No Deal

Food Retail Sector faces £9.3 Billion Bill for 'no deal' Brexit, according to Barclays. "Food retailers would be affected by a new average tariff of 27% on food and drink goods entering from the EU, significantly more than the 3-4% levy that would hit non-food products. Additionally, every consignment of goods from the EU will require a customs declaration which starts at a minimum of £50." Will somebody tell Tim Martin
Government farm payments in event of 'No deal' adds nothing new
The possibility of a 'no deal' is becoming more likely as we get closer to the March 29 2019 without a deal. 'Crashing out would mean that overnight, all the tariffs (2000 different taxes for agricultural products and 15,000 for processed foods), would still surround the EU, protecting their farm and food producers.
Whereas we now have the same tariff walls round all of us in EU. Coming out with 'no deal' means there would be tariff walls (for around 2000 farm-stuffs and 15000 food stuffs) on either side of the Channel/Irish Border. And that is just the tariffs - there are the non-tariff barriers (health) to consider too. Some say this is a good opportunity to do away with all these tariffs, but the impacts would be monumental and should be the subject of massive debate.
Welsh Show, Farm leaders lining up to warn about 'No deal'. “We might just accidentally fall off a really severe cliff edge because we do not have a deal,” Click graphic for more.
PM at the WELSH show promises "The UK will maintain environmental protections, safeguard animal welfare and support the production of high quality food" - for ENGLAND.

Premier foods spending £10 m on stockpiling ingredients for their Kipling Cakes, Bisto and Oxo. It said it was “shortly” to begin building up stocks of raw materials “in the absence of certainty over the arrangements for the UK’s departure from the EU”.

Hospital Food at risk from 'No deal'. Hospitals could run out of much of the imported food that goes into millions of patient meals in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the Department of Health and Social Care admitted in a letter to all NHS trusts in Englan, saying contingency plans are being put into operation. About 40% of food provided to in-patients was imported from the EU, much of it “just-in-time” .

No Problem

Many Brexiteers say that 'no deal' is not a problem as we can get on doing deals elsewhere. Not so easy - see Globalisation for our exclusion from £1.7 TRILLION's worth of trade.
Liam Fox says that a 'No Deal' is 60:40 likely (July 18). This is the same Liam Fox that said that a UK-EU deal would be 'one of the easiest in human history'' (July 17). This is part of new (July) PM plant to blame the EU for any trade deal breakdown.
CLA (Country Landowners Association) statement about government's 'No deal' advice that takes in organic produce, rural development funding and trading.
NFU says 'No deal' would be catastrophic' for British Agriculture
Government 'doomsday' report says: "The supermarkets in Cornwall and Scotland will run out of food within a couple of days" - and that is not the 'Armageddon scenario'.

Perfect Ingredients for food chaos


No deal' disastrous for food firms "A no-deal outcome would have a "seismic impact", said the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy committee. An EU free trade deal should be the number one priority, the MPs said. "To ensure the continued success of our food and drinks industry, the government must provide clarity and certainty on our future relationship with the EU and seek continued regulatory, standards, and trading alignment with the EU in the processed food and drink sector." ie stay in.
Perfect ingredients for national food crisis. Hallf our food "comes from abroad, and most of that is in the form of ingredients to be turned into the foods we eventually eat. It arrives just in time to be used, after which the finished goods are immediately dispatched. “I don’t think the government understands that,” the head of the Food & Drink Federation said. "We suggested to government months ago that we should talk about contingency planning, but we haven’t yet had the conversation.”
In Jay Raynor's article Will our cupboards be bare?, he quotes Tim Lang quoting a senior adviser to a senior minister that currently the best notion the government had for dealing with a hard Brexit was to abandon all checks and regulation of food coming into the UK, with huge ramifications for both quality and safety. “That’s not taking back control. It’s abandoning it.”
Picture on left by Romas Foord.
Raab's solution is to find other countries to move food from. But "For the US to replace the combined food imports from the other nine of the top 10, would require a vast food flotilla and logistics operation exceeding that of the 1940-45 Atlantic convoys.” See Report. Jay Raynor says "It is a dereliction of duty and an abnegation of the basic responsibilities of good government, on a truly staggering scale. Those involved should hang their heads in shame. "
There is, according to the Guardian, "something truly ridiculous about the government preparing to stock up for a hard Brexit on 29 March 2019 – facing the prospect of wartime shortages of supplies, not least of the vast quantities of food we import daily from “the Continent” – when it is not 1914 or 1939 and the only war we are preparing for is a war on ourselves."
New Brexit Secretary Raab (July 23) says he hasn't said the government is stockpiling food - just making sure supermarkets and maufacturers 'could be made' to have enough to kae sure shelves are not emptied. "Ministers are to unveil emergency plans to make sure that Britain has “adequate” food supplies in the event of a chaotic no-deal departure from the EU" said the Brexit secretary.
British food stores ridicule idea of Brexit stockpiling plans, saying "they have had no contact with the government about stockpiling". One supermarket chief said: "the government’s position demonstrated “complete naivety” about the way the sector worked."

Run on food


Brexit could mean a return to rationing Britain is facing the prospect of food rationing because of shortages as a result of Brexit, Prof Tim Lang in a bombshell report has warned. He says insufficient supplies after the UK leaves the European Union could see the government forced to adopt a measure last used during the Second World War and the post-war era. Lang said the UK is currently less prepared for rationing than it was in 1939 as planning had started three years earlier by Sir William Beveridge ahead of the build-up to the conflict. The Government is “sleepwalking” into a post-Brexit future of insecure, unsafe and increasingly expensive food supplies,
Raab reveals reality of 'no deal' by admitting stock piling food. Government will have to handle possibility of panic buying."The onus on stockpiling will fall on retailers, just as the bulk of no deal preparation will actually be done by private agencies. But the revelation is in reality no revelation at all: the United Kingdom is nowhere near being self-sufficient in food and in the event of a collapse in Britain’s trading arrangements, food, medicines and other vital supplies would run out very quickly indeed. " May says to 'to take comfort' from plans to stockpile food as “we don’t know what the outcome is going to be”. " But where are we going to put it, with so little warehouse space?
Head of Premier Foods, the Kipling cake manufacturer says: "“Smart companies will have worked out where the pinch points are with ingredients and be building up inventory". The head of Food & Drink Federation says food manufacturers have two main concerns. " One is getting product in through ports around the Brexit date, so that you can continue to manufacture. The other concern is — what will happen to the price of ingredients? “If there’s no deal, you’d expect sterling to tank, so people are trying to hedge against those concerns by storing ingredients like spices that can be kept in dry storage, as well as chilled and frozen food, although there is a shortage of chilled and frozen warehousing in the south of England.”

These are the consequences of the EU and UK failing to reach a deal for businesses:


The UK becomes a third country, with no preferential deal for customs purposes or for VATLicenses and approvals issued by the UK are no longer recognised by the EUCompanies based in the EU can no longer operate in the EU as a member state and need to either move business or establish a representative in an EU country (many vegetable farms have two centres of operation - one in UK and other in say Spain to provide throughout the year)UK professional qualifications are not recognised by the EUThe UK stops being part of EU systems – like the aviation area or the energy market

No Deal for Farm & Food:


What a 'No Deal' means to farm and food producers.
1 The EU subsidies will be 'up for grabs'. We'll leave both CAP and Fisheries policy.
2 Leaving the Single Market means harmonisation standards do not have to be followed - unless you want to export into Europe. It will mean border checks on food over 'non-tariff' barriers - those to do with health and safety of food AND, 'Country of origin'.
3 Leaving the Customs Union means stepping off the tariff cliff designed to protect farm and food producers. We would have tariff barriers checks - ie pay taxes to EU Customs.
Depending which way the government goes, this could mean either 1) maintaining the same tariffs ourselves for time being. This means having tariff walls both ways across the English Channel/Irish border
2) Doing away with all the 2000 & 15000 food related tariffs, so food and farmers not protected at all from cheap imported food from all over the world, That would decimate rural economies