Camila Galindo

I study the identification and estimation of treatment effects under multiple unordered options. Career paths, migration decisions, and schooling decisions are common examples of this setting. I analyze a general case of multivalued treatment effects where the identifying variation stems from discrete and continuous instruments. I discuss how to use conditional choice rules to estimate shares of compliers at different margins of choice and their treatment effects. I develop an empirical strategy consistent with this framework and apply it to assess the impact of childcare choice in Colombia on children’s development. In this setting, parents can choose between home care, small centers (12-15 children), or large centers (25 children per teacher). I exploit two different sources of exogenous variation: an experiment aimed at providing information and incentives to some households to switch to large centers and the geographical distance between the child’s home to the nearest center. On average, 22% of parents are induced to change their choices as the random offer and proximity vary. I document the effects of selection across heterogeneous groups, and I find positive but insignificant local average effects of small centers on cognitive, socio-emotional, and nutritional development relative to the unordered alternatives.

This paper estimates the heterogeneous labor market effects of enrolling in higher education short-cycle (SC) programs. Expanding access to these programs might affect the behavior of some students (compliers) in two margins: the expansion margin (students who would not have enrolled in higher education otherwise) and the diversion margin (students who would have enrolled in bachelor's programs otherwise). To quantify these responses, we exploit local exogenous variation in the supply of higher education institutions (HEIs) facing Colombian high school graduates in an empirical multinomial choice model with several instruments. According to our findings, the presence of at least one HEI specialized in SC programs in the vicinity of the student's high school municipality increases SC enrollment by 3.7-4.5 percentage points (40-50% of the SC enrollment rate). The diversion margin largely drives this effect. For female compliers, enrollment in SC programs increases formal employment relative to the next-best alternative. For male compliers, in contrast, it lowers formal employment and wages. These results should alert policymakers of the unexpected consequences of higher education expansionary policies.