective. More frequent dry days or more persistent dry sequences may cause strong decrease in agronomic yields, if occurring during key phases of the phenology (e.g., the flowering phase) when the plant is vulnerable15. Abundant rainfall amounts may also reduce soil fertility due to nitrogen leaching. Although this could add uncertainties and make the modeling chain more complex, inter-comparing crop-models over regions experiencing such evolutions in their daily rainfall (see for instance )21 could allow separating the impacts of climate change from the errors and uncertainties associated with both agronomic and climate models. This could help anticipating such changes and adopt relevant mitigation strategies.

How to cite this article: Pohl, B. et al. Fewer rainy days and more extreme rainfall by the end of the century in Southern Africa. Sci. Rep. 7, 46466; doi: 10.1038/srep46466 (2017).

Looking to get a general opinion on whether people do this, or avoid this. I know that in guitar making at least, gluing up on rainy days is avoided. But then again, they work with very thin, wide pieces of wood which I imagine are more prone to cracking via warpage.

Seattle has a reputation for being fairly rainy and there is data that corroborates that characterization. But it's not as clear cut as you may think, and there are places in the U.S. that receive more rain.

Seattle experiences an average of 152 rainy days a year, which is more than most cities across the U.S. A rainy day is defined as a calendar day in which at least 0.01 inches of rain, or melted snow and ice, falls.

Given the low amount of rain the falls each rainy day, it is no surprise that the average annual rainfall in the Emerald City is only 37.18 inches. This is lower than much of the Eastern and Southern U.S., as well as portions of the Midwest.

Cities in the Northeast that receive notably more rainfall than Seattle include New York, which sees an average of 49.92 inches per year but that rainfall occurs over 122 days. In other words, New York enjoys the equivalent of a month of additional dry days compared to Seattle, but picks up about a foot of additional rainfall.

Miami is another southern location that receives significantly more rain than Seattle, but in fewer days. Miami records an average of 61.92 inches of annual rainfall, with measurable rainfall on 135 days per year. It is also worth noting that Miami usually reports 19 days annually with at least 1 inch of rain, compared with 5 in Seattle.

Overall, the South sees fewer days with rainfall, but when it does rain, a more substantial amount of rain falls. Much of the rainfall here is due to thunderstorms, which can generate heavy rain from ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms can also be very slow moving, which allows for the rain to quickly add up.

Juneau recieves an avearge of 62.25 inches of precipitation each year over 229 days. Hilo recieves an incredible 126.69 inches over 272 days, with an average of 30 days each year recording at least one inch of rainfall.

Spend several days in a gorgeous ryokan and indulge in a bath or ten. Watching the rain fall while soaking in an outdoor bath is pure luxury, especially if yours happens to look out into the mountains.

In the event a named tropical storm or hurricane is predicted to approach Orlando or Tampa, Discovery Cove will determine storm-impacted days and enact our Named Storm Policy, where Discovery Cove will reschedule or refund any vacation package booked online or from the call center. We will not apply any cancellation or change fees for this service. For any additional information, call 407-513-4600.

If your vacation plans do change, due to any other unforeseen events, we do accommodate this by allowing our guests with one complimentary date change prior to your visit. Further changes to your itinerary will be provided for a nominal charge of $50 per change. Bookings made within 14 days of the original reservation date will be booked at the original rate. Bookings made outside of that time will be subject to change based on seasonal rates for the new date chosen.

Please note: If you decide to cancel or rebook your Discovery Cove reservation within 30 days of your visit there is no refund. If the cancellation notice is provided more than 30 days from your originally scheduled arrival, you will receive a full 100% refund. If you have to change or cancel your reservation, please contact the Discovery Cove reservations center at 407-513-4600.

What do you do when it is too rainy or cold to play outside? The children still need some active play time. Not many people have gyms in their houses to allow children to run and jump like they do when they play outside. Try planning some rainy day activities to give the children active play time indoors. Here are some ideas: 2351a5e196