Douglas Silveira, PhD

Curriculum Vitae

About
I use Machine Learning, Time Series Econometrics, Game Theory, and Agent-based Models to study Industrial Organization and Regulation topics. In particular, I study firms' strategic behavior, market power analysis, and cartel detection in different economic sectors.

Research
Primary Fields: Energy Economics, Industrial Organization, Machine Learning, and Regulation
Secondary Fields: Applied Econometrics, Game Theory, and Agent-based Models

Working Papers:

"Wholesale Price Prediction: The Role of Information and Transparency" (with David P. Brown and Andrew Eckert) (Under Review)
"Building Weaknesses and Revealing Structural Constraints: Systemic Characterization of Brazilian Regional Resilience" (with Gabriel Arcanjo, Fernando Perobelli and Vinicius Vale) (Under Review)
"Credit Concentration Under Macroprudential Policy: An Agent-based Model Approach" (with Gabriel Alarcão, Regis Ely, and Daniel Cajueiro) (Under Review)
"Sectoral Resilience in Brazil: A Comparative Analysis of External and Internal Crises" (with José Grizendi, Gabriel Arcanjo and Fernando Perobelli) (Under Review)
"Competition or Collusion? Evidence from the Medical Gas Sector in Brazil" (with Luan Pereira and Claudio Lucinda) (Under Review)

Publications:

"Digital Twins and Network Resilience in the EU ETS: Analysing Structural Shifts in Carbon Trading" Sustainability, July 2025 (with Claudia Eirado and Daniel O. Cajueiro)
"Evaluating the Role of Information Disclosure on Bidding Behavior in Wholesale Electricity Markets" Energy Economics, April 2025 (with David P. Brown, Daniel O. Cajueiro, and Andrew Eckert). [Online Appendix]
"Inflation Targeting Regimes in Emerging Market Economies: To Invest or Not to Invest?" Computational Economics, January 2024 (with Ricardo Oscar)
"Screening for Collusion in Wholesale Electricity Markets: A Literature Review" Utilities Policy, December 2023 (with David Brown and Andrew Eckert)
"Strategic Interaction Between Wholesale and Ancillary Services Markets" Competition and Regulation in Network Industries, November 2023 (with David Brown and Andrew Eckert)
"Information and Transparency: Using Machine Learning to Detect Communication" Stanford Journal of Computational Antitrust, November 2023 (with David Brown, Daniel O. Cajueiro, and Andrew Eckert)
"A Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule Agent-based Model to Evaluate Prediction Markets" Journal of Evolutionary Economics, June 2023 (with Athos Carvalho, Regis Ely, and Daniel O. Cajueiro)
Who Are You? Cartel Detection Using Unlabeled Data" International Journal of Industrial Organization, May 2023 (with Lucas Moraes, Eduardo Fiuza, Daniel O. Cajueiro). [code and database]
"The Impacts of Interest Rates on Banks' Loan Portfolio Risk-taking" Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, August 2022 (with Luiz Adão, Regis Ely, and Daniel O. Cajueiro)

"Won't Get Fooled Again: A Supervised Machine Learning Approach for Screening Gasoline Cartels" Energy Economics, January 2022 (with Silvinha Vasconcelos, Marcelo Resende, and Daniel O. Cajueiro). [code and database]
"Do Antidumping Measures Increase Market Power? Evidence From Latin American Countries" The International Trade Journal, October 2021 (with Lucas Lourenço, Glauco Oliveira, and Cláudio Vasconcelos)
"Cartel Screening in the Brazilian Fuel Retail Market" EconomiA, April 2021 (with Silvinha Vasconcelos, Paula Bogossian, and Joaquim Neto)
"Essay on Duopoly Competition with Asymmetric Firms: Is Profit Maximization Always an Evolutionary Stable Strategy?" International Journal of Production Economics, July 2020 (with Silvinha Vasconcelos)
"The Brexit Game: Uncertainty and Location Decision" Papers in Regional Science, May 2020 (with Izak Silva, Silvinha Vasconcelos, and Fernando Perobelli)
"Modelling the location choice: evidence from an evolutionary game based on regional input-output analysis" Regional Studies, June 2019 (with Ademir Rocha, Fernando Perobelli and Silvinha Vasconcelos)

Work in Progress:

"Using Machine Learning to Detect Edgeworth Cycles" (with Andrew Eckert and Yizhe Zhuang)
"Pattern Mining Algorithms to Detect Communication Between Firms" (with David P. Brown, Daniel O. Cajueiro, and Andrew Eckert)
"Game Structure of Payment for Environmental Services Programs" (with Ademir Rocha and Roberto Amaral)