The temporary 2021 expansion of the Child Tax Credit (CTC) was intended to reduce child poverty during the hardships of the COVID-19 pandemic. The expansion’s elimination of an existing phase-in with earnings, however, potentially disincentivized labor supply, raising concerns that it would reduce parent employment. We empirically test for employment effects using difference-in-differences analyses with Current Population Survey data. Across many specifications and multiple sub-groups, we find very small, inconsistently signed, statistically insignificant impacts of the 2021 CTC on both labor force participation and employment among adults living in households with children. 

We study the labor market and consumption responses to the unanticipated withdrawal of two generous unemployment benefit (UB) schemes introduced in the US during the COVID-19 pandemic, exploiting variations across states in the timing of the policy change. Using data from the Current Population Survey, we find that the expiration of UBs increased unemployment-to-employment transitions and raised employment. However, approximately half of this effect was driven by job recalls. We also find evidence that unemployed individuals transitioned into lower quality jobs, compared to their previous occupations, and that young job seekers not eligible to UBs were displaced by higher job-search competition. Using anonymized credit and debit card transaction data, we do not find evidence that the UB withdrawals led to declines in consumption levels. 

Mental health conditions have worsened in many countries in recent decades. The provision of unconditional cash transfers may be one effective policy strategy for improving mental health, but causal evidence on their efficacy is rare in high-income countries. This study investigates the mental health consequences of the 2021 Child Tax Credit (CTC) expansion, which temporarily provided unconditional and monthly cash support to most families with children in the United States (US). Using data from the  Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the largest health-related survey in the US, we exploit differences in CTC benefit levels for households with younger versus older children. More generous CTC transfers are associated with a decrease in the number of reported bad mental health days. The effect materializes after the third monthly payment and disappears when the benefits are withdrawn. The CTC's improvement of mental health is larger for more credit-constrained individuals, including low-income households, women, and younger respondents. 

We investigate the welfare effects of unemployment benets (UBs) in a context of high informality, analyzing rich data that captures informal employment, besides formal employment and non-employment. Difference-in-differences analysis reveals a large consumption drop after the loss of a formal job, resulting from shifts towards lower-quality informal employment and an associated wage penalty. Exploiting a UB kink, we then show that higher UBs delay program exit through a substitution of formal with informal employment, but these effects are small. Overall welfare effects of UBs are positive and large, contrasting the common understanding that UBs are inecient when informality is widespread.

Integrated approaches providing assistance to jobless individuals through the combination of income support and active labour market policies have been increasingly advocated in the policy debate, both by policy makers and international organizations. By helping people tackle immediate needs while promoting labour market reinsertion, these combined approaches are expected to improve labour market and social conditions in a sustainable manner. However, evidence on the effectiveness of this policy approach is extremely scant in emerging and developing economies. This paper studies a pivotal example of this policy trend through the evaluation of a public works programme provided alongside a cash transfer as part of a comprehensive social assistance programme that reached around 10 per cent of households in Uruguay between 2005 and 2007. We use rich administrative data of panel nature to study the effects of (i) participating in the public works programme (active component), (ii) receiving the cash transfer (income-support component), and (iii) benefiting jointly of the active and income-support programmes. Results on measures of labour market participation, employment quality, and civil society participation are non-significant across the board. Point estimates are nevertheless of the expected sign and of reasonable magnitude, suggesting that the programme came close to achieving its objective. Possible reasons of the limited effectiveness of the programme could include limited treatment intensity and lack of human capital accumulation.

We present a systematic review and meta-analysis of impact evaluations of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). We extract 296 impact estimates from 51 programme evaluations to analyse the effects of participation on employment, earnings, hours worked, and formality. Our analysis finds that the probabilities of being employed and in formal employment are the labour market indicators most likely to be positively affected by ALMPs in LAC. Moreover, ALMPs are more successful among women and youth and when they are implemented during periods of economic expansion. Training programmes increase both formal employment and earnings; training is particularly effective when it is more intensive and when explicitly targeting poor individuals.