Cem Peker's Resarch Homepage

I'm a postdoctoral researcher at New York University Abu Dhabi. I use empirical methods to study individual and collective wisdom, with applications in Behavioral Economics, Decision Making and Forecasting.

Email: cem.peker@nyu.edu , CV: click here

Publications

• Peker, C., & Wilkening, T. (2025). Robust recalibration of aggregate probability forecasts using meta-beliefs. International Journal of Forecasting, 41 (2), 613-630. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.09.005

• Peker, C. (2024). Incentives for self-extremized expert judgments to alleviate the shared-information problem. Decision, 11 (1), 150172. https://doi.org/10.1037/dec0000198

• Peker, C. (2023). Extracting the collective wisdom in probabilistic judgments. Theory and Decision, 94 (3), 467-501. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-022-09899-4

Work in Progress

• Peer betting to elicit unverifiable information (joint with Aurélien Baillon and Sophie van der Zee)(Working paper)

• Optimal linear aggregation of correlated expert judgments (Under review, Working paper)

• Expert decisions under pressure: Evidence from professional tennis (joint with John Wooders)(Abstract)

• Can we improve market forecasts with community predictions? (Abstract)

• Using prediction interval skewness to improve forecast accuracy (joint with Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor R.R. Jose, Jacob Rittich and Jack Soll)(Abstract)

• How do LLM agents respond to incentives in surveys?