I am a Principal Researcher in the Monetary Policy Studies Division in the Financial Markets Department at The Bank of Canada.

My research focus is to blend macroeconometrics and microeconometrics to make contributions to the monetary policy identification, forward guidance, expectation formation, and forecasting literatures. My latest publication is Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach (Journal of Applied Econometrics). My Bank of Canada working papers and discussion papers can be found here: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/profile/christopher-s-sutherland/ and BIS working papers here: https://www.bis.org/author/christopher_s_sutherland.htm 

I am working on a new paper called Estimating Expected Reaction Functions and Perceived Monetary Policy Shocks. To identify the causal effect of monetary policy, researchers often use either high-frequency or narrative monetary policy shock measures as instruments. By their nature, these instruments tend towards being either weak or endogenous. This paper proposes an approach to construct both relevant and exogenous monetary instruments. First, we develop a framework for the estimation of a perceived reaction function. Second, we propose an econometric model based on that framework. Third, we estimate the FOMC's perceived forward-looking reaction function using private forecast data. This allows us to extract both perceived reaction function coefficient estimates and two perceived policy rate path shock measures. Finally, using our two instruments, we demonstrate that the impulse response function estimates are consistent with New Keynesian theory.

Je suis un chercheur principal dans le division des études sur la politique monétaire et les agents fiscaux au Banque du Canada.

Mes principaux domaines de recherche sont les attentes, la communication de la banque centrale, les prévisions, et l’économétrie appliquée. Mon dernier article est « Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation : A Narrative Approach » (Journal of Applied Econometrics). Mes working papers et documents de discussion de la Banque du Canada sont ici: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/profile/christopher-s-sutherland/ et documents de BIS ici: https://www.bis.org/author/christopher_s_sutherland.htm

Je suis également au Département d'économie et à l'Exeter College de l'Université d'Oxford.