I am a Principal Researcher in the Monetary Policy Studies Division in the Financial Markets Department at The Bank of Canada. I am also a D.Phil student at the Department of Economics, University of Oxford (Exeter College). I am visiting The Department of Economics at Harvard University in Autumn 2024.

My research focus is to blend macroeconometrics and microeconometrics to make contributions to the monetary policy identification, forward guidance, expectation formation, and forecasting literatures. My latest publication is Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach (Journal of Applied Econometrics). My Bank of Canada working papers and discussion papers can be found here: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/profile/christopher-s-sutherland/ and BIS working papers here: https://www.bis.org/author/christopher_s_sutherland.htm 

I am working on a new paper called Monetary Policy Rate Path Shocks. This paper first outlines a monetary policy rule framework, which emphasizes the importance of including central bank judgment in policy rules. It then proposes an econometric strategy for estimating monetary policy shocks given these dynamics. Finally, it uses this framework and strategy to construct forecast-based monetary policy rate path shocks. The main advantage of using forecasts over market surprises is the ability to capture pure interest rate expectations, which can then be decomposed into the systematic component of monetary policy (endogenous response), the dynamic effect of monetary policy (including forward guidance), and shocks. The main advantage over narrative shocks is the ability to construct not only policy rate shocks but also policy rate path shocks, and indeed, to do so at a higher frequency.

Je suis un chercheur principal dans le division des études sur la politique monétaire et les agents fiscaux au Banque du Canada.

Mes principaux domaines de recherche sont les attentes, la communication de la banque centrale, les prévisions, et l’économétrie appliquée. Mon dernier article est « Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation : A Narrative Approach » (Journal of Applied Econometrics). Mes working papers et documents de discussion de la Banque du Canada sont ici: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/profile/christopher-s-sutherland/ et documents de BIS ici: https://www.bis.org/author/christopher_s_sutherland.htm

Je suis également au Département d'économie et à l'Exeter College de l'Université d'Oxford.