CENS COUNTERING EXTREMISM WORKSHOP

The Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS) convened its annual Workshop on countering extremism from 8-11 November 2021. Held via Zoom amid ongoing travel restrictions, the Workshop brought together nine leading experts for what became a lively and thought-provoking series of discussions.

Panel One considered evolutions among violent extremist networks in Indonesia, and recent developments in counterterrorism. Speakers included Alif Satria (Researcher, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS Indonesia), Dya Ayu Kartika (Analyst, Institute for the Policy Analysis of Conflict, IPAC), and Jordan Newton (Senior Advisor Australia-Indonesia Partnership for Justice, AIPJ2).

The following evening, Panel Two outlined current research on the psychology of radicalisation and examined the similarities among personal pathways toward different extremist narratives. Leading the discussions were Professor Arie Kruglanski (Distinguished University Professor, University of Maryland), Dr Michael Wolfowicz (Honorary Research Fellow, University College London), and Dr Leor Zmigrod (Research Fellow, University of Cambridge).

Concluding the event was Panel Three, which evaluated the Taliban’s renewed governance in Afghanistan and the implications for regional Islamist militancy. Expert insight was provided by Dr Amira Jadoon (Assistant Professor, Combating Terrorism Center, West Point), Dr Cole Bunzel (Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University), and Andrew Mines (Research Fellow, Program on Extremism, George Washington University).

The first dialogue focused on Indonesia, where terrorist networks have been decimated by counterterrorism operations in recent years. However, Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) maintains significant organisational resources and a robust structure, according to Alif Satria, while Jamaah Ansharud Daulah (JAD) remains resilient through a decentralised network of autonomous cells, low barriers of entry, and a degree of international connectivity.

Online pro-Islamic State (IS) propaganda in Indonesia has reduced in quantity and quality since the fall of al-Baghdadi’s caliphate, but content has diversified and remains somewhat durable across small and mainstream platforms. Meanwhile, JI’s messaging increasingly resembles that of non-violent Islamist groups opposing the government, which could misconstrue activists for terrorists and potentially generate further support for violent resistance.

Looking further afield and towards the future, Dya Ayu Kartika described the dire conditions and perilous security environment faced by Indonesian nationals in the displacement camps of northeast Syria. Repatriating children is certainly complex, but may be the most effective way to address the humanitarian concerns while weakening Indonesian links to global terrorist networks.

Twenty years after 9/11, terrorism and ideological violence is now diffuse and diverse, with a variety of conspiracy-fuelled narratives and identity-based convictions spawning new forms of extremism. But despite this apparent diversity of extreme perspectives, recent empirical research has highlighted substantial commonalities across different ideologies. The Workshop’s second panel explored the evidence.

In a comprehensive meta-analysis of attitudes, intentions and behaviours among ideologically violent individuals, Dr Michael Wolfowicz found that psychological factors are more important ingredients for radicalisation than socio-economic or experiential conditions.

Breaking this down further, Professor Arie Kruglanski stressed the individual need for personal significance, which can be facilitated by exclusive networks and compelling narratives. Delving deeper still, Dr Leor Zmigrod’s research has identified certain neuro-psychological signatures often present among those with extremist convictions, such as cognitive rigidity and impulsiveness. This cutting-edge research could have important implications for disengagement and upstream prevention initiatives.

Panel three discussed the ramifications of recent developments in Afghanistan. Dr Cole Bunzel highlighted the threat posed by both IS-Khorasan (IS-K) and al-Qaeda (AQ) to the United States (US), but also outlined the two organisations’ respective constraints, in terms of local conflicts and decapitated leadership. IS-K has stepped up attacks over the past two years, but operations have become less deadly, according to Andrew Mines, as the group targets certain local communities and infrastructure in order to further destabilise the war-torn nation.

Regardless of the Taliban’s intentions with foreign extremist groups, Dr Amira Jadoon believes the new government’s limited protective security capacity may mean the nation becomes a ‘passive sponsor’ of terrorism. The concern for the wider region will be a possibly greater fusion between local extremist networks and transnational organisations, which may influence tactics and strategies moving forward.