What is going on with Christopher Morel?

By Owen Crandall

July 7th, 2024

Christopher Morel is in the midst of a very disappointing season. Last year, the Cubs slugger finished with an .821 OPS and a .347 wOBA, seemingly building on an already impressive rookie campaign. He also displayed lots of power, posting a .260 ISO and hitting 26 home runs, and showed his versatility by playing all over the diamond. He seemed poised to have a great year for a hopefully competitive Cubs team, with the chance to be the everyday third baseman. However, he has slumped dramatically this year, currently posting a .670 OPS and hitting below the Mendoza line. So what is going on?

One of the most noticeable changes between 2023 and 2024 Morel is how much he strikes out. Last year, Morel struck out at a 31% clip (bottom 10% of the league) and whiffed at a staggering 37%. He also only walked 8.4% of the time. This year, he is only striking out 23% of the time, whiffing at 31% of pitches, and walking at 11.4% (86th percentile). This is a dramatic change, especially for the high-risk, high-reward, power-first type of hitter that Morel was assumed to be. Normally this would be a great development, as the best hitters in baseball combine patience with power and aren’t just successful by selling out for home runs. However, this increased selectiveness seems to have negatively impacted the rest of his offensive profile.

The other most noticeable change is with his power. He’s currently slugging just .366, way down from .508 last year. Checking under the hood, his average exit velocity is only down slightly, but his barrel rate, hard hit%, and launch angle sweet spot% are all down significantly (roughly 4 points each).

There are a few possible solutions to how increased selectiveness could decrease power. One is that by laying off more pitches, he has less opportunities to hit balls hard. Another more likely scenario is that he’s been extremely unlucky. He has a .055 difference between his expected and actual batting average and a .103 difference between his expected and actual slugging percentage. It is likely a combination of these factors that is driving his lack of success.

His performance against sliders is a great example of how his selectiveness and power have changed and influenced each other. Last year he slugged .735 against the pitch, down to just .350 this year. He is also whiffing considerably less, from 47% to 36%. By taking more pitches that he typically crushes, he is giving himself less opportunities to succeed. Combine this with some bad luck, and you’ll have the type of season that Morel is having.

The strangest thing about Morel is that xwOBA says he should be having the best year of his career (.359 compared to .324 and .343). However, his actual wOBA is only .298, by far the worst of his career. Is this a case of an expected statistic being misleading, or does this point to something deeper? It’s very strange that his xwOBA is so high, given that he is not hitting the ball as hard and he’s running slower than in previous years. However, his BABIP is extraordinarily low (.216), so maybe it is just really bad luck that is in turn reducing his confidence, which is making him take even more pitches, which is sapping at his power. In his two previous seasons, his wOBA and xwOBA have been within just a few points of each other, so extreme bad luck is certainly a possibility.

Overall, Morel’s struggles have been strange to say the least. He just turned 25 and should be in the prime of his athletic ability, but he is running slower and hitting the ball softer. He also looks like a completely different hitter, with the lack of whiffs and decreased power. The reason for these changes is hard to tell, possibly stemming from changes to the coaching staff or nagging injuries to his knee, foot, or toe. Whatever the reason may be, the changes have resulted in a subpar offensive season that is greatly underperforming the expected numbers. If Morel wants to turn his season around, he should return to his 2023 ways, strikeouts be damned.

All stats taken from Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, and MLB Baseball Savant.