Public festivities, crime and health: Evidence from Germany (with Katharina Drescher and Seraphin Schwarzbauer)
Abstract: Collective celebrations are a universal feature of social life, yet their social costs remain poorly understood. We provide systematic evidence on the effects of public festivities on crime and health using novel data on the near-universe of German folk festivals linked to administrative records on crime, road accidents, and hospitalizations. Exploiting variation in festival timing and location across municipalities, we find that crimes increase by 17 percent on festival days, with effects of up to 51 percent for assaults. We also document pronounced increases in road accidents and hospitalizations during festival periods. We provide evidence consistent with alcohol consumption as a key mechanism. For example, we find no meaningful change in the number of sexual offenses committed by sober suspects on festival days relative to non-festival days, while the number of sexual offenses involving alcohol-impaired suspects increases by 38 percent. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that crime-related externalities alone amount to roughly EUR 146 million per year in our study region, raising questions about public spending priorities and financing of safety expenditures.