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Coconut Oil Price Trends and Market Analysis – July 2025
Coconut oil remains one of the most versatile edible oils globally, widely used in food processing, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and biofuels. Tracking its price movements across major regions provides insights into market dynamics, supply-demand trends, and global trade flows. This article presents a detailed analysis of coconut oil price trends in North America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, with a focus on July 2025.
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North America: Sustained Upward Momentum in the US
Price Overview
The Coconut Oil Price Index in the United States continued to exhibit an upward trend in July 2025, maintaining the trajectory observed in previous months. After a period of relative stability in May and June, prices in July were buoyed by tightening global supplies and elevated input costs, including the rising cost of raw coconuts and freight charges.
Average price: The US coconut oil price reached approximately USD 1,650/MT, reflecting a 2.8% increase compared to June 2025.
Drivers: The upward momentum was primarily supported by:
Limited export availability from key producing countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines.
Rising energy and logistics costs impacting import parity prices.
Increasing demand from the food and personal care industries, particularly for organic and refined coconut oil products.
Market Dynamics
The US market for coconut oil is heavily influenced by imports, as domestic production is negligible. The bulk of coconut oil consumed in the US is sourced from Southeast Asia, with Indonesia and the Philippines being primary exporters. In July, several shipping constraints and port congestion contributed to supply tightness, exerting upward pressure on prices.
Consumer demand: Retail and industrial demand remained firm, especially in baking, confectionery, and skincare products. This continued strength in consumption further reinforced the bullish sentiment.
Inventory levels: Traders reported lean inventory positions, prompting speculative buying and hedging activities.
Forecast and Outlook
Looking ahead, the US coconut oil market is expected to remain firm in the near term, with potential volatility linked to international supply disruptions and global coconut production trends. Any changes in import policies or weather events affecting Southeast Asian coconut crops could significantly impact prices.
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Europe: Price Recovery in the Netherlands
Price Overview
In Europe, the Coconut Oil Price Index in the Netherlands rebounded sharply in July 2025, following a 4.20% decline in June. This rebound signals a short-term bullish correction, reflecting a stabilization in supply-demand fundamentals.
Average price: Approximately USD 1,620/MT, marking a recovery from the June slump.
Drivers: Key factors behind the price rebound include:
Stronger demand from the food processing sector, particularly in bakery and snack production.
Limited availability of high-quality refined coconut oil, prompting buyers to secure immediate shipments.
Increased import costs due to freight and energy price pressures.
Market Dynamics
European markets are characterized by high dependency on imports, primarily from Indonesia, the Philippines, and some Pacific islands. The June decline was largely attributed to temporary oversupply and a slowdown in regional industrial activity. However, July saw a reversal in market sentiment, with buyers resuming purchases to replenish inventories.
Industrial demand: The cosmetic and personal care sector continued to absorb significant volumes, especially for virgin and organic coconut oil derivatives.
Speculative activity: Traders reacted to tightening supply expectations by engaging in pre-emptive purchasing, further supporting price recovery.
Forecast and Outlook
The European coconut oil market is expected to maintain a moderately bullish outlook in the short term. Seasonal demand spikes, coupled with potential disruptions in Southeast Asian supply chains, may sustain price momentum. Traders are advised to monitor import logistics and energy cost trends, which remain key determinants of market behavior.
APAC: Indonesia Leads a Market Reversal
Price Overview
In the Asia-Pacific region, Indonesia—the world’s largest coconut oil exporter—saw its crude coconut oil price index reverse its downward trend in July 2025. After a sharp correction in June, the market rebounded, reflecting stronger domestic constraints and renewed regional buying.
Average price: Around USD 1,570/MT, representing a 3.5% increase from June.
Drivers:
Domestic supply constraints due to weather-related production challenges.
Higher regional demand from neighboring Southeast Asian countries.
Export restrictions and policy adjustments aimed at stabilizing domestic prices.
Market Dynamics
Indonesia’s coconut oil market plays a central role in global price formation. July 2025 witnessed several factors influencing market sentiment:
Domestic production: Some key coconut-growing regions faced monsoon-related delays, affecting the harvesting cycle and oil extraction.
Regional trade: Countries such as India, China, and Malaysia resumed active import orders, strengthening regional buying pressure.
Stock levels: Local processors reported tightened inventories, pushing up prices at both wholesale and export levels.
Forecast and Outlook
Given the ongoing domestic supply constraints and regional demand recovery, the APAC coconut oil market is likely to see continued upward momentum in the coming months. Traders should closely watch:
Weather patterns affecting coconut yields.
Government policies on export quotas or tariffs.
Freight and energy costs influencing logistics and final landed prices.
Comparative Analysis Across Regions
The coconut oil market in July 2025 displayed notable regional divergences but also shared common drivers:
Region
Price Trend
Key Drivers
Outlook
North America (US)
Upward
Supply tightness, elevated import costs, strong industrial demand
Firm, potential volatility due to international supply disruptions
Europe (Netherlands)
Rebound after June decline
Recovery in industrial demand, limited high-quality imports
Moderately bullish, dependent on import logistics
APAC (Indonesia)
Reversal from June dip
Domestic constraints, regional buying, export policies
Continued upward momentum, closely tied to production and policy changes
Global factors affecting all regions:
Rising energy and freight costs impacting imported coconut oil prices.
Volatile weather conditions affecting coconut production in Southeast Asia.
Renewed industrial demand, particularly from the food, cosmetic, and personal care sectors.
Conclusion
The July 2025 coconut oil market reflects a complex interplay of regional supply-demand dynamics, international trade flows, and input cost pressures.
In North America, prices climbed on the back of supply tightness and robust industrial demand.
Europe experienced a price rebound, reversing June’s decline, supported by renewed buying and stabilization of imports.
In APAC, particularly Indonesia, the market recovered after a sharp June correction, driven by domestic constraints and regional demand.
Overall, global coconut oil prices are showing resilience, with short-term bullish corrections evident across major regions. Market participants should monitor production trends in Southeast Asia, export policies, and freight costs, as these will remain critical determinants of price movements through Q3 2025.
As global supply chains continue to navigate logistical challenges and fluctuating demand, coconut oil is poised to maintain dynamic pricing trends, offering opportunities for both exporters and industrial buyers to optimize procurement strategies.
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