Perspective on Present and Future Tropical Cyclone Activity and Risk

Suzana Camargo

An overview of the current knowledge of the influence of anthropogenic climate change and tropical cyclones (TCs) will be presented. First, the current trends of multiple aspects of TCs (intensity, frequency, precipitation) will be discussed. Second, the current TC projections will be explored, in particular the impact of model biases on the uncertainty of these projections.  In particular, we will discuss how the known model biases in the tropical Pacific could influence TC projections and recent progress in estimating the TC projections uncertainty.  Lastly, we will discuss TC risk in the present and future.