Dollar To Ruble

Moscow has been looking for alternatives to the euro and dollar since its first invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Its gold holdings, for example, have nearly tripled since 2014. Moscow is currently sitting on 150,000 gold bars valued at about $140 billion, mostly stacked in Russian vaults out of reach of Western asset freezes.

Recent history is replete with precedents for gold smuggling by sanctioned economies. In 2019, Russia reportedly flew Venezuelan gold around the world and exchanged it for cash dollars which were then flown back to Caracas. In 2012, Iran sold natural gas to Turkey in exchange for gold, which was then sold for cash in Dubai.

Dollar To Ruble

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The Russian ruble, which has been steadily losing exchange value in a long fall since the beginning of the year, hit 99 to the dollar in Friday trading, its lowest level since the early weeks of the Ukraine war.

After Western countries imposed wide sanctions in the wake of the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the ruble plunged to as low as 130 against the dollar, but the Russian Central Bank enacted capital controls that stabilized its value. By last summer, it was in the 50-60 range to the dollar.

The ruble trouble started shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine last February, which prompting a slew of Western sanctions ultimately resulting in an all-time low of 120 rubles against the U.S. dollar. At that time, the Kremlin also introduced capital controls, making exporters exchange at least 80% of foreign currency revenues in the form of U.S. dollars, euros or other currencies, for roubles. Three months later, the threshold was dropped to 50% before it was scratched altogether.

Russia policymakers have been on edge as the currency neared the psychological threshold of 100 rubles to a dollar last week. The ruble actually crossed that barrier in August, sparking an emergency central bank meeting, a series of rate hikes amounting to 550 basis points, and a decision to halt foreign currency purchases on the domestic markets over the following months.

The Russian ruble weakened past the symbolic threshold of 100 to the dollar before recovering slightly in early trade on October 3, weighed down by foreign-currency outflows and the country's shrinking current-account surplus. The ruble's last tumble into triple digits in August led the Bank of Russia to make an emergency 350-basis-point rate hike to 12 percent and authorities discussed reintroducing controls to buttress the currency. At 0415 GMT, the ruble was 0.21 percent weaker against the dollar at 99.97 after falling to as low as 100.26 soon after opening at 0400 GMT. To read the original story by Reuters, click here.

Archbishop Viktor Pivovarov, the 86-year-old head of the Slavic and South Russian Orthodox Church, which distances itself from the Moscow Patriarchate, told RFE/RL on December 28 that police in the Krasnodar region had charged him with "repeatedly discrediting" Russia's armed forces that invaded Ukraine. The charge stemmed from an article signed by the archbishop condemning the war. The new charge came after Pivovarov in March was fined 40,000 rubles ($436) following a court decision that one of his sermons condemning the invasion "discredited" the military. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Caucasus.Realities, click here.

Vacio was sentenced by a Moscow court on December 27 to 15 days in jail for "hooliganism" for his stunt and was also found guilty of "propagating LGBT relations" and fined 200,000 rubles ($2,180).

The Lefortovo district court in Moscow did not charge Ivleyeva but ruled that the party violated a law banning the "propaganda of nontraditional sexual relations."

Ivleyeva apologized for organizing the party in two videos posted online.

"They say Russia is able to forgive. If it is so, I would like very much to ask you, the people, for a second chance," Ivleyeva said in one video, apologizing to those who may have been offended by the event.

Rising crude prices have also played a role: Oil is one of Russia's main revenue sources, and the nation has pushed for energy exporters to sell their foreign-exchange earnings for rubles on the currency market.

Russian central bankers have also moved to dump foreign currencies. In September, the Bank of Russia said it would sell 21.4 billion rubles worth of foreign currency on the domestic market, up 830% from the amount it had originally planned.

A lower exchange rate allows Moscow to transfer the dollars it earns from selling oil and natural gas into more rubles to pay pensions and run government agencies. But the drop in value went a bit too far, and officials are now tightening it up, analysts say.

The Russian currency passed 101 rubles to the dollar Monday, hitting the lowest level in almost 17 months. The ruble strengthened after the rate hike announcement but has since given up some of those gains to hit about 98 to the dollar.

Inflation reached 7.6% over the past three months, the central bank said. It also hiked rates 1 percentage point last month, saying inflation was expected to keep rising and the fall in the ruble is adding to the risk. Its next meeting is planned for Sept. 15.

Liza Ermolenko, an economist at Barclays in London, said that given the central bank refrained from intervening in the market in April, it is clear that a more sudden and deeper drop in the ruble would be required to make it step in now.

The authorities have made few public comments on the latest falls, which started on Wednesday, when the U.S. State Department announced a new round of sanctions that pushed the ruble to two-year lows and sparked a wider sell-off over fears Russia was locked in a spiral of never-ending sanctions.

As in April, the central bank has reduced its daily buying of foreign currency for state reserves this week to lift extra pressure from the ruble, which has fallen by around 15 percent versus the dollar so far this year.

Kogan said a sustained breakthrough of 100 rubles against the dollar could lead to serious price hikes by companies that use imported goods or equipment, and it might trigger financial panic among the population.

Across Russian society, a feeling that the government cares little about the falling ruble is spreading, with talk of how the Kremlin benefits from a falling currency cropping up across Russian social media.

Russia's ruble is hovering around its lowest value against the dollar since March 2022. A weak currency is already a big deal for ordinary people affected by inflation, but in Russia, the concern is only amplified because of the Ruble's unique history in Russia. Today, we dive deep into Russia's historical connection to the Ruble and why a weak ruble puts Russia in a difficult position today.

Even as Russia marks a historic default on its debt, the nation's currency is gaining strength. The ruble hit a new high against the dollar this week, continuing its streak as the best-performing currency in the world this year.

Three months after the ruble's value fell to less than a U.S. penny amid the toughest economic sanctions imposed on a country in modern history, Russia's currency has mounted a stunning turnaround. The ruble has jumped 45% against the dollar since January, with one dollar worth 53.45 rubles as of Tuesday.

Normally, a country facing international sanctions and a major military conflict would see investors fleeing and a steady outflow of capital, causing its currency to drop. But Russia's unusually aggressive measures to keep money from leaving the country, in combination with a dramatic rise in fossil-fuel prices, are working to create demand for the ruble and pushing up its value.

The ruble's resiliency means that Russia is partly insulated from the punishing economic penalties imposed by Western nations after its invasion of Ukraine, although how long that protection will last is uncertain.

Russia is pulling in nearly $20 billion a month from energy exports. Since the end of March, many foreign buyers have complied with a demand to pay for energy in rubles, pushing up the currency's value.

Russia's central bank has also propped up the ruble with strict capital controls that make it harder to convert it to other currencies. That includes a ban on foreign holders of Russian stock and bonds taking dividend payments out of the country.

Meanwhile, Russian exporters are required to convert half of their excess revenues into rubles, creating demand for the currency. (The conversion requirement was 80% until the end of May, when it dropped to 50%.) On top of that, Orlova noted, it's extremely difficult for foreign companies to sell their Russian investments, another obstacle to capital flight.

"While this is not a free market-determined exchange rate, ruble stability is at the same time 'real,' in the sense that it's driven by Russia's all-time high current account inflows," Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist at the Institute of International Finance (IIF), said via email.

The ruble's rally has created some problems for Russia's central bank, which has taken steps to bring its currency closer to historic levels, including loosening capital controls and lowering interest rates.

A strong currency doesn't mean Russia is immune to economic pain, however. Although the ruble's bounceback and the strength of Russia's oil exports have temporarily cushioned its economy from sanctions, the effect is likely to be short-term, experts say.

Assesses evidence from Soviet sources on wholesale prices of Soviet machinery and recomputes the dollar parity of the Soviet machinery ruble. Official Soviet indexes show an almost monotonic decline of machinery and metalworking prices in the 1960s. However, the evidence strongly indicates that average level of machinery prices rose. The official index evidently ignores new products priced disproportionally high relative to standard counterparts. Machinery prices are estimated as 10 percent above the 1960 level in 1965 and 15 percent higher in 1970. Soviet sources report fragmentary information but indicate an average dollar parity for the machinery ruble below $2.00. Two U.S. estimates for 1955 are $2.85 and $2.31, and the author's computation is $2.53 or $2.64, depending on the weights. For 1955-1970 the adjusted dollar-ruble ratio is estimated in the range $2.25-$2.65. Criticism of ratios in this range are considered and refuted. The contradiction between Soviet and Western estimates remains unresolved. 66 pp. Ref. ff782bc1db