March for science

COVID19: A GLOBAL CRISIS

Debdeep Ghosal*

Zero Response Time & Quick Action

The government authorities need to act strictly and fast when the slope of the virus spreading curve is low i.e the spreading is quite minimum or at least the reported cases in that particular country is very low. Otherwise it can start growing multiplicative in a logarithmic manner. Soon the curve will not follow a linear fashion. Here is where most of the western world failed so far. Despite of being a late start Chinese authorities and the government acted quite firm and harsh to contain the spreading and as a result we can see for the last 10-12 days China is having very very low number of new active cases out of its huge population, whereas even till the early March the picture was completely different when every day China reported at least 6-7k new reports or even more.

What went wrong in EU nations?

Europe owns the highest number of developed 1st world countries in the world. And here we are, today we the expats here sometimes think would it be better if we left our working European countries for a few weeks and waited in our motherlands in the subcontinents in South Asia? This is because few of the reasons below actually:

1. Despite having world class infrastructures and state of the art facilities, Europe didn’t know much about this virus before and underestimated the possibilities that it can spread here that easily right from far distant China.

2. Europe has the highest international travelers, diplomats, workers, tourists, students etc. in the world.

3. European people (mainly 26 Schengen countries) have been so far enjoying the hassle-free unlimited cross border travels inside those 26 countries since 1995 after the act was approved by the senate and governments. Switzerland joined this bit later in 2009. This gift of unlimited travel boosted the economy across Europe and also made a significant change in the life-styles of locals and foreign travelers. But at this stage of Corona pandemic, the exact same fact became a curse to the continent making restriction of the spreading almost impossible.

4. Europe has a high value of human rights. The government leaders don’t believe in imposing unnecessary conditions on normal daily lives of the locals unless there is really an emergency, so that the stability and equilibrium of the society remain undisturbed. Europe made a wrong guess in case of spreading of Coronavirus and couldn’t act spontaneously and failed to be strict declaring a state of emergency early enough.

5. The winter is not over yet here, summer is still far to reach here. If you consider most of the affected countries across the globe, none of them were having a summer time. Science tells us that most of the virus generally cannot live over 22-26 degree Celsius. Here is where India and other tropical countries can be less threatened by this pandemic compared to EU, USA, China, Japan even Iran.

Epidemic and Pandemic

Before going further, I think just as a naive reference here we need to understand the difference between ‘Epidemic’ and ‘Pandemic’. Epidemic is the outbreak of a disease inside a geographical barrier. Pandemic is larger, when this outbreak reaches many countries beyond boundaries (though the quantity is not confirmed).

Are we all a threat for Corona?

This virus is a threat to the people of two categories mainly:

1. Elderly people aged over 60.

2. Those who are already ill or under treatment.

In both cases Coronavirus chooses its victims who have the less immune power. Thus clearly it shouldn't be a problem for healthier or/and young adult people. But here a dangerous fact is hidden. The young people might not be affected directly or at least have far less chance of becoming the victims, but they can be carriers! There are many reports where it is said that this contagious disease has been spread from the younger people to their closed elder ones (aged friends or relatives basically) and causing deaths in fact.

For latest updates on the active cases (country wise) and all the relevant information related to Corona (e.g symptoms, precautions, incubation period, mortality rate etc.) please follow this website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Possible Measures

So far Indian government and authorities are doing fantastic jobs taking precautions and measures and increasing public awareness to stop the outbreak before it even begins in the entire subcontinent. WHO has also appraised India’s effort for this. But at the same time we cannot neglect the fact that- India is world’s 2nd most populous country and that too quite densely. In comparison to that 1.3 billion number of people a very tiny number of people have so far been tested out of which a tiny portion has a positive report. So, we must consider the fact that there is great possibility that there might be many hidden cases and we have to act accordingly and fast enough. For that I think these all can be of little help to contain the virus from spreading.

Mistakes of the Western worlds so far that should be a lesson for Indians

1. They started acting late to control the virus spreading.

2. Some people are still a bit relaxed and don’t think it can be that much of a problem, well they are missing the point - if not to them it can to others! So the full lock-down in the affected cities are not in effect yet. Here I see many of my Indian acquaintances are still behaving light and casual on the social media and in their practical life. They don’t need to be panicked of course, but need to be careful before it’s too late.

3. Many Italians were not serious and were reluctant in following the authority, they started realizing late though! Better late than never you know!

4. Emptying supermarkets and unnecessary stocking of food, sanitary stuff while creating the stupid panic is the last thing one needs to try.

Social impacts

All of the above mentioned points are based on internet research and our first hand experience living in Switzerland, one of the devastated countries by Corona so far. This small Alpine country has more than 2,200 cases while writing this report. Despite its super rich economy, stable social structure and state-of-the art infrastructure the country is simply failing to cope up with the crisis. The health system is on the brink of collapse as it is saturating soon due to the burden of the patients and pressure of new cases from its neighboring countries- Italy, France, Germany, Austria. The supply lines of food and other public sectors are crippling already. It has already made a loss of millions euro by cancelling major great events e.g BaselWorld, Geneva motor show, Basel carnival and many others. The economic growth of the whole EU has been expected to be ‘negative’ in the current financial year. We only hope India won’t march the same path.

Italy has already seen some of her worst days in the history, people are completely locked down in their houses. Spain, Switzerland, USA and many other nations are gonna follow the same path while already many of them are under state of emergency declaration. The Army is being prepared to deploy in case of further emergency. But still, Italians are having faith that everything will be fine again with their slogans “​ Andrà tutto bene ​ ” They have witnessed a social upliftment meanwhile. People are helping each other, they are adopting a newer lifestyle to keep themselves happy while stuck in the house, children started to understand the critical situation and the threat to their grandpas and grandmas and thus they are taking care of them. We have to consider the fact and once famous quote: “We should not let a good crisis waste” and let our mother nature heal herself without loosing faith in us. The vaccine will be out there soon.

A further Special Investigated report (by University of Basel, Switzerland) which is major update to this scenario. World’s economy is already in a great different shape in this first quarter and it is needless to say how awful it is becoming day by day. The direct impact caused by the virus can easily be seen from the medical stats and reports, whereas the indirect effect is like a hidden ‘ticking time-bomb’ e.g crashing share markets, collapsing healthcare units, bankrupting companies(hotels, airlines, tourism portals), crippling economy, rising unemployment and many more. They are all linked very finely. So, the news about Corona we are having on an everyday basis is just like a tip of the iceberg consisting of a much darker and challenging scenario.

NO HEALTHCARE SYSTEM IN THE WORLD can accommodate what happened in Bergamo (please see the Graph in the images attached). In Bergamo, Italy obituaries are filling the newspapers, whereas survivors mourn alone! You might pause a bit on these last two sentences, at least I did... SURPRISINGLY SHOCKING, isn’t it?

Now let's promote the Lodi example (or Wuhan et al)! New data indicate a stronger spread than originally thought: 6 out of 7 cases are "unidentified cases" (with mild diseases). This also means: 80% OF ALL CASES GET INFECTED FROM "UNIDENTIFIED CASES".

Your voice and action as a young visionary prudent can make a difference! Stand up wherever you see INADEQUATE coffee or entertainment breaks", "unimportant meetings", “gatherings” and other unnecessary get-together. because “Containing the Virus must come before everything else”; I think nothing can be more important and imperative than this, except the duties of medical units and biological-cum-medicinal researchers in this very moment of crisis.