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Abandoning strategic equity allocations may be most tempting at the end of central bank tightening cycles when cash yields reach their most attractive levels. Historically however, exiting the equity market to invest in cash at these inflection points has not provided durable capital appreciation in the longer term. Investors may need to exercise discipline in maintaining target equity weights to achieve long-term return targets.

Top-ticking an expensive market is a fear of many investors, though we believe what you invest in can often be more important than when. The difference in ending portfolio values between perfectly timed annual S&P 500 contributions and the worst-timed contributions is ~$300k. Meanwhile, the difference between the worst-timed contributions and holding cash is ~$600k. We believe this larger opportunity cost underscores the appeal of strategic equity weights.

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Middle Section Notes: Chart shows growth of $10,000 through investments in the S&P 500 and two scenarios in which capital is reallocated to 3-month Treasury Bills on the date of the final hike in the prior two Fed hiking cycles. The results are based on the historical returns of the indices used and no representation is made that an investor will achieve similar results. The example provided does not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees and expenses which would reduce an investor's return. The results will vary based on market conditions.

Equity securities are more volatile than bonds and subject to greater risks. Foreign and emerging markets investments may be more volatile and less liquid than investments in US securities and are subject to the risks of currency fluctuations and adverse economic or political developments. Investments in commodities may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates or factors affecting a particular industry or commodity. The currency market affords investors a substantial degree of leverage. This leverage presents the potential for substantial profits but also entails a high degree of risk including the risk that losses may be similarly substantial. Currency fluctuations will also affect the value of an investment.

You could lose money by investing in money market funds. Although the fund seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share, it cannot guarantee it will do so. The fund's sponsor has no legal obligation to provide financial support to the fund, and you should not expect that the sponsor will provide financial support to the fund at any time.

Gold is a specialized, concentrated asset that comes with unique risks. All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. Investments that concentrate on a relatively narrow market sector face the risk of higher share-price volatility.

This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. This material has been prepared by Goldman Sachs Asset Management and is not financial research nor a product of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (GIR). It was not prepared in compliance with applicable provisions of law designed to promote the independence of financial analysis and is not subject to a prohibition on trading following the distribution of financial research. The views and opinions expressed may differ from those of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research or other departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. This information may not be current and Goldman Sachs Asset Management has no obligation to provide any updates or changes.

Economic and market forecasts presented herein reflect a series of assumptions and judgments as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts do not take into account the specific investment objectives, restrictions, tax and financial situation or other needs of any specific client. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. These forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Accordingly, these forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. These forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may change materially as economic and market conditions change. Goldman Sachs has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these forecasts. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only.

Intermediaries are asked on a quarterly basis to complete a survey discussing the current brokerage marketplace, from recent closings to what is in the pipeline. After the survey closes, the information is compiled and a summary of the findings is released. The reports are routinely published by multiple local and national news outlets.

The quarterly IBBA and M&A Source Market Pulse Survey was created to gain an accurate understanding of the market conditions for businesses being sold in Main Street (values $0-$2MM) and the lower middle market (values $2MM -$50MM).

Market Pulse is a monitoring system consisting of multiple per-instrument widgets. Each widget measures and displays events that are generated by different sources, for example: order flow, order book, options, liquidations, or other special events like stops or icebergs. Market Pulse allows you to monitor multiple instruments and gain a better understanding of market behavior, all in one place.

In both versions Market Pulse provides traders with a great number of tools for analysing markets, however below are the key differences between Market Pulse Web and the full Market Pulse add-on for Bookmap.

Each algorithm tracks the deviation from the standard situation on the market. To identify which situation is normal, the algorithm should pick the historical interval for the comparison. In the widget configuration popup, we have control of this period:

Volume Pressure is a technical analysis indicator that measures the total buyers and sellers Volume Pressures in the market. It calculates the deviation of the pressure from the average on an interval. The percentage value shows how close the current deviation is to the max deviation, that was detected on the interval.

The key to slowing service inflation is of course, the labor market. The BLS job opening survey and the ADP national employment report both came in higher than forecasted for the month of December.10 That said, the Fed would likely like to see more of a weakening in labor market before stopping rate hikes; however, the silver lining for markets right now is that the economy seems to be absorbing higher rates through slower activity, but not higher unemployment, preventing a deep recession. And yes, we will continue to see job cuts pile up as demand slows, but given the near record job openings (even if they come down) and lower labor force participation rate than pre-pandemic, this may result into a small rise in the unemployment rate and a rebalance across industries (for example, a correction of tech excess) and softer wages. Indeed, in the latest payrolls report there were larger than expected job gains, but average hourly earnings growth slowed more than consensus expectation.11 Average hourly earnings growth now sits at 4.6% year-over-year compared with 5.6% year-over-year back in March of 2022.12 Perhaps a soft landing after all.

The information contained herein is an opinion only, as of the date indicated, and should not be relied upon as the only important information available. Any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance. The information contained herein is subject to change, incomplete, and may include information and/or data obtained from third party sources that iCapital believes, but does not guarantee, to be accurate. iCapital considers this third-party data reliable, but does not represent that it is accurate, complete and/or up to date, and it should not be relied on as such. iCapital makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of this material and accepts no liability for losses arising from the use of the material presented. No representation or warranty is made by iCapital as to the reasonableness or completeness of such forward-looking statements or to any other financial information contained herein.

Anastasia Amoroso is a Managing Director and the Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital. In this role, she is responsible for providing insight on private and public market investing opportunities for advisors and their high-net-worth clients. Previously, Anastasia was an Executive Director and the Head of Cross-Asset Thematic Strategy for J.P. Morgan Private Bank, where she identified and invested in emerging technologies and disruptive trends such as artificial intelligence, decarbonization, and gene therapy. She also developed global tactical ideas and implemented institutional-level implementation across asset classes for clients. Anastasia regularly appears on CNBC and Bloomberg TV and is often quoted in the financial press. See Full Bio.

Temu and Shein are the fastest-growing e-commerce marketplaces in the U.S., yet they have practically no U.S. sellers. More than half of Amazon sellers are based in China, and the two newest marketplaces are exclusively for Chinese sellers.

Shopify's marketplace is now available on the web, and from afar, it looks like Amazon or any other online retailer. The new marketplace allows shoppers to search and buy all products hosted on Shopify.

Through the curation and display of proprietary data from SFNet and other leading indicators of market behavior, together with a clear narrative highlighting areas of risk and opportunity, the SFNet Market Pulse promises to bridge the gap between the secured finance market and the broader economic landscape. The report is produced in collaboration with Keybridge, a research consultancy comprising economists and policy experts, and made available through a grant from the Secured Finance Foundation. e24fc04721