A statistical physics perspective on climate extremes: Linking statistics and dynamics

Vera Melinda Galfi 

The climate system is non-linear, chaotic, out of equilibrium, and inherently complex. Extreme weather and climate events – such as heatwaves and cold spells – can be understood as rare fluctuations within this complex system. From this perspective, statistical physics, which explores connections between microscopic and macroscopic behaviour, offers valuable tools to better understand both the system itself and its rare fluctuations.

In this talk, I will explore the relationship between individual extreme events and the general statistical properties of extremes, as well as the link between local and hemispheric-scale fluctuations, using tools from Large Deviation Theory (LDT) and Extreme Value Theory (EVT). I will introduce the concept of the typicality of extremes and argue that uncovering connections between the statistical and physical properties of extremes can provide new insights and a deeper understanding of rare events in the climate system