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James Hoffman: [from his journal] Empathy with the land. This we learn in childhood. The land has changed. The biosphere turned; has become unfamiliar and erratic. I would say eventual, but nature is indifferent to us. We fight for our survival, not nature's. There's a fierceness in the world that we never felt before. Something is being unleashed in the softening permafrost. Why do we despise the world that gave us life? Why wouldn't the world survive us, like any organism survives a virus. The world that we grew up in is changed forever. There is no way home. Is there something beyond science that is happening out here? What if the very thing we were here to pull out of the ground were to rise willingly - confront us. What would that look like? What if this is the last winter, before the collapse? And hope dies.

We forecast lower average natural gas bills for U.S. consumers that heat their homes primarily with natural gas this winter heating season (November 1 to March 31) compared with last winter. The lower residential winter natural gas expenditures we forecast in the 2023 Winter Fuels Outlook supplement to our October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) are due, mainly, to lower natural gas prices. The wholesale U.S. natural gas spot price at the national benchmark Henry Hub started last winter heating season averaging $5.66 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) in November. This November, we expect the Henry Hub price to be 45% lower than last year, averaging $3.12/Mcf.

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The Gas Winter Outlook, Review and Consultation reports are designed to inform the gas industry of our view of security of supply for the gas system for the winter ahead, to review the previous winter and compare this to what was said in our forecasts.

Britain continues to benefit from diverse and flexible sources of gas. We have sufficient capability to meet peak demand, and we forecast that overall GB winter demand (excluding exports to Europe) will be comparable to last year. We have illustrated in the Gas Winter Outlook how the NTS could be balanced under a range of credible demand profiles. In all of these scenarios, and as in recent winters, GB will be dependent on continued substantial imports of LNG and Norwegian gas. In our cold winter scenario, GB will likely also require imports from the EU through the two gas interconnectors.

Last winter, Central Park recorded its first measurable snowfall on Dec. 23, although it was only .2 inches. We're already more than two weeks behind that and more than a month behind the average first snow (Dec. 7).

Between Oct. 1, 2018, and April 1, 2019, 37.7% of the managed honey bee population -- colonies kept by commercial beekeepers -- declined, which is 7 percentage points more than the same time frame during the 2017-2018 winter, according to preliminary data from the Bee Informed Partnership, a nonprofit associated with the University of Maryland.

Other reasons for the loss in population are loss of habitat and poor management practices, such as moving bees through the frigid Rocky Mountains during their winter journey to California, McArt said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced that it has suspended data collection for its Honey Bee Colonies survey due to budgetary reasons, just weeks after researchers reported that nearly 40% of managed honey bee colonies in the country were lost over the past winter.

A new study challenges a commonly accepted explanation that a "sudden stratospheric warming" caused the unusually cold weather over the U.S. early last year, a view which was widely reported in the media and discussed among scientists at the time.

For the new study, published last week in the journal Nature Communications, a team of scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) used a sophisticated Earth system model to analyze the sudden stratospheric warming that occurred on Jan. 5, 2021 and its potential impacts. Using a new method to assess causality, they found that while the subsequent weather did indeed match the expected pattern, the sudden stratospheric warming itself was not likely the cause.

During the Northern Hemisphere winter, when the North Pole tilts away from the Sun and remains shrouded in darkness, a frigid mass of cold air forms in the stratosphere above the pole. The cold air is locked into place by a jet stream called the stratospheric polar vortex.

The Final Report includes 28 formal recommendations that seek to prevent a recurrence of the failures experienced during the February 2021 cold weather event. These recommendations include important revisions to the NERC Reliability Standards surrounding generator winterization and gas-electric coordination.

Jon Boats are used to traverse areas of shallow water. Sacramento Metropolitan Fire District Captain Parker Wilbourn said his department purchased those boats for water rescue events, and that planning paid off after a dozen atmospheric rivers led to devastating flooding in the town of Wilton, east of Elk Grove, last January.

New modeling from the National Marine Fisheries Service shows that, if the State Water Board fails to act, and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation operates Shasta Dam as it plans to this year, about 80% of endangered winter run salmon will die from temperature-dependent mortality alone:

In the second modeling run shown above, releases from Shasta are reduced to 6,000 cfs in June and held there through August. Reducing those releases increases the amount of cold water that is retained in Shasta and allows that water to be used to cool river temperatures when winter run chinook eggs and fry need it to survive, from June to the end of September. That is why temperature-dependent mortality estimates fall to 50% in this run. This approach also maintains more cold water in Shasta reservoir at the end of September that can be used to help cool fall run eggs and fry in October, if air temperatures remain warm, and increases end of September storage to 1.4 million acre feet, providing some insurance in case 2022 is also dry.

A bird's-eye view of snowy conditions in a business complex south of Dallas-Fort Worth Airport (near HWY 360) in Texas the week of February 14, 2021. A historic winter storm hit most of Texas and brought brutally cold temperatures and crippling ice and snow to the state. (Image credit: NOAA National Weather Service, Dallas-Fort Worth Office)

Meteorological winter (December through February) was quite mild and dry across the contiguous U.S. The average temperature was 33.6 degrees F, 1.4 degrees above average, placing Winter 2021 in the warmest third of the winter record. Maine had its third-warmest winter; California had its 12th warmest.

Combined with people using less energy anyway due to higher prices, the sobriety plan cut electricity consumption in December by almost 10% compared with previous years. This varied by sector and ranged from 12% in industry to 7% in homes, cafs, shops and restaurants. Meanwhile, when adjusted for temperature differences, natural gas consumption was 17% lower than the previous winter.

Last fall and winter, the U.S. went through one of the most severe flu seasons in recent memory. It was driven by a kind of flu that tends to put more people in the hospital and cause more deaths, particularly among young children and the elderly.

And that one weekend of winter fun will soon turn into many, as snowmaking will begin once temperatures allow. Trollhaugen aims to open runs around the first week of November if the weather cooperates; last year they were able to open a couple weeks early.

"Right now there [are] three mites per hundred [bees]," says Dennis vanEngelsdorp, associate professor of entomology at the University of Maryland and president of the Bee Informed Partnership, which studies bee survival rates. That's a high rate of mites, vanEngelsdorp says: "If this were September and you were seeing that number, you'd expect the hive to die" during the lean months of winter.

Honeybees crawl through a modern-day hive. This past winter saw the most dramatic losses of managed honeybee colonies in 13 years, according to researchers. Olivia Falcigno/NPR hide caption

Still, she says the results are troubling, if unsurprising. Stressed, sick bees in close proximity are likely to die during the winter months. And bees face increasing levels of stress. Until all parties work together to address the sources of that stress, she says, steep winter die-offs will continue.

On the open seas, the shipping trade is primarily governed by the International Maritime Organization and other United Nations groups. Among their primary tools is the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) treaty, originally signed in 1914. It was last amended in 2016 with new rules on weighing of containers, intended to lessen spills.

After the Svendborg Maersk lost 517 containers in the Bay of Biscay in 2014, French officials ordered the company to map sunken containers to identify commercial fishing hazards. And a settlement following the 2011 wreck of the MV Rena in New Zealand, which also caused an oil spill, included cleanup of tiny plastic beads that still wash ashore today.

Those beads, like the Legos, computer monitors and Garfield phones, hint at the unknown contribution of container spills to marine plastic pollution, which is increasingly understood to harm birds, whales, fish and other animals through both ingestion and entanglement.

FEBRUARY 8, 2020. LAKE HURON. In Oscoda, Michigan, Elena Mackenzie studies Lake Huron from one of her vacation rental cottages. Thick slabs of ice around the lake usually protect the shore from storms. But last winter was warm, and waves eroded the coastal property, causing thousands of dollars in damage.

DECEMBER 31, 2019. LAKE SUPERIOR. A surfer catches a wave on an ice-free Lake Superior outside of Duluth, Minnesota, on the last day of 2019. The lake had one of its least ice covered years ever, with just about 20 percent cover by the end of February. Lake Superior is the second fastest warming lake in the world; its water is warming up more quickly than the air around it. 2351a5e196