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The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of five commodity group price indices weighted by the average export shares of each of the groups over 2014-2016. A feature article published in the June 2020 edition of the Food Outlook presents the revision of the base period for the calculation of the FFPI and the expansion of its price coverage, to be introduced from July 2020. A November 2013 article contains technical background on the previous construction of the FFPI.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 124.1 points in November, up 4.1 points (3.4 percent) from October after declining for three consecutive months. The increase in the price index was driven by higher world palm and sunflower oil prices, more than offsetting lower soy and rapeseed oil quotations. International palm oil prices rebounded by more than 6.0 percent in November, chiefly underpinned by more active purchases by leading importing countries and seasonally lower outputs in major producing countries. World sunflower oil prices also rose moderately, mainly supported by a continued steady pace of import purchases. By contrast, international soyoil prices dropped slightly on subdued global import demand, outweighing the impact of lower soybean production prospects in Brazil, while lingering abundant world supplies contributed to lower world rapeseed oil prices.

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The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 114.2 points in November, up 2.5 points (2.2 percent) from October, marking the second consecutive monthly increase, but still down 23.2 points (16.9 percent) from its value one year ago. In November, international price quotations for butter and skim milk powder increased, reflecting high import demand from Northeast Asian buyers, limited inventories, and increased internal demand ahead of winter holidays in Western Europe. The same factors lifted whole milk powder prices, however, persistently subdued demand from Asian buyers, together with steady production activities in Oceania, capped the month-on-month increase. The weakening of the United States dollar against the euro also contributed to the increase in world dairy prices. By contrast, world cheese prices continued to trend downward on high exportable availabilities, especially for cheddar cheese, despite seasonally tight milk deliveries in Western Europe.

The FAO Meat Price Index* averaged 111.8 points in November, down marginally (0.4 percent) from October, reflecting minor drops in the prices of poultry, pig and bovine meats. At this level, the index value stood 2.8 points (2.4 percent) below its corresponding value one year ago. The drop in international poultry meat prices reflected elevated supplies, mainly from Brazil, notwithstanding the challenges to production stemming from avian influenza outbreaks across many countries. Pig meat prices were down due to persistent sluggishness in import demand in Asian markets and ample exportable availabilities in some exporters, despite a surge in internal sales in Europe ahead of the winter holidays. Meanwhile, ample exportable supplies from Brazil and Oceania weighed on world bovine meat prices. By contrast, ovine meat prices rose slightly, mostly reflecting the impact of currency movements.

The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 161.4 points in November, up 2.2 points (1.4 percent) from October and as much as 47 points (41.1 percent) from its level in the same month last year. The increase in prices in November was mostly related to heightened concerns over global export availabilities in the current season amid worsening production prospects in two leading exporters, Thailand and India, due to severe dry weather conditions associated with the El Nio event. In addition, shipping delays from Brazil, coupled with the strengthening of the Brazilian real against the United States dollar, contributed to the overall increase in world sugar prices. Nevertheless, the strong pace of production in Brazil and lower international crude oil prices limited the month-on-month price increase.

The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, decreased 0.2 percent from October 2023 to November 2023 and was up 3.1 percent from November 2022. The CPI for all food decreased 0.2 percent from October 2023 to November 2023, and food prices were 2.9 percent higher than in November 2022.

Food prices are expected to grow more slowly in 2023 than in 2022 but still at above historical-average rates. In 2023, all food prices are predicted to increase 5.8 percent, with a prediction interval of 5.7 to 5.9 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 5.0 percent, with a prediction interval of 4.9 to 5.1 percent. Food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 7.1 percent, with a prediction interval of 7.0 to 7.2 percent. Food prices are expected to continue to decelerate in 2024. In 2024, all food prices are predicted to increase 1.2 percent, with a prediction interval of -2.0 to 4.7 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to decrease 0.6 percent, with a prediction interval of -5.3 to 4.6 percent, and food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 4.9 percent, with a prediction interval of 3.2 to 6.6 percent.

The Food Price Outlook forecasts the annual percentage change in prices by averaging observed and forecast prices for all months in the current year compared to all months in the previous year. Following a year of high price growth like 2022, the annual forecast percentage change can be higher than recent year-over-year change (i.e., from November 2022 to November 2023) due to high within-year price growth in 2022. For example, although food-at-home prices were only 1.7 percent higher in November 2023 than in November 2022, food-at-home prices in January 2023 were 11.3 percent higher than January 2022. While price growth has moderated in 2023, which the year-over-year values reflect, the forecast captures the annual change from all months in 2023 compared to 2022. For a summary of forecasting methods used in the Food Price Outlook, see ERS Refines Forecasting Methods in the Food Price Outlook.

Between the 1970s and early 2000s, food-at-home prices and food-away-from-home prices increased at similar rates. However, between 2009 and 2019, their growth rates diverged; while food-at-home prices deflated in 2016 and 2017, monthly food-away-from-home prices rose consistently. Differences between the costs of serving prepared food at restaurants and retailing food in supermarkets and grocery stores partly explains this difference.

In 2020, food-at-home prices increased 3.5 percent and food-away-from-home prices 3.4 percent. This convergence was largely driven by a rapid increase in food-at-home prices while food-away-from-home price inflation remained within 0.3 percentage points of the 2019 inflation rate. The largest price increases were for meat categories: beef and veal prices increased by 9.6 percent, pork prices by 6.3 percent, and poultry prices by 5.6 percent. The only category to decrease in price in 2020 was fresh fruits, by 0.8 percent.

In 2021, food-at-home prices increased 3.5 percent and food-away-from-home prices increased 4.5 percent. The CPI for all food increased an average of 3.9 percent in 2021. Of all the CPI food-at-home categories tracked by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS), the beef and veal category had the largest relative price increase (9.3 percent) and the fresh vegetables category the smallest (1.1 percent). No food categories decreased in price in 2021 compared with their prices in 2020.

In 2022, food prices increased by 9.9 percent. Food-at-home prices increased by 11.4 percent, while food-away-from-home prices increased by 7.7 percent. All food price categories tracked by USDA, ERS increased by more than 5 percent, and all food categories grew faster than their historical average rate. Following an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), egg prices had the largest price increase (32.2 percent) between 2021 and 2022 of any category tracked by USDA, ERS. Beef and veal prices increased the least (5.3 percent) between 2021 and 2022 and generally declined from peak prices in November 2021.

Year-over-year price increases continued to slow for all food, food at home, and food away from home. Food-at-home prices were 1.7 percent higher in November 2023 than in November 2022, falling below 2.0 percent for the first time since June 2021. Prices declined for 10 food-at-home categories between October and November 2023. Five food-at-home categories had lower prices in November 2023 than in November 2022: eggs, fresh vegetables, fish and seafood, dairy products, and pork. In 2023, prices are expected to increase for all food-at-home categories except pork.

Beef and veal prices decreased 1.3 percent in November 2023 but remained 8.7 percent higher than November 2022. Prices for beef and veal fell for the first time in 2023 in November, after increasing each month from January to October. Beef and veal prices are predicted to increase 3.6 percent in 2023, with a prediction interval of 3.3 to 3.9 percent.

Pork prices fell 2.8 percent in November 2023 due to weak demand and were 0.5 percent lower than in November 2022. Pork prices declined in the first half of 2023 but had experienced strong growth from July through October. Pork prices are predicted to decrease 1.1 percent in 2023, with a prediction interval of -1.4 to -0.9 percent.

Prices for fresh fruits increased 1.2 percent from October to November 2023 and were 2.1 percent higher than November 2022. Prices for fresh vegetables declined 0.1 percent and were 3.1 percent below November 2022. Prices for fresh fruits and vegetables are predicted to continue their slow growth relative to other categories from 2022. Prices for fresh fruits are predicted to increase 0.7 percent in 2023, with a prediction interval of 0.4 to 1.0 percent. Prices for fresh vegetables are predicted to increase 0.9 percent in 2023, with a prediction interval of 0.6 to 1.2 percent. Prices for processed fruits and vegetables decreased 2.9 percent from October to November 2023, the largest single-month decrease in the history of this category. Processed fruits and vegetables typically undergo a seasonal decline in prices in November, and prices for farm-level vegetables have declined from their peak in November 2022. Despite the decrease in prices for processed fruits and vegetables from October to November, prices for processed fruits and vegetables are predicted to grow more quickly than fresh fruits and vegetables in 2023. Prices for processed fruits and vegetables are predicted to increase 7.8 percent in 2023, with a prediction interval of 7.6 to 8.0 percent. 2351a5e196