Latest Oleic Acid Price Trends and Demand Forecast Analysis

Oleic Acid Market Analysis: Price Trends and Outlook in Q2 2025

Introduction

The global oleic acid market experienced notable fluctuations during the second quarter (Q2) of 2025, with regional dynamics driving distinct pricing patterns. Oleic acid, a monounsaturated fatty acid widely used in soaps, detergents, lubricants, cosmetics, food emulsifiers, and industrial chemicals, is heavily influenced by feedstock availability, palm oil pricing, and downstream demand from industries such as personal care and oleochemicals.

Across North America, Asia-Pacific (APAC), and Europe, Q2 2025 highlighted a common theme of downward price corrections, reflecting weak demand fundamentals and improved supply conditions. However, each region demonstrated its own market-specific drivers, resulting in varying degrees of price softness.

This article provides an in-depth analysis of oleic acid pricing trends in Q2 2025 across North America, APAC, and Europe, examining the factors that shaped the market and offering insights into future prospects.

North America: Oleic Acid Price Trends

Q2 2025 Overview

In North America, oleic acid spot prices followed a steady downward trajectory in Q2 2025. The market recorded an average quarter-over-quarter fluctuation of approximately 6.0% to 11.5%, signaling persistent weakness in demand and easing cost pressures from upstream feedstocks.

By the end of June, prices had corrected sharply, settling near USD 1,315 per metric ton (MT). The most significant correction was seen in June itself, when oleic acid prices declined by nearly 11.45%, a reflection of intensifying supply availability and reduced procurement by downstream sectors.

Demand-Side Influences

1. Personal Care and Cosmetics Industry:
   The traditionally strong demand from the personal care sector, where oleic acid is a key ingredient in emulsifiers, soaps, and skin-care products, remained muted. Inflationary pressures on consumer spending in the U.S. and Canada curtailed demand for premium cosmetic and personal care products, indirectly weighing down oleic acid consumption.

2. Food and Beverage Applications:
   Oleic acid’s use as a food emulsifier also came under pressure. Despite steady food manufacturing activity, buyers opted for cautious procurement strategies, purchasing only when necessary, which amplified downward momentum.

3. Industrial Applications:
   Demand from lubricants and other industrial chemicals declined moderately as industrial output in Q2 slowed, especially in sectors tied to automotive and machinery, both of which were impacted by global economic uncertainties.

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Supply-Side Dynamics

• Feedstock Availability: With steady inflows of palm oil-based derivatives, supply levels across the U.S. market remained stable to abundant. The weaker feedstock pricing environment globally also contributed to cost relief for oleic acid producers.

• Domestic Production and Imports: Local producers faced competitive pricing pressure from imports, particularly from APAC suppliers offering oleic acid at relatively lower rates, intensifying the bearish sentiment.

Price Trajectory

• April 2025: Prices showed slight corrections as buyers delayed bulk purchases, dropping in the range of 6% month-on-month.

• May 2025: The trend continued, with buyers exploiting abundant availability and lower raw material costs.

• June 2025: A steep fall of 11.45% brought prices to USD 1,315/MT, marking the lowest point of the quarter.

Regional Implications

The North American oleic acid market’s Q2 softness underscores the vulnerability of fatty acid markets to consumer demand cycles, industrial slowdowns, and competitive imports. The sharp June correction raised concerns for producers, many of whom may reassess production levels in the coming quarter to stabilize market fundamentals.

Asia-Pacific (APAC): Oleic Acid Price Trends

Q2 2025 Overview

The APAC oleic acid market in Q2 2025 exhibited a stable to downward price trend, with average monthly declines ranging from 1.5% to 13%. By June, oleic acid spot prices had reached approximately USD 1,130/MT, reflecting both subdued demand and evolving raw material cost structures.

APAC, being a hub for oleochemicals due to abundant palm oil supply (particularly from Malaysia and Indonesia), set the tone for global oleic acid pricing.

Demand-Side Influences

1. China’s Demand Volatility:
   China, the largest consumer in the region, reported weak oleic acid demand, especially from the detergent and surfactant industry. The country’s slower-than-expected recovery in household consumption weighed heavily on market sentiment.

2. Southeast Asia and India:
   Demand from India remained steady but unspectacular, with moderate procurement by the soap and personal care sector. Southeast Asia mirrored this trend, with industrial buyers cautious amid fluctuating palm oil prices.

3. Export Influence:
   With domestic demand subdued, APAC suppliers increased exports, particularly to Europe and North America. This contributed to global oversupply, pushing prices downward.

Supply-Side Dynamics

• Palm Oil Influence: As oleic acid is derived primarily from palm oil, falling crude palm oil (CPO) prices in Q2 put downward pressure on oleic acid costs. Improved palm oil harvests in Indonesia and Malaysia added to the abundance of feedstock.

• Production Levels: Regional producers continued to operate at steady capacity, with no major supply disruptions. The balance tipped in favor of oversupply.

Price Trajectory

• April 2025: A mild decline of around 1.5% marked the beginning of the quarter.

• May 2025: Prices dipped further as raw material softness deepened.

• June 2025: A sharper correction of up to 13% led to spot prices closing near USD 1,130/MT.

Regional Implications

The APAC market’s dominant role in global oleic acid production ensured that its downward price trend had spillover effects worldwide. With palm oil prices remaining subdued, oleic acid exporters in the region had to contend with thinner margins, while global buyers benefited from competitive pricing.

Europe: Oleic Acid Price Trends

Q2 2025 Overview

In Europe, oleic acid prices followed a clear downward trajectory throughout Q2 2025, with monthly declines ranging between 5.3% and 12.5%. By June, prices closed near USD 1,260/MT, reflecting a combination of improved regional supply and softer demand conditions.

Demand-Side Influences

1. Consumer Spending Weakness:
   Europe’s ongoing economic challenges, including inflationary pressures and slower household spending, dampened demand for oleic acid in the personal care and cosmetics sectors.

2. Food Processing Industry:
   Demand from the food industry remained relatively steady but insufficient to counteract broader weakness.

3. Industrial Applications:
   Reduced demand from the lubricants and chemical sectors further pressured prices, particularly in Germany and France, where industrial activity slowed in Q2.

Supply-Side Dynamics

• Improved Availability: Regional supply improved significantly, aided by stable imports from APAC and adequate domestic production.

• Competitive Imports: Lower-cost imports from Asia exerted downward pressure on European producers, forcing them to adjust prices to maintain competitiveness.

Price Trajectory

• April 2025: Prices saw early corrections of around 5.3%.

• May 2025: The downward momentum strengthened as imports rose.

• June 2025: A steep decline of 12.5% pulled spot prices to around USD 1,260/MT.

Regional Implications

The European oleic acid market in Q2 2025 highlighted the impact of oversupply and subdued demand convergence. The region’s reliance on imports, combined with domestic market softness, reinforced the bearish trend.

Comparative Analysis: North America vs APAC vs Europe

• North America experienced one of the steepest declines in June (-11.45%), signaling acute supply-demand imbalances.

• APAC faced steady downward corrections, largely due to feedstock (palm oil) dynamics and weak regional demand. Prices remained the lowest globally at USD 1,130/MT.

• Europe displayed consistent monthly declines (up to 12.5%), underscoring the impact of imports and domestic demand weakness.

The common thread across all three regions was the downward pressure on prices driven by subdued demand and improved availability of feedstocks. However, APAC’s role as a global supplier amplified oversupply effects worldwide.

Outlook for Q3 2025

Looking ahead, the oleic acid market in Q3 2025 is likely to remain influenced by several factors:

1. Palm Oil Price Movements: Any rebound in palm oil could provide cost support for oleic acid.

2. Consumer Demand Recovery: Seasonal trends in personal care and food products may offer limited relief.

3. Export Dynamics: APAC’s aggressive export strategy will continue to shape global pricing.

4. Macroeconomic Factors: Inflation, industrial slowdown, and trade flows in Europe and North America will dictate procurement strategies.

While some stabilization may occur, the market outlook remains cautious, with downward pressures expected to persist unless demand improves significantly.

Conclusion

The oleic acid market in Q2 2025 demonstrated a clear bearish trend across all major regions. North America witnessed sharp corrections, APAC struggled with oversupply and palm oil-linked cost softness, and Europe faced competitive imports coupled with weak demand.

As the industry moves into Q3 2025, the oleic acid market remains under the influence of feedstock dynamics, global trade patterns, and consumer demand recovery. Buyers are expected to continue adopting cautious procurement strategies, while producers may face margin pressures amid persistent price softness.

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