Working Paper:

Combining a survey experiment with lifecycle models to evaluate pronatalist policies

J Goldstein, C Koulovatianos, J Li, C Schroeder 

We develop a three-step procedure for ex-ante policy evaluation. It combines (i) a vignette survey that randomizes out-of-sample policies (child allowances and external childcare subsidies) to infer fertility responses; (ii) two applied-theory lifecycle models estimated on external microdata; and (iii) the inserting of the randomized policies into the models' estimated fertility decision rules to obtain model-based fertility predictions for the vignette respondents, thus cross-validating these predictions with their fertility responses. These steps, applied to the United States and Germany, enable comparable out-of-sample policy evaluation across surveys and models, suggesting how to use vignettes as a compass for model specification. 

Genes, Cognitive Skills, and Preferences

D Graeber, T Maneein, C Schroeder

We examine the relationship between cognitive genetic endowments, measured via a validated polygenic index, and economic preferences. Using representative panel data linking genetic information to stated and revealed preferences, we find that higher cognitive PGI scores are associated with greater risk aversion, increased prosociality, and higher likelihood of holding financial assets, but show no consistent relationship with patience. These associations are robust to controls for family background and population stratification. Evidence suggests that genetic endowments and parental resources act as substitutes in preference formation. Our findings highlight genetic contributions to preference heterogeneity and intergenerational economic inequality. 

Distributions and Drivers of Lifetime Earnings

C Schroeder, M Beckmannshagen, Y Tchokni

We link administrative pension records with rich household survey data to study the distribution and drivers of lifetime labor earnings in Germany for birth cohorts from 1935 onward. Unlike previous studies, our data capture the entire workforce, including the self-employed, civil servants, and workers with interrupted careers, revealing that conventional sample restrictions overstate earnings and understate inequality. We document large gender gaps, rising male inequality, and declining female inequality across cohorts. We examine the association between lifetime earnings and a comprehensive set of factors spanning childhood conditions, education, and family formation, uncovering strongly gender-differentiated patterns that accumulate dynamically over the life course yet remain stable across cohorts.