In Q4 2024, the North American palladium market experienced significant fluctuations driven by supply constraints and shifting demand in the automotive and manufacturing sectors. In October, prices rose by 7%, fueled by tight supply conditions and geopolitical concerns over potential sanctions on Russian palladium exports. However, by November, the market stabilized despite ongoing supply fluctuations, as new export orders declined at an accelerated rate due to weaker international demand. In December, palladium prices dropped by 4%, impacted by reduced trading activity during the holiday season and a weaker dollar that dampened market sentiment.
Key market factors included elevated palladium inventories from earlier restocking efforts and geopolitical uncertainties surrounding Norilsk Nickel, Russia's dominant supplier, which controls a substantial share of global palladium production. Despite a 2.8% rise in vehicle sales, signaling marginal growth in automotive demand, overall palladium consumption faced pressure from the increasing popularity of electric vehicles (EVs).
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The quarter-ending price for Palladium Metal DEL Alabama stood at USD 975/oz. Q4 trends reflected an initial price surge, followed by stabilization and a subsequent decline, highlighting the intricate interplay of supply chain disruptions, consumer demand shifts, and geopolitical influences shaping the market.
In Q4 2024, the European palladium market exhibited considerable volatility, influenced by economic and geopolitical factors. Prices climbed by 7% in October as tight supply and the threat of sanctions on Russian palladium exports, particularly from MMC Norilsk Nickel, created uncertainty over market access. By November, prices stabilized as the automotive sector maintained its reliance on palladium, though inventory levels remained elevated due to prior restocking efforts. In December, prices fell by 4%, primarily due to seasonal trading slowdowns and a weakening dollar.
Demand from the gasoline-powered vehicle segment remained subdued, with new passenger car registrations dropping by 7.1% in December, exacerbating concerns over long-term palladium demand amid the industry's transition to EVs.
The quarter-ending price for Palladium Metal FD Ruhr was USD 1,142/oz. The Q4 pricing trend reflected an initial rise, stabilization, and eventual decline, underscoring the challenges posed by supply disruptions, geopolitical uncertainties, and shifting consumer preferences.
The APAC palladium market in Q4 2024 experienced notable fluctuations, shaped by geopolitical tensions and evolving demand dynamics, particularly in the automotive sector. In October, prices surged by 7% due to concerns over potential U.S. sanctions on Russian exports, especially from Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest palladium producer. However, this momentum faded in November as prices stabilized, supported by steady automotive demand despite growing concerns about EV adoption eroding traditional gasoline-powered vehicle sales. By December, palladium prices fell by 4%, influenced by reduced trading activity during the holiday season and a weaker dollar.
China, a key player in the global palladium market, exhibited strong performance, with nearly 1.27 million new-energy vehicles sold in November, marking robust year-on-year growth. Despite this, overall palladium demand softened as EV adoption surged, signaling a critical transition within the automotive sector.
The quarter-ending price for Palladium Metal Ex-Shanghai was USD 1,142/oz. Throughout Q4, the market experienced an initial price increase, followed by stabilization and a decline, reflecting the complexities of geopolitical uncertainties and shifting demand trends.
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