Drivers and socio-economic impacts of precipitation variability under climate change in North Africa

Meryem Tanarhte

Precipitation variability refers to the changes in precipitation patterns over space and time and is influenced by both natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.  In the last 50 years, various parts of North Africa have suffered devastating droughts and floods, associated with high socio-economic impacts. Characterizing changes in precipitation patterns over time is critical for several socio-economic sectors dependent on hydrological changes.  The influence of synoptic-scale weather systems, including cyclones and Rossby Wave Breaking, as well as global teleconnections such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Saharan Heat Low, are acknowledged as significant factors driving the variability of extreme events and annual precipitation over North Africa. The differing precipitation trends between the Mediterranean part of North Africa and the Sahara, along with significant year-to-year variations, influence the severity and frequency of extreme flooding and droughts. These changes impact the stability of food systems, energy production, and economic growth by altering agricultural practices and livelihoods, particularly in the oases ecosystems that serve as a transition zone between the north and south of the region.  Precipitation variability in the Sahara plays an important role in the interactions between dust aerosols and the water cycle both regionally and globally.