Climate Change Impacts on Aviation Weather Hazards: From Turbulence to Extreme Storms and Convective Events

Tommaso Alberti 

Understanding and addressing weather-related hazards in aviation is crucial for safety, efficiency, and sustainability, particularly as climate change modifies atmospheric dynamics. As the global climate warms, atmospheric circulation patterns evolve, leading to complex changes in the frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution of hazardous weather. Understanding these changes is critical not only for ensuring passenger safety but also for reducing operational disruptions and supporting sustainable aviation. This talk explores how climate-driven shifts affect aviation weather hazards across multiple scales—from long-term trends and large-scale atmospheric patterns down to specific extreme events and localized convective phenomena.

We reveal how changes in atmospheric circulation and jet stream positioning drive an increase in turbulence intensity over Europe, with clear air turbulence, particularly challenging due to its unpredictable nature, becoming more frequent at typical flight altitudes. These changes exhibit clear seasonal patterns linked to shifting wind shears and pressure systems, illustrating how large-scale climate variability translates into aviation risk.

Complementing this, we investigate the intensification of extreme tropical and extratropical cyclones under anthropogenic climate forcing, focusing on recent disruptive storms such as Storm Eunice. These extreme weather systems threaten airport infrastructure and complicate critical flight phases like take-off and landing, highlighting the urgent need to factor in evolving climate hazards in aviation planning.

At the local scale, a detailed long-term study at Rome-Fiumicino airport uncovers increasing convective activity and turbulence potential, driven by rising convective available potential energy and enhanced low-level wind shear. This leads to a notable rise in thunderstorms, hail, and reduced visibility events that directly impact airport operations and flight safety.

Together, these interconnected analyses paint a comprehensive picture of how climate change affects aviation-relevant weather hazards across scales, from broad atmospheric circulation changes to localized, high-impact weather phenomena, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies to enhance resilience, safety, and sustainability in aviation.