Cold Rolled Coil Price Index, Trend, Chart, News, Monitor and Forecast

Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) Price Trends and Market Analysis – Q2 2025

Introduction

Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) is a critical steel product widely used across industries such as automotive, construction, mechanical equipment, home appliances, and HVAC systems. Its performance as a material with higher strength, improved finish, and better dimensional accuracy makes it essential for downstream applications. Consequently, movements in CRC prices often act as a barometer for overall industrial and manufacturing health in different regions.

The second quarter of 2025 presented a mixed outlook for CRC markets across North America, Asia-Pacific (APAC), and Europe. While the United States witnessed a notable decline in its CRC price index, Indonesia suffered a sharp correction due to oversupply pressures. Conversely, Germany displayed relative stability, recording a slight price improvement, underscoring regional demand resilience.

This article explores CRC price trends across these three regions, highlighting key demand drivers, market constraints, and future outlooks.

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North America: CRC Price Weakness in the USA

Price Performance in Q2 2025

The Cold Rolled Coil Price Index in the United States fell by 2.4% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, continuing a downward trend that started in late Q1. The decline was largely attributed to softening demand across several core downstream industries.

• Automotive sector slowdown: Vehicle production levels were muted as manufacturers scaled back orders due to high inventories and sluggish retail sales. Electric vehicle (EV) producers, who were expected to drive steel consumption, faced challenges from weaker consumer confidence and high financing costs.

• HVAC systems and appliances: Cooling and heating equipment demand declined, partly because of stable weather patterns reducing seasonal orders and a broader slowdown in construction-related demand. Similarly, home appliance sales dipped amid constrained household spending, weakening CRC requirements in the white goods sector.

• Construction-linked pressures: While public infrastructure projects provided some support, private real estate construction remained sluggish due to elevated interest rates.

Cost Drivers and Supply-Side Considerations

The decline in CRC prices was not only a demand story but also reflected input-side easing.

• Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) trends: CRC prices are directly tied to HRC movements. As HRC values dropped due to weaker scrap and iron ore costs, CRC mills faced downward margin pressures.

• Import competition: Imported CRC, particularly from Mexico and South Korea, provided cheaper alternatives for buyers, further capping domestic mill pricing power.

• Energy and logistics costs: Moderating energy prices and more stable supply chains after the disruptions of 2023–2024 reduced cost-push inflation.

Market Outlook for H2 2025

Looking ahead, U.S. CRC prices may remain under pressure unless demand from automotive and construction recovers. Key indicators to watch include:

1. Automotive sales recovery – particularly EV uptake, which could revive steel-intensive demand.

2. Government stimulus – infrastructure and clean energy projects may indirectly support CRC consumption.

3. Import dynamics – if trade remedies or tariffs are adjusted, domestic mills could regain competitiveness.

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Asia-Pacific: Sharp CRC Price Decline in Indonesia

Price Performance in Q2 2025

In stark contrast to the U.S., the Cold Rolled Coil Price Index in Indonesia plunged by 18.3% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, representing one of the steepest regional declines.

Key Market Drivers

1. Oversupply in the domestic market:

   • Indonesian mills, particularly those with integrated steel operations, maintained high production levels despite weak domestic uptake.

   • Inventory overhang created significant downward price pressure.

2. Competitive export offers:

   • CRC from neighboring producers such as China, Vietnam, and South Korea entered regional markets at aggressive prices.

   • Indonesian producers struggled to remain competitive, further amplifying domestic oversupply.

3. Muted construction and manufacturing activity:

   • Domestic construction growth slowed due to tighter credit availability.

   • Demand from appliance manufacturing remained weak, reflecting global consumer softness.

Structural Challenges

Indonesia’s steel industry faces several long-term hurdles that compounded the Q2 downturn:

• Dependence on imports of raw materials such as slab and hot rolled coils exposes mills to global volatility.

• Rising operational costs, particularly electricity and logistics, challenge profitability.

• Limited downstream integration, with most consumption concentrated in construction, creates vulnerabilities when real estate activity slows.

Outlook for H2 2025

The outlook for Indonesia’s CRC market remains bearish unless supply adjustments are made. Key developments to monitor include:

• Export diversification: Indonesian mills may increasingly target non-traditional markets like Africa or the Middle East to offset regional competition.

• Government policy interventions: Import restrictions or incentives for domestic consumption could provide some relief.

• China’s role: Any production cuts in China may indirectly ease competitive pressures on Indonesian mills.

Europe: Stability and Modest Gains in Germany

Price Performance in Q2 2025

Contrary to the downturns in the U.S. and Indonesia, Germany’s Cold Rolled Coil Price Index recorded a slight increase of 0.4% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025. While the gain was marginal, it indicated resilience in key industrial sectors.

Drivers of the Uptick

1. Automotive sector recovery:

   • Germany, Europe’s automotive hub, experienced modest demand recovery as both domestic sales and exports improved.

   • The transition toward electric vehicles and hybrid production created incremental demand for high-grade CRC.

2. Mechanical equipment and machinery:

   • Orders for industrial machinery and mechanical components picked up due to gradual recovery in export markets like Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

   • CRC, with its strength and durability, found consistent usage in these applications.

3. Improving consumer and industrial sentiment:

   • The easing of energy price shocks seen in previous years provided relief to manufacturing.

   • German steel mills leveraged relatively stable raw material costs to maintain steady production.

Supply-Side Developments

• Mills adjusted output cautiously, avoiding the oversupply issues seen in APAC.

• Import dependence decreased slightly as regional mills met domestic demand.

• Environmental regulations continued to shape steel production, with mills investing in greener technologies, which may limit excess capacity in the long run.

Outlook for H2 2025

Germany’s CRC prices are expected to remain stable with moderate upside potential, supported by:

• Sustained automotive demand, particularly from EV-related investments.

• Export-oriented recovery in machinery and mechanical engineering.

• Policy support under EU industrial and green transition programs.

However, risks remain from global oversupply, especially if cheap Asian CRC finds its way into Europe.

Comparative Regional Analysis

The second quarter of 2025 underscored clear divergences in CRC markets:

• United States: Moderate decline (-2.4%) tied to demand weakness in automotive, HVAC, and home appliances.

• Indonesia: Severe correction (-18.3%) caused by oversupply and competitive exports.

• Germany: Stable with a modest gain (+0.4%) thanks to recovering industrial demand.

This divergence highlights the role of domestic demand resilience, industry structure, and policy frameworks in shaping CRC pricing outcomes.

Global Trends Influencing CRC Prices

Beyond regional dynamics, several global factors shaped CRC price performance in Q2 2025:

1. Raw material cost volatility: Iron ore and coking coal prices remained subdued, reducing input costs.

2. Global trade flows: Oversupply in Asia influenced international trade dynamics, exerting pressure on markets like Indonesia.

3. Energy transition policies: Europe’s push toward greener steel production increased costs but also created supply discipline.

4. Monetary policy: High global interest rates constrained construction and automotive demand, particularly in North America.

Conclusion

The global Cold Rolled Coil market in Q2 2025 reflected a complex interplay of regional demand, supply dynamics, and international trade pressures. The United States grappled with weak downstream consumption, Indonesia endured a sharp correction due to oversupply, while Germany managed to achieve stability backed by industrial resilience.

Looking forward, the trajectory of CRC prices will depend on recovery in the automotive and construction sectors, trade policy adjustments, and the ability of producers to align supply with realistic demand expectations. While short-term pressures remain, long-term structural trends like EV expansion, green steel initiatives, and infrastructure development will continue to shape the market’s evolution.

Get Real Time Prices for Cold Rolled Coil (CRC): https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/cold-rolled-coil-1355

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