About the model

All coral reefs in the region were ranked in terms of their ability to survive the impacts of climate change through an optimization model using 5 input data layers:

  1. Reef locations (Schill et al. 2021)

  2. Historical thermal conditions (Dixon et al. 2022)

  3. Future thermal conditions (Dixon et al. 2022)

  4. Hurricane Impacts (Knapp et al. 2018)

  5. Larval connectivity (Schill et al. 2015)


The model was completed regionally and is currently being completed at the national level. The regional model should be used for regional planning, while decisions at the country-level should utilize the national models.


Reference for these maps:

Chollett, I., Escovar-Fadul, X., Schill, S. R., Croquer, A., Dixon, A. M., Beger, M., Shaver, E., Pietsch McNulty, V., & Wolff, N. H. (2022). Planning for resilience: Incorporating scenario and model uncertainty and trade-offs when prioritizing management of climate refugia. Global Change Biology, 00, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16167